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Trading Price Pivots

  • #601
  • Sep 13, 2011 7:04am Sep 13, 2011 7:04am
Platform froze as I was putting in my order, hence got in much higher. Ideally I would have liked to enter somewhere in the blue zone…
If price should go even lower (as in the previous zones I have defined) I will add if I get the chance and like PA
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  • #602
  • Sep 13, 2011 11:18am Sep 13, 2011 11:18am
Price has just hit H1 demand. In the charts (D1/4H) blue rectangles are daily levels (above price supply and below it demand), pink 4h and white 1h (Demand in this case for both). Ideally I would like to see price come down to the bold black TL where we also have daily demand sitting there. So watching for a bullish reaction to start winding down my trades.
CB
NB: EJ was closed for -230 pips and app -1.5%
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  • #603
  • Sep 13, 2011 1:01pm Sep 13, 2011 1:01pm
It looks like the USDX has some unfinished business before going back up. It had no reaction whatsoever to the big highlighted supply zone which means now it will act as demand... So with this I'm expecting some much lower EU after its retrace is over AND I'm not touching it before we know where we stand fundamentally.

Cheers,
CB
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  • #604
  • Sep 13, 2011 5:15pm Sep 13, 2011 5:15pm
Quoting Chantalb
EURAUD bounces off daily demand and also RN (round #) 1.30000 also giving us a pivot low. Blue area is the latest d1 demand zone and green is that just before it but they both overlap (this is the gold zone in between green and blue). This is not a prime setup because we have very strong supply level ahead (in Tomato)... So if I do take this trade, tomato area will be tp1 then RN (1.35000) tp2... We'll see....
[color=black][font=Verdana]It looks like it is setting up strongly in zone 3 which is not exactly...
I'm following this with great interest. Did you close this trade at 1.3300? Looks like it's right at the bottom of your "tomato" zone in the pic. Looking to the left I can see why - price loves that 1.3300 zone.
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Luck occurs when preparation meets with opportunity.
  • #605
  • Sep 14, 2011 2:36am Sep 14, 2011 2:36am
A-F y EU-GBP.... D1-M30
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  • #606
  • Edited 7:51am Sep 14, 2011 3:36am | Edited 7:51am
Quoting AlienFrog
I'm following this with great interest. Did you close this trade at 1.3300? Looks like it's right at the bottom of your "tomato" zone in the pic. Looking to the left I can see why - price loves that 1.3300 zone.
Unfortunately I was asleep when we hit that area and my stop was at BE+, so got taken out overnight. I’m just very wary of euro crosses these days and am treading very carefully around them. Have you traded this yet? Post some charts and we’ll discuss them
Cheers,
CB
  • #607
  • Edited 4:02am Sep 14, 2011 3:40am | Edited 4:02am
Quoting porfirio
A-F y EU-GBP.... D1-M30
Good Luck friend

Hey watch out for the pink zone (EURGBP) highlighted in the chart below...
  • #608
  • Sep 14, 2011 3:58am Sep 14, 2011 3:58am
Took a short on USDCAD, the structure came at the third touch of TL and at 50%. Now this is counter the monthly and any announcement could make it sky rocket. The only direct concern I have is the zone below in pink where once price gets there could bounce.
Wanted to take the long on EURGBP, but as I said I am not trusting these clowns in Europe. Also the entry I wanted to take was on H1 and we have a very strong 4h supply just ahead in pink. On the 1h this bearish candle engulfed 16 previous ones! Now this means bear business… So no trade on this pair for me just yet.
All the best on your trades,
CB
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  • #609
  • Sep 14, 2011 5:03am Sep 14, 2011 5:03am
Quoting Chantalb
Unfortunately I was asleep when we hit that area and my stop was at BE+, so got taken out overnight.
Man, I hate it when that happens!

Last night when I posted that chart I figured it would do one of three things, in order of highest probability first:

1) Bounce off TL and continue downtrend
2) Bounce off TL and start ranging between 1.3300 and 1.3200
3) Blow through that range (the "tomato zone") and continue upward

I did not trade it because even though I though it would bounce it was still trending and I wasn't comfortable. As you can see it blew right through that consolidation zone, which I thought would be least likely.

I don't mind being wrong if I'm not in a trade!
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Luck occurs when preparation meets with opportunity.
  • #610
  • Sep 14, 2011 5:25am Sep 14, 2011 5:25am
Quoting Chantalb

Wanted to take the long on EURGBP, but as I said I am not trusting these clowns in Europe.
I'm still watching EJ. And it's decision time. It looks like I should go long here with a target just below 108 (previous support).

I don't think I'll pull the trigger though. As you say, I just can't bet with the Euro on a high TF.

How do my charts look? Daily formed another pivot (first chart), I put the fib on the signal and confirmation candles, zoomed to H1 (second chart), and saw two bullish formations.

Still practicing to make sure I have it right!
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Luck occurs when preparation meets with opportunity.
  • #611
  • Sep 14, 2011 7:49am Sep 14, 2011 7:49am
Quoting AlienFrog
Man, I hate it when that happens!

Last night when I posted that chart I figured it would do one of three things, in order of highest probability first:

1) Bounce off TL and continue downtrend
2) Bounce off TL and start ranging between 1.3300 and 1.3200
3) Blow through that range (the "tomato zone") and continue upward

I did not trade it because even though I though it would bounce it was still trending and I wasn't comfortable. As you can see it blew right through that consolidation zone, which I thought would be least likely.

