Price action is dumb, and you're lazy for thinking otherwise | Page 12 | Forex Factory

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Price action is dumb, and you're lazy for thinking otherwise

  • #221
  • Jul 26, 2011 4:50pm Jul 26, 2011 4:50pm
Someone made a Request , hope you don't mind ..superdezign

Just change the Period Multiplier to your choice : 2/3/4 days..
and it updates live ..

And with that , I bid you adieu ...
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Period_Converter_Opt.mq4   15 KB | 370 downloads
File Type: ex4 Period_Converter_Opt.ex4   9 KB | 315 downloads
  • #222
  • Jul 26, 2011 4:51pm Jul 26, 2011 4:51pm
Quoting smittens4212
No doubt, but some of us need some way to pass the off times at work... grain of salt, and all that
Yea, I was going to say the same, its good to just have some fun.
  • #223
  • Jul 26, 2011 4:52pm Jul 26, 2011 4:52pm
Quoting bbakker
Who is left in the pit these days? Old skool and time has moved on with electronic trading, trading at the touch of mouse button. It is very different from the open outcry of yesteryear!
But people's mind and their behavior have not!
Rather than shouting they are clicking!!
PS: what do you guys think why price reacts S/R zone as expected; at least pause in that area ?.
Why previous resistance becomes support and vice-versa?
Same for big round number or price derivatives like pivots
  • #224
  • Jul 26, 2011 4:56pm Jul 26, 2011 4:56pm
Quoting smittens4212
No doubt, but some of us need some way to pass the off times at work... grain of salt, and all that
I have an idea for you, Start a thread asking people to proof if sun will come out on the next day. Yeah we all know it will,.. but see if anyone can actually prove it.

That should be fun for you. lol
.
  • #225
  • Jul 26, 2011 4:58pm Jul 26, 2011 4:58pm
Quoting nasir.khan
I have an idea for you, Start a thread asking people to proof if sun will come out on Thursday. Yeah we all know it will,.. but see if anyone can actually prove it.

That should be fun for you. lol
.
All systems of divination, like music itself,work through patterns.
  • #226
  • Edited 7:09pm Jul 26, 2011 5:04pm | Edited 7:09pm
Quoting superdezign
Sarcasm, really classy.

I'm glad people can hit me up with valid counterpoint and not facetious rants that are neither fun to read nor prove anything but that they lack any real grounds in their trading and have to make crazy claims that they have built up some sort of wealth over 25 some odd years...

If you're going to act immature, please dont bother posting

I'm done wasting my time responding to people who

A.) lack the intelligence to hold a discussion that could prove to be beneficial
B.) are haters

Onto the next post...
Guy, you really need to loosen up and get over yourself!! You can't come on a discussion forum and attempt to make everyone out to be less intelligent than you and not get SOME amount of sarcasm!

I think you are missing the point of trading, and I am willing to bet that you are unsuccessful at it and this is why: simply because you can not grasp the idea that there are multiple ways to trade and be successful.... that there is not just one way to trade. Only when you have experience and confidence and success in trading do you come to that realization. That is why I don't teach people how to trade, I teach them how I trade!

Let's say that I can explain to you every nuance of my method to your satisfaction, so that you consider me one of the few to fully understand what I am doing....so what? My method becomes validated by someone I don't know that has nothing to do with my life.....so what? Does your approval make me a better trader? No. Does your okay give anyone on this forum the ability to make more money than before your stamp of approval was put on their method? No. So what is the point? Maybe these are some reasons your thread isn't taken as serious as you want it to be taken?!...

I am sorry if I offended you (personally, I thought my post fun to read) as I was just trying to lighten the mood on a thread that will never end because no one will ever be able to meet your expectations of "knowledge" of their system.

I wish you the best of luck in your endeavor, whatever that may be. Hopefully you will begin to focus on trading rather than belittling others, because if you are as intelligent as you make out, there is no reason why you, too, can't be successful.

Now I'm going to take my charts and go home....
  • #227
  • Jul 26, 2011 5:18pm Jul 26, 2011 5:18pm
Quoting superdezign
So, I am putting it out there... I don't want your systems, I dont want you to explain to me how you trade... I just want to know.. Do people get the logic behind their systems or do they just blinding follow the doji stars to the poor house?
You seem to include what other traders think or do as your business, so how is it going for you? Do you like it? Are you happy with it? How much profit you get from it? ;-)

And how much control you have over those other traders? Exactly ;-)

You seem annoyed, are you sure you want such type of business? OK then, be my guess ;-)
The tone of your words reflects the quality and result of your trading ;-)
  • #228
  • Jul 26, 2011 5:23pm Jul 26, 2011 5:23pm
Quoting moneymaker2
Guy, you really need to loosen up and get over yourself!! You can't come on a discussion forum and attempt to make everyone out to be less intelligent than you and not get SOME amount of sarcasm!

