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Trading Price Pivots

  • #541
  • Aug 11, 2011 11:42am Aug 11, 2011 11:42am
exit d1-h1....

Chantalb I hope to continue learning from your posts ... I'm glad to see you again
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  • #542
  • Aug 13, 2011 7:49am Aug 13, 2011 7:49am
Quoting shandy
Yes, I get the piece about entering on a retrace on the 1hr once the fractal has appeared on the d1. What I'm still not clear on is when a d1 fractal is "valid", and when it isn't. The original post stated they must be at "Price Pivots" e.g 1.1000, 1.1500 etc, yet later charts don't seem to have these areas marked, or there is no reference to them. Also, the concept of trading with the trend was introduced (using 200 MA as guide I think), but then later it seems that any / all fractals are valid.

So from what I've seen on the charts, it's...
Price pivots do not necessarily have to be located in the vicinity of 1000 or 500 numbers, however when they are and once we see a clear rejection off of these numbers our odds of having a successful trade are increased. Big numbers like that typically give two scenarios, the first is a rejection and the second is a breakdown/breakout. Price will normally always go back and test the big number after it breaks it as in the second scenario. What I tend to do is wait until I get that retest with a structured PP. Not all PP are made equal and this is where you have to assess it and decide if it is a valid one or not… Now suppose I get a pivot high off a round number and then the confirmation candle is a bullish one would I take that?... of course not… simply because a pivot high requires bearish PA and a pivot low a bullish PA. So what I like to see in the case of a pivot high for instance is weakness on the PP candle followed by more weakness on the confirmation candle and vice versa for a pivot low. Waiting for the trigger on the retracements in shorter tfs is there for a reason, price action there will always tell you if it wants to go through with the move or not.
I had explained the 200 MA issue to IB in previous posts, please look them up. The MA is there so that I am extra cautious when taking a countertrend trade… that’s all… you can choose to not trade short when let’s say price is above it, it is up to you.
Concerning UC in Jan/Feb, parity is the mother of big numbers I try to avoid all trades around parity. There are so many pairs out there, don’t get stuck to one, it can break you. One last thing, when price is above a major S & R line ( that can also be a big number area like in the chart) wait for price to come back to the line and buy, assume it will hold cause it generally does. Same goes for once below it.
The chart shows the yellow areas up from par, red is the break and magenta are the retests down…
Cheers,
CB
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  • #543
  • Aug 13, 2011 8:44am Aug 13, 2011 8:44am
Quoting shandy
So in this previous example you had entered the USDCAD long around the 28th July, which was doing very well. But prior to this, in the white circle on my chart there were 2 previous d1 fractals, one long then one short, but I see no reference to these in any postings. Both look like they would have been stopped out, and I would say that the short would have been the preferable direction at that point anyway, as the prevailing trend was down (and was at the 0.95000 PP)?

Did you take either of these trades?
The pivot low on the 21st of July was followed by a bull candle that engulfed it. However if you look closer at the wick of that candle on the 22nd it was strongly rejected. Pivot high on 22 was followed by a bullish confirmation candle, to me that is a no trade especially that it was also a Sunday bar. Shorting a currency at an area of demand is very dangerous, please refer to chart below. By the way I suggest you get other time zone charts along with the one of your broker. I have GMT and NY charts that I refer to daily and upon which I make my decisions.
Supply and demand is what I will cover next.
Hope this helps,
CB
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  • #544
  • Aug 13, 2011 11:06am Aug 13, 2011 11:06am
Quoting porfirio
exit d1-h1....

Chantalb I hope to continue learning from your posts ... I'm glad to see you again
Great Job my friend, I think I will be the one to learn from you one of these days
  • #545
  • Edited 11:55am Aug 13, 2011 11:41am | Edited 11:55am
What fractals do is show me areas of supply (resistance) and demand (support). The higher the time frame the stronger the zones.
On the charts, magenta is for W1, blue is for tested daily zones, green is for untested D1 zones, orange is D1 breached supply, and grey are 4hr demand zones… On the 1h lime, turquoise and turquoise/bluish green are for hourly S&D. Yellow circles on the second chart represent tested supply and lime circles tested demand…
There are many more zones that can be added, for the sake of not cluttering the chart up further I will stick to these. Knowing where supply and demand zones lie makes all the difference to the outcome of one’s trades. I don’t take a pivot low (aka long position) into supply or a pivot high (aka short) into demand, I wait for price to either clear the zone and give me a pivot low above supply or to get rejected from the zone with bearish PA in this example.
On this I wish you a good weekend, and please take the time to research further topics such as candle structures (individual and group), price in linear form, supply and demand, trend lines, channels (and their mids), price pivots etc…
CB
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  • #546
  • Aug 13, 2011 11:47am Aug 13, 2011 11:47am
4h and 1h charts with their respective S&Ds in addition to the higher tf S&Ds
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  • #547
  • Edited 5:57pm Aug 16, 2011 3:26pm | Edited 5:57pm
On the daily we have confluence of a 500 number, 50% fib (w1 PP) and a demand turned supply with a potential pivot high. Waiting on the close to see some more bearishness. The 4h shows my view more clearly… Let’s see if it will fall…

