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High velocity trading

  • #341
  • Sep 21, 2011 1:38am Sep 21, 2011 1:38am
Dan to answer your question, today is 21st of september 2011, the AMR on GU, EU, AU is out already on the downside. The majors are about to rebound.

The risk/reward currently has shifted to the upside. Downside seems to be very limited, although that doesn't mean we can't go lower. Just means that the odds are stacked better for the upside.

On USDX, I use the modified USD LFX version. If you pop up the D1 charts, you can see strong resistance built by candles with long wicks. I don't think currently that USD LFX will be able to break through this area.

All in all it does look like we might have reached the bottom and about to rebound.

XAU USD for sure right now looks 75% bullish 25% bearish. The only reason we can go lower now if triangle fails to break out to the top. Price action has indicated that it wants triangle to resolve to the top. How do I know that? Because of the HL sequnce (higher lows).

All in all patience right now required and need to wait for proper levels to be triggered.

Also Dan I think AU is a very tradeable currency. The reason is that it has very strong correlation with XAU USD.
  • #342
  • Sep 21, 2011 1:41am Sep 21, 2011 1:41am
Quoting ruffryders
this is a wrong close. close is 1824
Thanks.....
  • #343
  • Sep 21, 2011 1:50am Sep 21, 2011 1:50am
Quoting ruffryders
Dan to answer your question, today is 21st of september 2011, the AMR on GU, EU, AU is out already on the downside. The majors are about to rebound.

The risk/reward currently has shifted to the upside. Downside seems to be very limited, although that doesn't mean we can't go lower. Just means that the odds are stacked better for the upside.

On USDX, I use the modified USD LFX version. If you pop up the D1 charts, you can see strong resistance built by candles with long wicks. I don't think currently that USD LFX will be able to break through...
And double thanks..for great insights... 100% rite re hier low thanks fo pointing out....and i didnt know correlation Aussie and XAU... and Excuse my ignorance.. WOTS the AMR... i will look up... U are thinking abt 10 times faster than me.. yr a bldy education and yr thred..if i as a stpd question.. dont be afraid to say..i think i will go have a cuppa and come back soon..
  • #344
  • Sep 21, 2011 1:52am Sep 21, 2011 1:52am
Quoting danc
Thanks.....
I suggest you use IBFX MT4. It has got pretty accurate O/H/L/C!
  • #345
  • Sep 21, 2011 1:54am Sep 21, 2011 1:54am
ADR daily range, AWR, average weekly range, AMR average monthly range.
Useful concepts to assess Risk/Reward for sure. No problem at all mate!
  • #346
  • Sep 21, 2011 2:34am Sep 21, 2011 2:34am
http://img26.imageshack.us/img26/682...0210920112.png

Why not short sell XAU USD? Cause it's in indecision zone and also @ WP right now. And you don't enter when PA is stuck in the indecision zone. Outlook still remaind bullish. Im not saying it's cast in stone, but PA looks strong.
  • #347
  • Sep 21, 2011 2:57am Sep 21, 2011 2:57am
http://img101.imageshack.us/img101/1...fx21092011.png

Consider USDX D1 chart. Price action formed a nice resistance area as indicated on the chart. I think dollar won't be able to hold on to its gains for long now. It's about time it starts to dive lower, reason for EU, GU, AU to get stronger mid-term.
  • #348
  • Sep 21, 2011 3:38am Sep 21, 2011 3:38am
Quote
I also sold EU and AU right now. SL previous high. TP on EU is 3383. on AU TP is 1.0000.

I closed yesterday's possies EU +43 and AU + 37, overall not a bad run. Can and prolly will go lower but I will take what is given now and look for further entries later.

For today the plan remains the same - EU, AU long. GU long is cancelled.
  • #349
  • Sep 21, 2011 3:51am Sep 21, 2011 3:51am
http://img846.imageshack.us/img846/8432/gu21092011.png

Interesting to consider GU D1 chart. Obviously it's going lower, but when can we look for GU to reverse. I'd say a good enough area is 5520-5560.

The AMR on GU is out. The AWR got 140 points to go from current price. Current price is 5626. This then derives 5480. However 5530 is important MS2 level so It would be hard for PA to take it out.

