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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #26,861
  • Aug 4, 2011 6:10am Aug 4, 2011 6:10am
Quoting auxesis
Too funny, reminds me of something
LOL! I like this one. Don't mess with the apes!

Inserted Video
  • #26,862
  • Aug 4, 2011 6:14am Aug 4, 2011 6:14am
How to make the market flat or at least predictable or at least logical.. hmm...

* CB presconferences - forbidded

* Major News agencies - shot down

* All presidents and prime ministers - on a vacation at unknown place, separated, no phones, communications, whatsoever

* Whisky, free for all brokers and traders

* Keep this for at least a month



Plamen
Bah...
  • #26,863
  • Aug 4, 2011 6:18am Aug 4, 2011 6:18am
Quoting plamendp
How to make the market flat or at least predictable or at least logical.. hmm...

* CB presconferences - forbidded

* Major News agencies - shot down

* All presidents and prime ministers - on a vacation at unknown place, separated, no phones, communications, whatsoever

* Whisky, free for all brokers and traders

* Keep this for at least a month



Plamen

  • #26,864
  • Aug 4, 2011 6:29am Aug 4, 2011 6:29am
Trichet just blew markets apart with his interview... Bond buying is not QE he claims assuming markets participants are all idiots, I guess... And all that while the ECB is buying Italian and Portugese bonds, i.e. shooting two rabbits with one bulet...which is at least the 2nd confirmed CB intervention in open markets for the past 24 hours... This whole Keynesian BS is really becoming ridiculous.
  • #26,865
  • Aug 4, 2011 6:35am Aug 4, 2011 6:35am
Quoting fti
"There's a great truth on this planet:
whoever you are or whatever you do,
when you desire something with will,
this is because this wish was born in the Universe's soul.
That thing represents your mission on the Earth.
And when you desire something,
all the Universe conspires so that you realize your wish."

So wish carefully.
You may just get what you wish for.
if your wishes are in conflict.
That you get too.
Chief,

You talking about

"THE SECRET"

Inserted Video



V
  • #26,866
  • Aug 4, 2011 7:05am Aug 4, 2011 7:05am
Quoting indianguyinny24
Chief,

You talking about

"THE SECRET"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MulLAfffQoQ


V
The law of attraction. Like attracts like.
  • #26,867
  • Edited 7:46am Aug 4, 2011 7:15am | Edited 7:46am
No secrets.

This forex retail markets are rigged.
they call 5% margining for forex accounts
Forex 12 monthly historical volatility is 10/20 %
second to second volatility, I measuring exceeds 100% in seconds often.
based on this measurements,so in the end all accounts will be dead.
Its not all at the same time. Only ultimately all will be dead.
Irregardless of ability.

I know how interbank sweep stops, but thinking without stops they cannot sweep.
Unfortunately every leverage account, has stop order.
Is known as buyin point.
And there is no way any trader can fund the accounts fast enough., because it take at least 5 working days TT funds to account.
So there is no way fund fully cash backed trades. Unless you trade for icecream with big deposits. But they take 2% per currency leg makes 4% on depo haircut. For big cash outlays this negative interest big time.
So all will be victims.
If you scalp them they either show you prices selectively or they refuse your account.
This is very obvious already.
Forex retail is a scam.
Cannot trade retail.

Only cash at bank. BUT bank now become very selective and forcing big ticket trades only.
Now citi is offering me write them options instead of spot trades.
So this is sign forex trading will be a dead thing soon.
The very fact that interbank now not take customers watch orders, is quite evident that instead market making, they allow broker swing stops on small tickets. So charts reflect order book instead of markets.
In retail forex all your account stops are showing in a gaint book.
I suspect some syndicates are making market, but thats so stealth mode probably govts are unaware.

One experiment of mine was to check out the citi links.
There is a broker CitiFX pro, is part of citi group.
But the bank not recognise itfor funding, and is treated as a separate entity.
I still trying ponder why????
And all at citi is mum on this subject.

