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The Logic Behind the Pitchfork

  • #81
  • Aug 15, 2011 7:41am Aug 15, 2011 7:41am
Quoting CrucialPoint
Confirmation will be too slow, even if you are using price action. Oh did I tell you I trade the ticks yet can see the hour's and daily's in one chart?
With the help of MAs as dynamic MTF trendlines, determine how hard and what direction the wind is blowing. Trade with the trend, only entering after PA confirms sufficient market momentum to break through the S/R level that the initial pullback bounced off. Avoid exhaustion phase of the current mkt condition as higher proby of false signals.
Audentes Fortuna Juvat
  • #82
  • Aug 15, 2011 7:58am Aug 15, 2011 7:58am
Quoting CrucialPoint
Can you imagine a 4 Dimensional cube's structure in your head? This is very tough for a lot of people to imagine

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cbprfcSVcyQ


Now you still have to step it up into 6 dimensional cube.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bn7HDBj9ZQQ


It's out of the scope of this topic and thread.
If you can understand this last vids, then you can imagine how the the graph is like in 6D.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jkxie...eature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ySBaY...1&feature=fvwp

...
Thank you CP. You couldn't understand how much your respond meant to me .
Sorry everyone if I was perceived asking questions that is irrelevant.
  • #83
  • Aug 16, 2011 1:00am Aug 16, 2011 1:00am
Quoting CrucialPoint
..........

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jkxie...eature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ySBaY...1&feature=fvwp

awesome.

Regards,
TAQ
  • #84
  • Aug 16, 2011 2:51am Aug 16, 2011 2:51am
Quoting CrucialPoint


Here is what I saw Beeb:

Attachment





Just for Crucial Point - here's how the trade went in the last day

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...57#post4873357

beeb
  • #85
  • Aug 16, 2011 10:11am Aug 16, 2011 10:11am
crusial point, you have no idea how much your methods have helped my trading

you and fti are the best information i have ever read.

the shift in dimension and the predicable unpredictability of forex come from the fact that the price is moved by market participant's interest, every tick brings new information to the table.

how can we PREDICT prices and outcomes unless we see the future/

HOWEVER, taking into account information we do possess and using TA to analyse that information, coming to an educated guess, with a contingency plan, meaning for every price level we enter the market will either go in the money or out of the money. entry is nothing but a price reference, of a market moving with every tick.

determining direction, strength, and managing (not predicting the position) is what will get us deep in the money.

on a trending market, which is evident by your reference point which is the average price of the security over a period of time, you determine the lowest risk which would be price weakness on bull or price strength on bear (biases)
fully knowing that you could as well be wrong. or right but ill timed, because for every entry reference point the market can move in 6 different ways.

the momentum or energy, strength, thrust however you want to call it is an important thing gauge prior to taking the trade
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #86
  • Aug 16, 2011 10:21am Aug 16, 2011 10:21am
to add to the discussion.

time does not exist in the market, BUY and SELL orders do.
forex is binary, and the only reason why we USE TIME FRAMES, is purely as a form of analysis.

i dont understand when people talk about higher time frames being more reliable than lower time frames. and how 1hr time frame strategies are different than 1 minute or 1 day time frames.

its all fictitious.

a daily candle is form with 24, 1 hour candles, by the open price the highest price and lowest price and a close price in that span of time.

1440 0ne minute candles is a daily candle.

so what is the difference? the amount of predicting that takes place. eye balling a daily gives us an overall feel of what the price has been doing within 24hrs but tells us nothing of what is coming in the next tick.

PA, TA, FA, are measurements of direction and strength, but cannot predict, once you buy either you will be in the money or out of the money. that simple.
ur order becomes a reference point. and the whole lines on your charts, guess what, the market doesnt see them
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #87
  • Aug 16, 2011 5:02pm Aug 16, 2011 5:02pm
Quoting CrucialPoint
The pitchfork diagram I mentioned "Force" I was referring to Newton's law: momentum, force, inertia etc... Yes, it is the momentum of the market.

=========================================================

In quantum physics there is a "force" that governs and animates every vibrations in this universe.... a force (energy) that governs and animates every atom. And this force which also animates and governs price movements. (this section has nothing to do with pitchforks)
Waves. No more no less. Not like a wave in common sense. Am using quantum physics in my statistics and in the picture below, so I think, is what you are talking about.
Attached Image
  • #88
  • Aug 18, 2011 5:33pm Aug 18, 2011 5:33pm
Quoting Nijee
With the help of MAs as dynamic MTF trendlines, determine how hard and what direction the wind is blowing. Trade with the trend, only entering after PA confirms sufficient market momentum to break through the S/R level that the initial pullback bounced off. Avoid exhaustion phase of the current mkt condition as higher proby of false signals.
huh? he had literally just told you that waiting for confirmation is going to be too late. you are likely just going to get caught in market chop if you do that and will get knocked out of trade after trade. chances are while you are waiting for confirmation, or trading some perceived confirmation, others are already fading the move against your position.

you need to find a way to decide when to trade, fade, or wait.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #89
  • Aug 25, 2011 11:53am Aug 25, 2011 11:53am
The more I study the pitchfork, the more I come to the conclusion that this tool measures the future waves of the market according to tops/bottoms of a previous wave.

