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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #27,181
  • Sep 15, 2011 4:34pm Sep 15, 2011 4:34pm
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000045879 interesting view on iron balls and rougue traiding !!

kind greets, PAX
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #27,182
  • Sep 15, 2011 10:55pm Sep 15, 2011 10:55pm
Hi Mamood,

How are you. Nice to have you back. Been missing you.

Cheers.
  • #27,183
  • Sep 15, 2011 11:01pm Sep 15, 2011 11:01pm
Quoting GEfx
Hi Mamood, good to hear from you. Yep, I read this earlier today. My first thought was, if I had UBS's money, I could lose a lot more than 2BLN -- LOL. It's amazing these things can still happen. Good trading!
Hi GE,

How's things. You well?

Happy Trading

Cheers.
  • #27,184
  • Sep 16, 2011 4:02am Sep 16, 2011 4:02am
Quoting Jok
Hi GE,

How's things. You well?

Happy Trading

Cheers.
Hi Jok, yes everything is good and I am well. How are you? The seasons are changing here in the US Midwest, with temps falling last night to about 34 degrees F. Cold. Take care
  • #27,185
  • Sep 16, 2011 7:02am Sep 16, 2011 7:02am
Quoting GEfx
Hi Jok, yes everything is good and I am well. How are you? The seasons are changing here in the US Midwest, with temps falling last night to about 34 degrees F. Cold. Take care

I am good, thanks. That's cold. The thread is so quiet.

Cheers.
  • #27,186
  • Sep 16, 2011 2:06pm Sep 16, 2011 2:06pm
markets look quiet now>>> i am curious to see how it is around the US close with options expiring >>quadruple witching day. i don't know but think they expire around the close ???

good weekend everyone, pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #27,187
  • Sep 16, 2011 2:38pm Sep 16, 2011 2:38pm
from the movie about nick leeson...rogue trader,,, i would not be suprised FTi made some money from him on topix exchange??? anyway, i remember, he was pissed a good bank like barrings was ruined!! i many times i remember this history when i try to rescue a bad trade.
Inserted Video
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #27,188
  • Sep 17, 2011 3:17am Sep 17, 2011 3:17am
I'm re-reading this thread for the third time.
Starting again from the first page and writing down my new commentary.
Slowly... sipping each line... with no hurry...
Trying, in the meantime, to improve my dance feeling and technique.
(...easier said than done...)

I'm delighted. I just wanted to say thank to fti and to you all.

With a pinch of envy: the original group was very, very lucky.
I wish I were there.
  • #27,189
  • Sep 17, 2011 5:00am Sep 17, 2011 5:00am
An interesting take on the EU crusis by the Economist

http://www.economist.com/node/21529046
  • #27,190
  • Edited 8:27am Sep 17, 2011 8:21am | Edited 8:27am
Quoting Setebos
An interesting take on the EU crusis by the Economist

http://www.economist.com/node/21529046
Thank you Setebos. The article is interesting.

Compared Greece / Argentine (to default or not*), the most important point
(in this comparison) is that Greece is not an exporter of commodities like Arg. and Greece's position
on the world and the international situation is not similar to Arg., but quite different.

Argentine was extremely lucky (or good timing, it was 2002/2003), as it coincided the devaluation
of its currency (after default) with:

A) the rise of commodity prices. (Argentine is a commodities exporter)
B) the appreciation of the Real, Brazil's currency, the main trading partner of Arg.
C) the devaluation of the USD

Again, I don't see Greece in a similar situation.

But that are only my thoughts, time will tell better than I,
as Bastiat would say, we should analyze what is not visible.

Rgs,

Textor

* Not to mention the political and social consequences of this event.
  • #27,191
  • Sep 17, 2011 12:50pm Sep 17, 2011 12:50pm
Quoting textor
....
* Not to mention the political and social consequences of this event.
And this is the main and biggest concern, IMO! Greeks are just on the edge and I am afraid to think what would happen if only a single police gunshot injures or kills someone among those people marching around!



Plamen
Bah...
  • #27,192
  • Sep 18, 2011 7:38am Sep 18, 2011 7:38am
Hi Tex,
yep, most interesting indeed. I don't think it's fair to make a parallel between Greece and Argentina either. Actually, apart from the default/devaluation I don't think they have much in common!
What I find most interesting, however, is the first half of the article - the one throwing some thoughts on the possible outcome of the situation should Greece or Germany (!) exit the EUR. Especially Germany. IMHO, should Germany exits we will deffinately see a following Greek default due to the soaring deutche mark. Just think of the amount of debt held by German banks/government which will be recalculated into the soaring new-old German currency. And should that happen then we are sure to see a series of deffaults, since Germany practically bailed half Europe. Poor Merkozy, what a dead end situation. It would have been so much straight forward to simply let capitalism do its thing and let Ireland and Greece default over a year ago - it would have all become just a bed memory by now.

Rgrds
S

Quoting textor
Thank you Setebos. The article is interesting.

Compared Greece / Argentine (to default or not*), the most important point
(in this comparison) is that Greece is not an exporter of commodities like Arg. and Greece's position
on the world and the international situation is not similar to Arg., but quite different.

