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vsa with Malcolm

  • #21,561
  • Sep 19, 2011 6:38am Sep 19, 2011 6:38am
Quoting Intel
Heres my trade. Exited for non VSA reasons. Your initial analysis has some flaws. If noone else comments, I will go over them later.
Took a similar short on the 5 min. I took the second ND as it met all of my criteria.

1. Hull has turned red
2. I was below the highest volume bars low
3. ND closed right on the low of the highest volume bar

The first ND I marked was also a good entry as we had seen some effort to rise through the body of the day's opening bar (marked with the fib). Previous efforts failed to take out this bars high. We had a previous rejection and that ultra high volume SO type bar which produces no upside results. Next bar was down so supply was still present, then we made another effort to rise and we see SM pull out their upside interest with that ND with the same high as the higher volume upbar just before.

The thing to remember is that we started trending down on Thursday - Friday after that major buyingh climax bar on Thursday. We Friday in the body of this bar between the low and the close levels (never able to take out the close or the high).

3700 is key for me before I look for any longs and then the low of that Thursday bar around 3770 is the furthest target I would look for. The body of that bar is around 150pips long on the 1hr chart and could keep any significant moves up at bay until firstly the close and then the high are taken out and tested IMHO.
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #21,562
  • Sep 19, 2011 6:52am Sep 19, 2011 6:52am
Quoting pres78
Took a similar short on the 5 min. I took the second ND as it met all of my criteria.

1. Hull has turned red
2. I was below the highest volume bars low
3. ND closed right on the low of the highest volume bar

The first ND I marked was also a good entry as we had seen some effort to rise through the body of the day's opening bar (marked with the fib). Previous efforts failed to take out this bars high. We had a previous rejection and that ultra high volume SO type bar which produces no upside results. Next bar was down so supply was still present,...
Your 2nd ND was an excellent place for an add on entry. Had I been interested in staying in the trade, I would definately have re entered here. As it was, I exited shortly after it.
  • #21,563
  • Sep 19, 2011 7:36am Sep 19, 2011 7:36am
Quoting Intel
If noone else comments, I will go over them later.
You and pres are saying because of thursday that any longs would be considered counter trend?
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  • #21,564
  • Sep 19, 2011 7:43am Sep 19, 2011 7:43am
Quoting SimpleDev
You and pres are saying because of thursday that any longs would be considered counter trend?
Not going to speak for Intel I mentioned that the 1hr chart started to show some roll over to downtrend after that bar on Thursday. That bar is very weak and until it is taken out and tested topside will be limited by it. Nothing wrong with some countertrend trading as I do this all the time but am careful with my tragets regongizing what is in major control in the background.

Intel I believe does a lot of countertrend trading so he can speak more on his reasonings... One thing of note for sure is that we hadn't yet even taken out the Asian highs for the day and we were seeing signs of weakness as we approached it and failed to take it out.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #21,565
  • Sep 19, 2011 7:52am Sep 19, 2011 7:52am
Quoting pres78
Not going to speak for Intel I mentioned that the 1hr chart started to show some roll over to downtrend after that bar on Thursday. That bar is very weak and until it is taken out and tested topside will be limited by it. Nothing wrong with some countertrend trading as I do this all the time but am careful with my tragets regongizing what is in major control in the background.

Intel I believe does a lot of countertrend trading so he can speak more on his reasonings... One thing of note for sure is that we hadn't yet even taken out the Asian highs...
You attached a 4hr chart and I find that the BC bar stands out even more volume wise on the 1hr (well for my broker anyway). The 4hr hull has also turned over and is red and that BC bar hit and failed right at that 4hr upper trend line.
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #21,566
  • Sep 19, 2011 9:18am Sep 19, 2011 9:18am
Weakness entered the market during the NY spot market / NYSE market openings on EU, GU, ES and Oil on Thursday...

