The Rolling Trader - forex,commodities,stocks - what is rolling?

I wanted to change my profile from RollingT to ArtofTrading and clearly communicated it. But it wasn't possible.. a bit annoying.. however, let's just forget it and keep on rolling..

www.jeffrey-investment.com

Hi there,

The EUR, Aussie, Kiwi, Loonie, Cable, even Gold are all trading at, slightly over or near important support/restistance levels..

One of my rules in my CPS Trading System is not to fight such levels.

So, I actually just woke up, checked the charts and the news and immediately wrote you this, because I'm going back asleep now.. kidding of course..

I felt that the FED probably will disappoint the market with their actions.. I didn't act on it because I haven't had any setup for acting. So, it wasn't wrong to not act. Wait a second, I go check my charts again, if I really haven't missed any setup, this is bugging me now... ok, back, looks pretty clear, no mistake done.. it was a pure newstrade.. and I just trade them if we get a very tight sideways motion before, indicating that really nobody has an idea.. hehe..

Anyway, the Fed statement is old pudding now.. I think the initial market movement down will lure the mass in the wrong direction just to rebound shortly after the last one was tricked.. so I stay on hold for now, but keep my eyes wiiide open..

Cheers,

And my question to you:

What do you think is rolling?

Just told my buddies in Germany that I go long the AUD/USD.. We have seen a nice touch down at two strong support levels.. It's a risky trade, but if I succeeded to front run the big guys taking their profits.. well then, it was worth the try.. we will see..

I'm listening "Scotland the Brave" now, I like to do that when I execute my so called Joker Trades..

Stay tuned.

Cheers,
Jeffrey

Holy moly!

What a move by the USD.. no prisoners at all.. no resistance or support trendline did hold so far. And have you seen the Singapore Dollar.. the USD/SGD shot to the moon!

There must have been massive bets that the FED will print money again. Hence, we experience a greenback shortsqueeze now. All the SHORT USD homies get a slap in the face.

I haven't been short nor long the USD (expect the small Joker Trade, which I've mentioned above, and didn't work obviously). Ok, that's not quite true, I have a hell a lot of USD on my trading account which I don't hedge at the moment. So, actually I'm making quite some hedging profit.. but that's not really how I get food on the table..

Yeah anyway, jumping on the USD express train now is probably too late. We need to see how strong a first rebound will be, to get an idea of the remaining strength of the bears.

Cheers for now,

Jeffrey

I think the profit taking has started now. We really have to see how the rebound will look like. Ok, that means I have to go now

I went short the USD/CAD with a Joker Trade.. that is, I don't risk much and try to profit from the profit taking of the others..

Cheers,
Jeffrey

What is rolling?

Definitely the SGD... ohh I would just love to hammer some short USD/SGD positions in the market.. it looks like a real nice overreaction.. take the daily chart.. just crazy.. at 1.30 I first wanted to put in a short position but it shot right through it, so I didn't even bother to short it.. I need the price to at least move a bit in my direction before I hit the send button. And now this 1.3 level is a resistance in my way.. so again, this is a no-go for now at least..

I'm watching you, SGD!!

Cheers,

Jeffrey

ps. by the way, f... the fundamentals for now.. because fundamentally speaking, the SGD shouldn't get hammered like that against the USD. Explain you in less busy times..

I am waiting your analysis on usd/sgd movement. I am not forex trader but layman who recently needs to convert cny to sgd for 100k. I am shocked by recent sgd drop and start getting more greedy...

Is cny appreciating against sgd is all due to usd/sgd effect? cny drops from 5.3 to 4.88 per sgd within week. can this momentum be held or we are expecting rebound soon?

why singapore govement let it go like this but not intervene. I am thinking gov is hoping so...

I am waiting for your opinion in sg hour

Hey archlight

The government of Singapore probably likes the drop of the SGD, because that is good for their exports. And they are an export country.

The SGD moves very health for the country at the moment. When there is global trouble, their currency depreciates, making them more competitive. When there is global growth, the SGD appreciates, helping them to steam inflation.

Regarding your converting of CNY, I wouldn't do it at once. I would do half now and another half later (I don't know when you need the money). That's just my opinion respectively feeling. I really think that the current level is a bit exaggerated. But as I said, I personally do not have any short USD/SGD position at the moment because the 1.3 support is my way.

It's now on the moon but it could go to mars as well. Currency markets are very reflexive, that is, they go through huge swings (that's why it is so cool to trade them as a trend follower). Hence, in your situation, I wouldn't convert everything at once, I would at least split the risk.

I hope I could help you a bit.

