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Silent Service Method

  • #12,961
  • Aug 21, 2011 10:24pm Aug 21, 2011 10:24pm
It's 11:21 pm EST and silver is up 2.3% already. Gold is up as well.....but silver is shooting straight up lately. Shows how much fear there is in the market....IMHO.
  • #12,962
  • Aug 22, 2011 8:32pm Aug 22, 2011 8:32pm
Some charts that I am watching, and what they could say about the market.
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  • #12,963
  • Aug 23, 2011 7:34am Aug 23, 2011 7:34am
The end of the week has the Fed meeting/Jackson Hole retreat for financial terrorists from around the globe. That would be central bankers to those of you that don't know.

The markets are starting to price in Bernanke bailing everyone out yet again, but the truth is that he is somewhat limited in what he can do. There is no way in hell stimulus in the past form gets approved. Big Ben certainly knows that if Obama gets tossed - his tenure as Fed Chairman will be shortened considerably.

With the market thinking they can push him into a corner, the real move will be if and when he says "No Mas", and the market suddenly realizes they are going to have to stand on their own, just like big boys and girls. If he does this - a lot of things are going to go ape shit on Friday.

Because of this, I have been laying a bit low this week, knowing that the move down (if it happens) will be the real move. Currency pairs like the NZD/USD, AUD/USD, EUR/USD, and the USD/CAD will all move in the USD's favor if he actually thinks for himself, and doesn't do what his masters on Wall Street are demanding.

Of course, only time will tell - but since the QE2 systems hasn't worked, even an idiot like Bernanke can see the QE3 process won't either. I would hope at least......The truth is there are a lot of people that has refused to take their losses - maybe they will soon. If not - the system falling apart certainly will accelerate that process in the future.

Actually, if he kills the USD off some more, the real winner will be the Euro, as it gives that dead currency a reprieve for a while.
  • #12,964
  • Aug 23, 2011 5:14pm Aug 23, 2011 5:14pm
good insight CW. I really hope the fed does nothing.
  • #12,965
  • Aug 23, 2011 5:15pm Aug 23, 2011 5:15pm
Quoting drebin
good insight CW. I really hope the fed does nothing.

If they don't it will get ugly.....
  • #12,966
  • Aug 23, 2011 5:20pm Aug 23, 2011 5:20pm
I am presently doing my yearly contracting work down at Ohio State University. The students are coming back, and this guy's car is classic!
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  • #12,967
  • Aug 24, 2011 7:42am Aug 24, 2011 7:42am
Strong numbers out of the USA this morning. Should be interesting to see how it's interpreted. On one hand......strong economy, kill dollar, buy stocks. But in this case, it could play out differently......the world wants Bernanke to kill the USD this Friday, and these numbers (along with increasing money supply, meaning the banks are starting to lend) might just make him do nothing. If that's the case......Friday should be interesting to say the least. Either way, I suggest being very picky in taking new orders.

The one pair that should move somewhat predictably - USD/CAD. More economic activity, more oil being used. Stronger US = Stronger Canada.

Off to paint @ Ohio State for the day, will check in later. Only 10 more days, and I am done w/ painting forever......

Chris
  • #12,968
  • Aug 24, 2011 8:38pm Aug 24, 2011 8:38pm
I think if there is too much bad news than the USD goes up and if there is too much good news the USD goes up. The USD has to basically be flying under the radar to really be able to take advantage of the trends that we've been experiencing for the past few months.
  • #12,969
  • Aug 24, 2011 9:13pm Aug 24, 2011 9:13pm
Quoting dre3029
I think if there is too much bad news than the USD goes up and if there is too much good news the USD goes up. The USD has to basically be flying under the radar to really be able to take advantage of the trends that we've been experiencing for the past few months.
The truth is that sooner or later - something has to be done about Europe in general. The USD is still where people go to hide out, and I think that we will certainly have plenty of reasons to hide out from time to time in the near future.

Something that I have noticed is that this time of year is normally a huge indication of where we are going for months and months down the road. Perhaps this Friday will be the catalyst? Maybe Bernanke does do the QE3 thing......if so - the EUR/USD breaks the pseudo-flag and runs to 1.65 before it is all said and done. (Or, at least until the EU explodes)

All I know is that the biggest moves of the year are normally around this time of year when traders come back from vacation. I know this because it seems that I am always working at Ohio State when it happens, and too tired to be bothered to get overly interested in the markets for a couple of weeks.

