(binned per thread starter’s request) GEfx Trading Journal

I have not posted any trades here in a while, so here are my two trades from this morning, one on the E/$ and one on the GBP/$.

Been a while since I last posted a trade here. I have a 1/2 position in on the E/$ and waiting to see if I can build on it. Here is the chart:

Here is the latest on the trade. Protecting 18 pips and will enter another 1/2 position at about 1.3364. Worst case, I'll make about 6 pips on this retracement. Targeting the -.618 fib above 1.3410.

Quick post here regarding the trade. One of the things I like to look for is if the PA is showing some respect for the fibs I place on my charts. This does not mean that the market will fly up from here, just that the fibs are approximately measuring the PA.

OK, second trade in is now as the market hits that .618.

I'm up 11 pips on trade 2, so moving stop to 7 pips. Holding firm on trade 1.

Good safe trading on a day when anything can happen. Well done Ray.

OK that is -5 pips on trade 2, trade 1 +20. Wating

Hi Ray, yep trying to be a little more careful today/this week. Good trading!

Back in the E/$ now at 1.3368.

Edit: this trade is a full position. Am now up 20 pips to 1.3388, protecting 1.3356.

Moved stop to b/e, and now targeting 1.3436

Square at 1.3378

OK, the market has returned to the 1.3330 level, the breach of which prompted my trade 1. I my mind this move adds some strength to the 1.3330 level, and the 1.3400 level has become an inter-day top worth keeping an eye on in later trading.

i suppose i will stop lurking lol

since you invited me to discuss ideas, remember i told you i learned from you, i have been caught.


i was asking myself why?

why do the tools u use work, and i ran some experiments, here is what i think, prove me wrong if you so please.

Trend lines= the seem to act as momentum time analysis, if you are familiar with linear regression, i believe the same concept applies, instead linear regression will try to find the slope of the b1 and the b0 to project the moving average.

without so much headache you can use a trend line on the moving average and project it out to the time of your choosing, you see just like a trend line, in essence my theory is they measure projected unchanged speed, momentum, and time of the move if all things remain constant....which they don't of course as your are incredibly good at price action analysis.

so visually helps you spot the change in these variables and at which point you re assess the current market condition.

now fibs i thought were pretty ludicrous the concept of phi, into a fore casting model, but then i began to realize that i was mistaken.

i believe most traders use fibs not to actually predict, in what seems to be an esoteric way, but to spot strength.
strength of retrace, % of impulse corrected, which cues you in on possible continuation or validity of the break out.


(as you have notice i always want to find the rationale for everything to understand the concept and idea behind it, there is always a REASON for everything and A REASON why everything works)

candles are really important and what you pointed out 100% in my opinion, people chicken out on the retrace of the candle itself, as a noobie i would to.

then i began to look at candles as purely Technical Analysis tool, to give me ideas on range, momentum, displacement, and reference point.

if you take any candle and you look at the formation before it, there are many clues you can derive as it relates to the forming candle.

1= usual range vs current range. how much "fuel" there is left on the current candle, and increase in volatility, volume, etc

2- average high range= if a candle retraces as you put it on average what is the statistical probabilities that the current candle retrace is actually not a retrace but a change in order prevalence
same with the average low.

3 probability factor, most likely the candle will close above or below open, and usually correlates to the average displacement.
but i find it helps mitigating risk, and getting in at a good entrance point. for example if the average low is 13 pips on the hourly fiber candles, then if you are looking at the five minute chart you see, in price action analysis price finding support at or lower than 13 pips from hourly open, and with current bullish outlook, you would know that entering here would be a good entrance point, if in fact you are right.
1 if you are wrong you would recognize this quickly,
2 if you are right you are probably looking at a good possibility of closing or breaking the previous candle's high this candle taking average range (23 pips for the fiber) into account.

i am not implying you should change your trading style as it seems to be successful i am just sharing some analysis i have done

Hi Red, sorry it's taken so long to reply to your posts. First, I should tell you that the charts I post here are the naked version of the charts I trade. I will post an example of one of those charts in a minute. As for trend lines and fibs, I use them to model what the market is doing/may do as PA develops. I use S/R lines in much the same way. Based on my studies of what large institutions do and on my trading experience, I use these short-term trading models until they no longer model what is going on in the market, or until I hit my targets. If and when TA no longer models what the charts are presenting, I step out until I get another modeling setup. So for me, I try to do TA in much the same way as bankers (using their tools and techniques), then I try to think like a banker when trading. It all seems to work pretty well during the trading day, and when it stops working, I assume the bankers are getting ready for something else, and that is the signal to step aside.


The following is a sample of the charts I use. It is a 1H chart that I worled up this morning, and it contains a significant amount of TA and technical indicators that require many months to learn how to use. In addition, I have two other chart grouping that I use that contain much more information of market activities. There are ways to use them for trending, trading, and turning markets, and have lots of tools inbedded in them. This is not a commercial for the chart company and I am not selling anything. I also have the naked charts available that I refer to throughout the day, which is where I can get away from all the TA stuff and practice what fti teaches.



I should also mention that I have several other trades that I do that are not part of this journal (ie, rejections of previous S/R, etc.)

Interesting Chart

Hi auxesis, I agree. Been using this charting system for about 5 years now.

Have a great Christmas and I hope the weather is OK is nicer this year.

oh i see.


so you have experience as a proprietary trader then?