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  • #121
  • Aug 25, 2011 11:32pm Aug 25, 2011 11:32pm
Quoting kk007
Possibly another -10pip loser?
Maybe it's just me but I couldn't make it work when these bars are later in the new trend. I found that usually what tricks me to be a breakout like that in your chart, very often is just an exhaustion. I think the best plays are if these bars are taken immediately after the opposite trend with support or resistance far away. Like a reversal bar. Look at this post to see what I mean.

I don't know if I am drifting away from Survivor's logic here but I think that these bars are what in candlestick theory are called engulfing bars.
  • #122
  • Aug 28, 2011 4:37am Aug 28, 2011 4:37am
Quoting KMidas
Maybe it's just me but I couldn't make it work when these bars are later in the new trend. I found that usually what tricks me to be a breakout like that in your chart, very often is just an exhaustion. I think the best plays are if these bars are taken immediately after the opposite trend with support or resistance far away. Like a reversal bar. Look at this post to see what I mean.

I don't know if I am drifting away from Survivor's logic here but I think that these...
I agree with you. Idea is to jump in when tide turns. I do take trades later in move. but then i am more careful with late entries and i get out if i see any trouble.

Here is an only example. i didnt trade it live. i wasnt in market. EU 15M
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU15M.jpg Size: 89 KB
Making money is easy- Just dont take losing trades
  • #123
  • Aug 29, 2011 5:01am Aug 29, 2011 5:01am
Survivor, belated congrats on your first thread! I've been focusing on learning lately and missed that you started this nearly a month ago. I've read all of you previous posts when you were with Dance/Choros, and you are good at keeping everything simple, AND being successful!

Thanks for sharing the fruits of your hard work! I'll be along for the ride!
Luck occurs when preparation meets with opportunity.
  • #124
  • Aug 29, 2011 10:45am Aug 29, 2011 10:45am
Following this thread closely
  • #125
  • Aug 30, 2011 12:34am Aug 30, 2011 12:34am
Quoting AlienFrog
Survivor, belated congrats on your first thread! I've been focusing on learning lately and missed that you started this nearly a month ago. I've read all of you previous posts when you were with Dance/Choros, and you are good at keeping everything simple, AND being successful!

Thanks for sharing the fruits of your hard work! I'll be along for the ride!

Thanks friend. I remeber my own struggle and hope it helps someone.
Making money is easy- Just dont take losing trades
  • #126
  • Aug 30, 2011 3:47am Aug 30, 2011 3:47am
After programming the software to analyze the excellent Dance/Choros system setups and discovering many interesting things in the process, I think that algorithmic trading is what I -personally- should focus on. And this system is something that I will be soon testing.

I feel confident that I can program everything that a succesful trader can explain with words, but it has been my experience that many times this is not enough to replicate the results of successful traders. Often, successful traders have developed a "feeling" that they may not even be aware of. So they will enter trades that maybe are not exactly following their own rules, or will avoid trades that are 100% by the rules. When attempting to explain why they took or passed a specific trade they will certainly give a good explanation of their actions, eg "there was a pinbar in 1H" or "the general sentiment today was bullish". But other times they will ignore the 1H pinbars or the day's sentiment, and this may confuse those who try to follow a system by strictly adhering to the rules. This means that even if I correctly program all the rules of a system, backtesting may show results that are not better than chance, eg a winning percentage of about 50% for a Risk/Reward ratio of 1.

So a succesful algorithm will have to go further than simply adhering to the rules of a system; the programmer will also have to decipher other rules that the market usually obeys and the succesful traders are applying, maybe even without consciously realizing themselves.

The good news is that IT IS possible to find patterns that have promising success rates (over 70-75%) in backtesting, and once you find them you don't have to worry anymore about psychology or adhering to the rules: The software will take care of all these for you. I will soon start trading live such a pattern, while I will be looking for more.

Obviously such patterns have to be at least fairly complex, because a simple pattern would be clearly visible by a lot of traders (both human and software ones) and so would soon stop working. So I have been formulating an approach for discovering price patterns: I will start with a simple idea which most probably will give no better than 50% success while at the same time monitoring other parameters of the trade. Then I will analyze the log of the taken trades, hoping that I will find a significant corelation between one or more of the parameters and the trades that have been succesful. If this happens, then a new trading algorithm will have been born.