Argentine was extremely lucky (or good timing, it was 2002/2003), as it coincided the devaluation
of its currency (after default) with:

A) the rise of commodity prices. (Argentine is a commodities exporter)
B)...
  • #27,193
  • Sep 18, 2011 9:23am Sep 18, 2011 9:23am
Quoting Setebos
Hi Tex,
yep, most interesting indeed. I don't think it's fair to make a parallel between Greece and Argentina either. Actually, apart from the default/devaluation I don't think they have much in common!
What I find most interesting, however, is the first half of the article - the one throwing some thoughts on the possible outcome of the situation should Greece or Germany (!) exit the EUR. Especially Germany. IMHO, should Germany exits we will deffinately see a following Greek default due to the soaring deutche mark. Just think of the amount of...
Your right, impulse suggests it isn't over just yet but under the circumstances, if you look deeper, I think the ECB is managing the situation quite well.
It seems as though what Europe is currently experiencing is an old twist on a type of "Triffin" dilemma.
If the Euro survives maybe all we're seeing is in fact the Euro's takeover of the role the USD has played as the go-to reserve currency.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triffin_dilemma
  • #27,194
  • Sep 18, 2011 4:17pm Sep 18, 2011 4:17pm
Quoting jacson101
Your right, impulse suggests it isn't over just yet but under the circumstances, if you look deeper, I think the ECB is managing the situation quite well.
It seems as though what Europe is currently experiencing is an old twist on a type of "Triffin" dilemma.
If the Euro survives maybe all we're seeing is in fact the Euro's takeover of the role the USD has played as the go-to reserve currency.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triffin_dilemma
That's a big IF, Jac
I tend to agree tho - if it survives it's likely to become a world reseve currency. More likely the second one in the beginning. People are fed up with the FED ponzi, but for the lack of no real alternative still go there (I don't think gold is an alternative to the dollar). It's the "historical way of doing things" paradox - it's not necessarily right, but hey - so many dead people couldn't be wrong either, could they?
Back on the EUR topic - it is now much more of a political and social problem than a financial one. The way out is clear - fiscal consolidation, euro bonds, the whole lot representing the fondations of a future federation. But it can't happen IMHO. Not yet. Germany and France are in an economic (and thus political) symbiosis with the corrupted EU model. Because of the week points in the EU the EUR stays moderatly weak promoting their exports. Strong exports mean strong economy and strong economy, combined as of recently with debt ownership, means political power. And political power is one thing you protect dearly.
It's a dead circle. Upcoming elections make Merkozy shake in their pants. I'm sure the average hard working and saving German or French citizen is far from happy to bail cheaters who have already spent their way to economic meltdown and now they need German and French money to keep the whee turning.
If I can borrow a line from George Carlin here "It's all bullshit folks. And it's bad for ya".

Rgrds
S
  • #27,195
  • Sep 18, 2011 4:56pm Sep 18, 2011 4:56pm
The Euro can't be the alternative reserve currency due to it's flawed structure, imho.The central banking authority doesn't have any *real* enforcement authority over delinquent member states other than withholding the next "tranche". Which if withholding funds to bring inline delinquent members.... just expedites the default they were trying to avoid.

What a real reserve currency needs is teeth, to enforce correct participation. however that opens up a whole new can of worms as members would have to relinquish sovereignty........ the crisis isn't that bad yet.......... so it needs to take another hit, the Euro design will be touted with the exception in that it's failure was in the flawed design in it's powers of authority..... so the next attempt must have those controls to ensure the survivability of the new union. the new world order.

It's inevitable, the euro will crumble, and it will make the Lehman Wall Street fiasco look like kids play. it will be so bad that countries will sell themselves to the grand scheme that will promise to bring back the standard of living all were used too.

fwiw.........
  • #27,196
  • Sep 18, 2011 5:50pm Sep 18, 2011 5:50pm
i agree, that the EURO, cannot be the reserve currency at this time.
too much instability. a Reserve currency needs to be dependable, and although the USD at this time seems like a depreciating asset the FED does have the capacity to regulate the USD. not to forget it has served its purpose in the past.

still in this world is considered a safe heaven currency, in a world that everything looks like shit, the USD at least is not as foul as the other currencies.

the CHF surprised the market with the floor, the YEN continues to battle appreciation, i think the USD is the only country powerful enough to bring security, at least at the moment.

between all the currencies in the world if on was to bet on safety it is STILL the USD
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #27,197
  • Sep 18, 2011 6:02pm Sep 18, 2011 6:02pm
Thought this was interesting and relevant to the current conversation. I think time has run out on the euro, and it is only a matter of time, unless the whole lot agrees to fiscal and political unification, within the next few weeks. How likely is that?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/c...-in-ruins.html

Edit: I hope the printing presses in Paris and Bonn are running overtime printing francs and DMs.
  • #27,198
  • Sep 18, 2011 7:35pm Sep 18, 2011 7:35pm
Is that Trichet speaking?

Inserted Video



..... but it seems that there is no audience .....

Rgs,

Textor
  • #27,199
  • Sep 19, 2011 1:58pm Sep 19, 2011 1:58pm
Quoting auxesis
The Euro can't be the alternative reserve currency due to it's flawed structure, imho.The central banking authority doesn't have any *real* enforcement authority over delinquent member states other than withholding the next "tranche". Which if withholding funds to bring inline delinquent members.... just expedites the default they were trying to avoid.

What a real reserve currency needs is teeth, to enforce correct participation. however that opens up a whole new can of worms as members would have to relinquish sovereignty........ the...
Yes
  • #27,200
  • Sep 19, 2011 2:11pm Sep 19, 2011 2:11pm
Home, sweet home...
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