USDCAD trend reversal?

yes. nobody is always right. is IMO anyway.

Hmmmm...oil is still falling...not looking good for the CAD right now.

Huge move though...so I get some sort of retracement could happen and we can get in long?!

Hey there Shamu, did you keep your long? Here we are at 98!

Hey Kim, I'm on my way out, I'll PM you later.
I had the wildest and best week ever!!! UC and UJ

Don't count on retracement just yet.
Wait for Monday morning after the US stock market opens.
See were the DJ is going with the newest info, the S&P credit downgrade from AAA to AA+. If the stock market tanks, UC will go up!!!!
If that happens, I will probably go in heavy short @ parity. If not, I'll go short were it is and short till 0.9635, then see how it goes.

S&P downgrade is a warning shot across the bow to Washington.
Washington unless it is completely mad will listen.
The Bond market is speaking.

The US debt trajectory must be acted upon over the coming months.
The rate of increase in spending, which is all the debt reduction crowd has managed so far to address, will be lowered. This on a macro scale enforces the deleveraging scenario.

With the US government finally being forced to confront spending policy the Nations credit card is maxed out.

Big negative for long term inflation expectations.

We have arrived at the point where something will give.

My trade remains short commodity currencies. Bernanke will do his utmost to wreck that trade, but the markets are bigger then the Fed, so will stick with the market.

The AUD/USD will experience volatility, but since it has been bulled up to such extremes by money printing and bailouts. The AUD should be a really good short over the coming year.

The BOJ intervention is strong indication that Asia is not all it is talked up to be. Who is China to sell to with America and Europe weakening. The Chinese debt bubble is unsustainable.

Likewise the CAD is under pressure, the oil bull just got swiped by the Bear., But it is also a safe haven currency due to the strength of the Banking system.

Will trade the USD/CAD long as a trending market, the caveat is that it may just remain a range bound market from safe haven flight out of Europe.
Easy to make predictions on past chart action, not such a simple thing to clearly see the future.

http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=398

July27th

unfortunately Im already out.... but I still wanted to post this...

Good Evening,
USD/CAD took out the 200 day sma looks strong.

AUD/USD also took out the 200 day sma. Asia is not looking good either.

The Fed will most likely announce an early QE3 if the equities keep dumping.

Suggest people google posts by Charles Nenner. Cycle analyst and super bear.
Also Harry Dent seems to be appearing pretty smart these past few days.
Something bigger then the Fed and the ECB can deal with appears to be breaking upon the globe.

Confidence is being shaken and the perma bulls seem dazed.

From my charts the Euro/USD is being supported by central bank intervention or by China. It is not falling because of this.

Will see what the Bernanke has up his sleeve soon enough.

Good luck.

Buy stop 9940.

Risk aversion + low volume + gold
Commodities dropping
More info re: china bubble
Scalping rather than looking for medium to longer term trades.

Big reversal bars on commodity currency charts. Closed all shorts.
Certainly does appear as savers are public enemy number one.

Bought Aud/USD for tonights Asia session which it is hard to believe will not rally.

Default by inflation is Fed policy.

QE2 never ended.

Only thing that can alter the outcome will be rebellion in the Bond markets.

i'm in the same position (long AUD/USD) and thinking about leaving it maybe even for a few days...

These markets are being driven by perception of Fed policy as much as real world economics.

The Fed is clearly controlled by Keynesians and sings only that tune.

Of interest was the overnite election in Wisconsin as that was much more then a single States internal affairs. The Nations two major political parties went all in. The outcome was that the 2010 outcome was maintained as the recall vote was unable to reverse.

In the long run the strength or weakness of paper currencies is ultimately determined by the electorate. The electorate puts into the government the people who determine who runs the Fed and who controls the purse strings in Congress.

For now the USD is down, but there still remains the possibility that the US electorate will change Washington in 2012.

Bernanke put lasted all of 16 hours.

Short again commodities. Wasn't cynical enough about Europe, so got caught up in the smoke screen that came with yesterdays Fed.

This must be some really big mess coming.

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http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=397

I am just wondering CLC, your usd/cad chart does not really look bearish, in fact it turned to bullish a few hundred pips ago.
So please let me know is this a typo?

Junk

My bias was still a little bit bearish because of double bottom not fully formed in W1. But in D1, yes, you are right, it looks like bullish. This is the reason I put "Bearish + Uncertain". Perhaps, I should just put "Uncertain".

http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=397

Personally, I am waiting to touch parity or close to it to short it.

Price is struggling to get and stay above the .9930 area, which has been significant support in the past, now seemingly turned resistance.

have a good weekend!

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http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=397