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Why exactly do EMA crossover systems not work?

  • #401
  • Jul 27, 2011 11:41pm Jul 27, 2011 11:41pm
Quoting almo
Rather than try to get Max profit on every trade...shoot for something reasonable, like 80%.
Almo, if you put any artificial limit on your profits you are going to leave a LOT of pips on the table. Always extract the maximum of money from the market, that maximum being of course dictated by your (optimal) trading rules.
  • #402
  • Jul 27, 2011 11:46pm Jul 27, 2011 11:46pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
Almo, if you put any artificial limit on your profits you are going to leave a LOT of pips on the table. Always extract the maximum of money from the market, that maximum being of course dictated by your (optimal) trading rules.
Unfortuntately, using any kind of MA crosses will result in leaving approx 20 % on the table (from my observations).

It really doesn't mean anything though...it really comes down to Money Management once you have something with profit factor > 1


Here is what I am currently working on ...Profit Factor for 01/2010 to present - a meager 1.39. 1st chart only trading 0.01 lots, second chart adding my Money Management(where it progressively makes bigger lot sizes as the account grows)


Both tests start with $300.
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  • #403
  • Jul 28, 2011 12:05am Jul 28, 2011 12:05am
Quoting almo
Unfortuntately, using any kind of MA crosses will result in leaving approx 20 % on the table (from my observations).

It really doesn't mean anything though...it really comes down to Money Management once you have something with profit factor > 1


Here is what I am currently working on ...Profit Factor for 01/2010 to present - a meager 1.39. 1st chart only trading 0.01 lots, second chart adding my Money Management(where it progressively makes bigger lot sizes as the account grows)


Both tests start with $300.
only 200 odd samples? it has a nice upward slope, but for only 200 samples i wouldn't be comfortable touching it.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #404
  • Jul 28, 2011 12:08am Jul 28, 2011 12:08am
Quoting nubcake
only 200 odd samples? it has a nice upward slope, but for only 200 samples i wouldn't be comfortable touching it.
Its a work in progress. I am forward testing this specific set on Demo, while I continue tinkering. If nothing else, back testing doesn't cost anything but time



As for adding additional data, I don't feel that its required at the moment. The real issue up to now, was just getting the profit factor > 1.


**I should also note, that the point of the charts wasn't to show off my work, but rather , prove that using MA crosses can be profitable. Since I started posting on this thread, I haven't seen any charts, which is why I posted mine ***
  • #405
  • Jul 28, 2011 12:16am Jul 28, 2011 12:16am
Quoting almo
Unfortuntately, using any kind of MA crosses will result in leaving approx 20 % on the table (from my observations).
I was talking about using a simple moving average as an exit tool.

Look at the chart below (AUD/CAD, 1h), the trader who bought at 1.0210 using a price-action system for example is now 270 pips richer and his exit point (price closing below the 100-hour moving average) has not even been triggered.

The price could go another 300, 500 or 1000 pips higher before the price closes below the 100-hour moving average (blue line).

That's what I was talking about when I said never limit your profits but let the market give you the maximum.
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  • #406
  • Jul 28, 2011 12:37am Jul 28, 2011 12:37am
Quoting Mr Breakout
I was talking about using a simple moving average as an exit tool.

Look at the chart below (AUD/CAD, 1h), the trader who bought at 1.0210 using a price-action system for example is now 270 pips richer and his exit point (price closing below the 100-hour moving average) has not even been triggered.

The price could go another 300, 500 or 1000 pips higher before the price closes below the 100-hour moving average (blue line).

That's what I was talking about when I said never limit your profits but let the market give you the maximum.
Heh...ironically, so was I

Your chart isn't completed yet, so we can't really use that as an example just yet


Here is a recent trade that anyone using Ichimoku with a Kijunline Crossing the Kumo would have netted 300 pips, but would have left 190 pips (bottom + top of the trend) on the table, once price broke through the Kumo.

This is capturing 61% of the total move.
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  • #407
  • Jul 28, 2011 2:12am Jul 28, 2011 2:12am
Quoting Mr Breakout
I respect your opinion but let me ask you a question Turveyd : Do you really think that markets change over time?

