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PTT Method (Profitable Trend Trading) in Forex

  • #241
  • Sep 14, 2011 9:04am Sep 14, 2011 9:04am
your right spyder just be careful with exposing ones self we may have ladies present lol. keeping with kelvin the trades are good but i get spooked with the stop loss its a night mare to me but i win.happy trading happy days
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #242
  • Sep 14, 2011 9:10am Sep 14, 2011 9:10am
Quoting nubchai
Spyder,

AJ pa as under the ema 50 so according to Kelvin's rules that would be a short. Also i see a bounce off the the 50 5 or 6 days ago.

For AU I do see the previous uptrend when I zoom out. But price broke below the 50

I'm not seeing consolidation in either ? I'll try to zoom your charts. I may be missing something.

Kelvin did say a bounce off the 50 is the optimal trade so I agree there.

Sandy
I think it's more than just being above or below the 50. That doesn't make a "trend". Here's an excerpt from Kelvin's post number 51.

I wanted to take just a second and share my 2-step method for entering trades every day, in hopes that this might bring clarity to the method and stimulate further discussion if you would like.

In this post I am sharing a screenshot of how I examine the market initially. At around 7:30 PM I begin looking through the different pairs. Because this is trend trading I have no interest in the name of the pair (other than to notice if I happen to be doubling up on a particular currency by using too many pairs of that currency).

The way I examine the pair is to zoom as far out (using the magnifying glass with the - in it) as the MT-4 platform will allow. Once I get zoomed way out I do see the overall direction of the market.

Some people like to look at a higher timeframe or two and that is a good method as well. However, I find that if I just zoom way out I can see clearly, at a glance, the overall direction of the market. I only want to trade those markets that are trending, in a clear direction (of course noting the retracements that all trends have) and have been for most of the viewable chart that I am looking at.

As an example, in the screenshot of GBP/CHF where we have zoomed way out, we can clearly see that this pair has been in a downtrend for a long time (as have all pairs that have CHF at the end).

So this, then becomes a viable pair to consider entering a trade. I write this pair's name down on my list of pairs to trade. And I keep examining pairs like this until I get a master list of pairs that all qualify to trade that particular day.

In contrast to GBP/CHF, notice EUR/USD. While there are indeed some tradable trends, overall the market has been ranging for the full time available with this chart. Even more apparent does this become when viewing the pair over just the past few weeks to a month. It is clear that this is a ranging market, both in the longer timeframe and especially in the shorter. We want to avoid this market for now until a trend establishes itself clearly.

So attached you will find the bigger picture of how I view the markets and pick each currency pair to trade for the day. The first chart is GBP/CHF and the second is EUR/USD.

Thank you for reading and post any comments that you would like.


Soooo...A/J is under the 50 but there's no trend there.

Looking back at A/U there are times when it broke below the 50 but came back up to follow the trend. This current break may result in a new trend direction but then again that would be predicting.

But again, everyone has there own technique.
  • #243
  • Sep 14, 2011 9:16am Sep 14, 2011 9:16am
looks like a couple of nice trades could've been had with the aud/jpy re ibs, i wasn't on them though
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #244
  • Sep 14, 2011 9:22am Sep 14, 2011 9:22am
Quoting spyderman
I think it's more than just being above or below the 50. That doesn't make a "trend". Here's an excerpt from Kelvin's post number 51.

I wanted to take just a second and share my 2-step method for entering trades every day, in hopes that this might bring clarity to the method and stimulate further discussion if you would like.

[i][b]In this post I am sharing a screenshot of how I examine the market initially. At around 7:30 PM I begin looking through the different pairs. Because this is trend trading I have no interest in the...

Spyder,

O.k.I did take acloser look at GJ, AU and AJ and I see what you mean. GJ is clearly in a beautiful downtrend. Aj is more of a roller coaster. When I look at AU I see consolidation in Apr-May-June and then a break up back to the long term trend followed by a break down into another roller coaster movement. It would be surprising if AU didn't return to the upside eventually but likeyou said that would be predicting.

