Price action is dumb, and you're lazy for thinking otherwise | Page 23 | Forex Factory

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Price action is dumb, and you're lazy for thinking otherwise

  • #441
  • Aug 2, 2011 8:22am Aug 2, 2011 8:22am
Quoting Pipalicious
Shame on all you guys arguing like pitiful little children.

Absolutely pathetic.

Instead of constructive criticism the majority of you people just argue.

I guess the lot of you are just as predictable as everyone else here.

We got the order flow gang bang groups.

The "its all probability" dipsticks.

And the "who cares why when it works".

Shame on you all.

Fuking sick of this forum.
I wish there were some chicks in order flow gang bang .
  • #442
  • Aug 2, 2011 8:37am Aug 2, 2011 8:37am
Quoting Pipalicious
Absolutely pathetic.

...

Fuking sick of this forum.
^ this.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #443
  • Aug 2, 2011 8:39am Aug 2, 2011 8:39am
Many compliments to the good Dr. for presenting us with a most elegant model of market/motion dynamics. About the best expression of such that I have seen due to it's ability to create the perfect visual. It gives us a foundation that we can see and feel. If we can feel a thing we can become one with it through the principle of sympathetic vibration. He is giving us a chance to become one with the market/s

Perhaps we can build upon it if we could identify two of the unknown components described by his model.

1. A teeter tooter sits upon a fulcrom or pivot...The central point of balance for the arms of the teeter tooter. The point upon which the arms swing. If we can identify this location on a chart we will have a market...Pivot point.
Maybe we could identify this point on a chart as, a "swing bar."

2. Where does the 50 kg weight come from or better yet, who has the strength to carry that much weight to toss onto the teeter tooter. If we can identify who controls the weight, we may not be able to predict when they will throw their weight around but, we can see when they...HAVE...thrown it. Then we have a chance to react. Maybe not quick enough but, a chance where we had not even a chance before. All the kids playing on the teeter tooter see the fat kid coming aboard and are wise enough to take the necessary action or inaction as needed.

Looking at the Dr.'s example, it seems as we could add quite a bit to our analysis if we could identify:

1. The pivot point/swing bar
2. Who and where is the fat kid/s
  • #444
  • Aug 2, 2011 9:00am Aug 2, 2011 9:00am
Quoting Pipalicious
Shame on all you guys arguing like pitiful little children.

Absolutely pathetic.

Instead of constructive criticism the majority of you people just argue.
...

Fuking sick of this forum.
Someone holding a gun to your head forcing you to read and comment?
Then just go away, dumbass.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #445
  • Aug 2, 2011 9:02am Aug 2, 2011 9:02am
Quoting seagreen
I wish there were some chicks in order flow gang bang .
hmm... As long as im the only bloke involved
  • #446
  • Aug 2, 2011 9:08am Aug 2, 2011 9:08am
Quoting DrDave
Someone holding a gun to your head forcing you to read and comment?
Then just go away, dumbass.
Touched a nerve there did I, Doc?

Im here to observe, not ridicule, insult, nor partake in silly girl fights.

Go back to med school big boy.

Peace out.
  • #447
  • Aug 2, 2011 12:56pm Aug 2, 2011 12:56pm
Pipalicious, you literally just did what you just said you wouldn't do, with that last post.

I mean hey, at least I'm honest with myself. I am here to partake in silly girl fights, ridicule, etc. I'll leave my serious posts to the serious threads
  • #448
  • Aug 2, 2011 1:04pm Aug 2, 2011 1:04pm
Quoting fxmajic
The usdcad is under accumulation since the long 4hr candle on Friday. That up move had too much participation by retail traders and are being shaken out of their longs...

The 4hr is telling the story. Though this pair looks like it's falling the big fellas are buying up the positions that the retailers are selling.

Retailers jumped the move around 0.9496 and their stops are going to be just below this level...

