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vsa with Malcolm

  • #21,761
  • Sep 22, 2011 10:50am Sep 22, 2011 10:50am
Quoting Lluna
Some thoughts and observations about yesterday, EU/US 5’ opportunities.

It was FOMC day so a holding day with not much chances to high probability traders.

Price did a WW with its PS, SC and AR followed with a ST that did not push trough AR hi.

Price then retested the SC area with a SO that did not moved too far. Then another SO and our first opportunity to go long.

1. We had SOS on the background with the WW so when price took the hi of the SO bar (signaled with a blue 1) I went long.

That movement did not go that far. Next bar closed...
Great stuff.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #21,762
  • Sep 22, 2011 12:12pm Sep 22, 2011 12:12pm
Quoting HiddenGap
@ Pres78;

Very unique application of Fibs on those WRBs. Seems to take the trigger level/number concept to a whole new level.
Yeah it's a little something I have been playing with. Fibbing the highest volume bar for moves into them and also really WRB's even if not UHV...

It seems to be working well thus far and giving some nice entires. Also gives me the high, low and 50% (we both know the importance this level can hold in those herd bars) of the bar without drawing them individually. The close levels I now monitor visually.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #21,763
  • Sep 22, 2011 12:47pm Sep 22, 2011 12:47pm
Quoting pres78
Yeah it's a little something I have been playing with. Fibbing the highest volume bar for moves into them and also really WRB's even if not UHV...

It seems to be working well thus far and giving some nice entires. Also gives me the high, low and 50% (we both know the importance this level can hold in those herd bars) of the bar without drawing them individually. The close levels I now monitor visually.
I'd like to hear more about your findings.
  • #21,764
  • Sep 22, 2011 12:56pm Sep 22, 2011 12:56pm
Quoting Intel
I'd like to hear more about your findings.
Will gladly share in due time.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #21,765
  • Sep 22, 2011 1:36pm Sep 22, 2011 1:36pm
EU long for a quick scalp... (We had been making HH and HL for a short tern uptrend)

Chart should say it all... Figured I had at least 20-30 easy above for breathing room to the high of the fibbed bar and a safe stop around 25 pips down... Looks like we have met some supply at that old 9.12.2011 bottom at 3491...

Done for the day.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #21,766
  • Sep 22, 2011 3:37pm Sep 22, 2011 3:37pm
My analysis of ES for the day. It teaches you to drill down - have a look at the daily bar, it looks like it could be quite strong - high vol, well off the lows (currently at 1126). We are getting back into the vol of the beginning of August with the first panic.

However drill down to today's action and you see the attached. I can't see anything other than closing the week on the lows tomorrow. Whether the smart money buys into panic selling if we breach the recent lows at 1077 who knows, we'll just have to watch the chart and find out.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ES 5M 220911 v3.jpg Size: 192 KB
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #21,767
  • Sep 22, 2011 4:19pm Sep 22, 2011 4:19pm
Quoting Steve Gill
My analysis of ES for the day. It teaches you to drill down - have a look at the daily bar, it looks like it could be quite strong - high vol, well off the lows (currently at 1126). We are getting back into the vol of the beginning of August with the first panic.

However drill down to today's action and you see the attached. I can't see anything other than closing the week on the lows tomorrow. Whether the smart money buys into panic selling if we breach the recent lows at 1077 who knows, we'll just have to watch the chart and find out.
Hey Steve thanks for the chart... yes that was a beautiful ND / 2 bar reversal into that trigger.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #21,768
  • Sep 22, 2011 4:33pm Sep 22, 2011 4:33pm
Hi, I 'm just a newbie using VSA since this summer.

I just wanted to Thank Malcolm for this awesome thread. I'm at the beginning of my study of VSA. I have read MTM, the HiddenGap pdf (HG is an awesome teacher), i watched a lot of videos of gavin holmes from Tradeguider and i'm currently at the 500 post of this thread.

I have already learned a lot but not enough to contribute to this thread for the moment. I hope it will come soon.

In the meantime, i follow you guys on the path of the Smart Money.
  • #21,769
  • Sep 22, 2011 4:39pm Sep 22, 2011 4:39pm
Quoting pres78
...Chart should say it all... Figured I had at least 20-30 easy above for breathing room to the high of the fibbed bar and a safe stop around 25 pips down... Looks like we have met some supply at that old 9.12.2011 bottom at 3491..

Well done my friend.

Just wanted to show the 3 minute chart. Here too the chart says it all, but in this case it's speaking in a bit of a whisper.

Notice the first black arrow. It points to a candle that closes lower than the previous candle but off of its low with low volume. Look closer at the volume. It is equal to the previous volume. But here's the rub: while it is equal to the previous volume bar, that previous volume bar was less than the previous two volume bars.

It's still No Supply. In the heat of the moment, the base definition of No Supply could box you in and you might not see this.

If you did not see that as No Supply, there is another interval to focus on. Two intervals later we see another down bar with a range less then the previous bar but on increasing volume. That's a Squat. So we have an inside down bar on a decreasing range with increasing volume (a Squat) and we have strength in the background.

Yes, the chart says it all. Without VSA, however, you might think it's just speaking in tongues.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #21,770
  • Sep 22, 2011 6:09pm Sep 22, 2011 6:09pm
Quoting HiddenGap
Well done my friend.

Just wanted to show the 3 minute chart. Here too the chart says it all, but in this case it's speaking in a bit of a whisper.

Notice the first black arrow. It points to a candle that closes lower than the previous candle but off of its low with low volume. Look closer at the volume. It is equal to the previous volume. But here's the rub: while it is equal to the previous volume bar, that previous volume bar was less than the previous two volume bars.