I will be keeping an eye on GU once it arrives @ 5500 level.
  • #350
  • Sep 21, 2011 4:00am Sep 21, 2011 4:00am
going to take EU, AU long upon hourly close SL 15 TP + 125
  • #351
  • Sep 21, 2011 4:00am Sep 21, 2011 4:00am
Quoting ruffryders
going to take EU, AU long upon hourly close SL 15 TP + 125
reason for the trade - TL and 50 fib tech confluence.
  • #352
  • Sep 21, 2011 4:22am Sep 21, 2011 4:22am
http://img801.imageshack.us/img801/1...5021092011.png

Here's what I meant on EU. 50 fibo + TL.
  • #353
  • Sep 21, 2011 4:47am Sep 21, 2011 4:47am
Quoting ruffryders
going to take EU, AU long upon hourly close SL 15 TP + 125
Adjusted AUDUSD TP to 1.0368.
  • #354
  • Sep 21, 2011 6:21am Sep 21, 2011 6:21am
http://img64.imageshack.us/img64/723...sd21092011.png

quick update on gold. still focused on upside. only looking to sell if 1790-82 breaks. decent targets then are 1758-1762.

Prefer upside still, provided USDX D1 is out of monthly range now and met strong resistance.
  • #355
  • Sep 22, 2011 2:56am Sep 22, 2011 2:56am
wow, this dollar is going crazy, eu and gu caboom, I jumped in GU. EU next stop looks like 3420. GU very likely 5300. wow, very strong moves for sure.!
  • #356
  • Sep 22, 2011 2:59am Sep 22, 2011 2:59am
Quoting ruffryders
http://img64.imageshack.us/img64/723...sd21092011.png

quick update on gold. still focused on upside. only looking to sell if 1790-82 breaks. decent targets then are 1758-1762.

Prefer upside still, provided USDX D1 is out of monthly range now and met strong resistance.
QUICK UPDATE on XAU USD

Gold triangle resolved to the bottom, it's below WP and MP now. Only way is short right now. 1757-59 is taken out will signal 1700.

I did not short sell yesterday, reason being - if you saw gold M30 candles spiking up both up and down 10 dollars, you would know why! It was a mess for sure.

Now looking to short only, once again.
  • #357
  • Sep 22, 2011 3:05am Sep 22, 2011 3:05am
Quoting ruffryders
http://img849.imageshack.us/img849/1...onthchanne.png

Now lets add monthly pivot and the channel to H4. Comments on the chart. median line rejected. MS2 rejected with red long-wicked candle.

I'd say it's fair to say we are going lower. Looking to short sell below white area. TP initially @ 3600 and finally @ 3500.
Quick recap of H4 EUR USD posted SUNDAY

The PA went according to the suggested gameplan. However what did spoil my setups, which would yield 200+ on GU, EU, AU was the Sunday open market gap! Damn shame for sure!

Better luck next time and keep my mind open anyway.
  • #358
  • Sep 22, 2011 3:17am Sep 22, 2011 3:17am
http://img851.imageshack.us/img851/4...d122092011.png

Let's consider D1 USD CAD as a good indicator of the USDX strength. It's above WP, MP, MR1. MR2 @ 0280 is area of tech confluence, I would expect that once this area is reached USD CAD should start to retrace.
  • #359
  • Sep 22, 2011 3:30am Sep 22, 2011 3:30am
http://img190.imageshack.us/img190/899/euw122092011.png

Lets review EUR USD W1 chart. It's time to switch to HTF now to find hints of future PA.

1) Key area is 3400-3440. It's either make or break
2) If holds - will retrace 200-350 pips
3) If fails and breaks - next stop is 1.2000

It's important to note that what can kill EUR USD completely, is announcement of Greece default and as a consequence Italy/Spain defaults. This will completely kill off the EUR USD and send it to the new lows.

For right now I think it's very dangerous to trade. Because EU, GU, AU already done 200+ pips downside, no support has been found yet.

I would expect that even if we do retrace after a strong move down, price action will consolidate @ support levels for 1-3 days before reversing.

Right now I would say best gameplan is to stand aside and wait for PA to find decent support. At least for this week. This week average weekly range is already blown through on all pairs. PA can either be very slow - or indecisive.
  • #360
  • Sep 22, 2011 3:39am Sep 22, 2011 3:39am
Also I would like to list all quarterly S/R and pivots.

Here are GU quarterly levels:


1.7374R3
1.7059R2
1.6539R1
1.6224quarter pivot
1.5704S1
1.5389S2
1.4869S3


Here are EU quarterly levels:


R31.5940
R21.5440
R11.4970
quarter pivot1.4470
S11.4000
S21.3500
S31.3030


Here are AUDUSD quarterly levels:

1.1783R3
1.1396R2
1.1060R1
1.0673quarter pivot
1.0337S1
0.9950S2
0.9614S3

Here are USDCAD quarterly levels:

1.0350R3
1.0131R2
0.9882R1
0.9663quarter pivot
0.9414S1
0.9195S2
0.8946S3
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