Look at the daily currency charts from 1980 to 1990, then from 1990 to 2000, then from 2000 to 2010 and tell me if you see ANY difference at all. You won't find any because the market can only do 3 things and 3 things only : go up, go down, go sideways. That's it, go up, go down or go sideways. And if the trader can capture these up and down movements he will make money, simple as that, there is no need to "adapt" to anything.

In...

Yes, definately the big players tweak there buy / sell programs the volumes they are trading change.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #408
  • Jul 28, 2011 2:37am Jul 28, 2011 2:37am
Quoting nubcake
why don't ema crossovers work? why SHOULD they work? what reality are they based on? you hear all the time muppets like turveyd say how "the 'big boys' trade this MA bounce or crossover or moon cycle"... it's all bullshit they pulled out of their rears just to sound like they know something when they know sweet f a.
Quoting nubcake
of course there is always the sure-fire answer of "because the 'big boys' use this MA and that fib bounce" etc. as soon as someone uses the term "big boys" to put reason to something happening i know i'm reading the words of a complete and utter retard!
Quoting Turveyd
Yes, definately the big players tweak there buy / sell programs the volumes they are trading change.
it was only a matter of time before the big boys became the answer . seriously, you can bank on this garbage each and every time!

"yes, surely my xMA needs tweaking because mr biggest of big boys just did this to his.... no i don't have any evidence of this being remotely true but if you put it on your chart you will SEE.... why are you laughing at me?".

i wish i had access to the secret diaries of the 'big boys' so i can also be in the secret nose-tapping know, and then i too can be cool and know which xMA i should use next because if it's good enough for the 'big boys' then it's good enough for me. it must be awesome knowing what the 'big boys' do all of the time.

stream of tears in 3...2...
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #409
  • Jul 28, 2011 2:41am Jul 28, 2011 2:41am
Nubs you really are a brain dead POS!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #410
  • Jul 28, 2011 2:57am Jul 28, 2011 2:57am
Quoting Turveyd
Yes, definately the big players tweak there buy / sell programs the volumes they are trading change.
well, I always try to program systems that adapt to changing market conditions. Tweaking is in my opinion a bit of a problem, cause when you realize that the market has changed it is already too late. You already performed suboptimal and when you tweak your system, the market has most likely aready changed gears again.

Just my opinion and from my experience.
  • #411
  • Jul 28, 2011 3:11am Jul 28, 2011 3:11am
Quoting Custos
well, I always try to program systems that adapt to changing market conditions. Tweaking is in my opinion a bit of a problem, cause when you realize that the market has changed it is already too late. You already performed suboptimal and when you tweak your system, the market has most likely aready changed gears again.

Just my opinion and from my experience.
Same as trend you cant see the trend at first the secret is spotting the change early on adapting to it and continuely adjust so your not to far behind.

Imperfect world with only imperfect solutions.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #412
  • Jul 28, 2011 11:56am Jul 28, 2011 11:56am
Quoting almo
Heh...ironically, so was I

Your chart isn't completed yet, so we can't really use that as an example just yet


Here is a recent trade that anyone using Ichimoku with a Kijunline Crossing the Kumo would have netted 300 pips, but would have left 190 pips (bottom + top of the trend) on the table, once price broke through the Kumo.

This is capturing 61% of the total move.
Hi almo,

With my secret and powerful exit strategy, I would have exited this long EUR/USD position 19 pips from the top. No I am not a genius, I just spent years and years looking at the charts for hours and hours trying to discover an optimal exit point for almost any type of trading system.

I think we all agree that the exit point is THE most important element of a trading system. In fact it has been proven that we can make money with purely random entry points IF we can define the optimal exit point after a buy or sell order has been generated.
  • #413
  • Jul 28, 2011 12:16pm Jul 28, 2011 12:16pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
Hi almo,

With my secret and powerful exit strategy, I would have exited this long EUR/USD position 19 pips from the top. No I am not a genius, I just spent years and years looking at the charts for hours and hours trying to discover an optimal exit point for almost any type of trading system.

I think we all agree that the exit point is THE most important element of a trading system. In fact it has been proven that we can make money with purely random entry points IF we can define the optimal exit point after a buy or sell order has been generated....
I do agree with you Mr. Breakout....the exit strategy is by far the most important, and overlooked piece of the puzzle.