Thanks for the insights.
  • #245
  • Sep 14, 2011 9:32am Sep 14, 2011 9:32am
Quoting spyderman
I think it's more than just being above or below the 50. That doesn't make a "trend". Here's an excerpt from Kelvin's post number 51.

I wanted to take just a second and share my 2-step method for entering trades every day, in hopes that this might bring clarity to the method and stimulate further discussion if you would like.

[i][b]In this post I am sharing a screenshot of how I examine the market initially. At around 7:30 PM I begin looking through the different pairs. Because this is trend trading I have no interest in the...
Ya, there in comes the judgement part of this method. Deciding if there is a trend/overall direction, strong enough to trade, after you get the IB.

Personally I took the AU because even though zoomed out the pair is overall long, it is below the 50 and has made a couple of lower highs. To me, even if it doesn't continue short for a long trend, it looks strong enough to possibly get some decent pips from.

Correction, I actually went in by accident sunday night, thought I saw an IB before I realized the candle had yet to close. So Im in from. 1.0401 with my current SL about 26 0r so pips postive.

P.S. I have noticed though looking over charts that a lot of the trades that end up moving the best start off from or very close to the 50 as kelvin said.
  • #246
  • Sep 14, 2011 9:36am Sep 14, 2011 9:36am
Yeah, it's all very subjective, reading what is and isn't a trend. And you're right dragon, sometimes there are times when you can grab a few pips.

For me, I'd like to find a way to trade some long term large trends that I can caterpillar (compound) on and then ride for a while. I would like to find a system that I don't have to monitor all the time.

I'm sure hoping this PTT from Kelvin works out to be that.
  • #247
  • Sep 14, 2011 9:37am Sep 14, 2011 9:37am
Quoting nubchai
Spyder,

O.k.I did take acloser look at GJ, AU and AJ and I see what you mean. GJ is clearly in a beautiful downtrend. Aj is more of a roller coaster. When I look at AU I see consolidation in Apr-May-June and then a break up back to the long term trend followed by a break down into another roller coaster movement. It would be surprising if AU didn't return to the upside eventually but likeyou said that would be predicting.

Thanks for the insights.

No prob. I'm just excited that I might finally have a system I can wrap my mind around and fits my personality. We'll see.
  • #248
  • Sep 14, 2011 9:43am Sep 14, 2011 9:43am
Quoting spyderman
Yeah, it's all very subjective, reading what is and isn't a trend. And you're right dragon, sometimes there are times when you can grab a few pips.

For me, I'd like to find a way to trade some long term large trends that I can caterpillar (compound) on and then ride for a while. I would like to find a system that I don't have to monitor all the time.

I'm sure hoping this PTT from Kelvin works out to be that.
Once in profit and locking in my SL behind the last high/low of the daily is working pretty well for me and taking all the stress out of it. Already had one trade last week make me +300 or so a few losses and bunch of small wins. Much better than looking at smaller time frames and S&R and trying to guess is it going to pass here? is it going to pass here?

P.S. currently up 63 on UJ and 182 on AU, with small pips locked in on both. I hope they both give me some big short candles before friday so I can lock in some good profit.
  • #249
  • Sep 14, 2011 4:09pm Sep 14, 2011 4:09pm
Hi all,

I'm also only in on gj right now. I think that is an obvious PTT trade. I think the other pairs don't show such a defined trend.. well, i do think ej is trending good. Anyway, Kelvin kinda layed out the 'if price is above 50ema, then look for long.. if under, look for short'. so the actual determination of a bonafied trend is kinda left up to each trader. I also think we're not supposed to try and spot a trend, but just look for IB's and enter according to price above/below ema. He did also mention the retrace and bounce off of ema, but he never said that was a hard rule of the method. For me, I like to see a bounce but do try to get in on a trend that looks like it broke some sort of trend line, such as a head&shoulders, double top, etc.

billytt, no worries. I know I have added my share of confusion to this method and am messing with PTT some. I also know there are others who have suggested a totally different method here and it all serves to totally confuse sometimes. Overall, I think the spirit of PTT is still here and I hope that can last.

