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VSA with Clifton

  • #281
  • Aug 25, 2011 8:17pm Aug 25, 2011 8:17pm
spotted the setup but missed it was playing PS plus dont like to trace the market at this hours
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  • #282
  • Aug 25, 2011 8:30pm Aug 25, 2011 8:30pm
Quoting cableguy_mcm
very nice clifton i sniped that on 5m enhancenig the enty on 3m with H1 back ground moving my stop on each 5m bar to the high of the previous bar made 55 pips

ok how about that now
Thanks for the post. I like to see what you guys are doing and it brings up points for me to talk about.

The stopping volume and supply line are correct. My only advice is to not worry about labeling bars while price is still under the supply line.

When price is around the middle of the range between the low of stopping volume and supply line, price can get choppy. It is the equilibrium where competing forces are balanced. When the demand overcomes supply, (imbalance) then we have the push through.

To explain that further..we had a down move (supply) then we saw stopping volume (increase in demand). It's not until the supply decreases that an up move is probable, so that is all I concern myself with.

Would you be so kind as to post a 5 min (or 3 min if you prefer) of the entry?
EDIT: ah, I see you posted a 30..but still would like to see that if you feel like posting it.
  • #283
  • Aug 25, 2011 9:45pm Aug 25, 2011 9:45pm
5 min entrys, but why you asked for them,
and i did not get your point, you mean to tell if that a push thru after the accum "meanning after the chopy move??" then i start to label bars as push thru
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  • #284
  • Aug 25, 2011 10:43pm Aug 25, 2011 10:43pm
Quoting cableguy_mcm
5 min entrys, but why you asked for them,
and i did not get your point, you mean to tell if that a push thru after the accum "meanning after the chopy move??" then i start to label bars as push thru
The reason I asked was to see how you mark it for discussion. The chop before the push thru is pointless to label..I just wait for the first push, as shown in many posts, then I label NS, ND, shakeout etc.

For example, labeling a no supply in that chop (low volume on a down move) could actually be a lack of BUYING since price is so close to the demand level..I don't even pay much attention. One thing I must see however is higher volume near the recent low, with no new low on a close to show me demand is still coming in there.
  • #285
  • Aug 25, 2011 10:48pm Aug 25, 2011 10:48pm
Trading/analyzing this time of day is crap, but you get the idea..
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  • #286
  • Aug 25, 2011 11:33pm Aug 25, 2011 11:33pm
OK, so by now we have plenty of examples of the stop/push/test trade that have worked..but not many examples showing when not to take the trade. I'll just list some common reasons. I'll use a down move hitting stopping volume as the example.

1. As mentioned in the last post, when there is stopping volume, the bottom 5-10 pips or so from the low of that bar MUST be protected by buy orders if retested, for the setup to be valid. An example of this was shown in my double bottom post. The second bottom is usually not as high volume as the first, but I need to see a significant increase from its previous few bars.

2. The push through bar is very important. If it has high volume, skip the trade, that means there were down ticks to push through..waring with supply. It must also close near the high to show lack of selling pressure. Entering the trade on this candle is considered aggressive because higher prices can bring supply..so waiting for the NS test is safer.

3. I usually don't enter into a .50 fib area.

4. Look to your left. Make sure you're not buying into a price area that shows high volume supply.

That's all I can think of for now.

Once price starts trending up after the setup, a ns is also a valid entry or chance to add to the trade.
  • #287
  • Aug 26, 2011 5:14am Aug 26, 2011 5:14am
Quoting Clifton
OK, so by now we have plenty of examples of the stop/push/test trade that have worked..but not many examples showing when not to take the trade. I'll just list some common reasons. I'll use a down move hitting stopping volume as the example.

1. As mentioned in the last post, when there is stopping volume, the bottom 5-10 pips or so from the low of that bar MUST be protected by buy orders if retested, for the setup to be valid. An example of this was shown in my double bottom post. The second bottom is usually not as high volume as the first, but...

