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Price action is dumb, and you're lazy for thinking otherwise

  • #141
  • Jul 26, 2011 12:38pm Jul 26, 2011 12:38pm
"My book, "Order Flow Trading for Fun and Profit" is now in DONE! "
says it all.

Another failed trader looking for a way to cash in. If order flow had any relevancy to Forex, and if you were drawing serious revenue from it, the last thing in the world you'd be doing is hawking your wares on a trading website.

Anyone who witnessed your live trading debacle last year saw you had no edge and went down in flames.

More voodoo like VSA. How many people blew up thinking that had anything to do with being a trader too?

It's like a clown car here sometimes.


Quoting Darkstar
Were you talking about something like a H&S pattern, trend line, or S&R level, your argument would be 100% accurate. Failure of large numbers of participants to subscribe to a particular outcome will engender a failure of the suggested outcome to materialize because there is no underlying microstructure basis for the suggested outcome of those patterns to occur on its own.

[color=black][font=Verdana]Unfortunately (for your arguments anyway), pin bars (specifically)...
  • #142
  • Jul 26, 2011 12:42pm Jul 26, 2011 12:42pm
Quoting superdezign
But what it seems like (and please don't attack me on this one, because it's really just my opinion) everyone is just taking stabs in the dark, fooled by randomness, tricked into thinking they have an edge in a system that is mostly random..

I am not saying there aren't ways to exploit the market in a non-fundamentalist nature, but TA for the most part seems to be the push button method of trading that most people just drift to who do not want to put any real effort into designing a profitable trading method...
Your vast intellegence has made me see the light!! I am scrapping my method and starting over from scratch and by all I hold sacred, I vow to understand everything about everything concerning currency trading before I trade another pip!!

I am embarrassed that I used my previous method to make money rather than as a symbol of my knowledge of the very concepts of the indicators I was using. I realize now how shallow that was of me, to look at the wealth generated as the end results, rather than the understanding being my goal. I have been a shallow fool for nearly 25 years, and for that I am ashamed....

I humble myself before you in the hopes that you may find it in your heart to impart some of your understanding of the market to me to help me develop another method. The method need not be profitable, as money is the LEAST important concept of using a system....I want to fully explain everything about it to any stranger on any forum that asks. THAT should be the goal of all traders, not money.

Again, sir, I thank you for realignng my priorities. Thanks to you, I have a new trading paradigm.....one that is much less stressful, since profits are no longer a concern. I bid you Farewell, as I am off to begin my quest for knowledge!!

....now, is "babypips" one word or two??.....
  • #143
  • Jul 26, 2011 12:44pm Jul 26, 2011 12:44pm
Quoting coda
@superdezign




Sorry, don't want to get contra here, but the facts are different - from your very first post:


Tell me how that is not starting an argument? Calling a technique "dumb" in a thread title is not fighting talk? Lucky for you, all the folks on ff are either pussycats, or slow and don't realize when they are being insulted

And while we're here...




Why for? Doesn't work that way. The burden of proof is on those who make extraordinary claims. And, this is what you are doing when you say that you understand...
Never contradicted myself...

I have invalidated (or more so, have yet to be able to validate TA), which is why I put very little weight on TA...

However, I was hoping that someone could tell me why TA should work.

And not some rabbit out of the hat run down, or it works because it works, ect.

That is just being lazy.

I go to casinos all the time (I like poker), and when I walk past the roulette table I always hear people say

"I've been playing 20 and 21 all night, they've been super hot!!!"

The odds on what number will hit never change!!! But people still think that some numbers should appear more than others...

You dont play roulette, roulette plays you..

It's the same with trading. You have inherent odds built into the market that you play when you use TA, and people call themselves traders when they are just glorified gamblers.. I dont remember what post it was but someone in this thread actually used the word gambling when referring to his trades.. Good stuff..

I get the feeling every TA trader is playing mental gymnastics and tricking themselves into thinking that their systems exploit something that doesn't exist.

It's like a group of kids who grow up, but still think (spoiler alert: all young children please stop reading here) Santa Clause is real..

I hate that people are taking offense to me calling out TA... I was hoping people would come up with some decent evidence or proofs that TA has some grounds in markets, but the more I explore this subject I get increasing sad for I started trading using TA myself.

You know what they say... When you get in an argument with someone, the more mad they become the more correct you were in the first place...

Everyone that gets on this thread and instantly feels combative, well, you probably are the trader that keeps telling me "it works because it works"

Why? Because you don't want the truth!

So, if there is actually some sort of logic out there that holds up in TA, lets hear it...

