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14 Year Old Forex Trader's Lessons

  • #541
  • Sep 25, 2011 7:55am Sep 25, 2011 7:55am
Im loving that last sentence. Good prediction. I honestly believe that the US is also in a mess, but in a better mess. I heard that with the current debt ceiling, they can 'survive' to 2014. What also makes risk-averse investors stay away from the eurozone is their heavy debt in not only one country, but in more than two countries. Spain, Italy, Greece... long list. Germany is one of the last hopes for Greece. So watch out for any decisions on Germany. US is world-reserve currency, and world's strongest economy. They just go back to economics 101, and see what's best for them. Which is to be risk-averse, and invest in the greenback.

oh yeah big-boys, not meaning to bring back ichimoku, but heres the analysis for the monthly. you see that thin-thin-thin cloud?! well price has just penetrated through critical level of support. tells a lot of the economy of the world huh? im seeing next long term support in possibly 4 months at the last hammer. if it pierces that, its in for serious shit. we are in critical level for this pair. Kijun support blue line, is right on the current monthly. We'll keep updated with fundamental analysis to analyze the situation see if support of this critiical level holds.

My best bet is to put yourself in an investor's mind. would you invest the euro now if you had millions of dollars to do so? if you already are, are you going to liquidate your position soon? creating a panic selloff?

My analysis. Hybrid Analysis.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: monthly action.gif Size: 47 KB
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #542
  • Sep 25, 2011 7:58am Sep 25, 2011 7:58am
Quoting mla
Here I am.

This my preparation work for tomorrow. On the bigger time frame I draw my levels on weekly, daily, 4 hours and 60 minutes. But my main focus is on the 5 minutes tf. I have a few tricks in the bag and I am trying to learn some more and I will be happy to share them with you if you wish. I focus on intraday and learning some scalps.

cheers
mla
similar thoughts here, we're in for some accumulation (ranging) before anything occurs. Good position for scalps. Just be in for the fundamentals. The big news. You see trichet speak, tune in. Bernanke, tune in. Big people, big names, tune in. Even the small thigns can help. Analysts, try to tune in to economists around the world. we all know the popular decision: default Greece. Find the unpopular decision: it is the most unexcpected, and the one overlooked. So LOOK AT THOSE EVERYONE.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #543
  • Sep 25, 2011 8:00am Sep 25, 2011 8:00am
Quoting bumapatria
similar thoughts here, we're in for some accumulation (ranging) before anything occurs. Good position for scalps. Just be in for the fundamentals. The big news. You see trichet speak, tune in. Bernanke, tune in. Big people, big names, tune in. Even the small thigns can help. Analysts, try to tune in to economists around the world. we all know the popular decision: default Greece. Find the unpopular decision: it is the most unexcpected, and the one overlooked. So LOOK AT THOSE EVERYONE.
mla
"The Heart is the hub of all dances; go there and chill out"
  • #544
  • Sep 25, 2011 8:18am Sep 25, 2011 8:18am
I will check back in later
REQUESTING NO VOUCHES.Vouches are useless.
  • #545
  • Sep 25, 2011 8:38am Sep 25, 2011 8:38am
Quoting bumapatria
hahhaahaha lol... guys despite the jokes,

i need people to show how they trade. We can become pretty tight if we all come from different trading backgrounds.
heres the list of people needing to show their struts:
Highlander2, Piptrapper, TedgeUK, PoundTrader, Link, Srikandi, Sekambek,
ADD: Tilf, Jeremy WS
if you consider yourself new, please show what you like to trade with.
This is a thread of knowledge. Share knowledge, the more you'll learn
you have my undying love and dignity, i feel so welcome here..
buma, im so green in forex thingy, my first encounter with forex was 5 days ago.. what do you expect from "5 days trader?"
to be frank, im not graduated yet from babypips *soon will be graduated, im preparing my speech*
i trade with "no deposit account", free stuff i know
i use pivot point, fibo, and s/r with a little knowledge about it..
There is definitely a lot to learn. I have a loooong road ahead... and i want to learn, i mean it


Valar Dohaeris
  • #546
  • Sep 25, 2011 9:13am Sep 25, 2011 9:13am
Quoting Pegasus54
Excellent and thorough post. On the longer term basis (monthly) I am looking at exactly what you mentioned. I also remember the eurusd prior to 2008. Those were the days where a 20 pip sl was sufficient. Things have certainly changed and the eurusd has become one of the more volatile pairs and requires focus, extensive analysis on the bigger picture and extreme patience and money management skills.
Thanks Pegasus54,

Yes those were in fact the good easy days. However, I need something to keep me intellectually challenged on a daily basis otherwise I get bored and lose interest. So all this volatility and chaos does the trick for me.