If you can find reliable top/bottom/top or bottom/top/bottom in the chart and draw a pitchfork accordingly, most of the future movement of the price will be inside the drawn pitchfork.
  • #90
  • Aug 25, 2011 7:41pm Aug 25, 2011 7:41pm
Quoting mahdiquant
The more I study the pitchfork, the more I come to the conclusion that this tool measures the future waves of the market according to tops/bottoms of a previous wave.

If you can find reliable top/bottom/top or bottom/top/bottom in the chart and draw a pitchfork accordingly, most of the future movement of the price will be inside the drawn pitchfork.
well, yeah, of course. that's like saying water is wet and fire is hot

draw any lines you like that enclose some future space and you will find that price magically stays within this zone... until it doesn't. just like ANY shape trading. trendlines magically work, until they don't. pitchforks work, until they don't. s/r works, until they don't. fibs work, until they don't. and that's not even mentioning all the times that something touches, or doesn't touch, or blasts through and comes back and crosses frantically before finally respecting some imaginary line.

zoom out on your chart, get the horizontal line tool, drop a line on your chart, select the line and grab it with your mouse, close your eyes, move your hand randomly up and down and in circles, release the mouse button, open your eyes and see how many times this absolutely random line you just dropped shows to be some kind of important support / resistance!

it's a bit like dropping a vertical line on your chart. everything sits perfectly on the left of the line, until it breaks and now everything is on the right. it's meaning is zero until you assign some meaning to it.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #91
  • Aug 25, 2011 8:21pm Aug 25, 2011 8:21pm
Quoting nubcake
well, yeah, of course. that's like saying water is wet and fire is hot

draw any lines you like that enclose some future space and you will find that price magically stays within this zone... until it doesn't. just like ANY shape trading. trendlines magically work, until they don't. pitchforks work, until they don't. s/r works, until they don't. fibs work, until they don't. and that's not even mentioning all the times that something touches, or doesn't touch, or blasts through and comes back and crosses frantically before finally...
There is no indicator or tool that can be applied to the markets that will forecast with certainty 100% of the time, of course like anything in existence it works till it doesn't.... my wristwatch falls into the same category, it works until it doesn't, battery or needed repair.... it keeps time until it doesn't..... insert anything you'd like here.

However Andrew's Median Lines, aka Pitchforks fall into a unique category of market framing tools, as they are one of the few actually "leading" indicators. Pitchforks, (if you'll do your homework) you will find have an 80% rate of hitting their respective medianlines during retrace. This has been verified across several markets from various sources. Greg Fisher did his doctoral thesis on median sets “Using Median lines as a Trading Tool: An Empirical Study - Grain Markets 1990 - 2005” same conclusions as above. You can find his work and website easily with a google search.

That's not to say that every pitchfork that you draw and enter a trade will hit these percentages, the trader has much more to do with success than the tool itself.

Forks are based on Newton's laws of Action/Reaction, several posters have hit upon wave theory which is inner-related. Like a rubber band, stretch it far enough it pops back, Waves retrace. Pitchforks are channel related and draw their math from the past 3 alternating historical reversal points, plotting a 3 dimensional time/price midpoint vector for mean revision.

They work if one is willing to do their homework and actually learn to use the tool. Same can be said for just about everything I guess.

regards,
  • #92
  • Aug 25, 2011 8:29pm Aug 25, 2011 8:29pm
Quoting nubcake
wdraw any lines you like that enclose some future space and you will find that price magically stays within this zone... until it doesn't. just like ANY shape trading. trendlines magically work, until they don't. pitchforks work, until they don't. s/r works, until they don't. fibs work, until they don't. and that's not even mentioning all the times that something touches, or doesn't touch, or blasts through and comes back and crosses frantically before finally respecting some imaginary line.

zoom out on your chart, get the horizontal line...

You mean this?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Formations.png Size: 99 KB

  • #93
  • Aug 25, 2011 9:19pm Aug 25, 2011 9:19pm
Quoting auxesis
my wristwatch falls into the same category, it works until it doesn't, battery or needed repair.... it keeps time until it doesn't..... insert anything you'd like here.
poor analogy. i don't know about your watches, but i know that for the next few months that every time i look at my watch it will tell me the correct time over and over and over and over and over. it doesn't randomly crap out because of some unknown reason over and over. in 2hrs 28min and 3 seconds my watch will be exactly 2hrs 28mins and 3 seconds greater than the time it shows right now.

