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  • #21,801
  • Sep 23, 2011 10:55am Sep 23, 2011 10:55am
Quoting Osman
Hi Pres,

Thx for your answer, would be the same case in an uptrend ?

The up candle closed higher than previous bar but volume was higher, than the down candle, in this case it worked but wanted to ask you as market dont like high volume up bars...

* On your last example of the 2 bar reversal on Oil, wouldnt the down bar has to close at the low of the previous bar ? the down candle made a higher high but the close was around 50% of the up candle

Thx !
1. I never like to see higher volume on the second bar for a reversal unless it has a strong close and a reason to have higher volume (like a push through S or D)... As a general rule for me though lower volume always on the second bar.

2. The higher high and a close lower even if not engulfing are all I need. Like I said in my first reply a lower low (therefore engulfing) is the icing on the cake and is great but not a requirement for me personally.

3. My PM is turned on in the options so I don't know what's up with that.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #21,802
  • Sep 23, 2011 11:03am Sep 23, 2011 11:03am
Lovely, thx for your answer mate

Quoting pres78
1. I never like to see higher volume on the second bar for a reversal unless it has a strong close and a reason to have higher volume (like a push through S or D)... As a general rule for me though lower volume always on the second bar.

2. The higher high and a close lower even if not engulfing are all I need. Like I said in my first reply a lower low (therefore engulfing) is the icing on the cake and is great but not a requirement for me personally.

3. My PM is turned on in the options so I don't know what's up with that.
Trade Smart
  • #21,803
  • Edited 3:18pm Sep 23, 2011 11:10am | Edited 3:18pm
Quoting pres78
We are currently in a 100 pip or so zone which until broken and tested successfully could provide some ranging. 80.50 rejection above and 79.60 Thursday low below (which we are back at...)
So we are still busy bouncing up and down in the above noted zone... Look at the volume on each rejection how it's been getting less and less.

This could mean 2 things;

1. They are wearing away the supply for a push through (we are making HH and HL so they could be planning a push)
2. They are becoming less interested in higher prices and we could see a failure and drop off from this level

Edit 3. Or we could just spend the day ranging away...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: oil 9.23.2011.gif Size: 21 KB
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #21,804
  • Sep 23, 2011 6:30pm Sep 23, 2011 6:30pm
show me the $$$$! I'm rich bieeeetch!

http://media.screened.com/uploads/0/...ich_bitch.jpeg
  • #21,805
  • Sep 24, 2011 7:10pm Sep 24, 2011 7:10pm
Gold has been brewing with some major SOW in the background since August so as we re-approached that August high again in early September I flipped to the daily charts and started to watch for some longer term short trades if SOW's were confirmed (which they were in a big way)...

I have a few positions open from various levels on the move down I hope others are also riding along.

There is a lot of room below so targets are open and stops will be trailed with the volume.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold daily.gif Size: 32 KB
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #21,806
  • Sep 25, 2011 2:41am Sep 25, 2011 2:41am
Quoting pres78
Gold has been brewing with some major SOW in the background since August so as we re-approached that August high again in early September I flipped to the daily charts and started to watch for some longer term short trades if SOW's were confirmed (which they were in a big way)...
HI Jason

I was discussing this with Tom on Friday. Here's my chart from then - its based on XAU spot but the principles are the same.

I'll let you be the one to tell Mr T from the A team that he should get rid of his necklaces
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold.jpg Size: 189 KB
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #21,807
  • Sep 25, 2011 3:19am Sep 25, 2011 3:19am
Very important this, interested in people's comments.

A very interesting trading lesson from Todd Krueger of Traders code this week, talking about ES and where it's heading. He posts up a PNF chart - I've created my own version and posted below.

His point is if we break that trend line, we are now in a bear market, and it would confirm the last few weeks we've been looking at re-distribution instead of accumulation. I 100% agree with this, my analysis of last week's hourly chart shows weakness and every move up is being sold into. This is not how a strong market works, so I think over the next few weeks we'll see that line broken (1117 on my chart) and price stay below it, driving downwards.

This is a good example of combining PNF and VSA - this PNF chart is begging the question, is this down move going to continue and therefore should I hold onto my longer TF PNF based short? The VSA hourly chart below (and then the 15M drill down) is what I believe confirms this downmove is going to break that all important trend line.

Comments welcome.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ES Daily PNF 250911.jpg Size: 169 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: ES 1h 250911.jpg Size: 205 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: ES 15M 250911.jpg Size: 183 KB
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  • #21,808
  • Sep 25, 2011 6:15am Sep 25, 2011 6:15am
Quoting Steve Gill
HI Jason

I was discussing this with Tom on Friday. Here's my chart from then - its based on XAU spot but the principles are the same.

I'll let you be the one to tell Mr T from the A team that he should get rid of his necklaces
I pity the fool who trades against the trend diamonds ...

Besides Steve I think that due to allergic reactions as he got older Mr T has gone to platinum jewlery
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #21,809
  • Edited 9:12am Sep 25, 2011 8:33am | Edited 9:12am
Quoting Steve Gill
Very important this, interested in people's comments.

A very interesting trading lesson from Todd Krueger of Traders code this week, talking about ES and where it's heading. He posts up a PNF chart - I've created my own version and posted below.

His point is if we break that trend line, we are now in a bear market, and it would confirm the last few weeks...
Hey Steve...

Liam would be proud of your PNF chart... very nice. I agree that ES is looking weak ATM. If you bring up a monthly ES chart we have two very clear legs within the move up from the March 2009 low up to the most recent May 2011 high.