I think you are missing the point of trading, and I am willing to bet that you are unsuccessful at it and this is why: simply because you can not grasp the idea that there are multiple ways to trade and be successful.... that there is not just one way to trade. Only when you have experience and confidence and success in trading do you come to that realization....
Nice
All systems of divination, like music itself,work through patterns.
  • #229
  • Jul 26, 2011 6:44pm Jul 26, 2011 6:44pm
Quoting Razzle
Practically any of the popular indicators available do work perfectly well. I've been a member her for a while, and in all of that time, I have yet to read a single post from anyone who has even tried to objectively evaluate indicators in any kind of sensible fashion. Thats not a critisism of forex factory, its the same on practically any trading forum.

I see a whole bunch of people running around chasing their tails trying to make sense of random events without putting them into any contextual framework.

As noloqy so eloquently put it, "[b]TA...
Golden post, largely ignored in line with my previously postulated 'Razzle Effect'.
The breaking of a wave cannot explain the whole sea.
  • #230
  • Jul 26, 2011 7:22pm Jul 26, 2011 7:22pm
Well it got 4 pages before going completely down hill.. a new record?
  • #231
  • Jul 26, 2011 7:47pm Jul 26, 2011 7:47pm
Quoting Darkstar
If you would like to expand your question to "what value does price action have?" or "how can price action help you earn trading profits?" then I would gladly have a converstation with you.
Well if the OP is not going to ask, I sure will.
Good Trading
  • #232
  • Jul 26, 2011 7:47pm Jul 26, 2011 7:47pm
Quoting newyear498
Well it got 4 pages before going completely down hill.. a new record?
I know hey, just when I was enjoying a little civilised 'wit-vs-wit' discussion
  • #233
  • Jul 26, 2011 7:51pm Jul 26, 2011 7:51pm
Quoting aud
Well if the OP is not going to ask, I sure will.
add me to the vote kind sir
  • #234
  • Jul 26, 2011 8:03pm Jul 26, 2011 8:03pm
I have even more confidence in PA than I did when OP tried to prove my methods were flawed.

I am happy to see traders from different walks intermingling in one place, so thank you for making this thread it has been very entertaining.

This thread could have had such constructive content, had we been able to avoid the animosity and maintain a higher level of respect and courtesy.

To each his own
  • #235
  • Edited 8:45pm Jul 26, 2011 8:16pm | Edited 8:45pm
Not angry, just amused.

I already explained in my post why price order flow doesn't work in a decentralized market so I don't have any interest in reading another book on it. Instead of making a point purely on merits, you and others were held up as an endorsement of his product so I wasn't the one who dragged you into anything. I just asked you a simple question.


Quoting nasir.khan
Yeah i am!

But my point was that i dont send my P/L statement to darkstar at the end of the each day. So he recognized me by just the stuff i post once in a while on forums was a cheerful fact.

I dont know if you'r pissed on him for losing your account on his call last year or just by the fact that he is writing a book and not giving it off for free and ridiculously not keeping the announcement of the release as a secret to himself.

But please dont drag me into this.
.
  • #236
  • Jul 26, 2011 9:05pm Jul 26, 2011 9:05pm
Quoting smittens4212
Both traders would've gotten absolutely worked. The traders who went short got reversed & stopped almost immediately (fools rush in), and the traders who were long got stopped out on what would've been a good trade (and out!). Both groups of traders taking the opposite positions of each other... and yet neither made money. Sound familiar? When I started looking at trading this way, the 99% of traders lose money adage just made absolute perfect sense. When so many traders have been taught shoddy trading methods based on pretty patterns with no understanding...
I think the example you used is not well developed. As a PA and TA trader, I saw no short opportunities this week, and long paid off nicely if you were around last night. Just following trends, news, a patterns.