Quote
However Andrew's Median Lines, aka Pitchforks fall into a unique category of market framing tools, as they are one of the few actually "leading" indicators.

...
this sounds a lot like any other form of edge-finding mission where you find a timeframe, a period of time in the past, and find it's effectiveness. whether or not it will continue to hold true into the future is debatable up until the point that some future time has arrived for another round of testing and evaluation.

Quote
Forks are based on Newton's laws of Action/Reaction, several posters have hit upon wave theory which is inner-related. Like a rubber band, stretch it far enough it pops back, Waves retrace. Pitchforks are channel related and draw their math from the past 3 alternating historical reversal points, plotting a 3 dimensional time/price midpoint vector for mean revision.
now this is the intended logic. whether or not this is logical is probably subjective for everyone.

Quote
They work if one is willing to do their homework and actually learn to use the tool. Same can be said for just about everything I guess
and the crux of the problem. surely a good trader can use any reason to get into a trade if the trade is likely to be profitable. the excuse is not the reason the trade is or is not profitable, it's merely the excuse to get in/out. much like a sports person only playing if they wear their lucky underwear. the underwear does not make the player a good player, it's merely the tipping point between doing or not doing.

that's my theory on much of the junk out there.

...

crucialpoint : to be honest, i had princess peach in mind. her double-tops and double-bottoms are undeniable.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #94
  • Aug 25, 2011 10:00pm Aug 25, 2011 10:00pm
Quoting nubcake

that's my theory on much of the junk out there.
There's a few credentialed folks who would disagree with your assessment of this one, but why do you waist the time to counter-post across these boards if you feel it's all junk?
  • #95
  • Aug 25, 2011 10:10pm Aug 25, 2011 10:10pm
Quoting auxesis
There's a few credentialed folks who would disagree with your assessment of this one, but why do you waist the time to counter-post across these boards if you feel it's all junk?
because it's terribly boring when everyone just agrees and decides that the seemingly easy route is the right route.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #96
  • Aug 25, 2011 10:20pm Aug 25, 2011 10:20pm
Quoting nubcake
because it's terribly boring when everyone just agrees and decides that the seemingly easy route is the right route.
The seemingly easy route is a facade, if it were easy then everyone would be making money. Exception being is the Euro thread, it's been weeks since I've seen anyone take a loss there

There's no easy route, it takes time in the markets to learn and get toughened enough to survive, as they will teach you their own lessons. Most don't have the mental or monetary resources to hang in there.

regards.
  • #97
  • Aug 25, 2011 10:29pm Aug 25, 2011 10:29pm
Quoting auxesis
The seemingly easy route is a facade, if it were easy then everyone would be making money. Exception being is the Euro thread, it's been weeks since I've seen anyone take a loss there

There's no easy route, it takes time in the markets to learn and get toughened enough to survive, as they will teach you their own lessons. Most don't have the mental or monetary resources to hang in there.

regards.
unfortunately, i now have to be agreeable with your post. shame on you for not giving me something to have a counter view about
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #98
  • Aug 26, 2011 5:37am Aug 26, 2011 5:37am
Quoting auxesis
my wristwatch falls into the same category, it works until it doesn't, battery or needed repair.... it keeps time until it doesn't..... insert anything you'd like here.

Even a stopped clock is right twice a day...

  • #99
  • Aug 26, 2011 5:41am Aug 26, 2011 5:41am
Quoting auxesis
There is no indicator or tool that can be applied to the markets that will forecast with certainty 100% of the time, of course like anything in existence it works till it doesn't.... my wristwatch falls into the same category, it works until it doesn't, battery or needed repair.... it keeps time until it doesn't..... insert anything you'd like here.

However Andrew's Median Lines, aka Pitchforks fall into a unique category of market framing tools, as they are one of the few actually "leading" indicators. Pitchforks, (if you'll do your homework)...
Thanks auxesis, I will do some work on this topic over the weekend. Looks interesting.

Regarding tools/techniques working and then not working, I make trades when my TA "works", and stop making trades when TA stops "working". For example, a well-drawn trend line tells you (is a graphic representation of) what market participants are doing, and when the trend line is breached, it tells you that market participants have stopped doing what they were doing. That is pretty useful information for a trader. I never understood the notion prescribed by some that trend lines, fibs, etc, do not "work" because they break down over time. Instead, trade them while they work, and stop trading (reconsider the market) when they break down/stop working. TA and tools are not meant to make you money, they are used to provide information for a trader to make money.
  • #100
  • Aug 27, 2011 3:11pm Aug 27, 2011 3:11pm
In case it helps the discussion here is a post I wrote showing how I used forks in GC on Friday.....

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...73#post4907373

beeb
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