the best indicator is trader's knowledge , experience and dicipline.
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Aug 2006 | 11,977 Posts
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
Martingale, Anti-martingale, and Compounding 40 replies
Martingale, Reverse Martingale, Modified Martingale, Maths 1 reply
Martingale Calculation EA (also reverse martingale) 3 replies
How to change this Martingale to Reverse Martingale ? 3 replies
Martingale vs. Non Martingale (Simplified RoR vs Profit) 1 reply
DislikedMain problem with progression is that you are mounting your losses without mounting your profit. Eventually sooner or later you end up risking 100% of your money to gain 1% profit. It has to not only ruin your wallet but your mental health as well.Ignored
DislikedWhat you described sound like an attempt to incorporate actual trading knowledge and experience and with it some reason and common sense into trading using martingale. And it of course has a lot of merit.Ignored
QuoteDislikedProblem with it for me is that I wouldn't know how to make a simulation of that. It's very easy to make a simulation of martingale for roulette and show any potential gambler how stupid of him to think it gives him any edge over the house.
But if you are a trader that already have an edge over the market and can rip some pips it's not so trivial to find out how to combine it with progression and simulate.
QuoteDislikedThe stuff I was doing when playing with it and making some probability calculations was actually pretty basic but unfortunately I haven't got time now to go into it - I am sitting on suitcases getting ready to leave for my vacation. I'm really sorry.
The topic is quite interesting though so if you are willing to discuss it further I will be back in a week and we can continue then.
Dislikedas previously mentioned, trading doesn't have defined start and end points. a trader or their account defines this. taking the obvious example of risk versus reward, you can risk 1 unit with the 'hope' of gaining greater than 1 unit... and further to that you can trail a stoploss until you finally get taken out for some degree of profit if the market moved in your favor.
i absolutely hate the idea of doing this, but if a trader makes progressive bets then they have not only a chance of breaking even, they have the opportunity of hitting a black...Ignored
DislikedMartingale has one major problem that cannot be solved. What ever you set it at it will have a limited range it can cover. For example if you have 7 levels your account can handle and the reentry is 100 pips, if the market moves over 800 against you and stays that way then you are screwed. No matter where you set your range sooner or later the market will exceed it. So no matter how you set a martingale system up it will have a limited range and sooner or later the market will beat that range. That is why they fail. The only way you can make one...Ignored
DislikedArghh, I am really sorry to be replying so intermittently. I've got kids all over me at home all the time and at work I'm taking a scrum training now, so I hardly have a chance to sit at my workstation.
You are of course course absolutely right. And the kind of stuff you wrote about is exactly what leaves me clueless as to how to even begin to calculate progression odds for forex transactions.
It is all so discretionary. How can one put it into mathematic formulae?
1. Undefined and fluid risk reward ratio is one thing.
2. Still another thing is...Ignored
DislikedHi again,
I'd like to point out yet another issue in the topic of martingale (and all other progression types for that matter).
You must remember that I am a newbie on forex s you have to bear with me if I am ignorant of some basic stuff.
From what you wrote I understood that traders use the traders tend to trade against the general market trend while using martingale in a hope that the market will eventually reverse because "it always does" and a single reversal move is enough to erase the entire martingale pyramid and bing the long awaited...Ignored
Disliked{quote} the first part of your post is talking about grid trading. that's one place that martingale is used to stay afloat until the inevitable bad run where price moves too far in one direction if the grid is anti-trend trading, or price moves in a range for too long if the grid is breakout trading. it doesn't have to be about grid trading. i would imagine most people don't look at the market as simply a grid. they try to find some pattern/signal to either buy, sell, or perhaps even stay out for some time. this doesn't have to be a grid and can...Ignored