During the next days I'll be working on finding a pattern based on this system.
  • #127
  • Aug 30, 2011 8:36am Aug 30, 2011 8:36am
Quoting micmic
After programming the software to analyze the excellent Dance/Choros system setups and discovering many interesting things in the process, I think that algorithmic trading is what I -personally- should focus on. And this system is something that I will be soon testing.

I feel confident that I can program everything that a succesful trader can explain with words, but it has been my experience that many times this is not enough to replicate the results of successful traders. Often, successful traders have developed a "feeling" that they may not...
This sounds really interesting, you have walked a long way since you first started with your indicator for Choros/Dance system, I'm sure you not only succeeded in the development but you also had some valuable learnings in the process.

Let us know how you do with this system, I think it may show a little bit more complex as it is based almost entirely on Survivors discretion on judging a momentum bar and his knowledge and feeling of the market, it will surely be another educational journey...
Flp. 4:13
  • #128
  • Aug 30, 2011 10:51pm Aug 30, 2011 10:51pm
Do you think you can code an indicator for me, i don't want to clogg this great thread up with talks of that, can you pm me or send me an email from my profile and I will send you the parameters, its a simple indicator I need created and is related to this trading method.
  • #129
  • Aug 31, 2011 3:53am Aug 31, 2011 3:53am
Quoting Anthar
I think it may show a little bit more complex as it is based almost entirely on Survivors discretion on judging a momentum bar and his knowledge and feeling of the market, it will surely be another educational journey...
Exactly. Obviously Survivor has acquired the "feeling" for it. Some of the other parameters besides "impulsive" candles have already been described, eg rejection bars after such "impulsive" candles. But there could be more parameters that would determine the success ratio of this method: Trend of higher timeframes; Number of candles to the left of price (how congested the area is); Breaking of previous S/R; etc.

Quoting dappa
Do you think you can code an indicator for me, i don't want to clogg this great thread up with talks of that, can you pm me or send me an email from my profile and I will send you the parameters, its a simple indicator I need created and is related to this trading method.
Sorry, I am currently very busy with coding all the ideas I have, and this is on top of a having my own "regular" job AND doing all the programming for an online store that me and my girlfriend own. If I want to have a chance to quit everything else and trade from a park somewhere in Africa, I have to focus on finding effective forex patterns. BTW, I'm just an amateur programmer and you will never see me coding for money or selling a "killer system" for $99.99
  • #130
  • Aug 31, 2011 5:19am Aug 31, 2011 5:19am
Hope charts will help learning. Here are actual trades. EUR and CHF 15M
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF15M.jpg Size: 83 KB
Making money is easy- Just dont take losing trades
  • #131
  • Aug 31, 2011 7:30am Aug 31, 2011 7:30am
Quoting Survivor
Hope charts will help learning. Here are actual trades. EUR and CHF 15M
Could you please explain why you didn't sell at 1 & 2 and why you didn't buy at 3 ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #132
  • Aug 31, 2011 11:06am Aug 31, 2011 11:06am
Quoting Survivor
Here is my trading "system"! Simple and effective. Hope you like it.

No Specific exit strategy. I exit my half lot at 1*Sl so that my trade becomes free. Then i let other half run with fast trailing of tight stop. I generally let PA guide me. if i see my side winning, i stay in longer. I also take profits when i reach may daily target of 40 pips. So i exit on variety of reasons.

No indicators. I used them and didnt like them. I find more indicators less reliable. It all becomes confusing hell.
Dear Dr. Constrainment,

I placed my first constrainment trade today, albeit a failed one because I did not follow the manual, before I found this thread. I have been reading the CHOROS thread for a while, studying and learning from many of the articles written by you and other dancers.

Looking forward to learning more from you.

