Spider's Den | Page 141 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread
Attachments: Spider's Den
Exit Attachments

Spider's Den

  • #2,801
  • Sep 12, 2011 3:51am Sep 12, 2011 3:51am
Looks like we are going to close the non-existent gap of Friday close.
1.3650 looks like good level to go short.
SL: @ major resistance line 1.3688.
TP: 1.3500
4:1 R/R and if 1.3500 won't hold next one is 1.3414.

Nevertheless, Friday low 1.3625 might be tested & rejected for 3rd time. Then, according to price action, I will short anyway.

Let's see,

Seb
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd m15.jpg Size: 132 KB
  • #2,802
  • Sep 12, 2011 3:59am Sep 12, 2011 3:59am
Quoting Flynchenberg
Looks like we are going to close the non-existent gap of Friday close.
1.3650 looks like good level to go short.
SL: @ major resistance line 1.3688.
TP: 1.3500
4:1 R/R and if 1.3500 won't hold next one is 1.3414.

Nevertheless, Friday low 1.3625 might be tested & rejected for 3rd time. Then, according to price action, I will short anyway.

Let's see,

Seb
If u had a "gap", it has been filled. Now 3625 is still resistance, below that all is short. 3548 are stops for longs if any.
  • #2,803
  • Sep 12, 2011 4:12am Sep 12, 2011 4:12am
Quoting T@rantula
If u had a "gap", it has been filled. Now 3625 is still resistance, below that all is short. 3548 are stops for longs if any.
Hmmmm... on my chart it is filled up in half..maby 61.2%
I want Friday close to be kissed, not Friday low. Makret does't care , I guess.
Tiny blue rectangle is level I'm looking for.

Seb
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-m5.jpg Size: 106 KB
  • #2,804
  • Sep 12, 2011 4:18am Sep 12, 2011 4:18am
Quoting Flynchenberg
Hmmmm... on my chart it is filled up in half..maby 61.2%
I want Friday close to be kissed, not Friday low. Makret does't care , I guess.
Tiny blue rectangle is level I'm looking for.

Seb
Well since its Monday, we should have lower ATR then other days. 3650 is indeed good area for shorts but only valid if 3625 is broken.

Ultimately we need to see if 3670 gonna hold but only on STRONG momentum it could be reached.
  • #2,805
  • Sep 12, 2011 4:24am Sep 12, 2011 4:24am
Quoting T@rantula
Well since its Monday, we should have lower ATR then other days. 3650 is indeed good area for shorts but only valid if 3625 is broken.

Ultimately we need to see if 3670 gonna hold but only on STRONG momentum it could be reached.
LOL, we got the same levels in mind.
I doubt of any serious momentum, maby up-thrust made by MM to grab the weak SL.

For me, market is pricing in Greek default.
Just looka at this chart:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CGGB1U5:IND

5yr CDS @ 3399
EDIT: High 3,623.33
No way they will get away with this.
This is reason to short. EDIT: and ECB will deliver a 50 basis-point cut in December. Another reason.

Seb
  • #2,806
  • Sep 12, 2011 4:29am Sep 12, 2011 4:29am
Quoting Flynchenberg
LOL, we got the same levels in mind.
I doubt of any serious momentum, maby up-thrust made by MM to grab the weak SL.

For me, market is pricing in Greek default.
Just looka at this chart:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CGGB1U5:IND

5yr CDS @ 3399

No way they will get away with this.
This is reason to short. EDIT: and ECB will deliver a 50 basis-point cut in December. Another reason.

Seb

And its got tech support also, and it will continue as long as CBs, modal/hedge funds continue to play as they should.
  • #2,807
  • Sep 12, 2011 4:57am Sep 12, 2011 4:57am
This is the thing we work so hard to post chart, explain analysis and give entries...
Always be helpful.....look at the quality of all the traders on this thread..

Each has their own expertise...and then the harmony of the traders is broken with traders like this...dont want to boast..but together here we have traders that are serious day traders whose families depend upon it
and there we have people like mcpip....who comes here ranting and raving ...what for....why should I put in 8 hours of work posting charts....

I called a flipping move as well from 4200 to 3800 where have mentioned it again and again dont need to on cable called the shorts from 350 to 850

Good day

BW
Be sensitive to subtle differences between 'intuition' and 'into wishing.
  • #2,808
  • Sep 12, 2011 5:07am Sep 12, 2011 5:07am
Thanks a lot guys for all your hard work will visit from time to time..
Will send my weekly analysis to the Tarantula who will pm the analysis to the regulars of this thread.

Started this thread to teach and now this abuse...dont need this take it easy...

Wish you best of luck guys

GoodBye FF.
Be sensitive to subtle differences between 'intuition' and 'into wishing.
  • #2,809
  • Sep 12, 2011 5:15am Sep 12, 2011 5:15am
Quoting BlackWid0w
Thanks a lot guys for all your hard work will visit from time to time..
Will send my weekly analysis to the Tarantula who will pm the analysis to the regulars of this thread.

Started this thread to teach and now this abuse...dont need this take it easy...

Wish you best of luck guys

GoodBye FF.
Sad to see this happen BW, but I understand. Sometimes I have to take breaks from FF as well, but I keep coming back because there are a handful of traders here that are not only great traders, but also really good people.....people that I call friends, and would love to have a beer or two with one day. The beers is on me friend.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #2,810
  • Sep 12, 2011 5:18am Sep 12, 2011 5:18am
Quoting BlackWid0w
Thanks a lot guys for all your hard work will visit from time to time..
Will send my weekly analysis to the Tarantula who will pm the analysis to the regulars of this thread.