Look to enter long anywhere in the 0.9475- 90 area...
Also I liked this post from early Monday / late Sunday and I think it's worth a requote. To me this was logical chart analysis (personally I would include this in technical analysis, but maybe others wouldn't), and happened to be almost spot on. Maybe it was luck, maybe not.
  • #449
  • Aug 2, 2011 7:20pm Aug 2, 2011 7:20pm
Quoting superdezign
I dont want anyone's system, please keep them to yourself.

I would never share mine, since I have been developing it for 5 years. I have spent thousands of hours testing it, developing theories, I even taught myself calculus.

I was just wondering if anyone actually understands what they are doing, what they are exploiting, or if they even know the basic math behind what they are doing.

I talked to a guy the other day, he went on and on about how awesome his system was. He mentioned that he used the RSI...

Which had me stop him right...
I don't want to bash you or your system in terms of if it works, as i would guess it does as you are still interested in trading and teaching trading. but as a word of non egotistical opinion, I trade PA and have had success so far so you can't honestly say it doesn't work and I do accept that there will be down days or bad trades but that is something any trader using any system is going to have to accept. As far as what is right vs wrong or works vs fails THERE IS NO ANSWER. As the more active traders should know trading is about psychology so what works for you may not work for me and PA works for me so my guess is it hasn't worked for you.
Trade and let trade the only trading systems that don't work are ones where the system's methodology and the trader don't work well together.
  • #450
  • Aug 2, 2011 8:02pm Aug 2, 2011 8:02pm
Quoting superdezign
Hmmm your logic has a few holes in it when applying it to markets..

Who is to say $80 for whatever you are buying a bargain?

I get how SD levels work, you look for a level price has bounced off of and buy there, and I know it gets a little more complex than that, but I am assuming we've all heard of SD levels.

But stocks don't just move from one price to another for absolutely no reason. People have incentives.

Lets say prices made a high at 100 and are going back down to 80 where the last SD level was (low extreme, ect).. Well, as...
That logic is like saying because Macy's is having a sale you wont buy a new shirt. Assuming the fundamental story of a stock remains intact buying on broad insignificant market weakness has been a very good and profitable strategy. Similar to why SD levels work there is a certain level where people just say "this stock is too cheap" say at the $80 to stick with your numbers and then by what ever valuation metrics a new price level is defined where the same buyers will be compelled to sell. Though there is no way, I know at least, to accurately predict the exact tops and bottoms levels.
  • #451
  • Aug 2, 2011 8:24pm Aug 2, 2011 8:24pm
Just as a final word before i end my nights read, If you equate profits to success and losses to failures then wouldn't any system that turns a profit over any period of time be a success therefore if i turn a profit trading a coin toss system then i can assume that a coin toss system can be successful without having any understanding why and directional bias is justified. With regards to the idea that you cant be sure on each trade any system accepts that with 1:2 R:R you only need to to be right 34% of the time to make money and the simplest MA cross over system could get 50% accuracy.
At the end of the day any system is actually predicting the actions of all participants and the masses rarely act logically, so maybe PA unlogical basis is actually logical . The point is there is flaws to any system I trade Fibs and PP and I understand that an american selling their dollars to buy euros to go enjoy a vacation in France doesn't care that there is a bullish gartley pattern forming. Like i said before to each their own there is enough pips to go around.
  • #452
  • Aug 3, 2011 4:36pm Aug 3, 2011 4:36pm
Now, i haven't read all the posts here but i thought i'd join in to add my 2 cents however worth(-ful or -less) it may be to you.


Quoting superdezign
I'm sure there are correlations that tie traffic patterns in Austria to stock prices in Brazil's stock exchange. Does that mean they are related, would you trade that correlation?
Intermarket correlations (or any correlation between different instruments for that matter) in ITSELF is of course meaningless simply because it cannot have any FUNDAMENTALLY justifiable reasons to predict the future.

In theory, yes, stocks should be inversely correlated with bonds (just giving an example) but today's environment is a perfect example of how "outside factors" can perfectly fck that correlation up.