And TA traders... Stop sipping on that hateraid, it's not classy

let's talk... Go
  • #144
  • Jul 26, 2011 12:44pm Jul 26, 2011 12:44pm
Great thread, best laugh I had in ages. You do it your way, I will do it my way and I couldn't give a monkey's how you do it. I really don't understand the reasoning for you starting this thread and to be honest, I could not give a shit.
  • #145
  • Jul 26, 2011 12:48pm Jul 26, 2011 12:48pm
Quoting Noloqy
I appreciate the post, especially as it is coming from you


I actually did some statistical research on certain indicators, including Welles Wilder's Relative Strength Index, and found that when RSI dropped below 70 (which is considered to be a sell signal,) the subsequent bar is expected to close higher* (on average 2.4 pips, disregarding bid-ask spread, tested on hourly EURUSD data.)

Oddly enough, in this case the indicator provides a signal in the opposite direction of the empirical finding(!). Draw conclusions as you like, but there...
That is an interesting result. But you didn't finsih the anlaysis. Does a down move actually kick in some number of bars later? What's the probability of an ensuing down move versus up move? That single bit of data you gave tells me that I might very well want ot SELL the close of that first bar!

I want you to now look at the 2nd bar compared to the signal bar. And then the next bar. Maybe check 10 bars in a row for me. Now if it turns out that none of the next 9 bars closes higher than the signal bar, AND one or more bars closes lower than the low of the signal bar, then you helped me decide that indeed, I want to SELL the close of the first bar. I have a high probability of getting MORE pips without drawdown.

DrDave
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #146
  • Jul 26, 2011 12:50pm Jul 26, 2011 12:50pm
Quoting moneymaker2
Your vast intellegence has made me see the light!! I am scrapping my method and starting over from scratch and by all I hold sacred, I vow to understand everything about everything concerning currency trading before I trade another pip!!

I am embarrassed that I used my previous method to make money rather than as a symbol of my knowledge of the very concepts of the indicators I was using. I realize now how shallow that was of me, to look at the wealth generated as the end results, rather than the understanding being my goal. I have been a shallow...
Sarcasm, really classy.

I'm glad people can hit me up with valid counterpoint and not facetious rants that are neither fun to read nor prove anything but that they lack any real grounds in their trading and have to make crazy claims that they have built up some sort of wealth over 25 some odd years...

If you're going to act immature, please dont bother posting

I'm done wasting my time responding to people who

A.) lack the intelligence to hold a discussion that could prove to be beneficial
B.) are haters

Onto the next post...
  • #147
  • Jul 26, 2011 12:50pm Jul 26, 2011 12:50pm
Quoting bbakker
Great thread, best laugh I had in ages. You do it your way, I will do it my way and I couldn't give a monkey's how you do it. I really don't understand the reasoning for you starting this thread and to be honest, I could not give a shit.
Good, dont waste your time posting in it then..
  • #148
  • Jul 26, 2011 12:51pm Jul 26, 2011 12:51pm
Quoting superdezign
Finally someone who knows how to pose a reasonable argument in a discussion

Hats off to you sir.

I see what you are saying with human psychology, but what part of human psychology are you focusing on and how does TA help exploit that?

(See how this works people? )
You've been here 4 years and that's what you wanted to hear? Seriously man there's been a million threads on the same crap already. Try babypips. com

Way to disappoint crowd ( thumbs down)

That's not hate raid that's just what it is.. 9 pages? Sad
Time hides Nothing
  • #149
  • Jul 26, 2011 12:52pm Jul 26, 2011 12:52pm
Quoting superdezign
I stopped reading this post after the second sentence. They all sound the same when it starts off that way...

Show me logic, that's all I want
Logic is proven on a premise . You have changed your initial premise a number of times from your first post. Your first post was ,at best, ambiguous in logical content. It has therefore become impossible to establish whether you are just looking for a fight or really want to see some logic.
I can understand why you need to be shown logic...

Step 1.. look up the word logic ...wiki will give you a broad appraisal.

by all means get back to me for Step 2..
All systems of divination, like music itself,work through patterns.
  • #150
  • Jul 26, 2011 12:52pm Jul 26, 2011 12:52pm
GOOD CHOSEN TOPIC might get u a lot of attention , will make u famous ...



---------------------------------------------

Publicity is publicity - Is there something right or wrong to it??
  • #151
  • Jul 26, 2011 12:57pm Jul 26, 2011 12:57pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
You've been here 4 years and that's what you wanted to hear? Seriously man there's been a million threads on the same crap already. Try babypips. com

Way to disappoint crowd ( thumbs down)

That's not hate raid that's just what it is.. 9 pages? Sad
I been a member for a while, but stopped caring about forums a while ago because people have so little to offer it's insane.

