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EUR/USD patterns

  • #81
  • Aug 29, 2011 6:32am Aug 29, 2011 6:32am
i will definitely read over your thread and see how i can find patterns useful.

but what is the rationale for looking for patterns? what are you looking for in a pattern? what does a pattern tell you about the market?
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #82
  • Edited 2:31pm Aug 29, 2011 11:03am | Edited 2:31pm
Quoting the redlion
pattern recognition is not my forte, so i believe you can be a great source of information.

my style of trading is rooted on fundamental analysis and technical analysis, with the philosophy that price can be measured and risks can be minimized but price itself cannot be predicted.

we could post here if you want, i live in the US and i think you too, we could chat through an IM or skype, or whatever is best for you. let me know, i think we can at least both learn something from eachother
Sorry about the deleted post. This is a bit much for me. Usually, I piddle along with my ideas constantly rehashing in posts, while the rare curious onlooker complains about too many lines or about the absurdity of trading on such indefinite terms. So it's refreshing someone wants to learn from it for real.

I'll try and answer your questions, only I don't feel qualified enough to instruct a beginner (unlike yourself) in anything except the very few posts I put in this thread, otherwise I'm the ersatz beginner posting here. So I put the attempt at answers in my journal.

Also, I am on demo and expect to be for a while, so please keep this in mind.
  • #83
  • Aug 29, 2011 2:52pm Aug 29, 2011 2:52pm
hey, dont worry about it.

i trade my capital at my own risk, have been for a while, im not looking for instruction on how to trade.

i got my own ideas about this game and seems to be working for me. i just want to speak with you about the market and share ideas. it doesnt matter if you are on demo, seems like you are very tenacious and really interested in pattern recognition.

i want to know what is the underlying rationale for this way of trading.
do you believe you can profit from the behavior of market participants as the money flowing in and out create a foot print that is repeated thorough out the chart.

do you capture the strength and weakness of supply and demand as the chart shows these pattern of faltering buyer/seller conviction?
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #84
  • Aug 29, 2011 3:12pm Aug 29, 2011 3:12pm
Quoting the redlion
i want to know what is the underlying rationale for this way of trading.
do you believe you can profit from the behavior of market participants as the money flowing in and out create a foot print that is repeated thorough out the chart.

do you capture the strength and weakness of supply and demand as the chart shows these pattern of faltering buyer/seller conviction?
I've discussed in lots, lots of posts my underlying rationale, probably because it's a fragmented thing.
You kind of answered your own question: "behavior...repeated" I depend heavily on these chart attributes, 'behavior' being momentum, anchoring, angles, compromising, and occasional perfectly representative patterns of action (through each of which run a small piece that changes just enough to denote reason eventually for a new direction) that are repeated later.
SD talk is just that, talk.
  • #85
  • Aug 29, 2011 3:18pm Aug 29, 2011 3:18pm
I see.

its a very interesting concept.

gives you a probable outcome of what the next move MIGHT be.

i might start to dabble on this research of chart patters, as i attempt to seize, pips from the oncoming data feed.

i think it might enhance my momentum trading
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #86
  • Aug 29, 2011 3:39pm Aug 29, 2011 3:39pm
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i buy on loss of downward momentum/ POI,
i sell on topping or distribution

money management plays a role in decreasing risk exposure
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #87
  • Aug 29, 2011 7:02pm Aug 29, 2011 7:02pm
Quoting the redlion
Attachment

Attachment



i buy on loss of downward momentum/ POI,
i sell on topping or distribution

money management plays a role in decreasing risk exposure
So you trade Gann Fans. That's all they do to me, measure momentum.

Just joking. Okay, so you've four consecutive parts to a move:

1 POV/post-correction deceleration,
2 acceleration,
3 loss of momentum -- which is "topping" deceleration, 'topping' being the inflection point between 2 and 3
4 correction
And, my guess is distribution is a combination of 3, 4 and 1.

The first thing I always think of in this type of setup is whether price will make another of your 1 between 3 and 4, so that price continues in the same direction instead of returning toward (the first move's) 1.


So what's the deal with the "copy" you noted in the chart? I can't read the candles well enough to imply what they're about, and the symbol name is missing.


Anyway, thanks for the input, it's great.
  • #88
  • Aug 29, 2011 8:52pm Aug 29, 2011 8:52pm
I was using your chart as an example, you are the one that put copy, i think its a repeat pattern thing.

anyway. continuation or reversal is the golden question is in it?. as i have said before we could measure the left side of the chart to gather information but the right side of the chart is moved by the tick

first off, establishing volatility parameters is important in my trading.
then measuring what is plausible in terms of extracting pips from the market is my other measurement,

observing the rhythm and measuring the force of either supply or demand is crucial.

but my approach is not solely technical, i use, market sentiment, option data, correlation in the majors, gold, oil, etc, current events as well. TA and PA are not enemies they are a result of each other.