Started this thread to teach and now this abuse...dont need this take it easy...

Wish you best of luck guys

GoodBye FF.
Some kid is talking rubbish, just ignore, don't like to see good traders go, like you.
  • #2,811
  • Sep 12, 2011 5:33am Sep 12, 2011 5:33am
Hi All,
Here is what I have been looking at. We have a downtrend channel that has been broken over the WE. I managed to post a chart today, it's easier to spot.

Today (so far) could be a low test but it needs to stay above 1.3625 to favour a retrace and break 1.367 area. We may then see 1.384 area first (beyond that would be speculation so would have to see when / if it hppens).

The area I'm eyeballing atm is 1.34 - 1.342 for a decent bounce (50% retracement usually a good No. for this pair).

Right now I'm wondering why we are hovering where we are. It should have been free falling... Are there some big news expected today?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD - Rolling Spot.jpg Size: 244 KB
  • #2,812
  • Sep 12, 2011 5:37am Sep 12, 2011 5:37am
HEY BW & T.,
I missed the last posts, just been reading through them now. Thanks for stepping in. don't let this thread turning into another EUR/USD.

So far it's been great posting and sharing views.
All the best
B.

Quoting BlackWid0w
Thanks a lot guys for all your hard work will visit from time to time..
Will send my weekly analysis to the Tarantula who will pm the analysis to the regulars of this thread.

Started this thread to teach and now this abuse...dont need this take it easy...

Wish you best of luck guys

GoodBye FF.
  • #2,813
  • Sep 12, 2011 5:47am Sep 12, 2011 5:47am
Lets see the move and next 30m.

From this point I see...SL is 3645. If 3645 aint broken hello to 3525.

Attachment

EDIT: 3630 might be 1st stop loss 3645 dead stop.
  • #2,814
  • Sep 12, 2011 6:11am Sep 12, 2011 6:11am
Quoting T@rantula
Lets see the move and next 30m.

From this point I see...SL is 3645. If 3645 aint broken hello to 3525.

Attachment

EDIT: 3630 might be 1st stop loss 3645 dead stop.
Final calculation shows 3670 final stop for shorts.

Basically, i will make orders as close as to 3650 as it can be, having 3670 as stop loss.
  • #2,815
  • Sep 12, 2011 6:16am Sep 12, 2011 6:16am
USDX in a nice Bullflag on M5
If we break 77.5, we'll see a retest of 77.9 (next Resistance), so 1.35 will be most likely on the cards again...

Quoting T@rantula
Final calculation shows 3670 final stop for shorts.

Basically, i will make orders as close as to 3650 as it can be, having 3670 as stop loss.
  • #2,816
  • Sep 12, 2011 6:17am Sep 12, 2011 6:17am
Quoting BrunargarFx
USDX in a nice Bullflag on M5
If we break 77.5, we'll see a retest of 77.9 (next Resistance), so 1.35 will be most likely on the cards again...
yes 3520 is the target.
  • #2,817
  • Edited 6:45am Sep 12, 2011 6:34am | Edited 6:45am
Guys,
We have two levels to finish the typical and simple correction of wave 4 that we are on now. It might get complex as the previous correction of the same degree wac simple ABC.

Anyway, breach of 1.3648 level will open next wave 4 correction target to 1.3724-1.3731. This would be typical 38% correction of wave 3. Might extend to 50% @ 1.3804. But as we can see, downtrend is strong and we might stay at this 23% correction area between 1.3616 - 1.3648.

Break of 1.3618 would be start of wave 5 down.EDIT: Projected end of wave 5 is 1.3400-1.3420
Break of 1.3648 would be extension of correction to levels mentioned above.

Hope it helps,

Green pips,
Seb
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-h1 ew.jpg Size: 99 KB
  • #2,818
  • Sep 12, 2011 7:10am Sep 12, 2011 7:10am
Quoting Flynchenberg
Guys,
We have two levels to finish the typical and simple correction of wave 4 that we are on now. It might get complex as the previous correction of the same degree wac simple ABC.

Anyway, breach of 1.3648 level will open next wave 4 correction target to 1.3724-1.3731. This would be typical 38% correction of wave 3. Might extend to 50% @ 1.3804. But as we can see, downtrend is strong and we might stay at this 23% correction area between 1.3616 - 1.3648.

Break of 1.3618 would be start of wave 5 down.EDIT: Projected end of wave 5 is 1.3400-1.3420
Break...

Yes lets see if the short can be invalidate. Above 3670 yes.

Having had some shorts at 3631, again only 6 pips snagged ( 3625 closed) as we can see the invalidation of 3670.

Staying sidelined atm and looking for another short setup.
  • #2,819
  • Sep 12, 2011 8:02am Sep 12, 2011 8:02am
I'm just looking at the USDX right now - 1.367 is too messy for a trade (38.2% fibo retracement from Friday's move).
USDX still in the bullflag, on the LTL side. If it breaks on the Low side, EURO goes up. However if it breaks 77.4 now, we will have a decent move down.
  • #2,820
  • Sep 12, 2011 8:48am Sep 12, 2011 8:48am
look at the white LTL on daily in the chart below... if it closes at above 1.3650... its trying to stay within its range...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu daily.png Size: 83 KB
5 traders viewing now