14 Year Old Forex Trader's Lessons

its just so easy, beautiful demand, i wouldve bought there with no worries, and being going up for 2-3 months easy pips.

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ooh im so happy, this thread is so great!

true true, i thought it was easy to control my emotions, me myself.. it turns out to be difficult and challenging..

thank for the link highlander..
i've bookmarked it, going to download the vid soon.. many thanks
i need to know myself, self analysis, gain self confidence, control negative emotion, build up optimism
wow
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awesome, this is the difference being involved in this thread and being a lurker..

@Highlander,

i would love to watch those videos, only if my internet wasn't so slow on weekend nights (low bandwidth) to buffer the youtube videos. I don't know if you were here, but one of my 10 rules of living my life, is you are the fault. you lose, your fault, you win, your fault. You are the cause, whats the effect?

you would be surprised how different you can be in a state of emotional chaos, and how desperate man can get to achieve something illogical.
@Sri,
take to hand our advice, this is from personal experience, and i honestly wouldn't have my live account blown if it weren't for my destructive ego. Always trade with logic, and control your emotions. Easy to read, difficult to apply.

Technical Prediction on EUR.USd. i have set my analysis, but this is a prediction if the probabilities on my analysis doesn't fall into pieces aka my backup plan.

levels can be used over and over again, until it is diminished - pegasus.

So here is my strategy for the ranging market possibilities tommorow, and can be seen clearly on the M15. On the h1, since it is ranging, bbands signal this as a "no trade zone" aka no trends or breakouts happening. no chart patterns as of now, nice double top previously, now another possible dagger/wedge/ bear flag, but unlikely. no divergence on hourly chart, so the possible bullish returns are possibly on next couple of days. Bulls might probably take advantage of the negative USD fundamentals coming up such as the home sales, or the core durable goods. But with the german ifo business climate coming soon, there might be more bearish momentum: maybe 50-60 pips. Now im seeing the ranging as the accumulation for the momentum. Bullish predicted move as impulse for even greater momentum, and even more powerful bearish force after the impulse.

careful with that supply its all nicely used up

heres something new.

how does one know if a s/d level is 'used up'.

do you have any examples?

been through it in my room all the time, its hard to say without showing you, but a area needs to be newly created by looking at price action last time in the area, once a area is created, and it gets touched then supply is used, more times its touched then the more sell orders get filled there, therefore making less sell orders to be filled next time it gets there

Okay, thank you.

USD/JPY analysis :

Recently, BoJ said that they may not be able to lower their currency like Switzerland did ( because of many reason like deflation...). Even with that statement, Im still bullish for USD/JPY and here why :

1) for the pas 3 week that pair didnt really move. it went sidesway, while USD went strongly bullish, which shown that this pair is clearly oversold.

2) Too many people where bullish on the yen. The new safe even cannot be yen since the gold lost value because of the USD strength. Sooner or later, people will realize that Dollar is the new safe heaven and not the yen.

If one the next NFP US have good results, I will let my long position on USD/JPY open, if not I might rethink about it. i put my stop loss at 70 and no take profit since . Who how far the price might reach if investor start selling the yen.

...and the same holds true for demand. Therefore if there are less buy orders on the demand line than sell orders on the supply line, the buy orders will evaporate first and the price will break to the downside to the next nearest demand line and the process starts all over again.

Unfortunately we do not have access to the data which tells us how much supply and demand there is out there and at what price levels... which really sucks. LOL

To those interested in Ichimoku, price action has pierced the cloud on monthly chart, and weekly chart. Such aggresive movements, im talking about possible 1000 pip moves to the down. So anyone who longs should have a caution about your VaR.

To oscillators fans: macd shows no divergence except on h4. take that to caution for shorts. stochastics still showing the dipping motion to the oversold level on monthly, weekly, and on daily almost showing buy signal. ADX, showing no trending moves, but i find it quite 'late'.



In my honest perspective, price action would make a retracement to at least 1.3700s.

Just made few more ratios, and it would take possibly few more days for that to happen.

For anyone who left long positions open over the weekend, I believe you are out of luck.

and to those who had short positions open over the weekend, get ready to cash in.

The eur/usd is currently gapped down by 275 pips.