but then the trading happens, and all data cannot impose on my head an opinion as to cloud my thinking. the daily open as my reference point and managing my position with a PI to Phi ratio of scaling and rescue.

ultimately my goal is to trade the daily by using the 5 minute to position my self
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #89
  • Aug 29, 2011 9:17pm Aug 29, 2011 9:17pm
a question for you would be what patterns do you find more reliable.
and are you into harmonics?

the most common patterns i know about are
long legged ladies
double tops
double bottoms
triple tops
triple bottoms
cup and handle

what are good resources i can read, on your patterns and how successful are they in your opinion?
do you use elliot wave
dow jones theory?
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #90
  • Aug 30, 2011 4:38am Aug 30, 2011 4:38am
Quoting the redlion
a question for you would be what patterns do you find more reliable.
and are you into harmonics?

the most common patterns i know about are
long legged ladies
double tops
double bottoms
triple tops
triple bottoms
cup and handle

what are good resources i can read, on your patterns and how successful are they in your opinion?
do you use elliot wave
dow jones theory?
Whoops on the whose chart...

It's my personality to check out, memorize and, if selected for its usefulness, know enough to use each of a comprehensive list of technical indicators, drawn stuff, theories, before I deconstruct each for its kernel and recombine that kernel with others until the entire soup is unrecognizable from its original source. THEN I make something entirely original, throw that away (mostly), make another original thing and maybe refer it vaguely to but not use directly some studied materials -- as in parallel evolution, where one animal/plant develops in a similar environment the same attributes as another, only they're on different continents and/or during separate eons. FINALLY I make something so original I can call it my own, or at least legitimately challenge anyone who says otherwise. EXCEPT of course, I want it to be accessible for others, not some esoteric stuff only the owner understands -- so I post it and make sure along the creation of it that I can explain it if anyone asks, sort of.

So to answer your question, I don't use any of those, I strive to make my own original theory that may contain those patterns but compete with the popular theories you noted,
and I also understand patterns as all temporary with underlying basic ingredients -- the behavior stuff I answered you with, a few posts ago -- that make all patterns, so that whatever patterns I may cook up compete with the patterns you noted.
I use the patterns you noted, since they're in small, dividable packs of information, but I don't use the theories, since they'd take over all the information I have and replace it with something I don't think is as true to the chart as my theories. I wouldn't mind borrowing a small ingredient from within a theory, however, and certainly have.
For example, I've got the Frost and Prechter book here somewhere; I didn't get too into it, since it's got a lot of Fibonacci stuff in it, which can act like it applies when it's really too general to be useful and so, to me, needs to be carefully isolated for chart situation to apply to.
The Dow Theory, I thought that was more a stock-picking approach with maybe a simple, vague technical attached to it. CANSLIM has more to offer in terms of technicals and Value Line in terms of stock-picking, if you're into traditional, non-mutual-fund investing.
Harmonics, I tried it for a bit -- It's not a HG, since its parameters must change to adapt to the price-time line and not the other way around. However, including its approach more carefully in my theories would likely help a little.

No, mostly I write my own theories that sort patterns according to underlying subpatterns that make all patterns.
As far as explaining them, I do try, only then I write a new version of my theory ; )
  • #91
  • Edited 9:59pm Aug 30, 2011 7:57pm | Edited 9:59pm
.
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  • #92
  • Edited Aug 31, 2011 12:42am Aug 30, 2011 11:31pm | Edited Aug 31, 2011 12:42am
Hi guys, I'm a newbie and I don't have privileges to start new threads, so I was hoping that you could help me and answer to my question here.

My question is about spread and commission in forex. I've been playing with a MB Trading demo account and I don't understand how the spread and commission is calculated there (or in forex in general).

Let's assume this data to make the calculations easier:
Pair: EUR/USD
Spread: 1pip
Commission: 0.5pip ($5)
Size: 1 standard lot

When I place a stop buy at 1.4400 with a SL at 1.4390 and a TP at 14410 (10 pips each side) my order is executed 1 pip earlier (1.4399) and the commission is charged after the trade is closed (therefore I make either a profit of $95 or a loss of 105).

But when I place a stop sell at 1.4400 with a SL at 14410 and a TP at 1.4390 (10 pips each side) my order is executed at 1.4400 and I make either a profit of $85 or a loss of $115.

Can somebody please explain me why it happens like that? Why isn't it just the same for both short and long? Or is it just because MBT does it this way.

Also how is the commission calculated? I thought I had to pay it once to get in and once to get out and according to the example above it's only charged once (which is a good thing of course).


Any help would be much appreciated.

Cheers,
Paul
  • #93
  • Aug 31, 2011 4:10am Aug 31, 2011 4:10am
Quoting tim112779
.
Ask me, you're implying way too much energy in that 30' chart.
The daily chart, I can't really say anything about, the spinning tops are so overwhelming. But the 30' chart, you've got signs of midlines and horizontal support/resistance lines and horizontal channels etc. everywhere below that tiny area to the upper left, besides the solid heft of the larger middle of the chart being in essentially one place.
Yes, I get it's going up, what with the higher lows and a sharp overall recovery, but there's a nice break in the all-red downtrend on the left that makes a nice compromise between the Bollinger Band-ed upper left area and the lower, big central area. That the big middle area gets so bogged down in midline stuff is, to me, more of an issue than you're saying.