I am looking forward to see how it all unfolds

Regarding my post, I shudder to think how it would be received by some certain person we both know in the EURUSD thread. LOL

Peace
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #547
  • Edited 9:54am Sep 25, 2011 9:32am | Edited 9:54am
Hi guys, this is going back to basic analysis, i dont know how this works, perhaps astrology has something to do with this.. i just looked over at the monthly seeing normal big uptrends, downtrends. Im seeing something here.

this is just analysis, and possibly using the variable of time into the formula.

im trying to see what is the average time of monthly trends to retrace.

im looking at a deadly pattern, that may be the key to the next big move, but i dont know how to put it. Im putting the basic fibonnaci retracement but figured out that maybe its all just a cycle. I dont know what to make of it though. You will see the key numbers on these charts.

im posting usd/cad monthly, eur/usd monthly charts.
im really confused now.

heres my hypothesis: Fibo Retracements occur with time.
Result:... i dont know waht to say.

Ratios are from trending periods, divided by retracement time.

Ratios are almost dead accurate on the first digit.

if my prediction on the cad is right, then it would certainly drop.
Eu.. no predictions...
Any thoughts on this?

ADD: better pics are at bottoom, i deleted pics here.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #548
  • Sep 25, 2011 9:38am Sep 25, 2011 9:38am
Quoting Srikandi
you have my undying love and dignity, i feel so welcome here..
buma, im so green in forex thingy, my first encounter with forex was 5 days ago.. what do you expect from "5 days trader?"
to be frank, im not graduated yet from babypips *soon will be graduated, im preparing my speech*
i trade with "no deposit account", free stuff i know
i use pivot point, fibo, and s/r with a little knowledge about it..
There is definitely a lot to learn. I have a loooong road ahead... and i want to learn, i mean it

hey srikandi! same here im only 2 months into this thing.. You're only 5 days old in the business and come across this type of knowledge? Well, have many learning days ahead of you, cause you're going to learn a lot. We are all here to learn, and teach one another. a cycle.

babypips... nice site huh?
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #549
  • Sep 25, 2011 9:48am Sep 25, 2011 9:48am
Quoting Srikandi
been lurking for this thread, and create an account just to get involve in here..
hope you wont get mad for hijacking your thread with my questions later..

this thread really hot,
No man, you are welcome, post your analysis here and share every thing you can. You might teach us few thing like we might also teach you few thing too .
  • #550
  • Sep 25, 2011 9:53am Sep 25, 2011 9:53am
Quoting Link
No man, you are welcome, post your analysis here and share every thing you can. You might teach us few thing like we might also teach you few thing too .
thats the spirit!

heres the deadly pattern in better image.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: deadly eu.gif Size: 31 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: deadly cad.gif Size: 33 KB
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #551
  • Edited 10:13am Sep 25, 2011 10:00am | Edited 10:13am
Quoting bumapatria
hey srikandi! same here im only 2 months into this thing.. You're only 5 days old in the business and come across this type of knowledge? Well, have many learning days ahead of you, cause you're going to learn a lot. We are all here to learn, and teach one another. a cycle.

babypips... nice site huh?
babypips has nice pics and jokes

i know.. i barely know anything about forex, the first time i read this thread i feel like i come into different planet..
i trying to understand bit by bit, my short term goal is to be graduated from babypips,
i've downloaded the s/d video btw, im going to watch it tomorrow, need 50min to be devoted to that vid..
do you have any suggestion to me? what i have to learn deeper first?

Quoting Link
No man, you are welcome, post your analysis here and share every thing you can. You might teach us few thing like we might also teach you few thing too .
oh thank you Link..
sure sure, i will..
and feel free to correct me and advice me, I need that

___________-
im going to do my homework, *opens book*
see you soon
Valar Dohaeris
  • #552
  • Sep 25, 2011 10:01am Sep 25, 2011 10:01am
Quoting bumapatria
heres my hypothesis: Fibo Retracements occur with time.
Result:... i dont know waht to say.

Ratios are from trending periods, divided by retracement time.

Ratios are almost [b]dead accurate on the first digit.
There is definitely something to be said about retrace time versus trend time.
My view is that there is noting astrological about it. It is just market psychology driven by fear, greed and a balance of the two... or if you wish, technical oscillations.

Lets say the market is trending upwards, that trend will have both long term and short term trades in it and it will keep building over time because the fundamentals support the sentiment to go long. This could take say 1, 2 or 3 years. Let say 2.

Now the price starts to retrace for many reasons. It could be that the currency is overbought in the long term or it cold be that the underlying economic outlook does not support further increase in the currencies value. Another possible reason is perhaps the currency has gained too much strength against that nations trading partners and it is hurting their export market.

Whatever the reason, once it reaches that point where it is stabilizing or reversing, the first few legs that lead it to the 38.2% retracement will almost always run faster than the trend because this is where people cash in and once it starts, it becomes a run to secure the value of their current positions.

It becomes an opportunity to buy the other end of the currency pair at a much cheaper price. It is a fear that if they do not cash in now, they will lose half or more of their gains. When growth slows, it's time to step away and go in search of other opportunities. This all happens at the same time which explains why the retrace runs faster when the conviction of their positions fade.

