Price action is dumb, and you're lazy for thinking otherwise | Page 15 | Forex Factory

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Attachments: Price action is dumb, and you're lazy for thinking otherwise
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Price action is dumb, and you're lazy for thinking otherwise

  • #281
  • Jul 28, 2011 9:17am Jul 28, 2011 9:17am
wow. so many haters all trying to prove how big their e-penor is. bunch of tire-kicking clowns, the lot of you. if you want to hope and pray that your magic lines, squares, circles, and reverse owl pattern all work 'just because' then good for you.

this is just like being for or against creationism. darwinism needs to do some serious house-cleaning.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #282
  • Jul 28, 2011 9:26am Jul 28, 2011 9:26am
Quoting Pipalicious
Hmm...yes I see what you mean, and I also agree.

Trends by themselves (depending upon definition...!) are mostly "after the facts". So this in itself (again...depending on definition) will no matter what get you in late, no matter how many hours you are in front of the screen (my opinion).
And that, my friend, is EXACTLY why I LOVE lagging indicators!!!! If the party typically lasts 10 hours and reaches its peak between 3 and 6 hours after starting, then WHO CARES if I arrived even 1 hour late.
There is still PLENTY of food and drinks on the table for a good 2 hours after I got there. the party COULD go bust and be shut down while I'm on the way; it could run out of food and drinks in the first half hour. I might even crash my car on the way there and never make it in the door. But I know from a LOT of parties extremely similar to this one that my CHANCES of getting in and reaping the benefit out weigh the chances of getting little to nothing make it worthwhile to take the trip.

DrDave
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #283
  • Jul 28, 2011 9:30am Jul 28, 2011 9:30am
By the way, if you have been paying attention, superdezign is at least still lurking.

DrDave
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #284
  • Jul 28, 2011 9:35am Jul 28, 2011 9:35am
Quoting DrDave
[color=black][font=Verdana]I think another one that has missed the point. Who said that you need to understand the derivation of our indicator? As you said correctly “Just use it”. But the topic question is HOW are you using it? Do you place on end on a swing bar, then generate a random number onto which to place the other end? Hey, if so, that sounds a little bit SCIENTIFIC! You used a random number generator. OK, but the basic question comes back to WHY and HOW did you decide that it gives you an edge to position your EMA this way? If oyu have...
I didn't miss the point....this was a clarifying statement made by the OP --
"
It is one thing to use indicators, and it is an entirely different thing to know nothing about them.

"Can you even tell me, what RSI is?"
"It uhh measures the relative strength"
"Of what?"
"I.. I don't know"

He couldn't even tell me begin to tell me how it worked...

Gross... (and this guy is interning at a hedge fund)

I think most technical traders are the same way. They use these indicators because they work sometimes, for a while, before their parameters are no longer optimized to the volatility of the markets, then chalk it up to it needed tweaking, bla bla bla... lather, rinse, repeat

I think indicators are just a crutch for people who don't understand math, finance, or economics. They want to make money, and indicators are the push button way to start trading.

So, I am putting it out there... I don't want your systems, I dont want you to explain to me how you trade... I just want to know.. Do people get the logic behind their systems or do they just blinding follow the doji stars to the poor house?
"


And yes.....it probably took someone an extremely long time to come up with an equation for the exponential moving average....my point is......what trader needs to know the math behind a RSI or an EMA? What is most important is that a trader knows why his system works or why he has an edge. The only reason a trader may not know why his system works if he adopted someone elses system. This shows a lack of talent.
  • #285
  • Jul 28, 2011 9:36am Jul 28, 2011 9:36am
Quoting Pipalicious
Hmm...yes I see what you mean, and I also agree.

The issue here is like you said that "fine line".

Trends by themselves (depending upon definition...!) are mostly "after the facts". So this in itself (again...depending on definition) will no matter what get you in late, no matter how many hours you are in front of the screen (my opinion).

Its that fine balance in identifying the initiation of a "valid" movement that wont move against you and become chop or complete reversal.

In the end, all we require is of movement, which can be seen...

I agree with you on the trend part, you will never get in from the beginning of a move. Also depending on the what TF you define a valid trend, the longer the confirmation of a trend and hence your entry will take.

Once again, it is a play off between what you want to risk, which should be as low as possible and getting the confirmation of a probable valid move.

I think trying to determine a valid move in it's infancy, they way you suggested, is near impossible. Isn't this what most of us are trying to do in any case? Trying to catch a valid move at the bottom and riding it all the way to the top?
  • #286
  • Jul 28, 2011 10:10am Jul 28, 2011 10:10am
Quoting DrDave
By the way, if you have been paying attention, superdezign is at least still lurking.

DrDave
Yep.

This thread has answered my question. It's served it purpose, and I'm mostly done with it.

I'm just curious as to how all this will end.
  • #287
  • Jul 28, 2011 10:39am Jul 28, 2011 10:39am
Quoting superdezign
Yep.

This thread has answered my question. It's served it purpose, and I'm mostly done with it.

