if 99% fail why not reverse what we trade | Forex Factory

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if 99% fail why not reverse what we trade

  • #1
  • First Post: Sep 3, 2011 4:07pm Sep 3, 2011 4:07pm
i KNOW THIS SOUNDS CRAZY STUPID BUT WHY DO SO MANY OF US FAIL IN TRADING WHEN ALL WE HAVE TO DO IS DO THE OPPOSITE TO WHAT WE ARE DOING.The only thing that is stopping us from being profitable is greed and fear,crack this and no matter what system, we should be all be in profit CONSISTENTLY?

So whats your thoughts guys,I think reverse psychology plays a BIG part in trading
  • #2
  • Sep 3, 2011 4:32pm Sep 3, 2011 4:32pm
I think that horse is dead, you should stop beating it.
  • #3
  • Sep 3, 2011 4:47pm Sep 3, 2011 4:47pm
if you run forward at the enemy and cuts you down with machine gun fire, you simply run backwards at the enemy and you will win?
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #4
  • Sep 3, 2011 4:49pm Sep 3, 2011 4:49pm
I don't even know what I'm doing NOW, why would I think I could do the opposite?
  • #5
  • Sep 3, 2011 5:17pm Sep 3, 2011 5:17pm
Quoting Tedge UK
i KNOW THIS SOUNDS CRAZY STUPID BUT WHY DO SO MANY OF US FAIL IN TRADING WHEN ALL WE HAVE TO DO IS DO THE OPPOSITE TO WHAT WE ARE DOING.The only thing that is stopping us from being profitable is greed and fear,crack this and no matter what system, we should be all be in profit CONSISTENTLY?

So whats your thoughts guys,I think reverse psychology plays a BIG part in trading
I think that's like saying reverse what you do know and then hope what you don't know is correct.
Pity the fool who thinks they'll make it overnight...
  • #6
  • Sep 3, 2011 5:18pm Sep 3, 2011 5:18pm
Quoting ha-pattern
I don't even know what I'm doing NOW, why would I think I could do the opposite?
Bingo!
Pity the fool who thinks they'll make it overnight...
  • #7
  • Edited 9:42pm Sep 3, 2011 9:07pm | Edited 9:42pm
Statistically speaking, this pretty much is useless to consider as a solution (not to mention that I don't know where you got this 99% rate from).

Just like in a casino, people fail due to the house edge embedded in the game. Playing the opposite of what you're playing won't change a thing as you'll still lose to the house. You need to have a positive edge that both negates and exceeds the house edge in order to win consistently.

The only instance where such reversal would work is if you're consistently losing more than you're statistically supposed to lose, but the irony is that losing more than you're statistically supposed to is just as hard to achieve as being a consistent winner. Thus, again, this whole proposition is useless.
  • #8
  • Sep 3, 2011 10:08pm Sep 3, 2011 10:08pm
Quoting the redlion
if you run forward at the enemy and cuts you down with machine gun fire, you simply run backwards at the enemy and you will win?
//---
//---

if you ran fast enough, yes......

//---
//---

hey tedge.... fear and greed are not what's keeping most people from being profitable.....

take a look over at dailyfx's site..... there is quite a lot of work involving
trader sentiment......

others , such as oanda, have similar......

the common theme is to occasionally trade against them......h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #9
  • Sep 4, 2011 1:06am Sep 4, 2011 1:06am
Quoting Marv
Statistically speaking, this pretty much is useless to consider as a solution (not to mention that I don't know where you got this 99% rate from).

Just like in a casino, people fail due to the house edge embedded in the game. Playing the opposite of what you're playing won't change a thing as you'll still lose to the house. You need to have a positive edge that both negates and exceeds the house edge in order to win consistently.

The only instance where such reversal would work is if you're consistently losing more than you're statistically...
the answer is...

we take profits only partially

but losses are ours in full
  • #10
  • Sep 4, 2011 1:32am Sep 4, 2011 1:32am
Your broker does the opposite of you every time.
  • #11
  • Sep 4, 2011 3:17am Sep 4, 2011 3:17am
Quoting Marv
Statistically speaking, this pretty much is useless to consider as a solution (not to mention that I don't know where you got this 99% rate from).