What's truly sad is everyone who has posted negative comments on this thread are more interested in calling me out, grabbing their pitchforks, and burning me at the stake then knowing the truth.

Whatever, you have fun on your witch hunt
  • #152
  • Jul 26, 2011 12:59pm Jul 26, 2011 12:59pm
Quoting bbakker
Great thread, best laugh I had in ages. You do it your way, I will do it my way and I couldn't give a monkey's how you do it. I really don't understand the reasoning for you starting this thread and to be honest, I could not give a shit.
rofl... yes.

For those who have nothing to prove, silence is usually sufficient. (and calling out the occasional charlatan is always good fun when the PA is sideways)

Threads like this usually are the product of deep seated disappointment after people have blown themselves up. Prove it, show me, look how smart I am, etc. because if I'm so smart how come I failed.

Textbook stuff.

If people want to share, they share, and they choose how much they're willing to share. But to start a thread that's passive aggressive and subtlely confrontational is not about sharing. It's an ego building exercise.
  • #153
  • Jul 26, 2011 1:02pm Jul 26, 2011 1:02pm
Quoting kaspopsicle
Logic is proven on a premise . You have changed your initial premise a number of times from your first post. Your first post was ,at best, ambiguous in logical content. It has therefore become impossible to establish whether you are just looking for a fight or really want to see some logic.
I can understand why you need to be shown logic...

Step 1.. look up the word logic ...wiki will give you a broad appraisal.

by all means get back to me for Step 2..
I have defined it. Actually I posted the definition in this thread.

And again, why are you wasting your time trying to break me down and call me out?

I just want to know if anyone can justify their buy and sell decision through some sort of logical principal..

So far... nope...

And by the way everyone keeps avoiding the subject at hand and going with

"Whatever, I make money, piss off" ect ect

The more I think TA traders are playing roulette...
  • #154
  • Jul 26, 2011 1:03pm Jul 26, 2011 1:03pm
Quoting superdezign
All I wanted to see was how many people actually understood what they are doing..
Does the result surprise you? Obviously most people who try their hand at trading have no idea what they are doing, and don't possess the motivation to get a proper grasp of the market or the tools they want to use to trade it. Look at the threads about blowing accounts, so many of those guys just picked up systems on a whim and tried trading them because someone showed that during one period, buying when this average price crossed this average price seemed to do pretty well.


Price action works because it is a visual representation of market behavior, which itself largely includes human psychology. Most retail traders are a drop in the bucket and can largely trade any way they want. As a small guy, when you consider that big money moves the market, and big money is going to make money, why what happens on the charts happens becomes a lot more clear. Take things like stop hunting, for example; the areas where it's likely to occur based on the balance of where recent trading (for example the Tokyo low on a day where the market is going to end up higher) has occurred (represented by the charts) and where the 'easy' hands are can be easy to spot-- not necessarily by a system with moving averages and stochs, but simply by looking at the chart. How many times do you read traders say they "just" got stopped out (and often times it's true, they got stopped out by anywhere from 1 to a handful of pips) before the market made a move that would've resulted in good profits? Fish in a barrel, for very specific, and repeated reasons. It's not like all these traders getting routinely stopped out even though they have the proper long/short bias is just a coincidence. These events, big money pushing the markets around, things of this nature show up on the charts. Anyone telling you that past price is irrelevant is dumb.

Quoting superdezign
I been a member for a while, but stopped caring about forums a while ago because people have so little to offer it's insane.
LOL. Says the guy who posted a thread about how great he and his system are but then didn't actually offer... anything, other than half-hearted barbs and petty arguments.

Quoting Lucky Duke
Threads like this usually are the product of deep seated disappointment after people have blown themselves up. Prove it, show me, look how smart I am, etc. because if I'm so smart how come I failed.

Textbook stuff.
They're my favorite. I like ones along the lines of "There's no skill in trading, only luck." It's always funny when someone's convinced that because they couldn't get something to work, no one can.
  • #155
  • Jul 26, 2011 1:04pm Jul 26, 2011 1:04pm
Quoting superdezign
I been a member for a while, but stopped caring about forums a while ago because people have so little to offer it's insane.

What's truly sad is everyone who has posted negative comments on this thread are more interested in calling me out, grabbing their pitchforks, and burning me at the stake then knowing the truth.

Whatever, you have fun on your witch hunt
you didn't reply to my constructive post bt you reply to my negative post. I won't get into the psychology of that but at least I can agree that forums are full of very little value and you proved my point

You see negative comments as those that don't aline with your own. Where's the value in that?
Time hides Nothing
  • #156
  • Jul 26, 2011 1:05pm Jul 26, 2011 1:05pm
Quoting Lucky Duke
rofl... yes.