Man you are very good teacher, and very good VSA analist. Congrats!
Greetings, BeLikewater
  • #288
  • Aug 26, 2011 9:39am Aug 26, 2011 9:39am
Quoting coalvin
anybody knows or can explain why the fast sudden upsurge of eurusd price at 1.44022 to 1.44568? i checked the news but that was 40 minutes ago from the start of the upsurge?

I am not really sure how to analyse this the only thing i know is what to look for entry from bottom or top. LOL!

any understandable explanation will be much appreciated.
Quoting coalvin
i only play eurusd, i am just a beginner. i was preparing for another long when it shoot up suddenly. i don't like that.

been studying VSA since monday, i stopped reading MTM yesterday because the only thing i could remember there is the word "traderguider" seems every line had that word good thing i found this one. the other 2 threads with Shamus and Malcolm is rather long so i started with this first. lucky me.

I just followed every step what Clifton here taught and voila got 3 wins and 1 loss just for this day but still i do not...
Order-flow - Something even " smart money "/institutional traders struggle with ... why ? Well , because they can't see the order books ..it's illegal ..
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  • #289
  • Aug 26, 2011 11:57am Aug 26, 2011 11:57am
thanks Clifton for the new charts and Taomlq4 for that chart for me to ponder.

I'll study them when I don't have office work, if i have questions i'll post them here or message you guys.
  • #290
  • Aug 26, 2011 12:48pm Aug 26, 2011 12:48pm
Quoting coalvin
thanks Clifton for the new charts and Taomlq4 for that chart for me to ponder.

I'll study them when I don't have office work, if i have questions i'll post them here or message you guys.
You 're Welcome ...Understanding Order-flow and combining it with VSA is pretty powerful.....

this Link should help ..

http://www.fxstreet.com/search/contr...1-e9bf77216d2f

As you can see , Prices could not get pass the Larger TF demand levels....News be damned , orders are already in....
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  • #291
  • Aug 26, 2011 2:11pm Aug 26, 2011 2:11pm
Quoting taomql4
You 're Welcome ...Understanding Order-flow and combining it with VSA is pretty powerful.....

this Link should help ..

http://www.fxstreet.com/search/contr...1-e9bf77216d2f

As you can see , Prices could not get pass the Larger TF demand levels....News be damned , orders are already in....
Same trade
  • #292
  • Aug 26, 2011 3:53pm Aug 26, 2011 3:53pm
Quoting Clifton
Now let's look at the entries based on what I've taught in this thread. First one goes right into profit, second one goes 35 pips right into profit..no draw down on either trade. Why right into profit? Because it's the exact point of an extreme supply/demand imbalance.
Clifton, so glad you are back in action....this thread has been one of my favorites and was afraid it was finished.

For the second, "new demand line" in the image, how do you know its a valid demand line, when it seems to have only acted as resistance once?
  • #293
  • Aug 26, 2011 4:45pm Aug 26, 2011 4:45pm
Quoting aw714
Clifton, so glad you are back in action....this thread has been one of my favorites and was afraid it was finished.

For the second, "new demand line" in the image, how do you know its a valid demand line, when it seems to have only acted as resistance once?
Referring to post 280, I think you meant to say it acted as SUPPORT only once.

Reason: A wide spread high volume up bar closing off the high (with no new high close to follow) starts the condition to look for that demand level to setup, and push through. Has nothing to do with the amount of times it acts as support. Hope that answers your question.
  • #294
  • Aug 26, 2011 5:11pm Aug 26, 2011 5:11pm
Quoting Clifton
Referring to post 280, I think you meant to say it acted as SUPPORT only once.

Reason: A wide spread high volume up bar closing off the high (with no new high close to follow) starts the condition to look for that demand level to setup, and push through. Has nothing to do with the amount of times it acts as support. Hope that answers your question.
Yes I did mean support.

Thanks so much, but I'm clearly still missing something. The high volume up bar in the second setup was a few bars before the lower volume up bar that you mark as creating the "new demand line." Also the new demand level is right in the middle of the high volume wide range bar; the high volume bar thus doesn't seem to create the demand line you've marked. Simply put, I guess I am not following how you create the demand lines in the first place.
  • #295
  • Aug 26, 2011 6:04pm Aug 26, 2011 6:04pm
Quoting aw714
Yes I did mean support.