Is probably same for deutsche, but i not experiment them yet.
regards
  • #26,868
  • Aug 4, 2011 7:22am Aug 4, 2011 7:22am
Quoting fti
No secrets.

This forex retail markets are rigged.
they call 5% margining for forex accounts
Forex 12 monthly historical volatility is 10/20 %
they do volatility up to 100% in seconds
so in the end all accounts will be dead.
Its not all at the same time. Only ultimately all will be dead.
Irregardless of ability.
If you scalp them they either show you prices selectively or they refuse your account.
This is very obvious already.
Forex retail is a scam.
Cannot trade retail.
Only cash at bank.


regards

Does BOJ know what they are doing....

gone 125 pips gain already...

have the speculator became bigger then CB???

amazing.....

seems they effectiveness is ....

V

PS: i am slight long at 79.20 with only scout....no worry about it all..... but want to understand the underline tone...
  • #26,869
  • Aug 4, 2011 7:40am Aug 4, 2011 7:40am
Quoting indianguyinny24
Does BOJ know what they are doing....

gone 125 pips gain already...

have the speculator became bigger then CB???

amazing.....

seems they effectiveness is ....

V

PS: i am slight long at 79.20 with only scout....no worry about it all..... but want to understand the underline tone...
Hey Vic,

I think they have set their target to protect the 77 area and since it's not an exact science they pushed higher and wait to see if it's a retrace that would follow or a new spec attack. Just a thought.

S
  • #26,870
  • Edited 8:24am Aug 4, 2011 7:52am | Edited 8:24am
Quoting indianguyinny24
Does BOJ know what they are doing....

gone 125 pips gain already...

have the speculator became bigger then CB???

amazing.....

seems they effectiveness is ....

V

PS: i am slight long at 79.20 with only scout....no worry about it all..... but want to understand the underline tone...
Vic,
BoJ is not a speculator nor a trading counterparty.
They just protecting Floor.
so long as markets not trading for days under their floor, only then you will see them come in defence. They monitoring but may not be always on open market operation, unless market rioting.
Seems they had already intervened, and had showed market guidance, now they monitoring waht the naughtys want to do.
In open market operations they can be working in up to 50 pips band, normally less than. So the 100's of pips runs , thats not boj.

But makets not feel right.
Price volatity seems rigged.
I am also monitoring what is happening. This not feel like markets at all.
too many wide 30 pip gaps all over when moves. or is dead in 5 pip ranges.
Is very very wierd.
Only conclusion I can see for now is rigging in vacuum. And all leveraged accounts are endangered if have positions.
I suspect computers are sweeping in nano seconds.
Their prices is impossible to hit. But orders all will fill.
And all your stops inclusive accout buyin stops all can be eyeballed in the computers.
Thats only explanation i can think of for all the wild twi way pins that can be in 100 pip wide in seconds.

this the reason for my above post.
I am feeling very unprecedented stuff and my experiments so far in retail foresx had keep pointing to those thoughts.
Its many times , these abnormalities had been happening.
I keep wondering where the spot interbank market makers.
OR are they still around at all.
Those solid bodies on the charts, that could be interbank prices.
BUT whose prices are those long two way pins???
IAnd i worry for those who seriously trading for a living.
Foe education, there's much lessons that electronic trading is teaching.

So if market pin trades from 7900 to 7000 and back in 1 second.
is a giant pin.
so what BOJ wants do?
Maerkets still at 7900, but all leveraged accounts longs will be in the grave.