By the way, you also see this behavior in a continuation after a shallow retrace.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #553
  • Sep 25, 2011 10:04am Sep 25, 2011 10:04am
Thats the what. good observations and the how.

why do the fibonacci sequence numbers work in nature, life, even forex?!

its amzing.

just something to notice for everyone.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #554
  • Sep 25, 2011 10:06am Sep 25, 2011 10:06am
Quoting Srikandi
babypips has nice pics and jokes

i know.. i barely know anything about forex, the first time i read this thread i feel like i come into different planet..
i trying to understand bit by bit, my short term goal is to be graduated from babypips,
i've downloaded the s/d video btw, im going to watch it tomorrow, need 55min to be devoted to that vid..
do you have any suggestion to me? what i have to learn deeper first?
Right now, you have to learn more about yourself. KNOW yourself. Don't tell me you do, because you don't. I didn't know myself when i was in a state of fear and greed.

Know yourself, know how you react, control negative emotions, always start positive, stay optimistic, trade with no emotions.

that i guess is the holy grail. YOURSELF. YOU ARE THE HOLY GRAIL
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #555
  • Sep 25, 2011 10:08am Sep 25, 2011 10:08am
Quoting bumapatria
@deankenny21.

im seeing possible meet at 25 my age. or 18 once i move out of HS.
thats 4-10 years from now.

see how wed look like.

the thread would lose its name
Or we can simply call it : young investor thread, I have another friend on this forum who is also young too. We could ask to one of the senior trader here to creat a thread on the interactive thread section for us .
  • #556
  • Sep 25, 2011 10:11am Sep 25, 2011 10:11am
Quoting Link
Or we can simply call it : young investor thread, I have another friend on this forum who is also young too. We could ask to one of the senior trader here to creat a thread on the interactive thread section for us .
Hmm... or we could use this. Im totally fine as this being 'interactive' in trading hours.
totally.

its better here imho.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #557
  • Sep 25, 2011 10:19am Sep 25, 2011 10:19am
Quoting bumapatria
...why do the fibonacci sequence numbers work in nature, life, even forex?!...
Ha Ha. You got me going now.

I am not very well versed as to how Fibonacci numbers work in nature but I do know that leaves on a tree are sometimes shaped with contours that conform to fibo nums. Regardless, those numbers are a function of nature and present in cellular structure. They are probably a basis of natural engineering.

However, in Forex, Fibonacci number are not what move the markets. They only apply to Forex (and other markets) because traders apply Fibonacci to their trading strategy

To make a simplistic explanation, lets say a retrace is approaching the 38.2% fib line. Traders perceive that there will be some resistance or support (depending which way price is heading), therefore they adjust their positions to cash in on some gains or load up in the opposite direction and thereby collectively cause the sup/res they perceived.

BINGO! Perception becomes reality.

By the way, the same holds true for daily pivots, moving averages, oscillators, and all other technical indicators out there.

In a nutshell, if nobody traded the markets with technical indicators, then those same technical indicators would be totally useless.

Peace
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #558
  • Sep 25, 2011 10:25am Sep 25, 2011 10:25am
@piptrapper,

haha yeah, thats the truth i was looking for!

i know that it doesnt run markets lol.

People run the markets. Psychology run the markets. Greed, and Fear at different levels run the markets.



its still off-market so here is my favorite song: im 14, this is post hardcoore donno if u dudes like it. If u get to listen to it, it has nice lyrics: To Plant A Seed.

Inserted Video
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #559
  • Sep 25, 2011 10:34am Sep 25, 2011 10:34am
Quoting bumapatria
...its still off-market so here is my favorite song: im 14, this is post hardcoore donno if u dudes like it. If u get to listen to it, it has nice lyrics: To Plant A Seed.
I gotta admit it's not my kind of music (I am not 14 lol), but the lyrics I did understand are nice as you said.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #560
  • Sep 25, 2011 10:44am Sep 25, 2011 10:44am
Quoting bumapatria
Right now, you have to learn more about yourself. KNOW yourself. Don't tell me you do, because you don't. I didn't know myself when i was in a state of fear and greed.

Know yourself, know how you react, control negative emotions, always start positive, stay optimistic, trade with no emotions.

that i guess is the holy grail. YOURSELF. YOU ARE THE HOLY GRAIL
I hesitate to post this but psychology will play a huge part in success. Market analysis is one thing, and its great to become a good analyst, but turning analysis into trading profits is another thing entirely, this is what makes a successful trader.

Like you say here you must know yourself, this is done through self analysis, rather than market analysis. You will need to know when you are in a mindset that is conducive to profiting in the markets. This is especially important if you have to make decisions, rather than following a preset, exact set of rules.

Here is an interview with mark douglas which helped me a lot a couple of years ago I believe this is an easy to understand set of videos which will help you learn about how you look at the market and why you make the mistakes you do. It is certainly easier to digest than some of the books out there.

If you have not been trading long you may not understand some of this but for those who have tried it should find benefit from it. If its too much just bookmark it and check it out in a few months.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...17#post4378017
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