ps. That damn uj.. I already got faked out by it 4 times, so this time i put in my pending order at what appears to be a channel support line. It made an IB yesterday and has now shot down through that. I shoulda stayed the course and followed the IB method. Oh well, live and learn..
  • #250
  • Sep 14, 2011 4:33pm Sep 14, 2011 4:33pm
a big congratulations on that one. you can't argue with common sence.
keep it comming!
  • #251
  • Sep 14, 2011 4:42pm Sep 14, 2011 4:42pm
what are they?
  • #252
  • Sep 14, 2011 4:42pm Sep 14, 2011 4:42pm
Quoting alto
Hi all,

I'm also only in on gj right now. I think that is an obvious PTT trade. I think the other pairs don't show such a defined trend.. well, i do think ej is trending good. Anyway, Kelvin kinda layed out the 'if price is above 50ema, then look for long.. if under, look for short'. so the actual determination of a bonafied trend is kinda left up to each trader. I also think we're not supposed to try and spot a trend, but just look for IB's and enter according to price above/below ema. He did also mention the retrace and bounce off of ema,...
Alto,

You might want to reread Kelvin's post #51. It really helped me see how to look for the trend.
  • #253
  • Sep 14, 2011 4:45pm Sep 14, 2011 4:45pm
You want to talk about an obscure pair...I've got a buy stop in on the USD/TRY. Heck I don't even know what that is... but it's trending with an IB.
  • #254
  • Sep 14, 2011 4:53pm Sep 14, 2011 4:53pm
Quoting spyderman
You want to talk about an obscure pair...I've got a buy stop in on the USD/TRY. Heck I don't even know what that is... but it's trending with an IB.
too much spread on usd/try is it worth it? you ask yourself!
  • #255
  • Sep 14, 2011 4:59pm Sep 14, 2011 4:59pm
Buy Stop usd/cad 0.9940 SL 0.9844 TP 1.0025
Sell Stop 0.9842 SL 0.9942 TP 0.9755.
Good Luck! Lets see what this will bring us.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ptt.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #256
  • Sep 14, 2011 5:08pm Sep 14, 2011 5:08pm
You may be right behman...

About the USD/TRY that is, not the U/CAD...
  • #257
  • Sep 14, 2011 5:21pm Sep 14, 2011 5:21pm
Is this tradable according to the rules?

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #258
  • Sep 14, 2011 5:32pm Sep 14, 2011 5:32pm
Quoting Olu
Is this tradable according to the rules?

Olu

If you're referring to the U/Cad...not by Kelvin's rules. It's nowhere near an uptrend.
  • #259
  • Sep 14, 2011 5:32pm Sep 14, 2011 5:32pm
Quoting Olu
Is this tradable according to the rules?

Olu
If todays d1 candle doesn't break past the last, before close, it's an IB, but I'd be careful with this pair.

Zooming out and looking at the big picture it's pretty much in a wide range.

And it's already about 300 pips short past the 50, so it might just retrace up to it. So, just going short because it's below the 50, might not be such a hot idea IMO.

It could work out for either a long or short, but there isn't a very strong trend either way.

If you limit your risk to 30 pips and .5 percent, it might be worth a try.

That's the real strenth of this method is the low risk/small stop loss, as when you do catch a big winner it outstrips the losers a lot.
  • #260
  • Sep 14, 2011 5:40pm Sep 14, 2011 5:40pm
Quoting KumoDragon
If todays d1 candle doesn't break past the last, before close, it's an IB, but I'd be careful with this pair.

Zooming out and looking at the big picture it's pretty much in a wide range.

And it's already about 300 pips short past the 50, so it might just retrace up to it. So, just going short because it's below the 50, might not be such a hot idea IMO.

It could work out for either a long or short, but there isn't a very strong trend either way.

If you limit your risk to 30 pips and .5 percent, it might be worth a try.

That's the real...
would you be happier with nzdcad?

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
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