I'm just curious as to how all this will end.
So are you and DrDave going to get your own thread together now?
'Cos i really think you could have found someone with a little more sense of humour...i find him a bit boring TBH
All systems of divination, like music itself,work through patterns.
  • #288
  • Jul 28, 2011 10:46am Jul 28, 2011 10:46am
The thread will die eventually in a few more days, a couple of weeks, whatever.....who cares? Next!!!!
  • #289
  • Jul 28, 2011 10:58am Jul 28, 2011 10:58am
Quoting superdezign
Yep.

This thread has answered my question. It's served it purpose, and I'm mostly done with it.

I'm just curious as to how all this will end.
The main purpose of most threads here is enterntainment. This one is no exception so it has definitely served its purpose.
  • #290
  • Jul 28, 2011 12:55pm Jul 28, 2011 12:55pm
Quoting seagreen
The main purpose of most threads here is enterntainment. This one is no exception so it has definitely served its purpose.
Yep agreed the sad thing is that newbs don't need all this mis-information and dis-information.

There are so many people that try to do good here and it is totally ruined by the idiots trying to be clever.
  • #291
  • Jul 28, 2011 1:15pm Jul 28, 2011 1:15pm
Quoting superdezign
Well

Now that I have your attention hear this: Using price action as a method of entry/exit is ridiculous, You can't use a single variable to predict itself. Technical analysis falls under the same category of invalidated trading.

Every trader I have talked to who is a technical trader has been unable to answer this one simple question:

Why does you system work?

I can tell you exactly why the way I trade is the way I trade. I can tell you why it works, the principals it is based off of, and...
I'm going to be honest here and say that ive really only half assed read through your posts since most of them seem to be inflamatory provoking statements trying to make sure you get a response. I've stopped posting on FF because im really busy with work right now and the PIE thread has pretty much been shot to hell with idiot traders who have yet to grasp the basics of PA and S/D but thats a different story for another time.

Now:
"Using price action as a method of entry/exit is ridiculous, You can't use a single variable to predict itself. Technical analysis falls under the same category of invalidated trading. "

1) Now i will not speak for technical analysis(emas,smas, adx etc etc) since i trade naked based on PA and S/D. I have a winrate of about 88-91% so i know very much what im doing and why im doing it. So you making a statement that me basing entries and exits based on my "system" or more or less a component of my system is kind of ridiculous in itself. Now if you were merely stating your oppinion that would be a different thing. I cannot argue with other persons oppinions but i can argue with definitive statements. So Which is it? An oppinion or a statement?

2) You're under the faulty presumption that PA and S/D is one variable or that you can use a single candle (albeit this rarely can be the case). So you're statement is once again kind of... well... ambigious and under-elaborated at best and pure bullshit at worst.


"Why does you system work?"

That's actually an interessting and certifiably legitimate question albeit poorly phrased, i mean you could elaborate a little bit more on what exactly you want included in this response.
Me and many other more prominent traders (redsword, emene, ifmyante, bbaker, kennyz, franknn, mauro, budak, honeybhi, wormboy, Verb etc etc etc) have divulged a lot of information on our trading style, what it is based on, the reasoning and logic behind it, the variables that need to align to execute trades, the moneymanagement and risk schematics/setups etc. Although to be completely honest i have only shown most of the simple setups i take and execute and why i do them but once again that is a different discussion.

So once again i ask myself what exactly it is you're asking here? The exact mechanics in the execution? Or the Array/checklist/conditions that need to be fulfilled before i execute it?

I mean im presuming here that a simple enough phrased question like yours deserves a simple enough and equally poorly formulated answer, which in this case would be:

Because markets and their equilibrium can ALWAYS be deduced to their simplest core variables: Supply(sellers), Demand(buyers) and their ablative functions which would be orderflow and thus Price action even though price action has more integral variables to it such as structure.
Market movements are based on this. So i guess this is a sufficient enough answer for a simple enough question. Every market in the existence of humanity and every trade that was made and priced at was based on supply and demand. Irrefutable fact.

Every move I make is based in logic.

Yes so are mine, once again this seems to be more of a statement instead of a point introduced into a discussion.

Your final statement was "prove me wrong". If you were somebody who would truly understand mathematics and inuction and logic for that matter you would understand how truly laughable that statement of yours is. Especially because of the purple highlighted text.


Now, if you have any actual statements based on observable and repetitive evidence i will be more than happy to discuss and review and potentially even argue them with you.

I am eagerly awaiting your response.
  • #292
  • Jul 28, 2011 1:16pm Jul 28, 2011 1:16pm
Quoting Troikaone1
And yes.....it probably took someone an extremely long time to come up with an equation for the exponential moving average....my point is......what trader needs to know the math behind a RSI or an EMA? What is most important is that a trader knows why his system works or why he has an edge. The only reason a trader may not know why his system works if he adopted someone elses system. This shows a lack of talent.
Don't you see the problem here?