Cheers,

Jeffrey

What's up guys?

Just checked the charts and the news.. it looks like profit taking is rolling on..
I'm personally SHORT USD/CAD and LONG NZD/USD, actually quite at the peaks.. soooo, that's why I'm not considering also going short USD/SGD, just for the record, even the 1.30 got crossed. Don't want to increase my open risk at the moment.

Yeah, my two positions are running well at the moment. That I went short USD/CAD I've communicated to you. The long NZD/USD I didn't, sorry about that.. I will try to do better.

where was I? Ah, SGD.. you know what, I think I go now and check for some opportunities.. there seems to be a lot going on now..

Cheers,

Jeffrey

And my question to you:

What do you think is rolling?

Here I am again.. it's all about credibility.. so here is my proof of the open NZD/USD position: see Chart attached
To dotted blue line is where I opened the position.

cheers

Back again.. there is no action needed at the moment, so I have some spare minutes for you..

I want to stretch, that my open risk is extremely low at the moment. The situation is very political driven.. and I don't like that.

But generally, I say that we have seen a lot of s... priced in. So, I'm expecting a countermove now, because markets tend to overreact.. just take the DAX, it's near 5000 point again, this is extremely low.. However, we haven't seen a nice bottom now, so this is a high risk. Again, that's why I don't have too much risk open on my long risk assets (CAD, NZD) side.

Cheers,

Jeffrey

Hey, what's up..

Yesterday night and this morning I went through my CPS trading system to look for bugs. And I indeed found one..

My rule to trail the initial stop loss after I'm 1.5 times my initial risk in green territory (that is a 1.5R profit) actually spoiled some pretty good moves I made.

Yeah, I didn't lose but missed freaking 5R profits and the like. For instance just recently I went short the DAX at quite the top but got stopped out because I trailed my initial stop loss after I reached a 1.5R profit.. I would have a reeeeaally nice profit if I had not trailed my stop loss to that level.. f..... hell.. this rule sucks.. so I dismiss it..

By the way, this is just one example, I weighted the advantage and disadvantage of that rule quite carefully and in the long run it's frankly just not worth it. Thus, bye bye Breakeven Stop (that's how I called the rule)..

I recently added two other exit rules, which I think are very cool. My exit strategy gets better and better.

Yeah, I'm honest with you, my CPS system is really clever but not without room for improvement, and I'm happy every time I achieve to improve. I think one of the next steps could be some automation.. at the moment I'm pretty much the machine of the system..

This has to do that the human brain still IS the better machine than any computer we have seen so far, at least in my opinion.. I just say: INTUITION.. a computer doesn't have.. and it's soo important. However, I recognize some potential for automation which would help me a great deal.

Cheers,

Jeffrey

As tradionally, I don't work long hours on Friday, and wish you all a very nice weekend.

ps. the markets are really playing cats and mouse.. I'm inclined to say that there is a rebound waiting, however I also received a short NZD/USD signal from my CPS system just some minutes ago, which I followed.

The result, I'm simultaneously short and long the NZD/USD, as well as two times short the USD/CAD. Man.. this is what happens if the market is so confused.. But that's ok.. because, I'm realizing the confusion and heavily reduced my position size, I'm just playing with legos at the moment.. hahaha.. ok, till next week..

Cheers,
Jeffrey

ps. again..

was checking my trading journal, taking a last look at the screens and BAM!!.. I see a nice setup for the DAX.. so, I went long the DAX, small position size (risking just about 0.2% of my trading capital).

Cheers,
Jeffrey

Long DAX
Short USD/CAD (2x)
Long NZD/USD

So, I'm risk on now. But as I said, it's quite risky, so small position sizes.

Hi Jeffrey,

Thank you for sharing your trading experience. Singapore CPI(5.7%) is released as above expectation. SG monetary authority will hold a meeting in mid Oct to discuss about it. I might convert half of my cny to sgd before that.

interesting to know you do algo trading. I am following ernie chan's blog but feel difficult to follow. are you using similar set up as he did?

Regards

Hey archlight,

Nope, I do not have an algo machine executing my orders. I could automate some of my system, that would be way cool, but I don't have the programming skills to do that.

One day I will try to team up with a software programmer to automate some stuff and increase my trading opportunities.

Yeah, I think you're doing a reasonable thing to split your currency risk.

Oh, before I forget, I don't know ernie chan, but I will check him out.

Thank you for reading my trading comments and I wish you a very nice weekend.

Cheerio,

Jeffrey

I started a new thread, please check it out..

Billion Dollar Trader:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=317220

I will continue my market comments there.

Cheerio,

Jeffrey