Linear Regression And Tsf Trading Strategy

1st, I would Like to say Thank You To Forexlion's for the basic strategy i have been using this strategy long enough and it's always on my chart. I am using this trading strategy to read and analysis how strong the trend powers is.

2nd, English is not my native language, so i am really sorry if i make mistake.

basic Of This Strategy:


TSF/ LR/T3 method is for trend analysis and trade detection, and it works on all time frames subject to the expertise level of the trader.

THE INDICATORS AND SETTINGS

Time Series Forecast - value 20
Linear Regression - value 20
T3 Triple Exponential Moving Average - value 13


-Distance between TSF / LR lines denotes strength of trend here.
Curve on TSF / LR denotes possible trend reversal.

HOW DO WE EXIT
o First thing to note is that the distance between TSF / LR lines will start increasing denoting weakness in trend
o Second thing to note is that the TSF / LR lines will start curving towards the T3 line, this denotes the exit.

For valid order entry consult all timeframes first.

GJ signals are more accurate on 1 hour charts, but for catching reversals you can use 15 minute charts.

I wrote This strategy and my Trade sample here

Templete download is here (the 2nd ones on the bottom)


EXAMPLE CHART

Below is the example chart for EURUSD on 30M, and the Rule for this Strategy:

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...2&d=1312651459

Its gonnna south or north..???

TSF Logic

Also known as the moving linear regression indicator or the regression oscillator, the Time Series Forecast indicator illustrates the statistical trend of a security’s price over a given time period. The trend is based on linear regression analysis. The Time Series Forecast plots the last point of multiple linear regression trendlines. The Time Series Forecast does not exhibit as much delay as a Moving Average when adjusting to price changes.

take a look the picture on the bottom:
So Do u still need arrow signal, sound allert, or change color indicator..???
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1313099052


http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1313099052

A trading system (TS) is a set of instructions which advise opening or closing trading positions based on the results of technical analysis. A trading system allows to exclude randomness in the trading process. Strict adherence to the system permits to rule out the emotional factor in the trade. For this reason, one must follow all recommendations of the system strictly even if for all that a potentially profitable position will not be opened.

The first thing you need to do when creating a trading system is to select time periods, or working timeframes, you will work with. A lot of restrictions in this respect come from the starting deposit and principles of capital management. Long-term periods are accompanied by lesser "financial noise" than shorter periods. Technical analysis performed for long term periods is more accurate and provides a lesser number of false incitements. Long-term periods are preferable in terms of successful working, but, however, they require a larger starting deposit. Shorter timeframes are characterized by greater noise, but, hence, the technical analysis is less accurate and gives out more false signals.

In cases of a modest starting deposit, it is not recommended to direct one’s attention in trading to long timeframes, it is better to try medium and short ones first. On longer time periods price fluctuations are not as evident, but, in fact, these fluctuations may be significant enough so as to "eat up" the entire starting deposit. Thus, the first restriction for the trading system is the starting deposit that determines the choice of the working timeframe. Please bear in mind that the settings of analytical instruments for each of the periods are to be selected individually. Besides, if performing analysis for short timeframes, the requirements to the analytical instruments have to be as exacting as possible.

The second task of the trading system is to define the entry point with the help of technical analysis. In any TS, irrespective of analytical instruments, the analysis must be started from a large timeframe and pass gradually to shorter ones. The first thing to be defined is the current market conditions as a whole.

For instance, if our trade is guided by the trend, we first determine the global trend. Even if a signal to buy comes at the time of a downward trend, a position should not be opened in such a trading system.

After that, the market conditions for periods of lesser order are analyzed. Eventually, the working timeframe is analyzed. If there appears a signal confirmed on long timeframes, one can open position immediately. However, to define the optimal entry point one can perform additional analysis on shorter timeframes.

The most important task of TS’s is to determine the exit point. Any system must provide not only the signal to open a position, but estimated levels of profit, as well. Order Take Profit should be placed next to this level. It is also necessary to identify the level of stop loss for the case when the market starts to move in an opposite direction. Place the Stop Loss order at this level. In other words, the TS must define exactly, up till which level the position should be held open in order to receive maximal profit, and define mechanisms for loss stopping in case of an unfavorable development of the market.

Technical analysts base their research on the following three axioms:

Market movement considers everything
This is the most important postulate of technical analysis. It is crucial to understand it in order to grasp rightly the procedures of analysis. The gist of it is that any factor that influences the price of securities, whether economic, political, or psychological, has already been taken into account and reflected in the price chart. In other words, every price change is accompanied by a change in external factors. The main inference of this premise is the necessity to follow closely the price movements and analyze them. By means of analyzing price charts and multiple other indicators, a technical analyst comes to the point that the market itself shows to her/him the trend it will most likely follow.
This premise is in conflict with fundamental analysis where the attention is primarily paid to the study of factors, and later on, after the analysis of the factors, to conclusions as to the market trends are made. Thus, if the demand is higher than the supply, a fundamental analyst will come to the conclusion that the price will grow. Technical analyst, however, makes her/his conclusions in the opposite sequence: since the price has grown, it means the demand is higher than the supply.

The prices move with the trend
This assumption is the basis for all methods of technical analysis, as a market that moves in accordance with trends can be analyzed, unlike a chaotic market. The postulate that the price movement is a result of a trend has two effects. The first one implies that the current trend will most likely continue and will not reverse itself, thus, excluding disorderly chaotic movement of the market. The second one implies that the current trend will go on until the opposite trend sets in.

The history repeats itself
Technical analysis and studies of market dynamics are closely related to the studies of human psychology. Thus, the graphical price models identified and classified within the last hundred years depict core characteristics of the psychological state of the market. First of all, they show the moods currently prevailing in the market, whether bullish or bearish. Since these models worked in the past, we have reasons to suppose that they will work in the future, for they are based on human psychology which remains almost unchaged over years. We can reword the last postulate — the story repeats itself — in a slightly different way: the key to understanding the future lies in the studies of the past.