Thanks so much, but I'm clearly still missing something. The high volume up bar in the second setup was a few bars before the lower volume up bar that you mark as creating the "new demand line." Also the new demand level is right in the middle of the high volume wide range bar; the high volume bar thus doesn't seem to create the demand line you've marked.
We are not talking about overwhelming demand that we're going to buy. It's the price level that shows REMAINING demand after supply comes in.

The price bounced off that level no? Its the price at which demand is still overcoming supply. Think about the order flow.

Once we saw weakness come in on the wide up bar, the demand line is simply drawn at the first support level to setup, waiting a minimum of 3 5min bars. (If I had to give it exact rules on bar amounts)

Please be sure to read all my posts.
  • #296
  • Aug 26, 2011 6:42pm Aug 26, 2011 6:42pm
Quoting Clifton
Once we saw weakness come in on the wide up bar, the demand line is simply drawn at the first support level to setup, waiting a minimum of 3 5min bars. (If I had to give it exact rules on bar amounts)
Thanks. The three to five bars is the key; otherwise I wasn't clear on why you chose that bar. That's what I was missing. Thanks for bearing with me.

Since the demand level doesn't have to be retested again for it to be a valid demand level, what do you look for to decide whether a level has been formed? I.e. why did you pick the third bar, and not the fourth or fifth bar after the wide spread bar. Do you look at volume or just how the bar looks? The third bar in this case was the only up bar, and somewhat of a wide spread bar in itself but I imagine this might not always be the case where one only bar fits the bill.
  • #297
  • Edited 8:40pm Aug 26, 2011 7:29pm | Edited 8:40pm
Quoting aw714
Thanks. The three to five bars is the key; otherwise I wasn't clear on why you chose that bar. That's what I was missing. Thanks for bearing with me.

Since the demand level doesn't have to be retested again for it to be a valid demand level, what do you look for to decide whether a level has been formed? I.e. why did you pick the third bar, and not the fourth or fifth bar after the wide spread bar. Do you look at volume or just how the bar looks? The third bar in this case was the only up bar, and somewhat of a wide spread bar in itself but...
I think you are making this much more complicated than it is.
Support..we are just talking about support. How do we know there is a support level on a chart? Because the next bars are higher. We obviously don't know its going to be a support level until the next couple bars bounce.

I'm not picking the third..wherever support shows up..you wait. It's just a minimum of 3 bars after a wide spread bar.
  • #298
  • Aug 27, 2011 8:03pm Aug 27, 2011 8:03pm
hi clifton ..

would you kindly talk about the high volume test coz still confusing me
how about talkin about tests any way, as they are very imprtant.. ofcourse i'm not talking about low volume test...

but some times we see a down bar for example with volume less than the prev bar only and on narrow spread may close to the high or mid or even low would this be considerd test??

plz talk about test shapes
  • #299
  • Aug 28, 2011 11:35am Aug 28, 2011 11:35am
Hi Clifton, I have been reading your thread this weekend again and I must say thank you. A lot of VSA terminology has been confusing to me, and I like your way of keeping it simple and common sense.

Now looking at your chart again ( please see pic below ) : everything makes sense to me, the demand lines are the reverse to the supply lines you have shown before.

However, what made you wait and NOT enter immediately at the green arrow, after this Doji / Pin type bar ? This is what I would probably have done . Also, I see that this high volume down bar closes near its low, which ( if I am correct ) can be a sign of absorbing demand....

So what makes you wait apart from the lines, another retest ? My problem is : in hindsight I can see this quite clearly, but in real-time I still fall into traps.

Once again thanks and please continue.



___________
michael
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Be like water.
  • #300
  • Aug 29, 2011 11:01am Aug 29, 2011 11:01am
Quoting msmarple
what made you wait and NOT enter immediately at the green arrow,
As I stated just a few posts back: "2. The push through bar is very important. If it has high volume, skip the trade"

Cableguy, I'll make a post on tests asap.
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