The first leg made it's high in April 2010 and then printed a picture perfect 38.2 retrace before pushing through the high making leg 2. Leg 2 has retraced almost 100 % of the move having pushed back down through the 38.2 level. I am not sure how PNF works exactly (still on my to study list) but I see that last month we broke thorugh the lower trendline of this overall move up.

For the bears 1100 is important as it is the 61.8 fib of the move up from March 2009 and then 1020 which is the 50 fib.

Chart 1 shows the fib from October 2007 high to March 2009 low as you will see we moved up and were rejected right at the 76.4 fib level... Nice

Chart 2 shows the original leg up move with the text book 38.2 retrace before continuing up

Chart 3 shows the overall 2 legs up combined as one from the low to this years high. As you will see we are currently facing off with the 38.2 retrace... this is where SM needs to decide whether to take it out heading down to the 50 fib next or ultimately move back up from here. Right now weakness seems to be in control but time and VSA will tell.

Oil, EU, GU and Gold (per my previous post) all seem to be weak also... looks like a fall of buying back into the "safety" of the US dollar may be in store?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: es 2007 high to 2009 low.gif Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: es 2009 low to 2010 high.gif Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: es leg up from 2009.gif Size: 27 KB
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #21,810
  • Sep 25, 2011 11:40am Sep 25, 2011 11:40am
Very good analysis. If this is redistribution, I'd imagine to see a break to the upside of that range and an upthrust to confirm that's what's happening.
  • #21,811
  • Sep 25, 2011 1:21pm Sep 25, 2011 1:21pm
Quoting neutral
Very good analysis. If this is redistribution, I'd imagine to see a break to the upside of that range and an upthrust to confirm that's what's happening.
I'd only expect this if they want to suck in weak holders long on Monday. As always, we'll trade the charts, but I'd more likely be looking for a hard and fast breakdown through the lows, and a no demand or upthrust back into the low aka support now turned resistance.
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  • #21,812
  • Sep 25, 2011 2:22pm Sep 25, 2011 2:22pm
Quoting Steve Gill
Very important this, interested in people's comments.

A very interesting trading lesson from Todd Krueger of Traders code this week, talking about ES and where it's heading. He posts up a PNF chart - I've created my own version and posted below.

His point is if we break that trend line, we are now in a bear market, and it would confirm the last few weeks we've been...
Stockcharts.com P&F for $SPX showing double bottom break down with $1010 price objective. http://stockcharts.com/webcgi/Pnf.asp?S=$SPX
  • #21,813
  • Sep 26, 2011 6:44am Sep 26, 2011 6:44am
ES pushing up - absorbed supply at the globex high. However I'd expect 1160 to cap it, or at least I'd be watching PA around there for a reaction.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ES 5M 260911v3.jpg Size: 200 KB
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  • #21,814
  • Sep 26, 2011 7:12am Sep 26, 2011 7:12am
Quoting Steve Gill
ES pushing up - absorbed supply at the globex high. However I'd expect 1160 to cap it, or at least I'd be watching PA around there for a reaction.
I agree 1160 is key. Seeing volume coming in this hour leading up to NY open, close well off the high. Might expect to see a continued push up with either an UT or ND into that 1160 area.

FWIW Oil just printed a hidden UT on the hourly chart...

Yellow lines left to right on a 15min ES chart...

1. We pushed down into the body of my highest volume bar from 9.22.2011 (marked with the green fib)
2. We attempted to rise (see the incraesed effort) but failed right at that upper fib showing supply is still in control
3. Possible selling climax 1hr before LO
4. Increased volume down bar closing on it's low (hidden buying leading into LO???)
5. Nice 2 bar reversal (would have preferred a lower low) but same low and almost fully engulfed. This would be aggressive entry one for a long
6. Look at the increased volume required to push back out of this supply zone bars high. Actually look at all the bars after LO as they push price back up... buying present yes but so was supply. Look at the initial attempt to push through was met with rejection and some supply overflow with the next bar down... SM then pushed price through.
7. Long entry 2 - this one was the safest on this 15min TF as we have seen proven strength right behind us and now a NS is a rising market.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: es 9.26.2011.gif Size: 27 KB
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #21,815
  • Sep 26, 2011 7:44am Sep 26, 2011 7:44am
EU, Oil and ES are all looking at bit weak up at their daily highs...

EU is back at an important level of 3500 (also 3490 which was 9.12.2011 low and bounce which was just taken out last week. Attempts and ultimate failure if it occurs at this level opens the doors to revisit this years lows.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #21,816
  • Sep 26, 2011 8:03am Sep 26, 2011 8:03am
EU long at 3500 only looking for 3520-3525...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #21,817
  • Sep 26, 2011 8:06am Sep 26, 2011 8:06am
Quoting pres78
EU long at 3500 only looking for 3520-3525...
Closed out at entry... too risky being at this high and at this important level...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #21,818
  • Sep 26, 2011 8:08am Sep 26, 2011 8:08am
Short at 3495 after an upper 2 bar reversal rejection at 50% of a HVB (second highest 5min of the day)...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 9.26.2011.gif Size: 21 KB
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #21,819
  • Edited 8:46am Sep 26, 2011 8:28am | Edited 8:46am
Quoting pres78
Short at 3495 after an upper 2 bar reversal rejection at 50% of a HVB (second highest 5min of the day)...
Hoping NYSE open gives the push to take EU down to at least 3440 support... Have moved both trades to BE.

Edit - Right down to 3440 and seeing a bounce... very predictable. See if the bounce is sustained or simply building for another push down. Lots of volume on that last closed upbar...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #21,820
  • Sep 26, 2011 8:51am Sep 26, 2011 8:51am
Oil short at 79.30...

ES short 1137.50...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
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