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vsa with Malcolm

  • #21,481
  • Sep 2, 2011 8:23am Sep 2, 2011 8:23am
Quoting tgwhbb
hey pres, good to see you back!

Attached is ES today, after NFP. There is stopping volume at expected support on the 15M. Although the bar closes up form its open, it closes down on the low relative to the previous bar given the big gap above. he next bar is also down. Would you consider this stopping volume that is not confirmed?
Volume on initial NFP bars can not be trusted IMHO as there is always going to be a surge in SM / overall activity. We need to wait to see their intentions. ES has been trending down this week so will they keep it going or use NFP to change the trend.

If we close below 1180-1175 today then I see a possible move down into the 1135-1130 zone next week. I see ES and Oil both as weak ATM and have been watching what appears to be dist on both items on the 1hr charts.

Remember when we are at an area of support where stopping volume may be expected but can also be absorption trying to break through. Next bars are key.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #21,482
  • Edited 9:12pm Sep 2, 2011 7:44pm | Edited 9:12pm
So we are finally done with august!!

Easy ND on daily, and volume was nothing more than average on 4h for NFP. I personally dont see any real strength just yet.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1d.png Size: 90 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 4h.png Size: 98 KB
  • #21,483
  • Sep 3, 2011 2:47pm Sep 3, 2011 2:47pm
Using volume to identify supply and demand, I have been using this technique from some time. Below are the steps.

1) I only use H1 time frame
2) I only trade London, New york sessions first 2-3 hours.
3) Look for wide bars with "unusually" high volume that fail to follow up for example look for a wide up bar with high volume with the subsequent bar not being able to make a higher High. Vice versa for down bars.
4) Trade in the opposite direction if Low (or High of this bar) is taken.
5) You can use low or high of bar as Stop loss and same for the T/P

Attached picture shows an example trade I took.

EUR CAD LONG Trade
Attached Image
  • #21,484
  • Edited 7:03am Sep 4, 2011 6:53am | Edited 7:03am
I see strength on G/U. Also E/U is falling on no selling pressure. We will probably be in a range for some time next week between the dotted lines.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: untitled1.jpg Size: 114 KB
  • #21,485
  • Sep 4, 2011 7:56am Sep 4, 2011 7:56am
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      xxxx|   0     0   |      xxxxx          xxxxxxx
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       xxxxxx | o_o |  xxxxx                   ||xxxxx
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           xxxx| : |xxxx                 /          _
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  • #21,486
  • Sep 4, 2011 10:46am Sep 4, 2011 10:46am
AUD CAD looking good on asia open. Stop at 1.05 for a t/p at around 1.04
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDCAD.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #21,487
  • Sep 6, 2011 5:36pm Sep 6, 2011 5:36pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur usd daily.gif Size: 166 KB


Interesting candle after all those buy calls from Gods Bank (before SNB intervention).
  • #21,488
  • Sep 7, 2011 10:51am Sep 7, 2011 10:51am
Hi !

Would you guys consider the bar marked as a no demand bar/test ? it hasn't got volume lower than the two previous one.
It seems like a UT without volume, would be enough for you to short it ?

Thx
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gum5.jpg Size: 114 KB
Trade Smart
  • #21,489
  • Sep 7, 2011 11:08am Sep 7, 2011 11:08am
GBPJPY 4H

Price is looking like it is building on ma30 and ma50, receiving support on lower primary trend line, and demand is swamping over supply. Volume activity increasing on this stopping move at these lower levels (tighter spread). I can only think of one thing. I still want to see a second test below 123.xx handle. Since the markets have been moving much more volatile, increasing my sl's are musts.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GJ 4H.png Size: 43 KB
  • #21,490
  • Sep 7, 2011 11:41am Sep 7, 2011 11:41am
Quoting Osman
Hi !

Would you guys consider the bar marked as a no demand bar/test ? it hasn't got volume lower than the two previous one.
It seems like a UT without volume, would be enough for you to short it ?

