USDCAD trend reversal?

I'll just keep it to my own trading system ..............always succesfull

"KISS"

S

FOTO: Too busy to post ( mkts making me work to make pips because nothing makes sense anymore).

U/Cad had break & close < TL (May 2- July 15). I'm selling.
Buying KIWI ( just keeps getting stronger).
G/Cad sell & if E/Cad descending triangle breaks 1.3450 then I'm selling.

Made good stuff from your Oz/KIWI sell tip.
Sure would appreciate some information re: the dynamics of your 2 political parties from your astute perspective.

My limited view is that of a cockfight-who has the bigger "codpiece" & is there
the physical wherewithal to fill it. Or is it something deeper? ( hatred for B.O.
&/or best interests to keep USD low). Beyond my ken- so I just keep my stick on the ice & use my teks.

Last week, one financial blog had a lead-in quote that was in your July 8 post. Either they read your posts or great minds think alike

Great trades to you my friend

Going to hold off for a while on this one.

Drop below 94 I will start entering Longs.

Very small positions to begin with.

buy this dip before the news, we should start moving towards parity soon...

Just opened a long @ 0.9472

All about the price. Its cheap, and we had a 120 pips bearish movement.

We could see bulls soon.

If we reach 0.9416 I will add a position.

I agree that parity is on the horizon.

I also believe a much better price can be entered by waiting a tad more.

Some things need to be played out first.

be patient.

http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=397

http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=397

Surely the Canadian government is starting to worry about such a strong CAD? Any thoughts??

Strong CAD ????

Sorry, but the cad is in the middle of nowhere. Attached is the weekly cad/lfx, which is the cad against a weighted basked of several other currencys.

So the cad imho starts dropping from the middle of somewhere to lower areas.

The problem is, most other currencys are much weaker then the cad, but the cad is not strong atm compared with other ones.

Thanks for your post and chart. I was just referring to the fact that every cent below parity weighs more and more on the Canadian GDP with oil. So I am sure they would be much happier with it close (or above parity). I had some market analyst tell me the exact amount but I remember thinking to myself that it would really start hurting them if it heads much lower (and this was a couple months ago). Its quite interesting I guess.

From a technical standpoint it is just "bobbin around" a bit now. I wonder where she'll go next?? I guess it depends on what happens in DC and oil prices. I know this time of year normally oil gets cheaper but with all the US default stuff it is anybody's guess as to what will happen.

planing shorts in the way of the trend at 0.9525 and 0.9600.
both levels represents fibonacci, s&r and 0.96 round number as psychological factor

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Xsg1oQTeY0...ell+signal.png

UC broke 0.9520 resistance and lost downward momentum for now.
Today's close probably above 0.9525. Will be interesting for next week.
Thinking of longs at this level.
Now 0.9520 - 0.9525 has become support and let's see if it will hold.

Orca

Next stop 0.9635

http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=397

http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=398

Haven't posted for awhile as between Bernanke's ongoing talking down of the USD and the uncertainty of outcome about the US debt ceiling was unable to get a read on probability of outcome.

Todays' plunge in Euro/CHF is signaling something really big is brewing. Also HSBC the UK banking giant announcing a workforce cut of 10% is disturbing.

Weak GDP numbers to boot last Friday.

Am watching for some strong move to show itself to break the high volatile range bound market we are in.

Euro is even weakening against the GBP.

Intuitively had been trading for a strong trend to develop, but keep getting thwarted by the range bound circumstances.

Markets just seem schizoid.

Some thoughts, good luck this week everyone.

If you are getting chopped up by volatility try the 8 hour on 40 day or daily on six month. The markets are calmer in the longer time frames and you will see selling pressure or buying pressure building in successive markets.

Price action is also more consistent on the longer time frames as institutions will wait for volatility extremes to execute positions.

The next sacred cow to be slaughtered am thinking will be the Euro.
Trichet will have a hard time sticking to the mantra, with both the SNB and BOJ choking about currency imbalances, with all the fracture possibilities for common currency countries.
For the Euro to survive with membership intact including Spain and Italy a lower Euro is needed.

commodity currencies:
Aud took the plunge as longs took the brunt over the past few days.
Was early, got stopped out, then had sold Aud again as it hit the extremes of volatility resulting from US congressional dithering. If this is the start of a wide based commodity selloff will have more opportunity to add to shorts. The initial selling is stop loss related. With the most likely scenario a rebound as this abates, will come the opportunity to sell some more. Anticipating trend initiation.

Global economic cohesion is failing as everyone will not take the hit for China's ongoing distortions of world markets, via its accumulation of currency reserves.

Interventions would indicate that governments are shoring up domestic economies as growth is not happening. If economic growth was occurring then there would be no need for intervention.

IMO, Ucad 2nd last Shoulder maybe forming as per chart. good to short with Entry @ 0.9700 break below SL - 0.9740 TP - 0.9590

let the market decide

Dead and Burried

USD/CAD current level is at the 200 day sma and also at the Bollinger band 2.5 std. deviation level off the 20 sma.

Should be a market price decision level. If the market breaks above here and we get a Friday close above today's close. The recent range bound market price action is likely coming to an end.

Trichet did not have a good day. So whether or not the Euro can be saved as Italy is to big to bail out. That subject as well as Sarkozy having to convince Merkel that Germany should hang in there for the sake of unity.
Merkel will probably go along but it will cost her, her political career.

Longer term with a weakening global economic outlook, really do not see how the Euro can be fixed.

Any bailout effort with a consequence rally in risk, should be an opportunity to sell commodity currencies.


Today's sell-off will reintroduce a slowdown as consumers will have to take a pause before confidence returns. This may well be the trigger event for the commodity reversal to become a trend.

Good luck tomorrow. will hold open positions through the NFP with very wide stops of 4 x daily atr as will play this move as a long term trend initiator. Never know when the real deal is happening until after the fact.