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vsa with Malcolm

  • #21,421
  • Aug 9, 2011 11:21am Aug 9, 2011 11:21am
Quoting Sonofsin5
A lot of "retail money" has gone into gold in the last week. The high volume is strong holders selling it to weak holders above 1750 only to buy it back from them sub 1700 in a few days time. This is the game we play in.
Well said!!

Sonic
  • #21,422
  • Aug 9, 2011 12:34pm Aug 9, 2011 12:34pm
Hello Friends and VSA fans.

The below USDCAD daily chart shows what seems to be a potential up thrust, that is if rate closes on the lows or lower than the present bar. This is preceded by what I think is a buy climax bar. What does the reader think? Could UC be setting up for a short sale?

Then in the daily Gold $XAU chart further down, is also seen a potential upthrust after buy climax.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad 1d 8-9-11 upthrust.gif Size: 18 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gold 1d 8-9-11 upthrust.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #21,423
  • Aug 9, 2011 12:46pm Aug 9, 2011 12:46pm
Quoting rbumbalough
Hello Friends and VSA fans.

The below USDCAD daily chart shows what seems to be a potential up thrust, that is if rate closes on the lows or lower than the present bar. This is preceded by what I think is a buy climax bar. What does the reader think? Could UC be setting up for a short sale?
Could be but the problem is the volume is very very high. When volume is this high it will need to be tested as there could be hidden buying in the bar. Professional money will not want to drop price much until at least the mid range of that bar is retested. Ucad is very linked to the price of crude and has a inverse relationship. The fact that price stalled directly at 1.0009 tells me they poked through for retail stops and could now be suckering traders into shorts. At any rate price has gone up fast and furious and will need a retrace/breather but I would not be shorting heavy until low volume testing occurs.
  • #21,424
  • Aug 9, 2011 1:55pm Aug 9, 2011 1:55pm
Quoting Sonofsin5
Could be but the problem is the volume is very very high. When volume is this high it will need to be tested as there could be hidden buying in the bar. Professional money will not want to drop price much until at least the mid range of that bar is retested. Ucad is very linked to the price of crude and has a inverse relationship. The fact that price stalled directly at 1.0009 tells me they poked through for retail stops and could now be suckering traders into shorts. At any rate price has gone up fast and furious and will need a retrace/breather...
Hello Sonofsin5; Those are good points. I appreciate your insights and wish you success.
  • #21,425
  • Aug 10, 2011 5:57pm Aug 10, 2011 5:57pm
end last week we saw some massive volume in audusd, being such a low it must have been buying, then today vol is even lower, but still we don't see a rally up, i am very new to VSA but i really believe this is the way to take the mystery man out of my head when it comes to trading, whats Malcolm's predictions now i wonder
  • #21,426
  • Aug 10, 2011 7:29pm Aug 10, 2011 7:29pm
Quoting kjetil
end last week we saw some massive volume in audusd, being such a low it must have been buying, then today vol is even lower, but still we don't see a rally up, i am very new to VSA but i really believe this is the way to take the mystery man out of my head when it comes to trading, whats Malcolm's predictions now i wonder
Low volume is lack of professional activity. In situations like this don't fight the trend unless you see Yow Ming followed by testing.
  • #21,427
  • Edited 11:10pm Aug 10, 2011 10:47pm | Edited 11:10pm
though i saw yow ming last week several times but wonder where he went, maybe he was stopped out, i read your comments rbumbalugh and it was an eyeopener, if buying is hidden in high vol on gold and usdcad then i assume selling could be hidden in high volume audusd???
  • #21,428
  • Edited 12:51am Aug 11, 2011 12:33am | Edited 12:51am
Looks like usd/chf is being accumulated. After the ETF and the upthrust you would expect price to fall, especially since we are in a down trend. CHF is correlated to gold, and gold is EXTREMELY overbought, so if we were to see a drop in gold then I would expect USD/CHF to go up.

TW - "If there is effort without result then the opposite must be true"
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #21,429
  • Aug 11, 2011 4:39am Aug 11, 2011 4:39am
Bullish short-term view on USD/CHF.

