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  • #2,481
  • Jul 27, 2011 5:52am Jul 27, 2011 5:52am
looks like we have a trade then
Time hides Nothing
  • #2,482
  • Jul 27, 2011 5:58am Jul 27, 2011 5:58am
Quoting Sauron
Call it as you wish, if the US will be downgraded the cost of borrowing to sustain more debt will go up. I also see a political crisis in US, with republicans blackmailing an inept Obama.
O ya sorry, I dont ever mean to predict anything. ANYthing can happen Yes its bad but IMO The US's problems are light compared to what the Euro is in for.
  • #2,483
  • Edited 7:08am Jul 27, 2011 6:02am | Edited 7:08am
Yeah if this ends with a downgrade from Moody's looking certain then there won't be that much to look forward too as far as a dollar rally. If genuine panic does occur at any point then that changes things, but right now we're pricing in the downgrade IMO. Let's not forget that the debt ceiling in no way changes the fact that US economic news continues to be weak. Continued weakness is now directly tied to QE3 possibilities by Bernanke's words. Wich is what could drive continued dollar weakening after the debt ceiling plays out.

Semi-related: The monumental task US lawmakers face with the budget

---------
Japan intervention viable

If the US lawmakers honestly want to play chicken with the markets things could real interesting for japan. They've basically stated they are willing to intervene even though they know all they are going to do is misprice yen temporarily.
Cautiously optimistic. . .
  • #2,484
  • Jul 27, 2011 9:31am Jul 27, 2011 9:31am
Quoting Sauron
I'd sell euro because it has the biggest risk after the US debt is solved. Why selling the strongest currency instead of the weakest?
Because in current situation CHF is a more safe-heaven currency than EURO and there's lots of CHF longs that will have to exit once the US debt issue is over.
  • #2,485
  • Edited 10:20am Jul 27, 2011 9:33am | Edited 10:20am
Quoting EmeraldEyes
Got my eye on U/Chf for the bounce when the debt ceiling BS is over but as of right now, still shorting the xx/Chf pairs. Also positioned long on Chf/Jpy. It'll be interesting with intervention looming.
Are you playing that M&A news on CHF/JPY that came out a couple of days ago? My buy limit wasn't reached so I cancelled it.

Regarding intervention, I think both SNB and BOJ won't intervene now. They'll just wait for the good news about US debt ceiling and save the money. Too bad for them they'll have to wait for next week as politicians would probably make a deal at the last minute.
  • #2,486
  • Jul 27, 2011 9:48am Jul 27, 2011 9:48am
Yeah and one more thing. I think all this fuss with ratings downgrading is just agencies blackmailing the House. Once the ceiling is raised they'll shut up about downgrading. Just my crazy thought.
  • #2,487
  • Jul 27, 2011 10:26am Jul 27, 2011 10:26am
Guys, how do you copy text from Oanda java news feed?
  • #2,488
  • Jul 27, 2011 11:23am Jul 27, 2011 11:23am
Quoting seagreen
Guys, how do you copy text from Oanda java news feed?
Your mouse wont work. Use keyboard commands to do that.
.
  • #2,489
  • Jul 27, 2011 12:18pm Jul 27, 2011 12:18pm
Quoting nasir.khan
Your mouse wont work. Use keyboard commands to do that.
.
Doh,

Before I used to try to paste into reply window and it never worked. Turns out it works through notepad. Thanks.
  • #2,490
  • Jul 27, 2011 1:47pm Jul 27, 2011 1:47pm
Quoting seagreen
Doh,

Before I used to try to paste into reply window and it never worked. Turns out it works through notepad. Thanks.
I can copy and paste it directly to the reply window. Are you using the Java news application or you load it in a simple webpage? I am using a webpage as i cant use the Java app with demo account credentials.
.
  • #2,491
  • Jul 27, 2011 3:27pm Jul 27, 2011 3:27pm
Quoting nasir.khan
I can copy and paste it directly to the reply window. Are you using the Java news application or you load it in a simple webpage? I am using a webpage as i cant use the Java app with demo account credentials.
.
I use the button on Oanda fxTrade so it opens a webpage. Don't know why it doesn't work on my pc but it doesn't matter anyway now.
  • #2,492
  • Jul 28, 2011 1:53am Jul 28, 2011 1:53am
Quoting nasir.khan
What happened on GBP today with GDP was the one clear example of price inefficiency to me.

