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vsa with Malcolm

  • #21,641
  • Sep 20, 2011 10:49am Sep 20, 2011 10:49am
Busy here today, good to see!
  • #21,642
  • Sep 20, 2011 11:11am Sep 20, 2011 11:11am
Quoting pres78
Lot 1 closed at 87.05, lot 2 left at BE (87.35)...

This trade is countertrend on all but the 1min chart so I don't expect much. If 5min turns to down the perhaps an add on short... Either way London is leaving soon so it's hard to say what NY will do.
Added a short off a 1min ND entry at 87.10... 5min hull rolling over and red... We should see at least 86.40ish zone

Moved trade 1 from 87.35 to 87.10 SL to book +25, SL on trade 2 moved to BE
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #21,643
  • Sep 20, 2011 11:28am Sep 20, 2011 11:28am
Quoting pres78
Added a short off a 1min ND entry at 87.10... 5min hull rolling over and red... We should see at least 86.40ish zone

Moved trade 1 from 87.35 to 87.10 SL to book +25, SL on trade 2 moved to BE
Closed both at 86.70... see what tommorow brings. Perhaps another crazy 80+ pip move at Asia open.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #21,644
  • Sep 20, 2011 11:46am Sep 20, 2011 11:46am
Quoting pres78
Closed both at 86.70... see what tommorow brings. Perhaps another crazy 80+ pip move at Asia open.
It seems I closed my Oil shorts a bit early (really I was just tired of trading today) as we have proceeded down into the 86.40 zone I mentioned in an earlier post... we have actaully pushed through that PA cluster from 86.50-86.30 and have dipped as low as 86.20...

Let's see 50 more pips x 2 trades = who cares the market will still be there tommorow...

Have a good one.

Edit - 15min ND (5min No Buying Pressure gave a nice entry in a falling market at 86.55

- 1min ND gave a nice entry in a falling market at 86.65

Both would have given nice returns with a target at the DPV around 86.25
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #21,645
  • Sep 20, 2011 11:52am Sep 20, 2011 11:52am
I lied I am now long at 86.30 on Oil...

Looking for 86.45-86.60
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #21,646
  • Sep 20, 2011 12:05pm Sep 20, 2011 12:05pm
Quoting pres78
I lied I am now long at 86.30 on Oil...

Looking for 86.45-86.60
Target 1 hit at 86.60 (not bad for a 15pip stop, nice 2:1). Lot 2 moved to BE...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #21,647
  • Sep 20, 2011 12:13pm Sep 20, 2011 12:13pm
Quoting pres78
Target 1 hit at 86.60 (not bad for a 15pip stop, nice 2:1). Lot 2 moved to BE...
Added on at 86.70... Looking for 86.90-87.00
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #21,648
  • Sep 20, 2011 12:18pm Sep 20, 2011 12:18pm
Well, seems like the gang is back. Not to be outdone when the latest fashion hits, here's is a very obedient euro during NY morning. Times are NY, 4min chart, futures.

Note how obediently S1 was adhered to for London start. A silly move up, and identifiable upthrust volumes at the peaks, eventually into R1, and then the really big volume this NY morning around 8:45. A new trigger line is established (dashed line), and we dip down into yesterday's VWAP, significant stopping volume, and a zone of confluence with a previous low providing support, yesterday's close providing support, and back up we go smack dab into the trigger line and R1 for another rejection. It's chart gravy.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4minEU.gif Size: 66 KB
  • #21,649
  • Sep 20, 2011 12:26pm Sep 20, 2011 12:26pm
Quoting Beljevina
Well, seems like the gang is back. Not to be outdone when the latest fashion hits, here's is a very obedient euro during NY morning. Times are NY, 4min chart, futures.

Note how obediently S1 was adhered to for London start. A silly move up, and identifiable upthrust volumes at the peaks, eventually into R1, and then the really big volume this NY morning around 8:45. A new trigger line is established (dashed line), and we dip down into yesterday's VWAP, significant stopping volume, and a zone of confluence with a previous low providing support,...
Hey Tom... nice to see you back in the mix.

Are you telling me that the wide spread upbar on really high volume which closed down around it's middle was weakness and not strength... who would have known

How many herd longs got trapped and slaughtered on that bar do you suppose?
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #21,650
  • Sep 20, 2011 12:41pm Sep 20, 2011 12:41pm
Quoting pres78
Added on at 86.70... Looking for 86.90-87.00
Not going anywhere so I closed both trades at 86.70 one in profit the other at BE.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #21,651
  • Sep 20, 2011 1:03pm Sep 20, 2011 1:03pm
Quoting pres78
Are you telling me that the wide spread upbar on really high volume which closed down around it's middle was weakness and not strength... who would have known

How many herd longs got trapped and slaughtered on that bar do you suppose?
Actually, funny you should ask how many were trapped? Here's the answer.

