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Order Flow - Achieving the mindset

  • #2,641
  • Aug 25, 2011 11:43am Aug 25, 2011 11:43am
Quoting Darkstar
You can't... he alpha blended it in photoshop.
Damn, this just makes me look like an old fart lol

I'm 22
  • #2,642
  • Aug 25, 2011 3:46pm Aug 25, 2011 3:46pm
May be that's why Carnegie not allowed us to post a chart from the beginning, lol. Sorry for breaking the rule about posting a chart
  • #2,643
  • Aug 25, 2011 4:45pm Aug 25, 2011 4:45pm
Quoting lolpie
Damn, this just makes me look like an old fart lol

I'm 22
Hey, take it easy on us old farts!
  • #2,644
  • Aug 26, 2011 6:25am Aug 26, 2011 6:25am
Quoting Assassin
Talk about intervention effect, BOJ & SNB intervention can create such different impact. I think timing is crucial here, I don’t know why BOJ execute it too early (Aug 01), why not waiting FOMC statement first at Aug 09 just like SNB. As I can see at the chart, from my own view, BOJ execution is not efficient enough changing market sentiment, not enough fundamental thing can help market withdrawing from JPY at Aug 01. Well, for me, that inefficiency interesting enough to be played on.


http://i1191.photobucket.com/albums/...st/compare.jpg...

Well, CHFJPY chart shows the "inefficiency" was corrected a few days ago.
  • #2,645
  • Sep 6, 2011 8:40pm Sep 6, 2011 8:40pm
So....CHF, who got in?
  • #2,646
  • Sep 6, 2011 9:36pm Sep 6, 2011 9:36pm
Quoting lolpie
So....CHF, who got in?
SNB is offering francs at wholesale prices, hard to resist
  • #2,647
  • Sep 6, 2011 9:39pm Sep 6, 2011 9:39pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
Emerald eyes caught a nice one, check the smexy thread. Lucky as fk if you ask me lol but awesome all the same, gotta be in it to win it.

Well done EE
Thank you Cindy. I actually had a near perfect Eur/Chf that got stopped out before launch. There are more longs (Chf shorts), they're way below the chart window now. lol

No luck though, I'll post when its luck
  • #2,648
  • Sep 8, 2011 9:33am Sep 8, 2011 9:33am
This has to be the ugliest chart I've ever seen, it actually makes me grimace

http://content.screencast.com/users/...09-08_1032.png
  • #2,649
  • Sep 8, 2011 10:51am Sep 8, 2011 10:51am
That chart has got to be a joke.
  • #2,650
  • Sep 8, 2011 11:00am Sep 8, 2011 11:00am
Does anyone think this is what caused this?

From what I can tell those are vanilla options being mentioned. I think vanilla options produce orders, but only when they are big options. There was some comments out of the EU commission at that time also, maybe that had something to do with the move?

What do you guys think?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,651
  • Sep 8, 2011 12:48pm Sep 8, 2011 12:48pm
Quoting Nervousone
Does anyone think this is what caused this?

From what I can tell those are vanilla options being mentioned. I think vanilla options produce orders, but only when they are big options. There was some comments out of the EU commission at that time also, maybe that had something to do with the move?

What do you guys think?
A UK clearer was involved in buying those GBP.
  • #2,652
  • Sep 8, 2011 12:50pm Sep 8, 2011 12:50pm
Quoting vicky_ag
A UK clearer was involved in buying those GBP.
How do you know, any way to have known in advance?

edit: found this http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2011/0...by-uk-clearer/
  • #2,653
  • Sep 8, 2011 2:53pm Sep 8, 2011 2:53pm
Quoting Nervousone
How do you know, any way to have known in advance?

edit: found this http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2011/0...by-uk-clearer/
That was my source too. IMO, you cant know in advance. Though sometimes there are news on fixing of a particular pair by a clearer which might be front run lessening the effects.
  • #2,654
  • Sep 9, 2011 3:27am Sep 9, 2011 3:27am
Hedge funds are considering ways to mount a counterattack against the Swiss National Bank, whose attempt to wrest control of the surging franc caught investors off-guard.... (WSJ.com)