1) Possible selling climax
2) NS bar
3) Some weakness but without serious reaction. It also can be supply is swamping demand,
4) Test and good reason to think about buy order...
5) Possible supply swamping demand


Looking for test near 0.7425 level.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu m60 11.08.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #21,430
  • Aug 11, 2011 8:07am Aug 11, 2011 8:07am
Quoting kjetil
though i saw yow ming last week several times but wonder where he went, maybe he was stopped out, i read your comments rbumbalugh and it was an eyeopener, if buying is hidden in high vol on gold and usdcad then i assume selling could be hidden in high volume audusd???
Good Morning Kjetil: I hope you are feeling well and that your family is prospering. Your observation conforms to my, albeit superficial, understanding of VSA principles. Some reader will be able to cite Tom Williams on this point. Anytime very high volume or in the case of forex, high tick activity, is present, then large well capitalized trading entities are at work. Its matters little who these are because their modus operandi must be in compliance with the way markets work. In forex, as you are probably aware, the trade action is a zero sum gain; for someone to make money somebody else must lose it. Thus high TA bars conceal the positioning and to some extent the intents of the dominant market participants who strive to mislead and deceive smaller less well capitalized traders so as to exploit their natural instincts to avoid loses by hanging on to unprofitable trades too long and to close out profitable trades too soon.

The correlation issues between asset classes is generally not part of VSA. However, large well capitalized trading entities do have bias for a preferred market direction based on prevailing economic conditions. Although such entities will not hesitate to trade counter to any underlying bias if conditions indicate an advantage towards reaping short term profits. A recent example would be the trade action in AudJpy last night in the half hour after the lower than expected Australian employment figures. The PBOC spiked AJ down hard and then sling shot it back up to run lesser trader's stops in a rapid wash and rinse. (Sorry no chart.)

Thank you for communicating with me. I wish the readers best regards for big and consistent profits.
  • #21,431
  • Aug 11, 2011 8:55am Aug 11, 2011 8:55am
Quoting V_2008
Bullish short-term view on USD/CHF.

1) Possible selling climax
2) NS bar
3) Some weakness but without serious reaction. It also can be supply is swamping demand,
4) Test and good reason to think about buy order...
5) Possible supply swamping demand


Looking for test near 0.7425 level.
There was a test of previous weakness/supply (red arrow) Now we are going higher. Last high vol bars can be swamping demand.
Didn't enter on a test, because vol was to high for me, but I think for forex it's reliable.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu m60 11.08 3.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #21,432
  • Aug 12, 2011 8:10am Aug 12, 2011 8:10am
Quoting Sonofsin5
A lot of "retail money" has gone into gold in the last week. The high volume is strong holders selling it to weak holders above 1750 only to buy it back from them sub 1700 in a few days time. This is the game we play in.
so wicks are bag holders and real body are the bb's?
  • #21,433
  • Aug 12, 2011 9:27am Aug 12, 2011 9:27am
Quoting lipton
so wicks are bag holders and real body are the bb's?
ummm??
  • #21,434
  • Aug 12, 2011 10:45am Aug 12, 2011 10:45am
Quoting lipton
so wicks are bag holders and real body are the bb's?
what do u mean by "bb" and "bag holders"?

r u trying to say "bag holding"?
  • #21,435
  • Aug 12, 2011 1:03pm Aug 12, 2011 1:03pm
what i was trying to say was that the longer wicks are retail buying and the close is where the big boys are buying, in general.
  • #21,436
  • Aug 12, 2011 4:46pm Aug 12, 2011 4:46pm
Quoting Sonofsin5
Low volume is lack of professional activity. In situations like this don't fight the trend unless you see Yow Ming followed by testing.
I remain committed to Toms works in its purest form. I am concerned for future students of VSA who will have to cope with words like "Yow Ming" and other slang that has crept in to these posts, no apologies Gavin, I hate other peoples egos putting their stamp on someone Else's master work. Please try and keep it "clean" and true to Toms works..Wishing you all good trading and prosperous results.
Apologies to Sonofsin5, thank you, your post gave me the opportunity, this is not a personal attack. You are free to say what you like.
  • #21,437
  • Aug 13, 2011 4:56am Aug 13, 2011 4:56am
Quoting lipton
what i was trying to say was that the longer wicks are retail buying and the close is where the big boys are buying, in general.
What makes you think that?
  • #21,438
  • Aug 13, 2011 6:46am Aug 13, 2011 6:46am
if the bb's thought 1750 was the price, gold would have close @ 1750 with volume.
  • #21,439
  • Aug 13, 2011 10:13am Aug 13, 2011 10:13am
Quoting lipton
what i was trying to say was that the longer wicks are retail buying and the close is where the big boys are buying, in general.
i personally would not assume that, because the close on M15 may not be the same close as H1, so we cannot assume that the bb are only active at the close of a candle.
  • #21,440
  • Aug 13, 2011 11:08am Aug 13, 2011 11:08am
Quoting lipton
if the bb's thought 1750 was the price, gold would have close @ 1750 with volume.
This assumption is not correct. The closing price on a bar is irrespective of the high/low price of that bar.
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