I was watching all 4 of these after that weekend gap down to see if the weakness would continue or if we would see a trap down with SOS. (The GAP traders must be shitting their pants waiting for those gaps to close)!

I took the EU trade noted in my earlier post which was closed and then a new short taken earlier off the 5min chart after more failed attempts to rally...

Weakness is still in control and Oil is reacting perfectly to this. On the 1hr chart we had a move down to the lower 4hr trendline followed by a weak retrace back to the days high ending as a narrow range ND bar (right before NY spot market open)... HMM SM hint perhaps. I set my order at the low 87.08 (set order at 87.00) and waited.

Hull was red, we were back up at the higher lower 4hr trendline with no interest to the topside... Major SOW in the background. All stars were aligned for this Monday drop off. Does the high volume and crazy spread on that last closed bar concern me? A little however Oil moves in crazy bursts and we did just take out the lower trendline and are on our way to taking on last weeks low so I suspect that the volume is demand being absorbed (oh and the fact that NY spot and NYSE traders are now both in the markets selling to the herd)...
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #21,567
  • Sep 19, 2011 9:35am Sep 19, 2011 9:35am
Quoting pres78
Weakness entered the market during the NY spot market / NYSE market openings on EU, GU, ES and Oil on Thursday...

I was watching all 4 of these after that weekend gap down to see if the weakness would continue or if we would see a trap down with SOS. (The GAP traders must be shitting their pants waiting for those gaps to close)!

I took the EU trade noted in my earlier post which was closed and then a new short taken earlier off the 5min chart after more failed attempts to rally...

Weakness is still in control and Oil is reacting perfectly...
Oil has found some support at 85.00 (Same zone as last weeks low)... keeping and eye on my short (moved well into a nice booked profit) and looking to see if a contertrend long presents itself at this level. 86.30 would be the get out safely for any long if it does happen however right now we are just seeing a weak retrace.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #21,568
  • Sep 19, 2011 9:47am Sep 19, 2011 9:47am
Quoting pres78
Oil has found some support at 85.00 (Same zone as last weeks low)... keeping and eye on my short (moved well into a nice booked profit) and looking to see if a contertrend long presents itself at this level. 86.30 would be the get out safely for any long if it does happen however right now we are just seeing a weak retrace.
Added another short at 85.40 looking to close out this trade at 85.10 leaving the other trade open...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #21,569
  • Sep 19, 2011 10:16am Sep 19, 2011 10:16am
Quoting pres78
Added another short at 85.40 looking to close out this trade at 85.10 leaving the other trade open...
Close both trades at 85.70... Net gain +100 on Oil today.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #21,570
  • Sep 19, 2011 10:21am Sep 19, 2011 10:21am
Quoting pres78
Close both trades at 85.70... Net gain +100 on Oil today.
Long at 85.80... Countertrend...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #21,571
  • Sep 19, 2011 11:03am Sep 19, 2011 11:03am
Quoting pres78
Long at 85.80... Countertrend...
Closed at 86.00 after I realised that we had a previous swing high resistance level at 86.00 from the move down today... we moved up to test 86.00 from below and it is again acting as a supply barrier for this move up from the days low. If it's broken finally 86.30 should provide next resistance with goos supply zone all the way to 87.00.

Going long at 85.90 if we get there looking this time to test the 86.30 on an afternoon crawl up. Just printed another 5 min NS.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #21,572
  • Sep 19, 2011 11:14am Sep 19, 2011 11:14am
Quoting pres78
Closed at 86.00 after I realised that we had a previous swing high resistance level at 86.00 from the move down today... we moved up to test 86.00 from below and it is again acting as a supply barrier for this move up from the days low. If it's broken finally 86.30 should provide next resistance with goos supply zone all the way to 87.00.

