48th Week of 2009
This pair has been on a major downtrend since the crisis began in March 2009 & moved further down with the announcement of the European economic stimulus plan. When G20 announced early this month the continuation of stimulus package & that ECB was still negative about the state of the economy, it hit its bottom.
However, it has since rebounded & moved up until it reached the 23.6% Fibo retracements by the end of last week. On a weekly scale, both MACD & RSI are also heading up, signalling further upward strength.
Based on my observations of late, this pair is behaving in opposite direction to NZD/USD, that whenever either one advances, the other will decline, vice versa.
I expect it to touch the 38.2% Fibo for the upcoming week & possibly beyond with the revival of European confidence since the collapse of Lehman Brothers (refer http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=am6RvI5pnoLE). Other pairs that are following the same path are EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD & AUD/NZD respectively. Nevertheless, since gold is still continuing its rally, some pullbacks in this pair are expected as NZ Dollar is a commodity currency.
Major News for Next Week
Monday - NZ Building Consents m/m, EU CPI Flash Estimate y/y, EU Preliminary CPI m/m (Italian)
Tuesday - EU Retail Sales m/m (Germany), EU Unemployment Change (Germany), EU Final Manufacturing PMI, EU Unemployment Rate
Wednesday - EU PPI m/m
Thursday - EU Final Services PMI, EU Retail Sales m/m, EU Revised GDP q/q, EU Minimum Bid Rate, ECB Press Conference, Buba President Axel Weber Speaks
Disclaimer : While readers receive the benefit of opinions, none of the information contained therein constitutes a recommendation that any transactions or trading strategies are suitable for any specific persons. To the extent any of the information contained therein may be deemed to be trading advice, such information is impersonal & not tailored to the trading needs of any specific persons. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance.
This pair has been on a major downtrend since the crisis began in March 2009 & moved further down with the announcement of the European economic stimulus plan. When G20 announced early this month the continuation of stimulus package & that ECB was still negative about the state of the economy, it hit its bottom.
However, it has since rebounded & moved up until it reached the 23.6% Fibo retracements by the end of last week. On a weekly scale, both MACD & RSI are also heading up, signalling further upward strength.
Based on my observations of late, this pair is behaving in opposite direction to NZD/USD, that whenever either one advances, the other will decline, vice versa.
I expect it to touch the 38.2% Fibo for the upcoming week & possibly beyond with the revival of European confidence since the collapse of Lehman Brothers (refer http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=am6RvI5pnoLE). Other pairs that are following the same path are EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD & AUD/NZD respectively. Nevertheless, since gold is still continuing its rally, some pullbacks in this pair are expected as NZ Dollar is a commodity currency.
Major News for Next Week
Monday - NZ Building Consents m/m, EU CPI Flash Estimate y/y, EU Preliminary CPI m/m (Italian)
Tuesday - EU Retail Sales m/m (Germany), EU Unemployment Change (Germany), EU Final Manufacturing PMI, EU Unemployment Rate
Wednesday - EU PPI m/m
Thursday - EU Final Services PMI, EU Retail Sales m/m, EU Revised GDP q/q, EU Minimum Bid Rate, ECB Press Conference, Buba President Axel Weber Speaks
Disclaimer : While readers receive the benefit of opinions, none of the information contained therein constitutes a recommendation that any transactions or trading strategies are suitable for any specific persons. To the extent any of the information contained therein may be deemed to be trading advice, such information is impersonal & not tailored to the trading needs of any specific persons. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
