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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #27,001
  • Aug 18, 2011 5:14am Aug 18, 2011 5:14am
A picture says a thousand words...

S
Attached Image
  • #27,002
  • Aug 18, 2011 9:46am Aug 18, 2011 9:46am
Quoting auxesis
Broadening patterns, expanding wedges, successful new highs, lows, highs ect......
I was about to mention, I absolutely hate those two patterns. I deal with them my cutting size and playing the range. What's your strategy for those?
  • #27,003
  • Aug 19, 2011 7:44am Aug 19, 2011 7:44am
Quoting Setebos
A picture says a thousand words...

S

That is the best description of the situation I have seen yet. Almost spit coffee on my puter I laughed so hard.
  • #27,004
  • Aug 20, 2011 3:38am Aug 20, 2011 3:38am
been experimenting, it seems best way to deal with those patterns is anticipate what may happen by reducing skew and spreading out. If playing the volatility, lock in profits quickly.

I have a question:
For example, let's say you are mistimed on 5min. On hourly you see a possible level to rescue, however you do not know WHEN it will happen. Is there a way to estimate the time required for rescue?

Up till now I've been convinced that we cannot give time estimates, only choose rescue spots by feel.
  • #27,005
  • Aug 20, 2011 4:42am Aug 20, 2011 4:42am
Quoting fullperson
Is there a way to estimate the time required for rescue?

Up till now I've been convinced that we cannot give time estimates, only choose rescue spots by feel.
Time estimation may result in another mistimed entry demanding level 2 rescue.....it would be best to leave it to momentum and volatility feel.
  • #27,006
  • Aug 20, 2011 4:48am Aug 20, 2011 4:48am
nice post 100% agreed.. thanks for the share
  • #27,007
  • Aug 20, 2011 6:41am Aug 20, 2011 6:41am
Quoting fullperson
been experimenting, it seems best way to deal with those patterns is anticipate what may happen by reducing skew and spreading out. If playing the volatility, lock in profits quickly.

I have a question:
For example, let's say you are mistimed on 5min. On hourly you see a possible level to rescue, however you do not know WHEN it will happen. Is there a way to estimate the time required for rescue?

Up till now I've been convinced that we cannot give time estimates, only choose rescue spots by feel.
FP,

Somewhere early in this thread, Fti mentions that Banks are not concerned with time only price/level. Fti's bank was staffed in 3 shifts, around the clock, albeit Daylight/SG was given priority.

You have touched on an issue, that the thread went through a while back, but it seems fitting to rehash from time to time for all to remember.

Firstly, trying to predict anything is contrary to Fti's teaching in this thread. Others may take predictive approaches but it's not a part of the methods described here.

Secondly, when engaging the markets you have to be committed to see the trade through, good or bad. There's plenty of discussion about being caught in rescue and running out of time to trade. This is one of the areas where people mutate the original teachings into a self-fit for the trader, normally with negative consequences.
  • #27,008
  • Edited 3:44pm Aug 20, 2011 3:20pm | Edited 3:44pm
Interesting article... "New Normal"
http://moneymorning.com/2011/08/19/n...et-volatility/

Good rest to all!
  • #27,009
  • Aug 22, 2011 2:23am Aug 22, 2011 2:23am
Understood

Quoting auxesis
FP,

Somewhere early in this thread, Fti mentions that Banks are not concerned with time only price/level. Fti's bank was staffed in 3 shifts, around the clock, albeit Daylight/SG was given priority.

You have touched on an issue, that the thread went through a while back, but it seems fitting to rehash from time to time for all to remember.

Firstly, trying to predict anything is contrary to Fti's teaching in this thread. Others may take predictive approaches but it's not a part of the methods described here.

Secondly, when engaging...
  • #27,010
  • Aug 23, 2011 1:34pm Aug 23, 2011 1:34pm
This s##t felt preety bad..had to walk down from building....
  • #27,011
  • Aug 23, 2011 4:05pm Aug 23, 2011 4:05pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
This s##t felt preety bad..had to walk down from building....
Hope no one was hurt.
  • #27,012
  • Aug 23, 2011 4:19pm Aug 23, 2011 4:19pm
Quoting M-H Trader
Hope no one was hurt.
Nope...thanks for asking....

V
  • #27,013
  • Aug 23, 2011 6:02pm Aug 23, 2011 6:02pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
This s##t felt preety bad..had to walk down from building....
Good to hear that you are ok. How is the rest of the crew from the East?

Any word how FTI is doing? Hope his recovery is going well!
See you
  • #27,014
  • Aug 23, 2011 11:23pm Aug 23, 2011 11:23pm
Quoting Setebos
A picture says a thousand words...

S
Instead of "socialism", it should say "Capitalism/Communism/Central Banks/Fiat Currency/Debt-Based Monetary System". I'm not advocating Socialism, just saying that Socialism isn't what is causing the economic problems.
  • #27,015
  • Aug 24, 2011 3:20am Aug 24, 2011 3:20am
As said a lot: all technical tools work and non the them work. Quite a contradicting statement, but it is so true. Every tool has it`s own time and own way to offer information about probable price movement. Gather all the technical tools together on one chart and you can be sure that you end up with no information that can help you.

Also the "Holy Grail" was brought into discussion. I don`t know who did it first time ever, but I know for sure that this guy has wasted countless hours of traders who has looked for it many years and plenty of traders are still looking for it. I would not say that there is no holy grail, but I would say for sure that it is unreachable for traders. It is all about information. For example if you would know exactly what are the major economic numbers before announcement it would be holy grail. If you would know exactly when and in which direction the large traders are coming into market it would be also holy grail. In case you treat your technical system as a holy grail which is just designed to give you the probable edge to rather be right than wrong you end up with destroying your account.
  • #27,016
  • Aug 24, 2011 4:20am Aug 24, 2011 4:20am
come on uj, bottom out
  • #27,017
  • Aug 24, 2011 4:34am Aug 24, 2011 4:34am
Quoting fullperson
come on uj, bottom out
it seems too difficult to break withourt BOJ intervening .
A chart helps those who can read it.
  • #27,018
  • Aug 24, 2011 9:12am Aug 24, 2011 9:12am
Quoting fullperson
come on uj, bottom out
Seriously?
  • #27,019
  • Aug 24, 2011 11:13am Aug 24, 2011 11:13am
Mr. "exuberance of the markets":

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-0...ck-prices.html

Rgs.

Textor
  • #27,020
  • Aug 24, 2011 11:56am Aug 24, 2011 11:56am
Quoting textor
Mr. "exuberance of the markets":

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-0...ck-prices.html

Rgs.

Textor
I thought he was going to retire. Wishful thinking...
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