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Confused about stop hunting

  • #41
  • Aug 22, 2011 4:21am Aug 22, 2011 4:21am
Quoting egadsforex
With all due respect and in my humble opinion I find that statement to be TOTALLY RIDICULOUS.
I'm not really sure why you'd find that so hard to picture. Read what eurotrash just said, I couldn't have put it better.
  • #42
  • Aug 23, 2011 7:28pm Aug 23, 2011 7:28pm
Quoting eurotrash
.

If I may be so bold, it appears your understanding of the finer details of the market is lacking. I tend to agree with your basic objection, but it's obvious you have an axe to grind so I'm calling you out.
Hello;
No, I have no axe to grind whatsoever. I just call 'em as I see 'em.

Firstly, recent figures say that the forex market is between 3 and 4 trillion dollars per day but that's really beside the point.

Secondly, yes there might be a very slight possibility that you could move the market with a 100k account but it would be an extreme rarity. It doesn't seem that it is in the context of this thread. To believe that someone with a 100k account can move the market; not gon'na happen. For a 900k account, yes, that's a little more possible so maybe there needs to be a little more clarification about a "6 figure account".

Still, the essence of this thread is about stop hunting which normally is not a result (moving the market by 15 pips or so to take out clusters of stops) of someone with a 6 figure account.

If successful trading is about focusing on probabilities then your scenario is not that likely.

Thank you.
  • #43
  • Aug 23, 2011 8:31pm Aug 23, 2011 8:31pm
Quoting egadsforex
Firstly, recent figures say that the forex market is between 3 and 4 trillion dollars per day but that's really beside the point.
He was referring to spot turnover. The 4 trillion dollar number is the turnover of the entire foreign exchange market.

Copy/paste from wikipedia.

Quote

The $3.98 trillion break-down is as follows:

 

  1. $1.490 trillion in spot transactions
  2. $475 billion in outright forwards
  3. $1.765 trillion in foreign exchange swaps
  4. $43 billion Currency swaps
  5. $207 billion in options and other products

From the BIS survey

Quote
Foreign exchange spot turnover rose to $1.5 trillion in April 2010 from $1.0 trillion, an
increase of 48% at current exchange rates
Here's the survey to anyone interested. . . http://www.bis.org/publ/rpfx10.pdf
Cautiously optimistic. . .
  • #44
  • Aug 23, 2011 9:21pm Aug 23, 2011 9:21pm
Quoting egadsforex
I find that statement to be TOTALLY RIDICULOUS.
Quoting egadsforex
To believe that someone with a 100k account can move the market; not gon'na happen.
And at the same time you say:

Quoting egadsforex
your scenario is not that likely.
Impossible and "not that likely" are two different things you know. Darkstar just said that it's possible (which is true), not "likely", nor that you should try to move the market.

Quoting egadsforex
moving the market by 15 pips or so to take out clusters of stops
Again, where exactly did he say that we look to move the market by 15 pips and take out stops? You do have an axe to grind as you're completely missing the point of his statement.
  • #45
  • Aug 23, 2011 9:23pm Aug 23, 2011 9:23pm
Quoting Tact1cal
He was referring to spot turnover. The 4 trillion dollar number is the turnover of the entire foreign exchange market.

Copy/paste from wikipedia.

From the BIS survey

Here's the survey to anyone interested. . . http://www.bis.org/publ/rpfx10.pdf
As I already said, that's really irrelevant. Especially when you're talking about a "6 figure account".

What difference does a $trillion or 2 make anyway.

Thank you.
  • #46
  • Aug 23, 2011 9:30pm Aug 23, 2011 9:30pm
Quoting egadsforex
What difference does a $trillion or 2 make anyway.
It directly alters the probability of being able to move price with a $100k account?

Quoting egadsforex
Thank you.
No problem.
  • #47
  • Edited 10:05pm Aug 23, 2011 9:36pm | Edited 10:05pm
Quoting egadsforex
What difference does a $trillion or 2 make anyway.
A whole fucking lot IMO.

Edit:

Now I don't have an opinion in this 6 figure account debate but if you want to come to a reasonable conclusion you have to take liquidity into account. Like Eurotrash pointed out earlier the liquidity is spread throughout all the pairs in the spot. 30%+ of that liquidity goes to just 3 pairs leaving several other pairs fighting for only 1 trillion dollars to be spread across them.

