VSA with Clifton

Potential short-term weakness on eu. Look like we have a fake breakout to the upside. Let's see.

The highest volume of the day on that shakeout, and the higher bar close to follow confirms it..but let me clarify something.

I don't usually jump in off a shakeout like that. This was a particular situation I have seen before. As I was saying over the weekend (100 pips ago) things were looking extremely bullish. Friday just sort of ended in the middle of a healthy bull run.

In the time between market open and London, I figured it was going to try to get traders on the wrong side. Activity is low and this is easy to do..a shakeout actually did enter my mind as a possibility. Getting closer to London open there was nothing..then the shakeout. It was short lived as demand showed up big time. I figured this is "it", but only enough confidence to put on half my normal risk.

So, experience played a part. This is why I think it's best to use live examples as they come up.

Shakeouts are a sudden manipulation that can do 3 things. 1. Hit your stop 2. get you on the wrong side (I'm sure some emotional traders shorted..probably had some indies showing it coming out of "over bought" lol). 3. Give smart money a shot to get in more position at a better price.

Glad you're enjoying the thread guys, good to see you duyk20. Yep, that supply cannot be ignored. Could be a recipe for a ranging day. Obviously I'm glad this is a free trade at this point. I don't think I'll be taking another one today.

Booo, two thumbs down for supply lol. 1.44 had a decent amount. Definitely a wait and see situation now.

Oh yea, shortie worked out well

Nice one, can't argue with profit. I was not willing to short due to what was to my left, demand/accumulation.

Now we see that demand showing up again down here, and I am still bullish..however I wouldn't enter a trade that would have to break the top 1.44 supply to justify entry. Either I'm buying low, considering that supply may hold again, or waiting for price to get above.

I just took a look at where markets ended up today.

I only trade fx but I'm going to check the charts to see if SM is buying at these lows, or heading for those underground bunkers.

My chart atm.

This is why using live examples is best, and frankly more exciting. Maybe some were following this potential setup.

I was very close to entering my usual push/no supply for the long, but the ns was not confirmed. It's only a "potential" no supply until there is a candle close above the ns high.

My supply line has now been moved up to that high. The understanding behind the supply line is..the price at which supply overcomes demand, or the price at which sellers are willing to sell in large enough amounts to stop an up move.

I look for that to be removed with demand in the background. Simple enough.

I'm sort of glad it didn't confirm, I hate entering this time of day.

Could it be that EURUSD is ongoing a distribution phase ?

This week has been a range, with higher volume at the lows then highs. That's the simple definition of accumulation for me. You would think with the Euro woes it would have dropped, but today is another example of smart money holding it up.

Look at the 1 hr right now for example. A new low for the week was just made (12:30 GMT), which hit stopping volume/demand, and the result is a quick 140 pips up.

Tight trading range on EU, breakout expected soon

Friday, ns entry on 5 min after the green line. Profit now taken 1.4450.
Accumulation/markup as predicted.

Don't mean to intrude in this thread but here was how i see it when i took the trade today. I show it using futures instead as i prefer to use real as oppose to tick volume that futures provides.

After the morning gap up i notice that price stays above for most part of the session. I mark my session levels here to see how price react to Asia session range. I tend to look for spring or test off these levels & price reaction to it.

Eventually we got a spring of that level & also the shakeout tested on the gap high. Which is a good indication. Price reverted back up into asia session range & then follows by a test. We then see a vertical up-move.

Now we have a potential pullback test, typical of such strong moves till we hit momentum divergence, probably by 4500 in the spot price.

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By no means, you intrude the thread, you've got excellent analysis, one of its pure form of wyckoff schematics which not many here uses. I hope you visit more often

Phase: Markup after a lengthy accumulation. Longs only until large supply is found.

Strategy: Buy dips.

Entry: High demand/low supply revealed on 5 min.

As Buckwheat says: "It's ad simple ad dat." Actually it was Eddie Murphy as Buckwheat lol.

..and good stuff Evak, thanks.

Here's what I'm hoping to see. Low volume on the way down and a quick pop below 1.44 that hits higher volume demand and bounces.

Good stuff here mate

Tks, i try to post some e.g base on those subset of wyckoff schematics when i can. I will post one shortly.....

Here is the setup via the wyckoff wave accumulation pattern. After the PS (Preliminary support) we have a Selling Climax (SC). Price usually rally strongly from the point of climax to this reaction high, the Auto-rally point (AR).

As price dip it should look to be tested with a basic test (Toms calls it mini-shakeout or a form of terminal test). This is a good point of entry which see price pushing pass AR in this case, sometimes AR can be tested later as it acting as support of this upmove.

I also mark the high volume trigger level as an alternative for those who only trade those triggers or add position to it.

Illustration using 6E chart on 3min TF, the climax level is the 4400 level which was mark by Clifton earlier.
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