14 Year Old Forex Trader's Lessons

come on then billy boy spill the beans b4 i send the boys round

Hi Tedge you ok, i am one of the boys lol.as you are aware i sniff around these sites looking for new ways to trade. i have a good way and it does lose but perhaps if i have another way to trade this will even it out. I am a keep it simple guy and i am wise enough to know that i've seen lots of people wiped out using all manner of indicators and inside info but i guess thats life, take care and happy trading happy days

bumapatria, I'm very glad that you made this decision! Frankly speaking I wanted to tell you yesterday that I didn't like you trading so many very different markets.

EURUSD is a great choice, and when you feel that you need more you can always add GBPUSD and/or EURJPY (excellent pair IMHO), it would be much easier trading even 3 FOREX pairs than trading FOREX, gold, silver and dow.

ALWAYS?

Care to share?

lets get those boys around and sort him fav?

@Redlion, thanks red, i missed out a lot by sleeping!

those pictures really helped. What i still dont understand is how the moving average helps you gauge or analyze the market's fluctuations between the highs and lows. I can see how the bollinger bands help, showing the range of where highs and lows might occur.



oh to whoever asked about the ichimoku, i honestly dont feel dizzy looking at them.

yes indeed Favorite apart from last week when i made a school boy error and lost but this week i got the money back. Like the old story goes winners dont tell their secret. i am still out to learn but i'll always keep it simple no matter which way the trend is going most people following it will get caught out with the stop loss thats a cert. Slight clue for you,,, i trade mainly on the time and use a 40 pip stop loss AND will double up at times and NO it isnt martingale. Have a good weekend all happy trading happy days

Hi billly,

you use stop based on market or just based on its dollar value? I use stops based on market's highs and lows, supply demand, support resistance, swing high, swing low, and usually never use the actual value of that trade in money. Care to tell why?

stop losses re high/low resistance/support swings etc they dont always do what we read about that is what catches people out but many times they do do what you read about lol. thats why you use only a percentage of your bank its like a cat playing with a mouse. Red mentioned about getting a FEEL???? thats experiance for you. At a certain time of day i will make a trade/s with a 40 stop loss and it doesn't matter if i'm with the trend or against and most often come up trumps and sometimes i do get the FEEL so i dont trade, i may go a couple of days without trading and then trade, i check my records and see the percentages/odds of me winning then go for it. happy trading happy days

To those asking me why i use ichimoku kinko hyo, is first of all, the name means "an equilibrium chart at a glance". Most indicators act based on ACTIVE price movements, while the ichimoku acts based on past movements, to show possible current movement, and current movement shows possible future movement. i only use it on my higher tf charts, and i will begin to show you how i scalp in ranging environment, and trade a trend in a higher timeframe.

bill might be talking about trade rescues, which is what i do as well, i dont use stop losses generally hence why i want to know what the volatility is.
definition of volatility= normal price variations, standard deviations from the mean.

let say i notice orders flow changing and upside or downside momentum being lost i will enter the trade initially with a portion of my position size, however price continues up, if in tuned with volatility ( i do BB as they calculate it for me, or you can do S/D or S/R to establish normal volatility parameters)

i dont panic still within normal price deviations i simply add to my position to get average down on price close to market value as my analysis was not flawed just missed timed. hence the importance of knowing your threshold and your value at risk (roughly in worst case scenario what how much are you risking? think of $ per total pip movement taking into account total lots in the market, take into account volatility, and also average true range, as it gives you probable number of pips travel)


hey Bummapatria its funny you ask me how a moving average is useful
you are using ichimoku cloud that is two moving averages 9,26.

@billyt,

then i guess i have a different feel. I definitely use s/r for stops, when i use them, and i have a feel where stops are needed and where it isn't.
We all have different feels and twitches for the market definitely.

@Red, call me buma from now on, patria's my last name, lol.

haha, ill show you the difference between a moving average and the ichimoku's tenkan sen, and kijun sen with a chart.

go for it buma, show me.
ask yourself why is 9,26 useful to you?

on a daily chart that is 9 periods, 9 days, 26 periods=26 days.
on an hourly chart 9 hours and 26 hours
on a five minute chart that is 45 minutes and 2.16 hours

Ichimoku in japanese means: "equilibrium chart at a glance". It measures past movements for possible present movements, and present movements, measure possible future movements. here is a four hourly chart of eur/usd and i would like you guys to see the downtrend. from beginning to the low. the red is the 9 period "tenkan sen" the more sensitive moving average, and the blue is the 26 period "kijun sen" to more long term moves. The purpose of ichimoku is to help the trader find entry points and exit points, not at the precise entry point, but one with low risk opportunities. As you can see on the chart, the k-s (blue) acts as somewhat of a useful trailing stop. You can see how it moves like downward steps on a staircase. the red however is more sensitive to price fluctuations and deviations. As you can see there is a green lagging line which is called the "chikou span" meaning lagging line. it goes back 52 periods from the current bar or candle, and helps traders see the past with this line, instead of scrolling back and forth for support and resistance. Future possible movements wouuld be the kumo cloud. it is sped up 26 periods of current price movement. It determines possible pullback in the future, or reversal. heres a chart and example where a possible recent low risk entry with ichimoku wouldve worked.

I honestly believe ichimoku works great on higher tf's and sucks at lower t'fs of m15, m30, m5, m1. any greater its excellent.
ADD: i will put the same text on next chart, but with simple moving averages instead.

here is solid evidence that there is no time frames and analysis you put on the charts definitely influences your perception if you lose track of the feel of price itself hence the comment of look at the quotes.

these charts alone tell you alot without any averages BB S/D S/R and the sort.
i think i should start from the basics with you, simple candle charts.

you see, same price different look, BUT WAIT............ Same look if you use reference points, the daily open, and the hourly open price then you see the candles as they form

to me, the moving averages are almost similar. almost. but notice how the ichimoku sens moves, and how the moving averages move. moving averages move too smoothly in my perspective, for prices don't move that way. E.G. see chart. you can see how smoothly the averages move, and how more aggresive or jagged the ichimo-sens move.

Imo, the ichimoku determines possible trend changes. e.g: there is possible trend change, when price aggresively breaks through the two sens, and the kumo cloud. will show example as well. This plus supply and demand will work to be quite a good system/strategy, but requires massive patience for low risk entries.

exits, can be determined with using ichi on lower tf in this case h1.

i think you are still predicting.

bear with me buma lets not use any other studies but candles. and price direction, then we move on to more precise entrances and probability calculators.

i will disagree with you here and tell you why.

ichimoku is nothing but 2 averages fast and slow (this is the wrong idea already)

9,26 has nothing to do with sensitivity it averages 9 Periods and 26 periods of whatever candle you tell it to average.

however this time is a twist it gives you the average not by traditional mean of (sum of x)/ N but by (high+low of x period)/2 it always tries to find the mid point and calculates the equilibrum right?

so at the end of the day your variables changes with the type of candle, and tries to give you possible areas where price might be= prediction

how about lets work on no studies just entrances at corrective waves turning to inflection point, or loss of momentum possible correction points for now.

lets let price do whatever it wants, we just piggy back and eat from the crumbs of the big players

we're typing at different speeds.

Okay, can you show me how say entry with just candles?

even though, isnt what you're doing prediction as well?

isnt analysis prediction?

we dont know anything lol.

anyways show me your analysis. here is a chart that i can go as naked as possible. anymore, i suck. fibo channel at extreme high, and supply demand levels on low tf. ranging market.

first of all let me ask you, by observing the candles on all time frames can you notice the loss of momentum aka shift in orderflow?