Also, I'm pretty sure DS doesn't stop hunt by himself. I don't think anyone does. Stop hunts are more of a group effort. Everyone who knows about the stops will participate in taking them out as they provide a profit incentive and a liquidity "hot spot" for various objectives to be filled.
Cautiously optimistic. . .
  • #48
  • Aug 23, 2011 9:41pm Aug 23, 2011 9:41pm
Quoting Marv
And at the same time you say:



Impossible and "not that likely" are two different things you know. Darkstar just said that it's possible (which is true), not "likely", nor that you should try to move the market.



Again, where exactly did he say that we look to move the market by 15 pips and take out stops? You do have an axe to grind as you're completely missing the point of his statement.
hmmmm.... I don't think I'm missing the point at all. This thread was about stop hunting so I submit that moving the market by a pip (or a nano pip) is not stop hunting. Certainly, ANYTHING is possible. If I wanted to pay a 50 pip spread on Christmas Eve perhaps I could move the market by a pip on a 1k account. That's possible, right? (don't know, never tried, don't intend to).

Also, there is the matter of clarification of a "6 figure account" which you may have failed to read. There's a fairly large difference between 100k and 999k.

Further, how does everyone get off on saying I have an axe to grind simply because I state my opinion. Now we have a second definition that should be forthcoming. "axe to grind" = stating opinion. Yes?
  • #49
  • Aug 23, 2011 9:56pm Aug 23, 2011 9:56pm
If you're in a market and think you've been taken out for whatever reason, you probably are on the wrong side and need to improve your technical accuracy, I suspect.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #50
  • Aug 23, 2011 10:06pm Aug 23, 2011 10:06pm
Quoting traider
If you're in a market and think you've been taken out for whatever reason, you probably are on the wrong side and need to improve your technical accuracy, I suspect.
That pretty much says it. I must blame it on me. And be careful on either side of those round numbers. Just my opinion of course. My axe grinder is worn out.

Thank you.
  • #51
  • Edited 10:20pm Aug 23, 2011 10:09pm | Edited 10:20pm
Quoting egadsforex
This thread was about stop hunting so I submit that moving the market by a pip (or a nano pip) is not stop hunting.
No, you said moving price with a 6 figure account is a ridiculous statement, which was pretty dumb. (no offense to your person)

As for "moving the market by a pip (or a nano pip) is not stop hunting", who said it is? A major cluster of stops can be 1 pip or 100 pips away. And again: We're not trying to move price or trigger stops. It's not us that are trying to do that. We're just interested in the phenomena (which btw does happen in the market more than you might think, and THIS was Darkstar's point from that statement).

Do you know why we're interested in this phenomena? Or will you continue to think that you understand what this is about when you obviously don't? lol
  • #52
  • Aug 23, 2011 10:20pm Aug 23, 2011 10:20pm
Quoting traider
If you're in a market and think you've been taken out for whatever reason, you probably are on the wrong side and need to improve your technical accuracy, I suspect.
Another person who doesn't get it who helped falsly reassure the other person who doesn't get it that they both get it.

Classic FF.
  • #53
  • Aug 23, 2011 10:33pm Aug 23, 2011 10:33pm
Quoting Marv
No, you said moving price with a 6 figure account is a ridiculous statement, which was pretty dumb. (no offense to your person)

As for "moving the market by a pip (or a nano pip) is not stop hunting", who said it is? A major cluster of stops can be 1 pip or 100 pips away. And again: We're not trying to move price or trigger stops. It's not us that are trying to do that. We're just interested in the phenomena (which btw does happen in the market more than you might think, and THIS was Darkstar's point from that statement).

Do you...
LOL. No offense to my person taken. However, I don't feel that what I have written is being read by persons such as yourself. If you would be so kind as to notice phrases like "clarification of 6 figure account", etc., etc. I could go on but can see it would be useless.

If you're only interested in the phenomena then you have probably never participated in the reality and therefore, know not of that which you speak.

FYI here is an excerpt from an article which may help you out;

"Because the human mind naturally seeks order, most stops are clustered around round numbers ending in "00". For example, if the EUR/USD pair was trading at 1.2470 and rising in value, most stops would reside within one or two points of the 1.2500 price point rather than, say, 1.2517. This fact alone is valuable knowledge, as it clearly indicates that most retail traders should place their stops at less crowded and more unusual locations."

