if 99% fail why not reverse what we trade | Page 2 | Forex Factory

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if 99% fail why not reverse what we trade

  • #21
  • Sep 5, 2011 9:23am Sep 5, 2011 9:23am
Quoting Brunite
You have nailed it with your idea!

After a chance viewing of this episode; I decided to apply the concept to trading. It worked. I am now a millionaire. I own a mansion.....and a yacht!

Regards,
Elmer F




http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RerJWv5vwxc
great vid B v funny,see it worked out for him!!
  • #22
  • Sep 5, 2011 11:17am Sep 5, 2011 11:17am
Quoting Tedge UK
i KNOW THIS SOUNDS CRAZY STUPID BUT WHY DO SO MANY OF US FAIL IN TRADING WHEN ALL WE HAVE TO DO IS DO THE OPPOSITE TO WHAT WE ARE DOING.The only thing that is stopping us from being profitable is greed and fear,crack this and no matter what system, we should be all be in profit CONSISTENTLY?

So whats your thoughts guys,I think reverse psychology plays a BIG part in trading
Elsewhere I made a post that the best way to trade is setup a bucketshop and mark-to-market the daily losses/profits. Since only 25% of Oanda traders are in profit after 1st quarter and then 25% of those, after one year less than 1% are in profit. But of course you can first vet the trader and make certain he isn't the next George Sorro's. The trader trades normally with Oanda spreads on a demo account. At the end of the day if made a net loss he give s the me the money via paypal. If he made a profit I will pay him via paypal.

This reduces the risk of non-payment. What I can't understand is why very few grasp what I just posted?

This is why Oanda and all the other forex brokers views us traders as a bunch of fools, sadly they are correct.
  • #23
  • Sep 5, 2011 12:27pm Sep 5, 2011 12:27pm
Quoting StephanusR
Since only 25% of Oanda traders are in profit after 1st quarter and then 25% of those, after one year less than 1% are in profit.

cite?
  • #24
  • Sep 5, 2011 12:52pm Sep 5, 2011 12:52pm
Quoting Tedge UK
i KNOW THIS SOUNDS CRAZY STUPID BUT WHY DO SO MANY OF US FAIL IN TRADING WHEN ALL WE HAVE TO DO IS DO THE OPPOSITE TO WHAT WE ARE DOING.
Stupid is who stupid does. So the only way to be stupid would be trying such a system.
  • #25
  • Sep 5, 2011 2:29pm Sep 5, 2011 2:29pm
Quoting Marv
Just like in a casino, people fail due to the house edge embedded in the game. Playing the opposite of what you're playing won't change a thing as you'll still lose to the house. You need to have a positive edge that both negates and exceeds the house edge in order to win consistently.

The only instance where such reversal would work is if you're consistently losing more than you're statistically supposed to lose, but the irony is that losing more than you're statistically supposed to is just as hard to achieve as being a consistent winner. Thus, again, this whole proposition is useless.
Very good explanation, IMO.
  • #26
  • Sep 5, 2011 2:48pm Sep 5, 2011 2:48pm
Quoting BruceBanner
Stupid is who stupid does. So the only way to be stupid would be trying such a system.
  • #27
  • Sep 7, 2011 10:02am Sep 7, 2011 10:02am
Quoting Tedge UK
i KNOW THIS SOUNDS CRAZY STUPID BUT WHY DO SO MANY OF US FAIL IN TRADING WHEN ALL WE HAVE TO DO IS DO THE OPPOSITE TO WHAT WE ARE DOING.The only thing that is stopping us from being profitable is greed and fear,crack this and no matter what system, we should be all be in profit CONSISTENTLY?

So whats your thoughts guys,I think reverse psychology plays a BIG part in trading
I think you're 100% correct, that is if you can figure out exactly why your losing everytime then you can do the opposite and win. But the question remains, what is it your doing wrong. that's just as hard to figure out as trying to figure out the right way. In forex there's just too many variables. Opposite assumes everything is black and white. Too many colors in forex. what's the opposite of red?? what's the opposite of yellow?? It's all about developing your own strategy, or a plan, that works for you. And stick to it.
Live to Trade FX - Trade FX to Live
  • #28
  • Sep 7, 2011 10:30am Sep 7, 2011 10:30am
Quoting the redlion
if you run forward at the enemy and cuts you down with machine gun fire, you simply run backwards at the enemy and you will win?

Great Quote! One of the best I've read
  • #29
  • Sep 7, 2011 10:38am Sep 7, 2011 10:38am
Quoting Marv
Statistically speaking, this pretty much is useless to consider as a solution (not to mention that I don't know where you got this 99% rate from).

Just like in a casino, people fail due to the house edge embedded in the game. Playing the opposite of what you're playing won't change a thing as you'll still lose to the house. You need to have a positive edge that both negates and exceeds the house edge in order to win consistently.

The only instance where such reversal would work is if you're consistently losing more than you're statistically...
Success rates will be evenly distributed along a bell curve with the average trader losing money over time. Just as said above like gambling, the odds of trading are like the odds of a casino where the spreads and leverage take the odds out of the individual trader's favor and into a losing proposition. Most people will lose average amounts and the outliers will either win huge or lose huge. Of course everyone thinks they are going to be the outlier but the reality is they are most likely to be the average, losing trader.