I dont short GU and GJ these days for Debt limit issue for the former and reasons posted in last 2 post by Trizzle and Tactical for the later.

This leaves me with Gchf.

There was a rumor of a weaker than expected GDP and i was short at 3125 for it and i believe many other did for the same reason. GDP came out exactly as expected and even though i had my stop moved to be 3 mins before the announcement i was taken out at a small loss cause of slippage....
Well something like this happened today during the NZD rate annoucement. The price spiked even when the rates were unchanged. Then it was taken back to the no-movement level. Though the total up and down move took abt 6 hrs so not sure if it was an efficiency or not.
  • #2,493
  • Jul 28, 2011 4:40am Jul 28, 2011 4:40am
Quoting vicky_ag
Well something like this happened today during the NZD rate annoucement. The price spiked even when the rates were unchanged. Then it was taken back to the no-movement level. Though the total up and down move took abt 6 hrs so not sure if it was an efficiency or not.
No that was cause of hawkish statement by RBNZ signaling that 50pts rate cut of march is no longer needed. So market is looking forward to a 50pts rate hike in Sept.
.
  • #2,494
  • Jul 28, 2011 4:48am Jul 28, 2011 4:48am
Quoting nasir.khan
No that was cause of hawkish statement by RBNZ signaling that 50pts rate cut of march is no longer needed. So market is looking forward to a 50pts rate hike in Sept.
.
By ramping up the price and then brining it back near the pre-annoucement level? Interesting.
  • #2,495
  • Jul 28, 2011 6:48am Jul 28, 2011 6:48am
Would't it be interesting if some worst than expctd Unemployment data could send Eu to 325ish (which is break of Daily PB and Support turned into resistance) and after two mins every one realize that this is a risk-off event rather than a bad for Dollar thingie and starts selling eu again. In the meanwhile i could get a nice short entry. lol
.
  • #2,496
  • Jul 28, 2011 11:02am Jul 28, 2011 11:02am
Quoting seagreen
.

Regarding intervention, I think both SNB and BOJ won't intervene now. They'll just wait for the good news about US debt ceiling and save the money. Too bad for them they'll have to wait for next week as politicians would probably make a deal at the last minute.
(IFR) The Japanese said overnight that they will not pull the FX intervention trigger before the US debt ceiling is reached next week,...

I could work in BOJ!
  • #2,497
  • Jul 28, 2011 6:29pm Jul 28, 2011 6:29pm
Quoting seagreen
(IFR) The Japanese said overnight that they will not pull the FX intervention trigger before the US debt ceiling is reached next week,...

I could work in BOJ!
They shouldn't have said that. Bad move on their part.

Gives the hunters all day Friday to try any shenanigans with gunning the downside barriers with lower risk of intervention.

They should have kept up the verbal intervention at least, or ramped it up. Its the only thing keeping usd/jpy from caving.
Private message me for a link to my order flow website.
  • #2,498
  • Jul 28, 2011 7:51pm Jul 28, 2011 7:51pm
Hi all, option barrier levels seems to be important levels to note for not only order flow trading but for any kind of methods. I wonder where could we find such information about the option barrier levels? Is this some kind of paid service?
  • #2,499
  • Jul 28, 2011 8:10pm Jul 28, 2011 8:10pm
Quoting petedeluiz
Hi all, option barrier levels seems to be important levels to note for not only order flow trading but for any kind of methods. I wonder where could we find such information about the option barrier levels? Is this some kind of paid service?
IFR reports on barrier options, you can see their news feed with an Oanda account (or maybe just a demo, I'm not sure). ForexLive also reports on barriers, vanilla expiries, stop/limit clusters and all that good stuff.
  • #2,500
  • Jul 28, 2011 8:25pm Jul 28, 2011 8:25pm
few months ago, there's a member named Dr.Geppy posted toxic option expiration in a text form, it's very clear and also state how much the option worth (millions). I'm not sure where we can find it..
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