It's still No Supply. In the heat of the moment, the base definition...
HG thanks so much for the chart and follow up to my post always like to hear from the veterans from whom I’ve learned so very much. I love dissecting charts on all time frames whether I get into a trade or not. Something I do on a regular basis and something I would recommend to anyone learning VSA is what I like to call reverse trading. So what I do in my reverse trading is take a completed chart for the day and then once I have determined the main paths for the day (say down, up, down) I will look at the 15min first then the 5min and sometimes the 1 min and I say “OK LO took price down, where did SM let me into the trade”? I look at all 3 timeframes and look for all the entries I can find that match my personal VSA set-up criteria. I will then move onto the next leg of the move and do the same thing. This is actually how I learned to trade VSA but starting with what did SM do today and how could I have followed along.

So I have gotten off topic and back to your chart...

I have watched every single Trade Guider video on YouTube and have read all of Tom’s and Gavin’s books (Wyckoff is next) and you will see time and time again examples of what you showed where even the Master Tom himself uses his own judgement and strays from the “hard and fast” VSA definitions. Even Gavin trades bars that TG does NOT identify simply because he can see and understands what the bar – spread – volume means even if not “text book”. A NS is lower volume than the previous two bars yes... but what if it’s the same as the bar before whose volume was lower than previous 2 does that not count? In my book yes it does... I will even trade a bar as NS whose volume is not lower than the previous 2 simply based on what the bar is doing and where it is and what is behind it on the chart... VSA IMHO is all about the bars – volume being in the right places... Take a look at some of Gavin’s videos and some of the bars he trades / calls NS or ND... the volume is not always less than the previous 2 .
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #21,771
  • Sep 22, 2011 6:21pm Sep 22, 2011 6:21pm
Quoting pres78
Take a look at some of Gavin’s videos and some of the bars he trades / calls NS or ND... the volume is not always less than the previous 2 .
That's because they line up with Rob Hoffmans tone.. lock.. blowout $320 000 indicators.
  • #21,772
  • Sep 22, 2011 7:04pm Sep 22, 2011 7:04pm
Very mixed price action in the last 12 hours. On one hand we have a potential selling climax, shakeout, and successful test. On the other we have a strong down trend, a test that failed with a wide spread down, and several UT's that produce no result (SOS). I'm still bearish and will be looking for a short entry on 15m around 1.5400. It's nice to see that HiddenGap is back along with most of the gang.
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  • #21,773
  • Sep 22, 2011 7:35pm Sep 22, 2011 7:35pm
In the buy-the-dips mode on eu
  • #21,774
  • Sep 22, 2011 7:56pm Sep 22, 2011 7:56pm
Haven't traded Asia in awhile but we had been trending up some off the Thursday low making a series of HH and HL's... Blue hull, NS followed by 2 effort to fall bars with the second one closing on the low of the NS... SOS. Entry at 3480. Not expecting much but lot 1 has been closed for a nice 1:1, lot 2 moved to BE.

Not sure what is causing this odd 100pip move up but hey I don't really care either.

Based on the hourly volume on EU and GU something is brewing as it's higher than all of the hourly volume Thursday right up until NY / NYSE opens...

FWIW Oil and GU also gave nice long set-ups in this early Asian trading... I didn't catch either. Too tired to watch more than one pair tonight.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 9.23.2011.gif Size: 24 KB
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #21,775
  • Sep 22, 2011 8:11pm Sep 22, 2011 8:11pm
Quoting pres78
Haven't traded Asia in awhile but we had been trending up some off the Thursday low making a series of HH and HL's... Blue hull, NS followed by 2 effort to fall bars with the second one closing on the low of the NS... SOS. Entry at 3480. Not expecting much but lot 1 has been closed for a nice 1:1, lot 2 moved to BE.

Not sure what is causing this odd 100pip move up but hey I don't really care either.

Based on the hourly volume on EU and GU something is brewing as it's higher than all of the hourly volume Thursday right up until NY / NYSE opens......
Closed out lot 2... the 1 hr print shows increasing volume with a close well off the highs. Looking for further SOW leading into LO for another possible move down... Not enough strength or volume yet push this up very high. Smelling a bit like an Asia low liquity mark-up for a London sell off but will wait for further confirmations.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #21,776
  • Sep 22, 2011 9:43pm Sep 22, 2011 9:43pm
Hey Pres,

Just wanted to know what your general experience with Tadawulfx is. Transferring of funds, Execution, stuff like that.

Thanks.
  • #21,777
  • Sep 22, 2011 10:56pm Sep 22, 2011 10:56pm
nice confluence at 1.3600 38.2 and 50 fib, previous support, and a round number....If anyone has a copy of Gavin's book I would be grateful if you could share it with me.
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  • #21,778
  • Sep 23, 2011 12:09am Sep 23, 2011 12:09am
Quoting apple_sauce
nice confluence at 1.3600 38.2 and 50 fib, previous support, and a round number....If anyone has a copy of Gavin's book I would be grateful if you could share it with me.
Look at 4h vol apple, we have some volume down there.
  • #21,779
  • Edited 3:12am Sep 23, 2011 2:59am | Edited 3:12am
yup definitely some strength coming in, however we are still in a down trend so unless I see accumulation I am still bearish.... I just took a short on usd/chf
Quoting duyk20
Look at 4h vol apple, we have some volume down there.
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  • #21,780
  • Sep 23, 2011 3:37am Sep 23, 2011 3:37am
agree with your bearishness on eu. may even bounce of a new downwards channel forming.
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Be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy.
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