Just like in a casino, people fail due to the house edge embedded in the game. Playing the opposite of what you're playing won't change a thing as you'll still lose to the house. You need to have a positive edge that both negates and exceeds the house edge in order to win consistently.

The only instance where such reversal would work is if you're consistently losing more than you're statistically...
Yes you are correct Marv about the 99% i pulled it out of the air,its probably more like 99.9%
  • #12
  • Sep 4, 2011 3:28am Sep 4, 2011 3:28am
Quoting Tedge UK
Yes you are correct Marv about the 99% i pulled it out of the air,its probably more like 99.9%
99.618%! don't forget to randomly add some fibonacci in there.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #13
  • Sep 4, 2011 3:44am Sep 4, 2011 3:44am
Tedge uk, you are partially right the 95% who fail are mere statistics who just trade like all the other failures. you can win many times but lose once and your dead. Trade like you say ie do the opposite, has some merit but alas you still get wiped out eventually. funny thing is the way i trade is something on the lines of what you suggest and i live on what i make for the last 6 or 7 years.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #14
  • Sep 4, 2011 7:29am Sep 4, 2011 7:29am
The OP has an idea of what it takes to become profitable but is he ready for the truth?

What if you are told that you need to throw out nearly all you have been taught as safe trading practices in order to become profitable, will you even listen?

Personally, I have found that stop loss, risk reward, trend trading, trailing stop, conventional money management, letting profit run while cutting losses short, etc, are all reasonable. But they produce losing results.

Of course 95% of reasonableness here will not agree with me. But will you even listen, talk less of checking it out?

King.
  • #15
  • Sep 4, 2011 11:08am Sep 4, 2011 11:08am
Quoting nubcake
99.618%! don't forget to randomly add some fibonacci in there.
lol!
  • #16
  • Sep 4, 2011 11:10am Sep 4, 2011 11:10am
Quoting kingsurfer
The OP has an idea of what it takes to become profitable but is he ready for the truth?

What if you are told that you need to throw out nearly all you have been taught as safe trading practices in order to become profitable, will you even listen?

Personally, I have found that stop loss, risk reward, trend trading, trailing stop, conventional money management, letting profit run while cutting losses short, etc, are all reasonable. But they produce losing results.

Of course 95% of reasonableness here will not agree with me. But will you...
i'm ready to listen?
  • #17
  • Sep 4, 2011 11:30pm Sep 4, 2011 11:30pm
imo Once you ARE able to do the exact opposite of what you were doing you will be profitable because you will not be doing the same stupid shit you were doing in the first place. The answer is that it takes time and training to do that.
Do your time and enjoy the ride...
  • #18
  • Sep 5, 2011 6:24am Sep 5, 2011 6:24am
Quoting Tedge UK
i KNOW THIS SOUNDS CRAZY STUPID BUT WHY DO SO MANY OF US FAIL IN TRADING WHEN ALL WE HAVE TO DO IS DO THE OPPOSITE TO WHAT WE ARE DOING.The only thing that is stopping us from being profitable is greed and fear,crack this and no matter what system, we should be all be in profit CONSISTENTLY?

So whats your thoughts guys,I think reverse psychology plays a BIG part in trading
One things for sure the masses lose money in trading. And the few that do become successful will tell you they've blown several acounts along the way. So what are those successful traders doing? Well the opposite to what the masses are doing! But throw in years of screen time and studying what the successful are doing. There are some trading stats on this forum that work undoubtedly but it's down to the trader then to work the strategy. Patience and self disciplne are key to becoming successful!
  • #19
  • Sep 5, 2011 8:00am Sep 5, 2011 8:00am
Quoting richyrich
One things for sure the masses lose money in trading. And the few that do become successful will tell you they've blown several acounts along the way. So what are those successful traders doing? Well the opposite to what the masses are doing! But throw in years of screen time and studying what the successful are doing. There are some trading stats on this forum that work undoubtedly but it's down to the trader then to work the strategy. Patience and self disciplne are key to becoming successful!
sounds like you know your stuff Richy
  • #20
  • Sep 5, 2011 9:09am Sep 5, 2011 9:09am
You have nailed it with your idea!

After a chance viewing of this episode; I decided to apply the concept to trading. It worked. I am now a millionaire. I own a mansion.....and a yacht!

Regards,
Elmer F




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