The war is near, choose your side wisely... and, prepare for bloodshed.
  • #2,655
  • Sep 9, 2011 3:50am Sep 9, 2011 3:50am
Quoting Assassin
Hedge funds are considering ways to mount a counterattack against the Swiss National Bank, whose attempt to wrest control of the surging franc caught investors off-guard.... (WSJ.com)

The war is near, choose your side wisely... and, prepare for bloodshed.
I'd be surprised if the SNB were to "lose" any time soon. They can print as much money as they need to sell, live with inflation a bit while those who've bought swiss francs live with negative interest rates and the threat/possibility of further intervention, as the SNB said at 1.2 they still consider the franc overvalued and 1.3-1.4 is where they think its value should be. Let's not assume they haven't learned anything from their failed interventions last year and the year before.
  • #2,656
  • Sep 9, 2011 4:53am Sep 9, 2011 4:53am
Quoting randomuser
I'd be surprised if the SNB were to "lose" any time soon. They can print as much money as they need to sell, live with inflation a bit while those who've bought swiss francs live with negative interest rates and the threat/possibility of further intervention, as the SNB said at 1.2 they still consider the franc overvalued and 1.3-1.4 is where they think its value should be. Let's not assume they haven't learned anything from their failed interventions last year and the year before.
I do consider the aggressive style of intervention would not last long, actually I'm more interested to watch BOJ reaction later, seems quiet lately but I think they the one who had learn from past mistakes, it's futile fighting a fast train, they need to slowed it down first, reducing its power a phase at a time until US sign of recovery is clear. Then it's easy to weaken Yen after that.
  • #2,657
  • Sep 15, 2011 11:43am Sep 15, 2011 11:43am
So quiet here, I wonder where's everyone

Got interesting news from CNBC "Why central banks are helping Europe's bank get USD?". Make me thinking about scenarios and searching for answer inside my mind, below points are just my own hypothesis.

 

  1. Europe's crisis creating red lamp for global growth.
  2. Risk aversion risen, the flow going to US as the first choice of save haven, residual effect also spotted on gold.
  3. In the same time slowed global growth also creating instability on US economy, the safe haven flow became bubble.
  4. Bubbles popped makes rating agency give US a negative outlook status, and eventually panic effect making safe haven flow getting stronger.
  5. Meanwhile US safe haven status reduced makes safe haven flow shifting to gold making gold surging high.
  6. Spike on gold make investor "uncomfortable" flowing their money there again, so the overwhelmed risk aversion flow soaking another safe haven places.
  7. Swiss & Japanese currency become next investor's target fleeing from uncertainty.
  8. Swiss & Japanese business cycle damaged by fast appreciation of their currency, making government pushed to take "bold" action.
  9. So, the main problem need to be corrected first will be Europe before restoring US's save haven status & stability. Greece most likely will default, and EU probably will kick Greece out for restoring the stability of union, but that of course going to trigger temporary panic effect. EU needs extra liquidity to cover it.
  10. That's why central banks launching coordinated liquidity providing for EU.

  • #2,658
  • Sep 16, 2011 6:58am Sep 16, 2011 6:58am
Quoting Assassin
So quiet here, I wonder where's everyone

Got interesting news from CNBC "Why central banks are helping Europe's bank get USD?". Make me thinking about scenarios and searching for answer inside my mind, below points are just my own hypothesis.
Dint you hear. The book is out and many orders have now been delivered.

I read somewhere that most of the EUR CDS are being sold my US banks. I think there might be some vested interest here due to "systemic risk".

OT: Fan of Assassin's creed?
  • #2,659
  • Sep 16, 2011 6:18pm Sep 16, 2011 6:18pm
So did anyone here receive the book yet? Thoughts?

I got mine a few hours ago, haven't started yet though.
  • #2,660
  • Sep 17, 2011 4:08am Sep 17, 2011 4:08am
Quoting vicky_ag
Dint you hear. The book is out and many orders have now been delivered.

I read somewhere that most of the EUR CDS are being sold my US banks. I think there might be some vested interest here due to "systemic risk".

OT: Fan of Assassin's creed?
So, everyone must be busy studying now Btw, I'm no Assassin's Creed fan.
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