Quoting superdezign
The focus of this thread was suppose to be to answer:
1.) Are people aware of what sort of logic backs up their trading
2.) Is there any logic/principal that can support PA/TA
3.) Does the answer to number 2 (whatever is may be) really give a trader an edge?
1) one forum member put it perfectly: "understand what moves price, and why price moves"
2) absolutely...the answer is liquidity and trading interest
3) i think it does


Quoting superdezign
"Using price action as a method of entry/exit is ridiculous"
"Technical analysis falls under the same category of invalidated trading"
"Price movements are random" (post #193)
ok, we need to define price action and how it separates from technical analysis. It seems to me that you put those two together as if price action is (only) tech analysis.

Price action is the RESULT of everything...every technical trader action....every fundamental trader action...whatever you can think of....price action is the result of every trader who have placed their orders. Now, you see why you cannot say "price action is dumb"...that would be like saying that every single trader out there is dumb. I think what you meant to say was that predicting future price moves solely from a chart is dumb. Now that is debatable and i'm pretty sure this is what you've been doing here on this thread for many pages...i'll just leave that one alone

Moving on, does tech analysis work ? Sure. But the question is where is that profit coming from. If a tech trader makes consistantly profits simply by anticipating price action (looking at a chart) then he probably is subconsiously still trading the order flow. It's his EXPERIENCE and intuition to make a decision whether to enter or not to enter into the market when he anticipates price. He used to took all the signals and now he has cut them massively. He remembers the continous mistakes he has taken in the past and is probably acting the opposite of his starting days.

About prices being random. Here's the problem of why price movements cannot be random all the time. Because trading interest is not constant. Liquidity is not constant. That's the mistake MOST of the (tech) traders make when they analyse a chart. They think that every candle pattern holds the same importance. That every pinpar is equally important. I mean, admit it, this is what you thought, didn't you ? That's the reason you started this thread in the first place. How is it possible that you make a profit ? If prices were random then i guess you would assume that markets are efficient but then you would NOT be able to make constantly profits. It's as simple as that. Someone HAS to drive the price out of its "fair value"...whatever the reasons may be.

As a side note, I remember you once mentioned that order flow trading is too arbitrary and it doesn't work or smth like that. I find it interesting since you've also said that it is important to know WHY a currency would be more likely to be demanded or supplied. Isn't those "WHY's" really the search for who, when and where would either be demanding or supplying a certain currency ? And isn't that the true order flow trading ? Well, it is to me...
  • #453
  • Aug 3, 2011 10:42pm Aug 3, 2011 10:42pm
Gbpusd - equilibrium point = 1.6295. Look for a pullback to that level before considering longs. Take shorts to this level with stop 10 pips above yesterdays high

Eurusd - equilibrium point = 1.4295. Look for a pullback to that level before considering longs. Take shorts to this level with stop above yesterdays's high

audusd - equilibrium level = 1.0647 Look for a pullback to that level before considering longs. Take shorts to this level with stop above yesterdays's high

When the levels are hit look for reversal bars to go in the opposite direction.

Usd chf -0.8005 will not meet daily resistance until that level. look to take longs with stop below yesterday's low.

Nzdusd - Fell through equilibrium point. Next equilibrium point is 0.08358. Take shorts to this level with stop above yesterday's high

Eurcad - closed above equilibrium point of 1.3686 -48. target next equilibrium point at 1.4008. Look to buy in equilibrium range with stop below tuesday's low.

Analysis based on price supported by volume. Volume to mean the amount of participation and who the majority of participation was. Retail or professional.

Note: usdchf and nzdusd projections are counter trend which means the risk is heightened if reversal trades are taken after pullback to the stated equilibrium levels.