I am waiting to see what happens, but I am not going to miss it this year if/when that move comes.
  • #12,970
  • Aug 25, 2011 8:15am Aug 25, 2011 8:15am
Gang,

None of you should be worried about trading today. I haven't even opened my charts because I know that the Jackson Hole statement is coming at 10 am EST tomorrow. With knowing how important that is for the USD's direction, I am also aware of the fact that the markets will probably be a waste of time until then. However, the move tomorrow has the probability of being something that actually matters for a few months. Only time will tell - but I know that today isn't the day, barring some life-altering news. I might pull up the charts tonight and see if I can come up with a couple of pairs that look like they are "leaning in a particular direction", something I talk about every once in a while. If they are already leaning in a direction - news affirming that can send them moving quickly.
  • #12,971
  • Aug 25, 2011 3:54pm Aug 25, 2011 3:54pm
Sounds like good advice. QE3 or not, that's the question... to paraphrase Hamlet
  • #12,972
  • Aug 25, 2011 9:45pm Aug 25, 2011 9:45pm
Taking a look at all of the pairs.....without a doubt the commodity dollars are going to be the currencies that move the most after the Jackson Hole speech tomorrow. Because of this, I notice the USD/CAD looked interesting. We are stuck between two levels, and this could be the thing that "unsticks" it.
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  • #12,973
  • Aug 26, 2011 7:12pm Aug 26, 2011 7:12pm
I found the reaction of the currency markets very interesting. I know that the EUR/USD is sitting right at 1.45, and that area is a massive resistance point. The AUD/USD rose above the 1.05 level, but is still under the 1.06 - a place that turned it back down last time. The NZD/USD pair is still sitting in consolidation, even if it went up today. And lastly, the USD/CAD dropped, but nothing worth mentioning as the 0.98 level is still below. Odd really........

The volume should be picking up the first week of September. Should point the way in the FX markets...
  • #12,974
  • Aug 26, 2011 9:00pm Aug 26, 2011 9:00pm
Quoting clockwork71
I found the reaction of the currency markets very interesting. I know that the EUR/USD is sitting right at 1.45, and that area is a massive resistance point. The AUD/USD rose above the 1.05 level, but is still under the 1.06 - a place that turned it back down last time. The NZD/USD pair is still sitting in consolidation, even if it went up today. And lastly, the USD/CAD dropped, but nothing worth mentioning as the 0.98 level is still below. Odd really........

The volume should be picking up the first week of September. Should point the way in the...
Have free time and ready for next set up BUT market close
Next week when market open after 4H market should go down to 4410
It just what i c and I'm sure everyone trade his own chart
Thought to post it , Better get some sleep

Cya
  • #12,975
  • Aug 27, 2011 3:02pm Aug 27, 2011 3:02pm
Quoting egkid
Have free time and ready for next set up BUT market close
Next week when market open after 4H market should go down to 4410
It just what i c and I'm sure everyone trade his own chart
Thought to post it , Better get some sleep

Cya
It is hard to tell what will happen, but I can say that the EUR/USD seems like it is trying to build up a run to the upside. Will it last? I don't know, but to be honest, I am shocked we are over the 1.40 mark still.......so what do I know?
  • #12,976
  • Aug 27, 2011 9:07pm Aug 27, 2011 9:07pm
quick video on the blog tonight.....

Chris
  • #12,977
  • Aug 28, 2011 4:11pm Aug 28, 2011 4:11pm
Hi,
im in this thread for a while and at first i want to say thank you for this best practices bible.
As for EUR/USD i decided to jump in as for me the formation that is currently forming is looking like flag formation - means uptrend will continue on weekly chart. What you guys think?
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  • #12,978
  • Aug 28, 2011 5:29pm Aug 28, 2011 5:29pm
Quoting AdamG
Hi,
im in this thread for a while and at first i want to say thank you for this best practices bible.
As for EUR/USD i decided to jump in as for me the formation that is currently forming is looking like flag formation - means uptrend will continue on weekly chart. What you guys think?

I somewhat agree with this, but I am looking for a daily close above the 1.45 area before jumping in. I am skeptical, but then again.....I have been skeptical about the Euro for a long, long time........and that hasn't paid off when I listened to it.

Chris
  • #12,979
  • Aug 28, 2011 9:26pm Aug 28, 2011 9:26pm
Quoting clockwork71
I somewhat agree with this, but I am looking for a daily close above the 1.45 area before jumping in. I am skeptical, but then again.....I have been skeptical about the Euro for a long, long time........and that hasn't paid off when I listened to it.

Chris
why would you be skeptical of the EU, the Marxist experiment is going great guns
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #12,980
  • Aug 28, 2011 10:01pm Aug 28, 2011 10:01pm
Quoting whitegoodman
why would you be skeptical of the EU, the Marxist experiment is going great guns
It's because they aren't Aussies WG!
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