Going long at 85.90 if we get there looking this time to test the 86.30 on an afternoon crawl up. Just printed another 5 min NS.
Never broke the high but we did break the low of the ND which printed right after... In short at 85.75. Target open ATM.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #21,573
  • Sep 19, 2011 11:18am Sep 19, 2011 11:18am
Quoting pres78
Never broke the high but we did break the low of the ND which printed right after... In short at 85.75. Target open ATM.
Moved to BE, PA too choppy and I am tried of trading today. Waiting for tommorow's LO PA and see where we stand.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #21,574
  • Sep 19, 2011 11:32am Sep 19, 2011 11:32am
I was hoping that we could bring Malc's thread back to life but upon closer inspection her heart has stopped, she has flat lined and has been officially pronounced as being dead by the Coroner at 1:30 PM Atlantic Time on Monday September 19, 2011.

She was a good girl and she will be missed.

Let us have a moment of silence.
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #21,575
  • Sep 19, 2011 12:54pm Sep 19, 2011 12:54pm
Quoting pres78
I was hoping that we could bring Malc's thread back to life but upon closer inspection her heart has stopped, she has flat lined and has been officially pronounced as being dead by the Coroner at 1:30 PM Atlantic Time on Monday September 19, 2011.

She was a good girl and she will be missed.

Let us have a moment of silence.
Inserted Video
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #21,576
  • Sep 19, 2011 1:02pm Sep 19, 2011 1:02pm
Quoting pres78
I was hoping that we could .....
wasnt here for a waile, and today thought it was nice that some of you continued this great thread.....


Now, Im no expert but pres's last chart looks like accumulation to me...lol
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  • #21,577
  • Sep 19, 2011 1:06pm Sep 19, 2011 1:06pm
Actually, the last few pages are full of nuggets from some very good VSAers. Quality posts like theses will surely give this thread life.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #21,578
  • Sep 19, 2011 1:20pm Sep 19, 2011 1:20pm
Quoting pipon
..Im no expert but pres's last chart looks like accumulation to me...lol
This is accumulation:
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #21,579
  • Sep 19, 2011 3:40pm Sep 19, 2011 3:40pm
Quoting HiddenGap
This is accumulation:
And a nice example of a NS in a rising market after a push through resistance / supply... nice chart HG.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #21,580
  • Sep 19, 2011 5:01pm Sep 19, 2011 5:01pm
I just wanted to share some thoughts about what EU/US looked to me today on a 5 min chart.

Marked open with a gap above us, and during Asian session the market moved mostly sideways. Three hours before Frankfurt’s open, price had moved in a very narrow sideway channel

1. Number one is our first trading opportunity. A test of the support on the form of a shake out. A Down bar with quite volume but less than previous two bars closing on the up third of its range with SOS on the backgroud, in this case a Wyckoff wave of accumulation.

2.Number two is a second test of the AR area. Excellent opportunity to add on the position or to go long if no in yet. A down bar with volume less than the previous two bars closing on the up third of its range. We got a nice SO on the same AR area. Then price reached a previous zone of support now resistance. There was a ND bar as BB were showing their lack of interest in moving the market higher.

3.The third opportunity was selling the up trust after the ND bar.

4.If not in the market yet a fourth opportunity showed up with a no demand bar challenging that UT. From there the market fell nicely until a Preliminary Support zone. Followed by a Secondary Test and some signs of weakness on the form of ND, and UT. The market resumed its down movement, but with the PS below us Ie did not shorted. Marked broke that PS area and created a new Wyckoff Wave with nice volume on the preliminary support, a nice selling climax, an AR, a nice SO, and our fifth trading opportunity.

5.It was a test of the supply at the area of PS. A down bar, with less volume than the previous two bars, closing on the up third of its range, that drove the market nicely till the PSY area. It ended up being a reacumulation area and price rose up with a nice rally after a NS and a T. I was out of the market by that time but it did a nice Wyckoff wave of distribution with its PSY, its ST, its BC, the AR witch has just been broken… Lets see tomorrow what it shows us.

Hope it makes sense.
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