Thx
My 2 cents... yes you could safely short that bar. Target would have been yesterday's low watching for reaction in that area.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gum5.jpg Size: 129 KB
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #21,491
  • Sep 7, 2011 11:59am Sep 7, 2011 11:59am
Quoting pres78
My 2 cents... yes you could safely short that bar. Target would have been yesterday's low watching for reaction in that area.
Thx pres78 !

Im bit confused, FXCM and IBFX have different volumes.. which one to choose ?

On ibfx we have up bar closing on the highs with high volume, next candle is a UT closing on the lows with high volume but less than the previous one, on the next we have a candle with a close in the middle and then the trigger candle with the lowest volume of all 4 bars.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu5mibfx.jpg Size: 122 KB
Trade Smart
  • #21,492
  • Sep 7, 2011 1:48pm Sep 7, 2011 1:48pm
Another trade I didn't took due to the confusion of volume on different brokers...

FXCM - no NS, tiny volume on the push through.. zero confidence on the break

IBFX - we had a no demand bar that would been my entry | Push through was in bigger volume compared to FXCM but it was the lower volume of the last 4 bars which gave me no confidence on the break.

Im the only one facing this volume problems ?
Would you choose only broker and take the trades based on one of them ?

Thanks !
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu5mibvol.jpg Size: 127 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gu5mfxcm.jpg Size: 109 KB
Trade Smart
  • #21,493
  • Sep 7, 2011 2:58pm Sep 7, 2011 2:58pm
Quoting Osman
Another trade I didn't took due to the confusion of volume on different brokers...

FXCM - no NS, tiny volume on the push through.. zero confidence on the break

IBFX - we had a no demand bar that would been my entry | Push through was in bigger volume compared to FXCM but it was the lower volume of the last 4 bars which gave me no confidence on the break.

Im the only one facing this volume problems ?
Would you choose only broker and take the trades based on one of them ?

Thanks !
Your FXCM feed is playing up. You are missing some price action and a whole bunch of volume data in the area of your initial short.

Don't forget the definition of a 'no demand'. Find it, then go back and look at your NDs.
  • #21,494
  • Sep 7, 2011 8:07pm Sep 7, 2011 8:07pm
Quoting Osman
Another trade I didn't took due to the confusion of volume on different brokers...

FXCM - no NS, tiny volume on the push through.. zero confidence on the break

IBFX - we had a no demand bar that would been my entry | Push through was in bigger volume compared to FXCM but it was the lower volume of the last 4 bars which gave me no confidence on the break.

Im the only one facing this volume problems ?
Would you choose only broker and take the trades based on one of them ?

Thanks !
Data can be a real problem with this trading method. You need a good clean accurate feed. I recommend esignal or sierra.
  • #21,495
  • Sep 8, 2011 9:24am Sep 8, 2011 9:24am
Heres a setup on futures. Can trade spot as well.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gutradesetup.jpg Size: 134 KB
  • #21,496
  • Sep 8, 2011 9:55am Sep 8, 2011 9:55am
Quoting Sonofsin5
Heres a setup on futures. Can trade spot as well.
Now +40 since trade call, looking good. VSA still works I guess.
  • #21,497
  • Sep 8, 2011 10:12am Sep 8, 2011 10:12am
S@p chart, again futures but showing a no brainer.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ss@p obama.jpg Size: 149 KB
  • #21,498
  • Sep 8, 2011 1:02pm Sep 8, 2011 1:02pm
Quoting Sonofsin5
S@p chart, again futures but showing a no brainer.
Good setup.
  • #21,499
  • Sep 8, 2011 1:04pm Sep 8, 2011 1:04pm
Quoting rbumbalough
Good setup.
I'll repost a chart of the s@p when the session is over. At first glance it looks like they are trying to sucker in shorts here. I expect higher prices tonight when obama speaks.
  • #21,500
  • Sep 8, 2011 1:05pm Sep 8, 2011 1:05pm
Here's a CLZ1 30M chart showing weakness near current top.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CLZ1-30M-110908.GIF Size: 17 KB
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