High velocity trading

gbp usd high 1.6108 low 1.5922

EUR USD high low 1.40931.3785

http://img17.imageshack.us/img17/4035/audplan09.png

Pretty good bump and run setup on AUD USD, I've loaded up long now, however do recommend to wait for the line to break. Target is there on the chart.

took a loss here with - 43, looks like USDX is gonna go higher though.

Here's a quick look @ EU D1. Current downmove is not complete. We are below MP and QP, the question now is whether we will reach 3500 and then retrace or will EU drop further down to 3000 level and then do a retrace. Both scenarios are a real option, however I favor the 3500 retrace, since we are already out of monthly range on EU.

Here's the chart.

http://img853.imageshack.us/img853/152/eud112.png

Here are the EU quarterly levels FYI. We are below QP and QS1, so we will very likely meet S2 and S2 price action will provide a hint about the retrace.


1.5940R3
1.5440R2
1.4970R1
1.4470quarter pivot
1.4000S1
1.3500S2
1.3030S3

Checking out GU D1 chart, the key deal now is whether 5800-5850 can provide support, if this area fails and PA slides through, I'm almost 99% confident that we will see 5350 near term and then a retrace can be expected for sure.

It does look more realistic that 5800-5850 will provide some sort of support and PA will do a retrace, however upon second test into 5800-5850 it's a real option that this area will fail and prive will fade into 5350 regardless.

http://img694.imageshack.us/img694/4158/gud1chart.png

Here are the quarterly GU levels. We are below QP, however PA didn't test S1 yet @ 5700 . What that means is that very likely we will test 5700 anyway, and what that means in turn is that 5800-5850 will fail and price likely to look for support much lower than current bid/ask price we see today.


1.7374R3
1.7059R2
1.6539R1
1.6224quarter pivot
1.5704S1
1.5389S2
1.4869S3

Here's then the AUD H4 chart finally. We are below MP, what that means is that I tend to look for shorts now. Now we either break 3020-3080 area and then PA will go further down towards 1010 or 3020-3080 provides resistance (sorry, support actually!) and then what I do is seek a retest of MP @ 5060.

Which scenario then got a better likelihood? Hard to say really, so what I do is wait for 3020-3080 zone to be triggered and then Add/Subtract 40 pips to go long or short, meaning that I got short @ 2080 or long @ 4020 TP is 5040 or 1020.

Both scenarios are good in my book.

http://img69.imageshack.us/img69/2808/audh410.png

Also wanted to say that this EU downmove looks an awful lot familiar to the early May 2011 EU slide of 1000 points, current move started @ approx 4500, so 3500 is a very realistic target on the downside now.

I will also calculate High/Low levels on sunday, need to update the neural network design. It did kinda OK this week, picking a few right tops/botts, but most times failed, reason being is that NN is much better @ predicting valid highs/lows in a milder-paced markets, when this wild kinda stuff starts to kick in, and EU drops 600-800 points per week non stop with no retraces, NN will be off the tracks.

GU NN Weekly High/Low forecast for the new week:

HIGH 1.6007LOW 1.5494

GU NN High Low Monday 12 09 2011

HIGH 1.5990 LOW 1.5812

EU NN High Low Monday 12 09 2011

HIGH 1.3807 LOW 1.3521

So here's D1 EU chart with NN high/low levels for Monday. The levels do make good sense, so looking to sell high and buy low monday.

http://img18.imageshack.us/img18/2615/eud112092011.png

Combine that with the chart I posted on Saturday and the fact that 3500 is quarterly S2, that's good enough reason to go long @ that level.

http://img192.imageshack.us/img192/7981/eu3500.png

Finally let's check out the USDX D1 chart. Dollar managed a very strong close above WP and MP and broke important line @ 7675. It's running through every monthly resistance, and next stop is 7900, which is also Monthly R4 level. This kinda reinforces a much lower scenario on EURO, meaning that 3500 might not be the ultimate low now, but rather 3000.

Anyway, need to follow this closely.

http://img823.imageshack.us/img823/8...d112092011.png

GBP CAD M30 a good trade setup to monitor, I'd short sell once the yellow area is cleared and TP will be initially set @ 5660-5670 area.

http://img41.imageshack.us/img41/4025/gbpcadm3012.png

buying EU right about now for 3800 seems like a pretty damn good idea, considering USDX H4 pin bar formation @ the channel upper band.

preparing to go long on euro soon, after USDX does a clean break of 77 level.

I want to see at least an M30 bullish engulfer on EU now.