I do not not if the analysis would be considered price/technical or fundamental analysis as I am no expert on such. But hopefully with 50% luck ( the flip of a coin ) and 20% knowledge, I can walk away with 70% accuracy ( 50% luck + 20% knowledge...
  • #454
  • Edited Aug 4, 2011 9:34am Aug 3, 2011 10:48pm | Edited Aug 4, 2011 9:34am
Lots of people didn't understand what they are doing, but they know why they are doing it, for money, what else? They just don't know if they are doing it right. So they will assume and convince themselves that they are in the right path, for that they will fight defending their faith till the last of their blood. And, what the most of traders faith are PA, TA, indicators, EAs, etc. And nobody can blame anyone for this, it is just the nature of human learning process. Natural selection, you know. Until some point when the weak couldn't stand anymore, they quit, but the tough guy will survive, find their way to the new age.

At that point, only the survivors know what they are doing and why they are doing it. And, superdezign, maybe you are the one at this new age, 21st century people, of course you cannot barely jump into the Amazon or New Guinea, and ask the natives why they are believing in their Spirits of the Forest, or The sacred souls of the wind

For me, trading is like doing anything else, you should know what, why, how, and when you are doing it. And about PA, maybe it is not as dumb as you guess. It is dumb if being used by the natives (imagine what will the prehistoric people do with match, or fan, you cannot say that the match or fan are dumb because these people worshiping that as the Holy God of fire and spirit of the wind,
  • #455
  • Aug 4, 2011 3:52am Aug 4, 2011 3:52am
Quoting smittens4212
Pipalicious, you literally just did what you just said you wouldn't do, with that last post.

I mean hey, at least I'm honest with myself. I am here to partake in silly girl fights, ridicule, etc. I'll leave my serious posts to the serious threads
Aye, I did. I admit my ego still gets in the way, hes very stuborn even though I talk to him, negotiate with him and still he tells my self to piss off haha.

Still lurkin...
  • #456
  • Aug 4, 2011 12:40pm Aug 4, 2011 12:40pm
Hi, I'm looking for someone who can modify Zen Leow's flexi bar swing to generate a signal only on a close above or below the swing bar. Currently the indicator give a signal when price breaks above the swing bar and this generates too many false signals.

I am a junior member and cannot contact members privately yet and so, cannot get in touch with Zen Leow the creator of the indicator.

any suggestions would be greatly appreciated...

As a new member I do not know if I am breaking any rules by submitting my request in this manner and if so, I don't mind being corrected...
  • #457
  • Aug 4, 2011 1:16pm Aug 4, 2011 1:16pm
I throw my first dart at the dart board. That's my stop loss. I throw my second dart at the dart board. That's my limit. I throw my third dart at the dart board. That's the percentage of my equity I'll risk on the trade. Hey, it's stupid. But, it's got a better success rate than all the logic I've tried to apply.
"The only way to win the game is not to play." - B. S. Miller
  • #458
  • Dec 28, 2011 9:03am Dec 28, 2011 9:03am
I don't set SL or TP. After I open a position I always shake my magic 8 ball and do as the spirits from beyond tell me. I ask "should I close the trade now?" and I do according to one of 20 answers. Only idiots set SL and TP levels, I never do that and my system is 100% accurate but I'm not going to reveal it, for obvious reasons. All I can say is that you're all stupid, because you don't know why you trade the way you trade, but I know exactly why I trade the way I trade. Please prove me wrong. I'm waiting for your answers you broke motherfuckers.
  • #459
  • Dec 28, 2011 6:08pm Dec 28, 2011 6:08pm
Quoting govno
I don't set SL or TP. After I open a position I always shake my magic 8 ball and do as the spirits from beyond tell me. I ask "should I close the trade now?" and I do according to one of 20 answers. Only idiots set SL and TP levels, I never do that and my system is 100% accurate but I'm not going to reveal it, for obvious reasons. All I can say is that you're all stupid, because you don't know why you trade the way you trade, but I know exactly why I trade the way I trade. Please prove me wrong. I'm waiting for your answers you broke motherfuckers....
Your posts are exactly the same as the meaning of your nickname.
  • #460
  • Dec 28, 2011 7:59pm Dec 28, 2011 7:59pm
Quoting Forex5050
Your posts are exactly the same as the meaning of your nickname.
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