Edit: Almost 3 hours later, not too pleased with the PA, was waiting for a strong dip on smaller tfs... will skip... plus looking at the bounce on the weekly doesnt look good for a down move... charts to follow
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  • #548
  • Aug 16, 2011 6:09pm Aug 16, 2011 6:09pm
1) Line chart Trend line and 2) bounce TL & Demand
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  • #549
  • Aug 23, 2011 6:00am Aug 23, 2011 6:00am
Quoting Chantalb
1) Line chart Trend line and 2) bounce TL & Demand
Very interesting, I will read it from the beginning, so I can get into it.

mla
"The Heart is the hub of all dances; go there and chill out"
  • #550
  • Aug 23, 2011 9:05am Aug 23, 2011 9:05am
Quoting porfirio
just practice practice practice ....

I think I will stop publishing ... this seems a monologue of my ego ... and gives me a little shame.
hey buddy, keep it up! You gave me tremendous inspiration.

leelar
  • #551
  • Aug 23, 2011 9:06am Aug 23, 2011 9:06am
Quoting Chantalb
1) Line chart Trend line and 2) bounce TL & Demand
hi Chantal, great job, keep it rolling man.
  • #552
  • Aug 29, 2011 6:23am Aug 29, 2011 6:23am
Hi leelar.. I have been out a few days
d1 - m30 (or h1)
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  • #553
  • Aug 31, 2011 2:29am Aug 31, 2011 2:29am
TSL GBP
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  • #554
  • Aug 31, 2011 8:49am Aug 31, 2011 8:49am
Chantalb, thank you for making a clear thread where we can discuss price pivots. I've been applying the scaled down version of your method on the USD/CHF.

Here is how my chart looks: I set grid lines every 62 pips and wait to see how the general trend is going for the day. I use the D1 TF to give me a sense of what I should be looking for. Yesterday confirmed a down pivot, so I waited for a down pivot on the H1/M30 chart to form and jumped in. I set a SL at the high of the last pivot and let it ride until I get a reverse pivot. I close out the trade and wait for a new pivot in the general direction. If the trend is strong I will double up to squeeze out a few more pips.


(On the Up pivot at 0.81220 I went down to the M15 and saw a down pivot form, I was able to pull 70 pips from the move.)
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  • #555
  • Aug 31, 2011 8:57am Aug 31, 2011 8:57am
good to see you back porfirio.
  • #556
  • Sep 1, 2011 3:19am Sep 1, 2011 3:19am
GBP-CHF... D1-M30(or h1)

I can not wait for the fib zone (38 ... 61 ... 50 ..) because this bouncing around the 100 ema .. so sold
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  • #557
  • Sep 1, 2011 5:22am Sep 1, 2011 5:22am
when considering where to put the SL ... I've noticed that
technically do not really like the entry and made

so I decided to put the SL at the point of entry
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  • #558
  • Sep 2, 2011 4:37am Sep 2, 2011 4:37am
I had an interesting Price Pivot pattern show up last night during my trading. The same bar formed both a Pivot Up and and Pivot Down.

What do you guys make of such a pattern and how would you interpret / trade it?

(I'll try to post a chart later)
  • #559
  • Sep 2, 2011 9:08am Sep 2, 2011 9:08am
August is about the worst month to trade. I've had a rough one... my largest and main account is down by app 7%... Yeah well, I'll tend to my wounds and move on.

@Porfirio... glad you still contributing, my best wishes out to you.

@Bongabonga... When a pattern like that appears I usually skip it cause price tends to stay stuck in the range of that candle for a while without a clear direction. It also implies most of the time a continuation of the previous trend.

Good weekend,
CB
  • #560
  • Sep 3, 2011 6:39am Sep 3, 2011 6:39am
I'm glad to see you Chantalb ... you do not get discouraged because the strategy is very good... the best
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