For those who have nothing to prove, silence is usually sufficient. (and calling out the occasional charlatan is always good fun when the PA is sideways)

Threads like this usually are the product of deep seated disappointment after people have blown themselves up. Prove it, show me, look how smart I am, etc. because if I'm so smart how come I failed.

Textbook stuff.

If people want to share, they share, and they choose how much they're willing to share. But to start a thread that's passive aggressive and subtlely confrontational...
Hence why I have been silent on these forums for years.. Thanks for speaking up though

I did not come here boasting, saying that I make tons of money, or that my methods are near flawless..

I just said I can justify the decisions I make, and I could not with TA, which is why after a long time studying it, I near abandoned it.

So, being that most of the people on this forum are TA traders I thought I would stop in and see what people had to say, apparently I was wasting my time.
  • #157
  • Jul 26, 2011 1:11pm Jul 26, 2011 1:11pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
BTW I'm not at all offended just very bored...

To elaborate all I'm saying is that a pin bar (price action) to some might be selling/buying pressure, to another it may be central bank intervention, to another it may be the aftermath of a stop hunt, to another it may be profit taking, etc etc the list is endless.

Price action IS the market, it is the aftermath of the variables you speak of and might not have predictive powers to some but to others it may I don't really care. To me it's a stupid statement you make for the reasons above and in...
"... [PA] might not have predictive powers to some but to others it may I don't really care. To me it's a stupid statement you make for the reasons above and in a way I guess I agree with what you're saying (from the perspective I believe you're coming from) but it's foolish to assume that everyone thinks in the same logics as you in regards to the PA that you speak of."

This statement is kind of confusing, first you say it might work for some and others it may not, then you call me out, but say you see where I am coming from.. but that doesn't explain why price action should work, there is no logical argument in this statement

"All I'm saying is that one mans junk is another mans treasure"

One trader has to suffer a loss for another to realize a gain... so one of them is wrong...
  • #158
  • Jul 26, 2011 1:12pm Jul 26, 2011 1:12pm
Quoting superdezign
This statement is kind of confusing, first you say it might work for some and others it may not, but that doesn't explain why price action should work, there is no logical argument in this statement
Price action works because it is a visual representation of market behavior, which itself largely includes human psychology. Most retail traders are a drop in the bucket and can largely trade any way they want. As a small guy, when you consider that big money moves the market, and big money is going to make money, why what happens on the charts happens becomes a lot more clear. Take things like stop hunting, for example; the areas where it's likely to occur based on the balance of where recent trading (for example the Tokyo low on a day where the market is going to end up higher) has occurred (represented by the charts) and where the 'easy' hands are can be easy to spot-- not necessarily by a system with moving averages and stochs, but simply by looking at the chart. How many times do you read traders say they "just" got stopped out (and often times it's true, they got stopped out by anywhere from 1 to a handful of pips) before the market made a move that would've resulted in good profits? Fish in a barrel, for very specific, and repeated reasons. It's not like all these traders getting routinely stopped out even though they have the proper long/short bias is just a coincidence. These events, big money pushing the markets around, things of this nature show up on the charts.

Do you disagree? Whether that can be drilled down into a logical system is another question, I would guess that the best PA traders are largely discretionary and couldn't turn their trading in a A > B > C system.
  • #159
  • Jul 26, 2011 1:13pm Jul 26, 2011 1:13pm
Quoting superdezign
Finally someone who knows how to pose a reasonable argument in a discussion

Hats off to you sir.

I see what you are saying with human psychology, but what part of human psychology are you focusing on and how does TA help exploit that?

(See how this works people? )
Fear and greed, and group psihology. Because of that psihological fenomens every financial market overreacts on news, on forex huge leverage multiplies that reactions, and that we try to turn into profit.

Now you explain us why is FA investor/trader reads forex forum, or porhaps trades on forex?(that would be illogical, even stupid)
  • #160
  • Jul 26, 2011 1:13pm Jul 26, 2011 1:13pm
Well said

People often confuse, "An effect can not occur before it's cause", with, "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it."

Since we have no reliable signpost except the past for gauging future events, and neither do any other of the market participants, the tendency leans towards historical precedence blended with new data. Combining past learning alongside future projections usually has a better result than either does separately.


Quoting smittens4212
Does the result surprise you? Obviously most people who try their hand at trading have no idea what they are doing, and don't possess the motivation to get a proper grasp of the market or the tools they want to use to trade it. Look at the threads about blowing accounts, so many of those guys just picked up systems on a whim and tried trading them because someone showed that during one period, buying when this average price crossed this average price seemed to do pretty well.


Price action works because it is a visual representation of market...
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