Congrats on your personal exit strategy ....I hope to mine like that
  • #414
  • Jul 28, 2011 12:21pm Jul 28, 2011 12:21pm
Quoting Turveyd
Yes, definately the big players tweak there buy / sell programs the volumes they are trading change.
Whatever the "big boys" are doing, it will always be reflected in the price. And if our trading system is robust enough it will capture the move they created.

By the way, in the Forex market no big boy can manipulate the market for any significant period of time, not even a central bank or even a country for that matter.

Any intervention is always short lived and the price quickly resumes its original trend.
  • #415
  • Jul 28, 2011 1:01pm Jul 28, 2011 1:01pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
Hi almo,

With my secret and powerful exit strategy, I would have exited this long EUR/USD position 19 pips from the top. No I am not a genius, I just spent years and years looking at the charts for hours and hours trying to discover an optimal exit point for almost any type of trading system.

I think we all agree that the exit point is THE most important element of a trading system. In fact it has been proven that we can make money with purely random entry points IF we can define the optimal exit point after a buy or sell order has been generated....

Something we agree with finally, my entrys are down tight but exits are based on the random chance of being able to check the charts to see a exit, sometimes I see and it's the top, sometimes I leave a lot on, but hey work in progress.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #416
  • Jul 28, 2011 1:05pm Jul 28, 2011 1:05pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
Whatever the "big boys" are doing, it will always be reflected in the price. And if our trading system is robust enough it will capture the move they created.

By the way, in the Forex market no big boy can manipulate the market for any significant period of time, not even a central bank or even a country for that matter.

Any intervention is always short lived and the price quickly resumes its original trend.

Not talking about the mythical manipulation here, that's just an excuse for people to blame there losing trades on, the market will do what it will do.

Really not a believer in 1 system for all market conditions, I do not want to take the losses you likely have to sit through trusting your robust system till you get to good times again.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #417
  • Jul 28, 2011 2:01pm Jul 28, 2011 2:01pm
Quoting Turveyd

Really not a believer in 1 system for all market conditions
If you can find a system that automatically and quickly adapts to different market conditions (and there are ONLY 3 types of market conditions: Up, down and sideways), then I can assure you that you are set for life!

Quoting Turveyd
I do not want to take the losses you likely have to sit through trusting your robust system till you get to good times again.
Well you trade you risk, period. There is NO way to avoid losses and drawdowns, no way, no matter how good your system is. We just have to keep them small and manageable, that's the best we can do.
  • #418
  • Jul 28, 2011 3:26pm Jul 28, 2011 3:26pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
If you can find a system that automatically and quickly adapts to different market conditions (and there are ONLY 3 types of market conditions: Up, down and sideways), then I can assure you that you are set for life!



Well you trade you risk, period. There is NO way to avoid losses and drawdowns, no way, no matter how good your system is. We just have to keep them small and manageable, that's the best we can do.

Those are directions, not conditions, there are many more conditions, for instance we'll go into the summer doldrums soon, so lower volume, fast spikey moves needs to be treated differently.

I prefer to optomize on the fly and keep my losses to a Min, obviously risk / loss is part of the business we are in.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #419
  • Jul 28, 2011 3:50pm Jul 28, 2011 3:50pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
... With my secret and powerful exit strategy, I would have exited this long EUR/USD position 19 pips from the top. No I am not a genius, I just spent years and years looking at the charts for hours and hours trying to discover an optimal exit point for almost any type of trading system...
So you are saying that you would have sat thru an earlier 100 pip reversal but somehow within 19 pips of the top you knew the move was over?
  • #420
  • Jul 28, 2011 3:55pm Jul 28, 2011 3:55pm
Quoting jzw
So you are saying that you would have sat thru an earlier 100 pip reversal but somehow within 19 pips of the top you knew the move was over?

Yep, got to love it when they do that

Atleast I'm honest, I totally didn't see the run ( as in no internet ) on USDCHF yesterday, so didn't really let it ride back down to near my SL, before being lucky enough to get home and take near 6 pips from the top.

sometimes you get out on the nose, it's called random chance ( thicko's, think luck )
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
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