I...
Very good thoughts there
If there is one thing I may suggest if you don’t mind, trendlines are much more meaningful drawn off a line chart. Check it out... on the same chart for instance you have in this post draw another off a line chart and compare them. Notice on the 4h where the candle closed... nice ha? Based on the traditional TL you have there you would have been waiting for a reaction/cross when price had in real passed (and closed beyond) the barrier 8 hours earlier...
Hope this was helpful...
CB
  • #612
  • Sep 14, 2011 8:19am Sep 14, 2011 8:19am
Quoting AlienFrog
I'm still watching EJ. And it's decision time. It looks like I should go long here with a target just below 108 (previous support).
Still practicing to make sure I have it right!
Yes you are right about decision time and it should spell TIMES…. Many many decisions to be taken soon. The thing with “all time low” is no one really knows we have hit bottom yet, that was exactly what I was thinking when in that trade last week. And what ended up happening was for me taking a much bigger loss that I had to.
Now on your trade setup, that is not a setup I would consider. The confirmation candle is bearish and it is an inside bar. Your fib is not set PP to confirmation, but PP Low to PP high. You can do that if you want on let’s say outside bars or engulfing bars if you expect a continuation of a move before getting PP. That is what I tried to do yesterday with EURGBP but did not get a chance as I was away when the setup triggered.
Look at daily charts and check out what are the best Price Pivots that could have been traded… as in Bullish PP bullish confirmation, bearish bearish, bearish bullish, bullish bearish… I stick to the first two but let’s say we have a bearish reactive PP and an engulfing bullish confirmation I take that. And those have been the best trades in my career. Look at candle formations too _ very important… By the way real price is open close, that is what is essential… wicks are details.
Hope this helps.

  • #613
  • Sep 14, 2011 1:35pm Sep 14, 2011 1:35pm
buy... eur-usd --- eur-nzd---chf-jpy

sell... usd-chf
  • #614
  • Sep 14, 2011 1:49pm Sep 14, 2011 1:49pm
I'm flat, closed out AUDCAD at the D1 trendline shown previously (post 602). Closed USDCAD for little change, don't like the way it is going...
Good trading to all,
CB
  • #615
  • Sep 14, 2011 2:08pm Sep 14, 2011 2:08pm
Quoting porfirio
buy... eur-usd --- eur-nzd---chf-jpy

sell... usd-chf
Yeah looks tempting, but too late in the day for me especially that Europe is closed and some big spills coming out in a while, more like a coin flip really. But of course Merkel n Sarkozy won't let down their compatriots, so I'd expect a euro rise. I don’t like to trade politics/fundies, never did, tried it and got burned many times. The good thing about those though is they give levels and structures for the future… hope your trades pay off
  • #616
  • Sep 14, 2011 4:33pm Sep 14, 2011 4:33pm
hello chantalb

I only see the market from the technical point of view ... I ignore the fundamental aspects in d1

if we can do pips regardless the current economic climate, when the market normalizes we still do more
  • #617
  • Edited 8:51pm Sep 14, 2011 8:41pm | Edited 8:51pm
Quoting Chantalb
Very good thoughts there
If there is one thing I may suggest if you don’t mind, trendlines are much more meaningful drawn off a line chart. Check it out... on the same chart for instance you have in this post draw another off a line chart and compare them. Notice on the 4h where the candle closed... nice ha? Based on the traditional TL you have there you would have been waiting for a reaction/cross when price had in real passed (and closed beyond) the barrier 8 hours earlier...
Hope this was helpful...
CB
Ok, this took me a while to figure out what you are saying but I think I got it. If I actually have it right, it's a great eye-opener. Please tell me if this is what you meant:

Chart #1 - Same chart as this morning w/support trendline

Chart #2 - Changed chart from candlesticks to line chart, added the purple dashed trendline

Chart #3 - Changed back to candlesticks

Chart #4 - Zoomed to H4. Price closes below the line chart TL earlier than the candle chart

Bottom line: if I had wanted to play the breakout the line chart was a more reliable signal.

This brings back a deep dark memory of something I read in John Murphy's book about 20 years ago: the close is considered the most important number in the bar (of OHLC). I'm sure this is what you are referring to when you say that a trendline is more meaningful when drawn on a line chart.

I haven't looked at a line chart for ages! This is great stuff! Thanks for the thoughtful comments!
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Luck occurs when preparation meets with opportunity.
  • #618
  • Sep 14, 2011 8:50pm Sep 14, 2011 8:50pm
Quoting Chantalb
Now on your trade setup, that is not a setup I would consider. The confirmation candle is bearish and it is an inside bar. Your fib is not set PP to confirmation, but PP Low to PP high. You can do that if you want on let’s say outside bars or engulfing bars if you expect a continuation of a move before getting PP. ...

[color=black][font=Verdana]Look at daily charts and check out what are the best Price Pivots that could have been traded… as in Bullish PP bullish confirmation, bearish bearish, bearish bullish,...
Every word you say is great stuff! I get it all and I see everything you mean on that trade. I took it long this morning, moved to BE and got stopped out in a few hours. But I kept my #1 rule: don't lose money. Thanks!

Mega pips to all!
Luck occurs when preparation meets with opportunity.
  • #619
  • Sep 15, 2011 2:18am Sep 15, 2011 2:18am
Buy....eur-cad... (and exit of sell)

gbp-usd...exit near... Force loses .. Appearance of wicks
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  • #620
  • Sep 15, 2011 4:48am Sep 15, 2011 4:48am
BUY...E-J...D1-M30
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