I had seen this happen only once.
That was when the trade rules of the SIMEX exchange was still in infancy.
Nikkei 225 index dropped from above 10000 to trade 5000 for a few minutes and came back, in another few.
After that the exchange implimented limit and suspension rules, to protect from systemic failures.
Quite many trders went bankrupt in those few minutes. abut 50+ floor traders became instant millionaires, as i can remember.
  • #26,871
  • Aug 4, 2011 7:54am Aug 4, 2011 7:54am
Quoting fti
Vic,
BoJ is not a speculator nor a trading counterparty.
They just protecting Floor.
so long as markets not trading for weeks under their floor, only then you will see them come in defence. They monitoring but may not be always on open market operation.
Seems they had already intervened, and had showed market guidance, now they monitoring waht the naughtys want to do.

But makets not feel right.
Price volatity seems rigged.
I am also monitoring what is happening. This not feel like markets at all.
too many wide 30 pip gaps all over.

I agree this market doesnt feel that right....

People had respect for CBs earlier ...now within hours people start going against it...

will take some break already made my % for this week....

V
  • #26,872
  • Aug 4, 2011 8:05am Aug 4, 2011 8:05am
Quoting fti
No secrets.

This forex retail markets are rigged.
they call 5% margining for forex accounts
Forex 12 monthly historical volatility is 10/20 %
second to second volatility, I measuring exceeds 100% in seconds often.
based on this measurements,so in the end all accounts will be dead.
Its not all at the same time. Only ultimately all will be dead.
Irregardless of ability.

I know how interbank sweep stops, but thinking without stops they cannot sweep.
Unfortunately every leverage account, has stop order.
Is known as buyin point.
And there...
does it mean that one should not trade forex????.....i take your words very seriously. it is just very disturbing.
  • #26,873
  • Aug 4, 2011 8:20am Aug 4, 2011 8:20am
The new leader...
Inserted Video
  • #26,874
  • Aug 4, 2011 8:27am Aug 4, 2011 8:27am
Quoting cuthbert
does it mean that one should not trade forex????.....i take your words very seriously. it is just very disturbing.
I cannot say.
but surely not sell the house for trading.

regards
  • #26,875
  • Edited 9:25am Aug 4, 2011 8:28am | Edited 9:25am
Quoting Fana
The new leader...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SuW7JzF1dSs
nope, not for me.
their system and track record , not impressed me yet.

Its not this that i am uneas about.
Is the markets. Something smells.

The world's financial system is at the cliff of colapse.
Had the forex market structure collapsed already????

You see, the forex backbone is a group of very steady and large tier 1 market making base.
even on asap reuters there are filters to weed out errant market pricing.
If retail forex is true repesentation of those spot interbank prices at all time, then it is resting safely on a true market.
Otherwise, is a scam because if it can do basis differencials wide and away from true markets to sweep stops then is truely victimising traders who are taken in by leverrage greed.

regards

Let me give you a very extreme example, this called scratching.

Bank A, Bank B, Bank C

Bank A calls bank C
may i have usd/farts for 100 mio
bank C:1.0000/02
bank A :thanks nothing.

then banb A calls bank B
may i have usd/farts in 1 mio
bank B 1.0000/02
Bank A: yours
Bank B: OK, done i buy 1 mio usd/farts 1.0000
my usd my ..... and your farts my ..... accounts
thanks for trade.

then bank A calls bank B another line
may i have usd/farts in 1 mio
bank B 0.9000/02
Bank A: yours
Bank B: OK, done i buy 1 mio usd/farts 0.90000
my usd my ..... and your farts my ..... accounts
thanks for trade.

then bank B calls bank A
may i have usd/farts in 1 mio
bank A 0.8998/00
Bank B: mine
Bank A: OK, done i sold 1 mio usd/farts 0.9000
my usd my ..... and your farts my ..... accounts
thanks for trade.

then bank B calls bank A
may i have usd/farts in 1 mio
bank A 0.9998/00
Bank B: mine
Bank A: OK, done i sold 1 mio usd/farts 1.0000
my usd my ..... and your farts my ..... accounts
thanks for trade.

ok so what happened
the market traded 1.0000 drooped to 0.9000 and back to 1.0000

back c sees this
calls bank A
may i have usd/farts for 10 mio.
Bank A: sure , 0.9998/00
Bank C : thanks nothing.