Here's a volume ladder showing exactly who entered where, when and with how many contracts. The COT values (delta buyers or sellers winning) is at the very bottom of the chart, under each bar, right above the time. Note how starting at 8:45, the sellers take over. And within that 15min 8:45 bar, check how many trapped buyers at the top, ie., 448 contracts alone bought at the 1.3727 level alone. Many of course had to eventually bail as that marked the top and sellers took over for the NY day.

(Just for clarification, each 15min bar shows sellers on the left, buyers on the right. The values immediately above and below the bars are how many delta buyers are above the bar close, and how many delta sellers are below the open.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #21,652
  • Sep 20, 2011 1:19pm Sep 20, 2011 1:19pm
Quoting Beljevina
Actually, funny you should ask how many were trapped? Here's the answer.

Here's a volume ladder showing exactly who entered where, when and with how many contracts. The COT values (delta buyers or sellers winning) is at the very bottom of the chart, under each bar, right above the time. Note how starting at 8:45, the sellers take over. And within that 15min 8:45 bar, check how many trapped buyers at the top, ie., 448 contracts alone bought at the 1.3727 level alone. Many of course had to eventually bail as that marked the top and...
Not the first time you have shown me that ladder but it's still impressive... So that's the EUR futures contract?

I may just have to invest in NT just so I can use the volume ladder as an added trading tool. You could almost trade it alone once you fully understood it. The ladder is a bit like a bar by bar DOM which remains fixed as the bar is formed allowing you to anylize it after the fact.

How does the ladder identify the bars open and close?
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #21,653
  • Sep 20, 2011 1:25pm Sep 20, 2011 1:25pm
Quoting pres78
Not the first time you have shown me that ladder but it's still impressive... So that's the EUR futures contract?

I may just have to invest in NT just so I can use the volume ladder as an added trading tool. You could almost trade it alone once you fully understood it. The ladder is a bit like a bar by bar DOM which remains fixed as the bar is formed allowing you to anylize it after the fact.

How does the ladder identify the bars open and close?
the candles are actually right in the middle of the 'ladder'


Beljevina, do u find the 'volume ladder' useful ? like, do u actually look at it b4 u use ur vsa skills for entry?
  • #21,654
  • Sep 20, 2011 1:32pm Sep 20, 2011 1:32pm
Quoting Mtm
the candles are actually right in the middle of the 'ladder'


Beljevina, do u find this information useful ? like, do u actually look at it b4 u use ur vsa skills for entry?
Yeah I am a dummy... clear as mud now those candle are. Thanks MTM.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #21,655
  • Sep 20, 2011 1:41pm Sep 20, 2011 1:41pm
Quoting pres78
Not the first time you have shown me that ladder but it's still impressive... So that's the EUR futures contract?

I may just have to invest in NT just so I can use the volume ladder as an added trading tool. You could almost trade it alone once you fully understood it. The ladder is a bit like a bar by bar DOM which remains fixed as the bar is formed allowing you to anylize it after the fact.

How does the ladder identify the bars open and close?
Quoting Mtm
Beljevina, do u find the 'volume ladder' useful ? like, do u actually look at it b4 u use ur vsa skills for entry?
Yep, 6E/Euro December futures contracts. I perhaps didn't stretch the size of the candles to be wide enough (too much stuff to fit on the screen), but you will see a salmon and blue candle in-between the sellers and buyers of each 15 min bar. Of course any time frame of candles is selectable, as other other chart types.

I actually just used it to identify the likelihood of a oil breakout right a 2pm NY time rolled around. 2pm is the "let's get back to work" time benchmark for oil and equities. Oil was in a down channel from the 87.70 top, kind of making a bull flag (2 minute chart). A spike up appeared, that looked like an upthrust and a wicky top candle, but my CL volume ladder showed huge buying flows - that was a sign it was going to burst upwards, and indeed it did, , from 86.60 to 87.25. If you're interested in those ladders/charts, let me know.

Yes, it's almost tradeable on it's own; it certainly helps immensely in validating what is behind high volume in up and down moves, and I find it immensely valuable for better entries and confirmation of trend change.