Yesterday I told to My Friend (on the other thread)

I was riding 4H chart for EU and i am holding my short positions with some reasons (analysis), for sure i saw the LR and TSF are still hugging no curve at all on 4H, beside it Price could break T3 36(as the breakout area) let's see..can she goes to cross 72

US Session is getting Choppy lately they like to make correction on the smallest TF

Dear Friend,
Happy pip new forum page . I will follow you this page. You know yesterday we sell €/ $ is stil waiting.
Happy pip .
Best regards.
Bülent.

First target is done next..??, after hitting the the 1st target line price will make small retrace..come on babe

Thank Bulent..happy green piping, i'll try to make better this strategy, especially the target line so we gonna safe in our trade

Good Luck Bulent

Hi qqsamudra,

It is good idea to open your own thread, congratulation. I really like your charts. May you please post last template with all indicators?

Dear qqsamudra,
I saw eu/chf is sell 1.1382 am ı right ??? Please reply me is very important
Best Regards.
Bülent

It's Right remember the target area is the safety ones, i have my own risk and analysis I hit my 1st TP hits already, right now the price at 1.1292 so u got ++ already No Greed Bulent stay Cool safe the profit and u can re entry, 1,1265 will have a retrace.

Remember Price always have corrections, the bigger TF are fine but not on the smallest TF like 1M or 5M, so for maximum result always set the TP at the target area (1st-2nd target) and we can make re entry after they make correction.

I don't play on small TF like 5M to take the wave corrections, trade like that is faster , I do that just once in a while i don't like to spent whole of my time in front of my Pc

Today is friday budd last day, we'll have gap on saturday-sunday be careful trade safe

success

Ty Ls007,

later on I'll do that, some is my personal Indie. I hope i can make better this strategy

Hello,
I understant but ı have not my eur-chf buy position for this reason ı am looking to sell .
Regards.
I sent to mail your mail adress.
Bülent.

Got U Bulent

Goodluck

Hi, thanks and congrats on your new thread. I will be following, very interesting. I see your from Bandung, I was following another trader named Bandung on the Auction Market theory and market profile thread. He made an indi that you may be interested in looking at, ay-MarketProfileDWM.V1.31, I will post the indi if interested . It may do very well with your system.
I am looking forward to learning from you and your stratagey.

fishman356

Let me take a seat as well.

Have fun trading.

Thanks Sir, Yes I come from Bandung, i'll be very happy sir, How's
Maryland, I have been in Ann Arbor MI, and Dublin OH.

thank you so much.

You are the man.. MoreYummy Wlcm and Thank you here is some coffee for You..enjoy..



an ocean, begin from small rivers...like the trend.

Buzz Ur margin and take every single corrections on small TF it will be faster, becareful when we do that always control the higher TF as our main trend.

make 3 charts window at our Trade platform:

5M trade = 15M = 30M (Trend Controller)
15M trade = 30M - 1H (Trend Controller)
1H trade = H4 - D1 (Trend Controller)
H4 Trade = D1 - W1 (Trend Controller)
D1 Trade = W1 -Monthly (Trend Controller)

look at the tsf+lr conditions , the curve, hugging or not, Price Move under or upper T3 36 (as the breakout area/SR), etc, make some analysis, so we'll have decision to enter the market. very classic and an Old Theory, qqqq but it's working, the classic one is artistic, because for my self trade is an art, and the art is make some analysis. read read and read..
So You'll know the power of TSF and LR strategy to read the strenght of trends


Happy Weken Guys..

Success and safe trade

See U next..

NB:
Bullent read ur PV Messege

salam

GU To Night after Rally little bit

Screen Time, Screen time, Screen time, is what is needed, Let me know if you looked up the Acution Market Profile thread, just to give me your opinion. I live in Ocean City, Maryland, a resort town, about a 1/2 mile from the Alantic Ocean. and as you can see by my screen name I have done a lott of fishing.

With the free time that "which is limited " right now I will run the system on the backtester and try and get a better feel of the TSF and LR Strat.
and I would like to post a couple of charts to maybe ask some questions.
Thanks in Advance.

fishman356

I do that way Sir like i said it's classic, (like anything else), but so far it's working and really well, i never had floating minus on my trade. The different with the other is I make control and focus to TSF+LR conditions. the curve, hugging or not hugging, under/below the T3 36, 5M=>15M=>30M (like the picture on the top/previous post) it's mean I trade on 5M and 15M and 30M as my main trend controllers, i still got over than +100 just on 5M because i can see the higher TF, 15M and 30M. everything else on the chart just the helper, specially T3 36 (as the breakout area), simple and classical.

15M has a big curve, but not on 30M and H1 just begun, you are right "get a better feel" and we'll know what's the secret .

It's great; every single trader has own style, every single trader has own system, every single trader make own analysis. u may combine it, why not, as long as you can gain or increase your margin up, for sure consistency with the profits that's the important things, no matter what the trade formula is.

Find the best things for U sir


success for You

Good Luck

Regards
qqsamudra
So I made my chart like the picture on the bottom:

Any Idea with GU by viewing this strategy on H4..???

Hi I will call you qq for short , hope you don't mind. As per your pic of GU its a little hard to tell, by your h4 pic, so I came down to h1 tf and see that the t3=36 is being crossed suggesting a trend reversal also with the double top formation. There may be a small retractment before taking the short. And I correct? Here is my pics with the Market-Profile indi, it helps me to see s/r , plus I have another pivot indi on the chart.





fishman356

let me know if I am "wrong"