1,2 and 3 support your argument -- it's still in momentum (1), price still has a lot of tension in the price-time line of the lower central portion (2), and the midline stuff is respected with a central line as something to rebound off (3),

but 4,5,6,7 and 8 combined, to me, overwhelm price with a midline sensibility.

So to me, price'll rise to the "break" line and stop:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: today tim112779 -- add-ons.png Size: 113 KB


Maybe I'm just being conservative; I guess we'll see soon. Good luck to your trading.
  • #94
  • Aug 31, 2011 4:18am Aug 31, 2011 4:18am
Quoting n1te
Hi guys, I'm a newbie and I don't have privileges to start new threads, so I was hoping that you could help me and answer to my question here.

My question is about spread and commission in forex. I've been playing with a MB Trading demo account and I don't understand how the spread and commission is calculated there (or in forex in general).

Let's assume this data to make the calculations easier:
Pair: EUR/USD
Spread: 1pip
Commission: 0.5pip ($5)
Size: 1 standard lot

When I place a stop buy at 1.4400...
That seems a question for someone who's had to face their real money being lost, so that a dollar here or there matters. This thread is more theoretical, though it can handle current chart conundrums.

You may wish to repeat your post where trading experts in broke rs are, especially as in the MB Trading thread here.
  • #95
  • Aug 31, 2011 5:00am Aug 31, 2011 5:00am
Thanks ha-pattern will do
  • #96
  • Aug 31, 2011 2:40pm Aug 31, 2011 2:40pm
Quoting ha-pattern
Ask me, you're implying way too much energy in that 30' chart.
The daily chart, I can't really say anything about, the spinning tops are so overwhelming. But the 30' chart, you've got signs of midlines and horizontal support/resistance lines and horizontal channels etc. everywhere below that tiny area to the upper left, besides the solid heft of the larger middle of the chart being in essentially one place.
Yes, I get it's going up, what with the higher lows and a sharp overall recovery, but there's a nice break in the all-red downtrend on...
thanks allot HA-pattern -

you know you would give a good analysis!

the 30 min chart was more or less me being bored and just waiting for price to go up.... I am dissapointed because I got into another drawdown and I am currently re-evaluating my risk management areas of trading to not only be able to cut a trade loose to aviod drawdown- but be able to trade other positions as well during this time

my long term bias on eurusd is bullish, thats why i posted monthly chart,,,

keep it up HA- pattern-- i agree with your observations and will keep following

Tim
  • #97
  • Edited 11:22am Apr 7, 2012 10:55am | Edited 11:22am
Was reminiscing on how I got to the point I am in demo -- and compiled a short list. (Click on underlines for links.)

 

  1. Gann, Gartley, Murphy, O'Neil, Darvas, Andrews, Nison, Farley, Elliott, and others in chart drawing (overview, Bulkowski)
  2. Bollinger, Hosoda, Ehlers, Lane, Appel, Williams, others for chart indicators (overview, stockcharts.com) ;
  3. Graham, Hirsch, and others in fundamentals;
  4. not sure about order flow, money management or EA's.
  5. trading psychology -- Van Tharp, Steenberger and others

current resources --
Books (lots free if check), chart platforms (MT4,bigcharts, others), news feeds (yahoo, forex factory, briefing.com) .


Others have their own list and resources, including on several of ff's threads.

  • #98
  • Aug 5, 2012 8:07am Aug 5, 2012 8:07am
Quoting ha-pattern
Was reminiscing on how I got to the point I am in demo -- and compiled a short list. (Click on underlines for links.)
[list][*]Gann, Gartley, Murphy, O'Neil, Darvas, Andrews, Nison, Farley, Elliott, and...


Don't take this the hard way but I was wondering. What do you see when you sleep at night?
  • #99
  • Edited Aug 6, 2012 10:03am Aug 5, 2012 12:45pm | Edited Aug 6, 2012 10:03am
Quoting wh1zz0


Don't take this the hard way but I was wondering. What do you see when you sleep at night?
1) my own chart patterns,moreso
2-4) ignore, mostly
5)anywhere, half (the interp side, vs. input) my own


----
To make this post more useful --

probability theory (none of which I know):
1,2,3
  • #100
  • Aug 7, 2012 10:41am Aug 7, 2012 10:41am
Hi, I'm kind of new in the world of forex. During the last days I have been following the news around the Euro crisis and the decisions of the ECB in order to solve it. One of the possible courses of action is the Bond buying from the most troubled countries like Spain or Italy. Would somebody tell me what will be the effect of this action on the E/U value. Thanks
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