Order Flow Analytics is a great tool; here is an excellent video on the topic, regardless of whether one uses order flow or not, there are some very good concepts in here on this style of trading; it's 45minutes, and worth every moment - I will be watching it a second time. The trader who made it reveals how as a market maker, he is targeting weak holders in ES as a normal course of business, hence, the movement characteristics that ES has.
  • #21,656
  • Sep 20, 2011 1:54pm Sep 20, 2011 1:54pm
Quoting Beljevina
Yep, 6E/Euro December futures contracts. I perhaps didn't stretch the size of the candles to be wide enough (too much stuff to fit on the screen), but you will see a salmon and blue candle in-between the sellers and buyers of each 15 min bar. Of course any time frame of candles is selectable, as other other chart types.

I actually just used it to identify the likelihood of a oil breakout right a 2pm NY time rolled around. 2pm is the "let's get back to work" time benchmark for oil and equities. Oil was in a down channel from the 87.70 top, kind...
Thanks Tom will check that out tonight. Yes if you could email me that chart showing the breakout (you have the address)...

I too saw a long in that area (see my post above) and entered a second trade at 86.70 looking for at least 87.00. Closed out too early and boom up we went as thought and then some to 87.20ish...

Had I been using the ladder I would have trusted my analysis even more and held that long rather than closing out at BE.

OK Tom you've sold me on looking even harded at NT... (do you own shares? )
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #21,657
  • Sep 20, 2011 2:17pm Sep 20, 2011 2:17pm
Quoting pres78
I too saw a long in that area (see my post above) and entered a second trade at 86.70 looking for at least 87.00. Closed out too early and boom up we went as thought and then some to 87.20ish...

Had I been using the ladder I would have trusted my analysis even more and held that long rather than closing out at BE.

OK Tom you've sold me on looking even harded at NT... (do you own shares? )
Don't own shares; NT has it's bugs, but one can more or less work around them.

Since I did such a pretty job of annotating the charts and the move I talked about, I've posted them here for all. (had to host one externally, since it's so big and FF shrunk it down due to space considerations)

http://i.imgur.com/haBVA.gif
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2 min oil.gif Size: 75 KB
  • #21,658
  • Sep 20, 2011 3:32pm Sep 20, 2011 3:32pm
Thanks for the posts Pres. I enjoyed this little forey into the mind of a VSA master.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #21,659
  • Sep 20, 2011 3:37pm Sep 20, 2011 3:37pm
Some thoughts about what EU/US looked to me on a 5 min chart.

Market was driven down yesterday with an impressive wide spread bar. Then developed a Wyckoff Wave with a PS, a SC an AR a ST and a ND area. Price went down to retest the accumulation zone and did so with a ST, followed with a ND, a SO, and another ST. Then in the Frankfurt opening I saw a 2BR that pushed the market upun till the bottom of the Delta Zone that was generated by the driven down movement. And then my first entry showed up.

1.Secondary Test followed by a two bar test on volume less than the previous two bars. The signal was confirmed with the third bar as it took off the hi’s of that second bar. The signal was followed by a nice Effort to Rise bar that drove the price into the Delta Zone until a Wyckoff wave within a Wyckoff wave meaning that the first WW was a minor wave on what happened to be the first part of a greater WW.

2.On that bigger WW price made a BC followed by a ND bar signaled with the number 2. That would be a signal to go short as we had SOW on the background… however, after the BC I was expecting an AR and some kind of retest of that area so I did not entered on that signal. Market gave us that AR but then it was unable to cross down that area and arose to show a nice UT just above the BC area.

3.That was the third signal. Entering the market as price took off the low of that UT bar. We had SOW on the back ground on the form of a BC. Market went down to retest the AR area where it found demand and it jumped up the make a nice wide range second UT.

4.That wide spread UT was followed with a bar that closed above its open price, on volume lower than previous two bars so a ND lookalike. I would prefer a bar making a new hi on a smaller range and with even less volume so not in my plan to short the market there. Price moved down below the previous AR area and then did a minor WW. It gave us the ps, and a sc (not in caps as it was a minor WW) but there was no AR or it was too far for me to consider… Price moved to retest the previous BC area and did so with a squat.

I would have taken that signal and shorted the market but the minor WW was showing strength in the background so not in my plan to shell against the possible strength.

Hope it makes sense.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #21,660
  • Sep 20, 2011 4:37pm Sep 20, 2011 4:37pm
Quoting HiddenGap
Thanks for the posts Pres. I enjoyed this little forey into the mind of a VSA master.
Hey that means a lot coming from one of the traders who helped me get where I am (far from a Master and hope to never be, learning and growing is too much fun)... It's been a long road but the path has become much less bumpy.

Hope to see some more charts posted here from everyone newbie and vetran alike... including you.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
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