But this is life. Think of all the people that go to Hollywood to be a star and end up at the bottom of the porn industry after all the years. Think of all the young athletes with delusions of grandeur that end up in the old man softball league, still convinced they are a hero. And look at all the people that start a small business, knowing that 90% will fail.

It is human nature to try to be the outlier. It isn't a bad thing. I think it is what makes us great by striving to be something that is very unlikely. It's only money and along the way you will learn a great deal about yourself that hopefully improves you life in other ways.
  • #30
  • Sep 7, 2011 10:44am Sep 7, 2011 10:44am
The question is quite a good one, as a successful full time trader of 4 years I can tell you some of the answers, though you probably wont believe me.

Most of the stuff you have heard about trading forex has originated with Brokers. All of the cliches for example:-

Run your profits and cut you losses, this is the wrong way around, brokers love you to set silly little stop losses they see it as you setting a place where you are guaranteed to be a loser. You should set big stop losses and take small profits.

"You should never trade with a RR ratio of less that 1:1", Rubbish you are far more likely to win with a stop of 100 pips and a TP of 20. I can show you chart after chart of me doing just that. (ever thought of splitting your entry into 3 parts and entering over 100 pips if price goes against you)

You should always use low leverage (or no leverage) most traders realise this but still trade too much as newbies. If you have 10K in your account you should not trade more that 1 per pip, or 2 per pip if you are experienced. (1 per pip represents no leverage and at such a low level allows you to take multiple entries as explained above)

"You should always wait for a confirmation candle before entering", ha ha who do you think makes the confirmation candle.

As a trader you must understand "mean reversion", you also have to understand how to assess the odds of success in relation to where price is in the market. (i.e after a strong rally the odds of a successful short trade increase, and if you are entering with multiple positions the odds go sky high)

Technical trading from a chart is largely an illusion, charts tell you very little about where price will go next, you have to acknowledge and accept that gambling is a very big part of trading.

There is a lot more but that's a little to be going on with.

A quick excercise for those who trade with a tight S/L.

Look back over a good number of trades and see what would have happened with the same TP but a SL of 200 pips.
  • #31
  • Sep 7, 2011 11:35am Sep 7, 2011 11:35am
Reversing trades doesn't work because there are an entry and exit component. Reversing traders can work because most traders fail...it's the theory of the bucketshop.
  • #32
  • Sep 7, 2011 12:08pm Sep 7, 2011 12:08pm
Quoting Sirano
The question is quite a good one, as a successful full time trader of 4 years I can tell you some of the answers, though you probably wont believe me.

Most of the stuff you have heard about trading forex has originated with Brokers. All of the cliches for example:-

Run your profits and cut you losses, this is the wrong way around, brokers love you to set silly little stop losses they see it as you setting a place where you are guaranteed to be a loser. You should set big stop losses and take small profits.

"You should never trade with...
Thanks for your insite Sirano,I was hoping someone might come up with a logical idea
  • #33
  • Sep 9, 2011 7:09am Sep 9, 2011 7:09am
There is another point made earlier in this thread, about how pro's all tell you they blew several accounts before becoming profitable....hmmm. Well I know quite a few pro's and not one of them has ever mentioned blowing an account to me, I have certainly never blown an account.

So, where do you think this belief may have come from? Who would benefit from making you believe that in order to be successful you first have to lose several accounts.

No prizes will be given for the correct answer. :-)
  • #34
  • Sep 9, 2011 7:31am Sep 9, 2011 7:31am
Quoting traderjai_inhi
I think that horse is dead, you should stop beating it.

BIG like
  • #35
  • Sep 9, 2011 10:02pm Sep 9, 2011 10:02pm
Quoting Sirano
"You should never trade with a RR ratio of less that 1:1", Rubbish you are far more likely to win with a stop of 100 pips and a TP of 20. I can show you chart after chart of me doing just that. (ever thought of splitting your entry into 3 parts and entering over 100 pips if price goes against you)
I agree with this but it doesn't always work properly. the idea of RR ratio is that becuase losses is inevitable in forex ( there is no way of having 100% accurate positions) then we should minimise our losses : example 6 trade with 20 tp and 100 sl for each - if the first five trade were successful but the last one was unsuccessful then it will take out your whole days gains and you will nd up with zero sum
  • #36
  • Sep 9, 2011 10:25pm Sep 9, 2011 10:25pm
.... But if you do the opposite of what you should do, then when it starts working, what do you do then ?? The opposite of that ??

It only seems like doing the opposite would work because the trades are worse than random. But in the end, you would have to learn to trade with a positive expectancy. Because doing the opposite of the opposite of the opposite is going to also fail in the end.

....And with the Oanda stats, that 25% are winners, I don't think that at the end of the next month only 25% of those traders will be winners. I think that the same 25% are winning each month, give or take a few.

But the market aint no giveaway program. It will always cream the masses.
  • #37
  • Sep 13, 2011 8:17am Sep 13, 2011 8:17am
lol, Price well said. its like 12% of road accidents are caused through drink driving so 88% isn't ,so do we all drink before driving ???happy trading,happy days
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #38
  • Sep 15, 2011 11:28am Sep 15, 2011 11:28am
Then go specialize as a contrarian. Email George Soros.
  • #39
  • Sep 15, 2011 3:07pm Sep 15, 2011 3:07pm
Quoting genyue
Then go specialize as a contrarian. Email George Soros.
eh?
  • #40
  • Sep 15, 2011 3:14pm Sep 15, 2011 3:14pm
a what ????
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
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