Never mind.. it's back up to 1.34 so that's only a 100 or so pip gap. Must have been a spike or a data error.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?fr...o=USD&view=12h

He makes some key points during the interview which i think is important to highlight.

Remember that the market is moved by order flow or supply and demand imbalances. These orders or imbalances are caused by people, or computers programmed by people. And remember everyone who is involved in the markets is trying to do the same thing- make money! (except perhaps hedgers)

So the market is moved by people, trying to make money.

When you place a trade you require these people (or computers) to come in to push the market higher or lower in order for you to profit, and not only that come in at a worse price to push it all the way to your target.

Although this may seem obvious, it is important to remember this when trading, because if these people (ie. the majority of the money) are not looking at the market in the same way you are, your analysis, however good you think it is, is irrelevant!

Now because we cannot predict how others see the market, it is impossible for us to predict exactly what the market will do, this means we will have losses. That's where good mm is needed to save you.

The trouble with the losses (and the wins) is they occur on a random basis, and there will be streaks of winners and losers.

This poses a big problem psychologically for traders to deal with. It would be much easier if the results were consistent, but they aren't.

For this reason its important not to look at the result of 2 or 3 trades (especially losses) and say this strategy is useless. You need a larger sample of trades to be-able to understand how good (or bad) your method is.

Now im not going to get into maths and statistics as its not my strength, im trying to explain how this affects your mind.

to cut a long story short, the random streaks of wins and losses will have you on a roller coaster of emotions, from despair to euphoria. These emotions are what cause trading errors. Despair could cause you to give up just at the point when your trading method is about to give you win after win after win, and the euphoria could make you too confident and have you trading when you shouldn't.

It all goes back to the fact that you do not know who is going to come into the market, where they will come in and what direction and size of position the will take.

so its important to look trading result over a series of trades and not at 2 or 3 or even 10 trades as it means little. And also that the outcomes of trades are random, and unconnected in anyway to the previous or the next trade

In his book .Trading in the Zone' Mark Douglas suggests trading in sample sizes (batches).

Basically you find the method you want to use and then take at the very least 20 trades, using this method, don't change it or stop using it until you have done at least 20 trades.(demo this!) At this point you sit down and analyse the results and the decisions you made (this is where a trading diary and records are important)

Remember when you criteria for entering the market is present, there is no point trying to figure out if it will be a winner or a loser, again because you don't know what other market participants are going to do.

So to summarize-

- Realize that the market is moved by people, and you need them to move the market for you

- Find a method you wish to try

- identify when the market creates an entry signal

- when the signal is there, don't hesitate in pulling the trigger.

- take the signal at least 20 times or more, then analyze the results, don't give up on it during this period.

- tweak and improve the system as required, and repeat the excercise.

I understand some may disagree with this, and if you don't try it, it doesn't matter. But hopefully it helps you see how the market exists and how and edge (setup with a positive expectancy) works. That is, it puts the odds in your favour over a series of trades, not on an individual one.

I hope this is not to deep, I've tried to keep it as clear and simple as i could, Bu I think its very important at the start to realize what moves the market and how your edge or entry method works in relation to this. When you realize this, you will learn better what to expect, and it wont be such a roller coaster of emotions and changing strategy every five seconds.


If you get round to looking at that interview you will recognise a lot of what I said, i have listened to it many times and know a lot of it off by heart lol!

As always,

IMHO!

h2

buma, congratulations on your newest template - very nice and clean!

Good Luck, bro!

Good for you! We have to be flexible!

Some traders feel kind of ashamed when they say the word "scalping". I don't think there's anything to be ashamed of: you either make money or you don't make money.

Exactly!

Check out what Forex Crunch has to say about the Euro this week...

http://www.forexcrunch.com/eurusd-ou...ptember-26-30/

Very basic analysis. Not really that convincing, but somehow, more often than not, they seem to call it correctly.

Supply level looks used up, but not so.... its ranging for now, just entered with a short looking to "range".

any other ideas

The supply level that held.

ADD: Im not seeing a weekend gap

True gaps are only in the stock market. If we see a gap in forex it is usually due to your brokers.With that being said, since thousands of retail traders see a physical gap on their chart even tho it isnt a true gap, they trade it and the imaginary gap is usually filled.