After a quick review of this thread, it seems to be another "I can't figure out how to do it so it doesn't work" threads. I would say, however, that this is an interesting way to draw out information (about a lot of things and people). Good luck everyone!
  • #237
  • Jul 26, 2011 10:00pm Jul 26, 2011 10:00pm
Quoting superdezign
Well
Every trader I have talked to who is a technical trader has been unable to answer this one simple question:

Why does you system work?

Counter point?... Go!
Hm, this is an excellent question. As for all the negative reactions, wouldn't we all love to hear why a particular TA system works? Sounds reasonable.

My answer to "Why my system works":
Markets are random over time, based on information that we cannot know in advance.
Thus what information should we base a buy/sell on?

In my opinion, the only TA information we have is the behavior of each market. If a market has a behavior, meaning it behaves in a way > 50% of the time, then we can use this to place our bets.
Examples of behaviors:
-If price goes up, does it "usually" keep going up? This is a trending pair.
-If price ranges, does it range long enough to make a profit.
-If price consolidates, does it breakout with enough movement to profit.

It is indeed gambling, I make a guess about the probability that each pair will behave in a predefined manner at some point (For example LG's Thread - When there is a long downtrend, and price consolidates, wait for a breakout in the direction of the trend).

You can disregard the pair as well, and make an assumption that a "breakout pair" such as the GU, will perhaps trend.

Based on the news of the day, we can get a pretty good idea how a particular pair will behave, and use corresponding TA in the moment to choose a buy/sell.

And go!
  • #238
  • Jul 26, 2011 10:46pm Jul 26, 2011 10:46pm
Quoting superdezign
Ok.. my turn to use the quote button...

No.. Price is a single variable.. and that is all price action uses...

Counterpoint.. go...
I lol'ed at this statement. It's either you're ignorant/misinformed or you're intently misleading people so you'll have more on your portfolio (hey, forex is a zero-sum game after all right?). Price action is a conglemeration of myriads of other variables that combine altogether to determine price in the market. If there are more buyers and sellers in a given time-frame, price rises. If the yuan rises against the dollar, then it has de-pegged the currency against the dollar. If America is a net importer of Australian goods, then the AUD rises in contrast to USD.

All these factors (and more) contribute to price action. Prices move up and down. Speculators who have no other resources and time to digest all the information tend to base their decisions based on price actions, since price itself tells the story of the market. The argument that you cannot speculate on price action (and past price) action is like saying that a pilot of a plane has to know how the joystick works so he can move the plane up and down to avoid that big mountain up ahead that seems to be getting bigger and bigger by the minute. What utter nonsense!
  • #239
  • Jul 27, 2011 12:30am Jul 27, 2011 12:30am
Nice thread with a lot of valid points. Here is what I think: in order to demonstrate if TA works we need to see if a market is efficient or inefficient. As you know, an efficient market is a market that reacts quickly and relatively accurately to new public information, which results in prices that are correct, on average, and prices accurately reflect all available information at any given time. According to the EMH, if a financial market is weakly efficient, technical analysis will be useless, but it is still possible to use fundamental analysis to seek out mispriced investments.

How we could see if TA works? We take EUR/USD currency pair during an interval let’s say 10 years. We determine a logarithmic function of EUR /USD during that time and also the first difference of the function. Then we apply all kinds of tests: Autocorrelation test, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, Phillips-Perron (P-P) test, Kurtosis test, Skewness test, Jarque-Bera test and others.

I’ve already done all those tests and I can assure you that most of them reject the hypothesis that EUR USD follows a random walk. Here are several conclusions:
-in the last 10 years there is a positive asymmetry on EUR/USD
-variables are not symmetrically distributed
-Jarque-Bera test rejects the null hypothesis of normality
- test statistic is less than the critical value
- EUR/USD series are uneven distributed
Conclusion? EUR/USD pair is inefficient, so investors will be able to use technical analysis and fundamental to take advantage of favorable risk/reward situations.
So yeah, TA does work..
  • #240
  • Jul 27, 2011 1:54am Jul 27, 2011 1:54am
Quoting PiptheRipper
Superdezign, you sure know how to upset the apple cart.
I'm surprised to see so many people in here get emotional about what's suppose to be a healthy discussion about a very valid point.

I've started out as a technical trader like most of us do. A few months ago, after spending countless hours/months testing technical tools, moving averages, S/R levels, PA bars and patterns (I gave up indicators after my first 3 months of learning forex) that could be used as a profitable system, I came to the conclusion that they don't work. So I thought to...

Nice post indeed.
A blank screen tomato market. Post #115
Excellent
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