You see bank C saw market move 0.1000 pips.
but because A and B was scratching, Bank C sees markets not moved.

but i ask you.
when that happens what happens to all the retail orders piled between 1.0000 to 0.9000 at the retail brokers?

can you see the picture already?
then think this happening in micro seconds.

your charts will show
market traded 1.0000 then 0.9000, then 1.0000
the pins.
but did markets moved?
and remember computer can see where stop and limit orders
all of it to determine how far to move it advantagously and contineously.

Scratching is a major offence in all trading exchanges around the world. It violates price infraction rules.
In the OTC markets , it is not possible impliment these rules.
With computer techninology, and criminal minds is impossible for the best auditors detect the cross border possibilities.
  • #26,876
  • Aug 4, 2011 8:31am Aug 4, 2011 8:31am
Quoting fti
nope, not for me.
their system and track record , not impressed me yet.

regards
Hi Fti, but if i see what they built and technologicall progress... For me personally impressive. But there are other questions, of course... Btw and i like that music to that video... Or video to music? (i am pacifist... please dont think about me that i like army...)
  • #26,877
  • Aug 4, 2011 9:20am Aug 4, 2011 9:20am
Quoting fti
nope, not for me.
their system and track record , not impressed me yet.

Its not this that i am uneas about.
Is the markets. Something smells.

The world's financial system is at the cliff of colapse.
Had the forex market structure collapsed already????

You see, the forex backbone is a group of very steady and large tier 1 market making base.
even on asap reuters there are filters to weed out errant market pricing.
If retail forex is true repesentation of those spot interbank prices at all time, then it is resting safely on a true market.
Otherwise,...
So the retailers provide liquidity and trade againt themselves? And this scratched area is a "pool" for their minitradings?
  • #26,878
  • Aug 4, 2011 9:29am Aug 4, 2011 9:29am
Quoting Fana
So the retailers provide liquidity and trade againt themselves? And this scratched area is a "pool" for their minitradings?

this was sighted as reason for by some govts and CBs for banning forex trading in retail.
You see, these activities cannot hurt full cash positions and nothing happens to positions unless stops were placed.
But to highly geared leveraged accounts , is killers.

To date my experimentation in the retail forex , tends to supprot the reasoning validity.

regards
  • #26,879
  • Aug 4, 2011 9:31am Aug 4, 2011 9:31am
Quoting fti

this was sighted as reason for by some govts and CBs for banning forex trading in retail.
You see, these activities cannot hurt full cash positions and nothing happens to positions unless stops were placed.
But to highly geared leveraged accounts , is killers.

To date my experimentation in the retail forex , tends to supprot the reasoning validity.

regards
Thank you:-)
  • #26,880
  • Aug 4, 2011 10:07am Aug 4, 2011 10:07am
Guys, take a look at these pictures. This is the Market Depth window for G/U, U/J and E/U.

Those 3000k limit orders (in white rectangles) are ALWAYS THERE, just few pips bellow/above the last trade. And I mean ALWAYS! Their prices are constantly adjusted and stay bellow/above. Sometimes they get filled but just in NANOseconds they are replaced by new 3000k at the usual distance - few pips.

Now, this isn't valid only for these pairs, but for ALL AVAILABLE pairs on the platform. (I just cba to take N more pictures).

I mean, at any given NANOsecond, among other limit orders, there are ALWAYS 2 x 3000k limit orders on both sides at a fixed distance to last trades' price.

Any comments?

This is not an off topic, I think. It is related to fti's comments on retail forex, scam, manipulation, stop hunting, etc.

Am I paranoic? To me it looks like a robot. Or maybe I am a moron missing something :-)

Plamen

Edit: p.s. Well, I said "limit" orders. Could be "market". Duno. Just ignore the order type above.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.jpg Size: 180 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy.jpg Size: 177 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.jpg Size: 180 KB
Bah...
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