The entire article is located at:
http://www.investopedia.com/articles...#axzz1VueZpPug

If you really study the article for a bit it may help you in understanding and participating in this "phenomena".

Thank you



  • #54
  • Aug 23, 2011 10:37pm Aug 23, 2011 10:37pm
Quoting Marv
Another person who doesn't get it who helped falsly reassure the other person who doesn't get it that they both get it.

Classic FF.
With all due respect; you're such a little treasure with your clever words. I'm sorry that you don't get it but I LOVE you anyway.... you're such a little treasure.

mmmmmWWWWWaaaaaaa...
  • #55
  • Aug 23, 2011 10:47pm Aug 23, 2011 10:47pm
Quoting egadsforex
"Because the human mind naturally seeks order, most stops are clustered around round numbers ending in "00". For example, if the EUR/USD pair was trading at 1.2470 and rising in value, most stops would reside within one or two points of the 1.2500 price point rather than, say, 1.2517. This fact alone is valuable knowledge, as it clearly indicates that most retail traders should place their stops at less crowded and more unusual locations."
I'd say the above statement is false. More Eur/Usd stops are found at "20" than "00".

Carol Osler > Investopedia
  • #56
  • Aug 23, 2011 11:09pm Aug 23, 2011 11:09pm
Quoting EmeraldEyes
I'd say the above statement is false. More Eur/Usd stops are found at "20" than "00".

Carol Osler > Investopedia
If you would care to ACTUALLY READ the article that's very close to what it said. Nowhere did it say that stops were at "00". It's not that the strategy would work at this time, it was part of the idea of this thread.

(I just love those little smiley's, don't you)

Disclaimer.
The opinion(s) expressed are solely my own and do not reflect anything other than my insensitive nature. They (the opinions) are only reflective of my own nature and are not binding upon the readers of this thread or owners of this website.
  • #57
  • Aug 23, 2011 11:37pm Aug 23, 2011 11:37pm
Quoting Marv
Another person who doesn't get it who helped falsly reassure the other person who doesn't get it that they both get it.

Classic FF.
There's no false comfort in this game. You either understand where the tipping points are or you don't. Watch those round numbers like a hawk.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #58
  • Sep 23, 2011 8:48pm Sep 23, 2011 8:48pm
Quoting Marv
Blah blah blah. You're not even an OF trader. Your "opinion" on DS and his book is of no value. - Hence my comment.

No need to put you on ignore as it's easy to not read your posts.
Most aggressive Trader in all FF , No change!!
  • #59
  • Sep 23, 2011 9:13pm Sep 23, 2011 9:13pm
Quoting Marv
No, you said moving price with a 6 figure account is a ridiculous statement, which was pretty dumb. (no offense to your person)

As for "moving the market by a pip (or a nano pip) is not stop hunting", who said it is? A major cluster of stops can be 1 pip or 100 pips away. And again: We're not trying to move price or trigger stops. It's not us that are trying to do that. We're just interested in the phenomena (which btw does happen in the market more than you might think, and THIS was Darkstar's point from that statement).

Do you...
Damn.... I'd forgotten about this post. Now that I reflect upon it, Mr. Dark Star's submission was that anyone with a 100k account could "move the market". This is ridiculous unless you're talking about extreme circumstances.

There's no doubt that you must be a follower if you're "stop hunting". Anyway, if it's only a "phenomena" then you must not be a participant and are still studying the possibility of an actual event.

You're a "theorist" who has not put into practice the idea?
  • #60
  • Sep 23, 2011 9:23pm Sep 23, 2011 9:23pm
Quoting egadsforex
Damn.... I'd forgotten about this post. Now that I reflect upon it, Mr. Dark Star's submission was that anyone with a 100k account could "move the market". This is ridiculous unless you're talking about extreme circumstances.

There's no doubt that you must be a follower if you're "stop hunting". Anyway, if it's only a "phenomena" then you must not be a participant and are still studying the possibility of an actual event.

You're a "theorist" who has not put into practice the idea?
Say what you will, but I personally have moved the market in excess of 2 pips all by my lonesom. If you choose to believe the horseshit about a $4t market, then by all means you are welcome to think what you want of my comments. However, the market cares not for your opinions and neither will anyone else...

Luck be with you.
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