No one in this thread has done that. It has nothing to do with understanding how RSI or stochs are derived (although I certainly think any trader using these tools should know how they are derived, just like anyone who uses calculus should know how the math works even if they are just going to use their calculator in the end), it has to do with WHY you think your tool gives you an edge.

And not one person, as far as I'm concerned, has made any posts addressing this.

Darkstar and a couple other posters addressed price action and the principals/logic behind it, quite well in my opinion, but I have yet to really see anyone address why they think their MA, RSI, whatever system works.

I can personally think of how a system based off RSI, session levels, and price action could work (and just off the top of my head the RSI would be nothing more than a crutch) but I can't for a system just based off RSI. And I think that's what the OP really wanted. Explain why or how you think your tool gives you an edge. RSI alone doesn't, imo, nor do most if not all of the other traditional technical tools. So maybe that's why no one has come forward with a reasonable response.
  • #293
  • Jul 28, 2011 1:26pm Jul 28, 2011 1:26pm
Quoting smittens4212
Don't you see the problem here?

No one in this thread has done that. It has nothing to do with understanding how RSI or stochs are derived (although I certainly think any trader using these tools should know how they are derived, just like anyone who uses calculus should know how the math works even if they are just going to use their calculator in the end), it has to do with WHY you think your tool gives you an edge.

And not one person, as far as I'm concerned, has made any posts addressing this.

Darkstar and a couple other posters addressed...
well, but thats obvious, ma-crossovers dont cause pricemovements, pricemovements cause ma-crossovers
Invincibility lies in the defence, the possibility of victory in the attack
  • #294
  • Jul 28, 2011 1:28pm Jul 28, 2011 1:28pm
Right, and I think the OP was addressing the people using those systems... to which he didn't get any satisfactory response other than a bunch of yelling about how they don't need to know how EMAs are calculated as long as their EMA crossover made them money. Which is just as shit a statement as "PA doesn't work and everyone is wasting their time".
  • #295
  • Jul 28, 2011 2:10pm Jul 28, 2011 2:10pm
Quoting smittens4212
Right, and I think the OP was addressing the people using those systems... to which he didn't get any satisfactory response other than a bunch of yelling about how they don't need to know how EMAs are calculated as long as their EMA crossover made them money. Which is just as shit a statement as "PA doesn't work and everyone is wasting their time".
What he actually said in the title and opening post was PRICE ACTION is dumb, no mention of MAs or indis of any sort.

Like others have said PA drives indis, I don't need any indis now but I do accept that they can be used as a vague idea what the price may do, you can drill down tfs and wait for candles or bars to tell you what the price is really doing.
  • #296
  • Jul 28, 2011 2:25pm Jul 28, 2011 2:25pm
Price action or TA 'works' as much as you would expect the most basic indicator to work. Price is an indication.

In the end if you have a method of buying low and selling high, that's all you'll ever need.
  • #297
  • Jul 28, 2011 2:30pm Jul 28, 2011 2:30pm
Using price action as a method of entry/exit is ridiculous, You can't use a single variable to predict itself.

Yes you can. Price movements are function of order flow and liquidity. While previous price action can hardly predict future order flow, it can still give you some basic idea about liquidity distribution. Of course, trading off charts alone is not the best idea since you're using poor information, but it suits some people who don't like to use anything but charts.
  • #298
  • Jul 28, 2011 2:35pm Jul 28, 2011 2:35pm
Quoting seagreen
Using price action as a method of entry/exit is ridiculous, You can't use a single variable to predict itself.

Yes you can. Price movements are function of order flow and liquidity. While previous price action can hardly predict future order flow, it can still give you some basic idea about liquidity distribution. Of course, trading off charts alone is not the best idea since you're using poor information, but it suits some people who don't like to use anything but charts.
Liquidity and order flow would be X-factors in reflecting price since both are constantly changing leaving price action (entry/exits) unpredictable.
  • #299
  • Jul 28, 2011 2:48pm Jul 28, 2011 2:48pm
Quoting EmeraldEyes
Liquidity and order flow would be X-factors in reflecting price since both are constantly changing leaving price action (entry/exits) unpredictable.
Some are changing, some are still there. What I said is that you can gain some basic idea about liquidity distribution, like a hundred times blurred JPEG.

C'mon Emerald, I'm promoting price action trading here so you could take advantage of price action traders.
  • #300
  • Jul 28, 2011 2:53pm Jul 28, 2011 2:53pm
Quoting EmeraldEyes
Liquidity and order flow would be X-factors in reflecting price since both are constantly changing leaving price action (entry/exits) unpredictable.
Usually i don't feed trolls but in you're case ill make another exemption. Judging by your post i can't really tell though if you're just a troll or very very ignorant.

Just because you can't read it, extrapolate from it, understand it, does not make it unpredictable. It just emphasizes the point that you either havent put enough effort into understanding it/learning it.

I dont see people around university running around screaming: "LOL FOURIER TRANSFORMATIONS ARE FUCKING BULLSHIT THEY DONT WORK"

just because they arent bright enough or havent put enough effort into learning it. It takes time to understand things and even more so to master it.
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