- sc
  • #133
  • Aug 31, 2011 11:33am Aug 31, 2011 11:33am
Very Interesting Thread Survivor. The more I read, the more the fog clears. :-)

I did a bit of analysis on a M1 chart from this afternoon. Please critique my understanding of your method.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: PA Momentum analysis 0831 eurusd m1.jpg Size: 82 KB
  • #134
  • Aug 31, 2011 2:44pm Aug 31, 2011 2:44pm
Quoting micmic
Could you please explain why you didn't sell at 1 & 2 and why you didn't buy at 3 ?

Simple reason- because i had achieved my target for the day and had stopped trading.

2 looks like a good entry and my have given 1/2 lot tp and half lot at cost. 3 too is good entry. but it's late in trend. actual entry was much lower- can you see it/ anyway. that candle after entry gives fair warning to get out or at least tighten your sl.
Making money is easy- Just dont take losing trades
  • #135
  • Aug 31, 2011 2:46pm Aug 31, 2011 2:46pm
Quoting Tpc23
Very Interesting Thread Survivor. The more I read, the more the fog clears. :-)

I did a bit of analysis on a M1 chart from this afternoon. Please critique my understanding of your method.


very nice analysis- pretty much how i see markets. forget rules. keep asking who is winning and where is right entry. soon markets will talk to you.
Making money is easy- Just dont take losing trades
  • #136
  • Sep 1, 2011 2:47pm Sep 1, 2011 2:47pm
It's a heck of a lot harder to read the charts real-time than with hindsight !!

Was able to eke out 30 pips this morning.

This is a fun way to do things. Thanks for the dissertation.

T
  • #137
  • Sep 1, 2011 3:37pm Sep 1, 2011 3:37pm
Quoting Tpc23
It's a heck of a lot harder to read the charts real-time than with hindsight !!

Was able to eke out 30 pips this morning.

This is a fun way to do things. Thanks for the dissertation.

T
It sure freakin is!!!
  • #138
  • Sep 1, 2011 10:11pm Sep 1, 2011 10:11pm
Quote
Originally Posted by Tpc23
It's a heck of a lot harder to read the charts real-time than with hindsight !!

Was able to eke out 30 pips this morning.

This is a fun way to do things. Thanks for the dissertation.

T

Agree, this seem to be my biggest issue right now. Any suggestions guys??
  • #139
  • Sep 2, 2011 1:21am Sep 2, 2011 1:21am
Quoting Tpc23
It's a heck of a lot harder to read the charts real-time than with hindsight !!

Was able to eke out 30 pips this morning.

This is a fun way to do things. Thanks for the dissertation.

T
nice to hear that. please post charts so everyone learns
Making money is easy- Just dont take losing trades
  • #140
  • Sep 2, 2011 3:18am Sep 2, 2011 3:18am
Here is what I think is remaining of the manual,.

Setting expectation- Before we take a trade, it’s important to set correct expectation. Are we looking for a quick profit or a runaway move? I check two things to decide this. First, higher time frame- is there any momentum bar? Is there any trend? Trades against higher time frame are often good for few pips. Trades with higher time frames are often big movers. Also, if big data is expected markets will normally consolidate. Big moves will come after the data. So if NFP is expected take quick profits before data and look for a runaway move after data.

Refining Entries: is it beginning of a new move? Or it has already moved a lot? Beginning of a move means either trend reversal or breakout from considerable periods of consolidation. After large moves I am careful to enter fresh trades.

Logical levels: Once we have identified correct direction of entry it’s important to enter at right place. Previous candle hi/lo is one logical level. Other levels that I regard highly are – round numbers, and previous swing highs and lows. What’s the significance of this? Suppose I want to short euro and previous candle low is w.4205. Then I will rather place and sl sell order at 1.4199 instead of previous candle low. This will lose few pips but ensures that a logical support level is taken out before entry

Managing: Not losing money is my first principle. I am quick to tighten my sl to cost at first opportunity. Then generally I follow with candle hi/lows. However it’s important to keep noting if momentum is still strong or momentum is slowing. It’s better to tighten sl or to get out when momentum slows down.

Fakeouts: Before major market open, fakeouts are a known thing. They are better avoided though I have often lost money to them myself.

Character of your currency- this is also important. some currencies are known to churn while some give good breakout moves
Making money is easy- Just dont take losing trades
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