Spider's Den

Morning all.
ADR has been made during Asian Session.
USDX pierced through its 74.00 support this morning. Last stand is at 73.50 (7th of June swing low).
I have a good resistance for Fiber at 1.4520, possibly a good place to go short with tight SL.

Good morning fellow traders!

Moin stulic!

Guten Morgen Vishal!



Tja ... dumm gelaufen gelle ? !

And I knew that your position was not that good. Therefore I did put those questions. As it is quite clear that a 250 Pips reward in planning and only 30 pips stop loss (specially when your positions even has not been filled) nearly never works.

Recap:

1.) A reward of 251 pips ahead in planning and a stop loss of only 30 pips is nearly a guarantee that you will be stopped out ...

2.) Placing a stop loss without any knowledge on which a level is based on and how precise and really reliable & valid calculations of levels can be or will be achieved - that's a great pity as wello ... maybe it is the greatest pity!

3.) Gator might be quite ok ... as his methods works for him ... maybe (I tend to believe him) ... and he did say don't follow me (to some guys - as far as I do remember) ... he is more or less a scalper. But that has been just now your decision not to go for scalping methods now. So why listen then to Gator specially in this case?

4.) Muddling up all those things - looking here and looking there - running around like our young friend PhAnTi' (whom I like - don't know why - maybe he's got some puppy license) and talking with nearly everybody about nothing and nowhere - that will inevitably lead to failures, fiaskos, flops and bad success.

And why? Well you will get confused by listening to too many 'so-called' self-appointed experts here. Specially then - when you have not passed a real education (life education which is only obtainable from very few real existing solid institutions - and those kind of laboratory tutorials do cost you much more than 10-times the amount of your account) by a real approved bank or a real approved educational institution for such purposes.

And it will prevent the real ones to give you a really useful hint! That's why ...

I have often mentioned here in forum ... guys - please don't expect too much from this ...

And I often wonder how stupid all those flies must be ... when they do say that they have learned a lot from some members here ... but at the same time those are "arm geblieben wie eine Kirchenmaus" ...

This is currently the nicest place to share ... and it is not a top secret that I ever did say T@ra is one of the rare ones here in forums ... he is a great benefit for this forum here ... no doubt ... and he is the most authentic and reliable member here ...

To vouch for him would not be the right answer ... and I am quite sure that T@rantula knows what I mean ... as I would have been forced then to vouch for him many times ...

I have tried to give some new and obviously unexperienced ones a chance ... instead of !

That's why I do have my kind of list there. And of course Vishal ... you are part of it.

None of the real ones will have much fun when he must read all that crap in all those forums here ... specially not in EU thread ...

So if you would have been able to answer my questions more precisely ... then something might have been making you re-think about it for a while.


Moreover ... you might have been recognized that I do not support those who I do not like. Therefore I only do very selective and only in PM mode.

Im wahren Leben sagt man auch: "Zeig mir Deine Freunde - und ich sage Dir wer Du bist" ...

Du hättest Dich evtl. vertrauensvoll an SirMcPip wenden können. Der ist recht überlegt in seiner Vorgehensweise nämlich. As he is a real position trader mainly ...

And obviously he is very well mannered and sophisticated guy as well!

So ok ... to come to a final conclusion ... I would like to suggest to think about it for a while. And please (!) clean up your buddy list a little bit ... otherwise you cannot expect to get those premium content materials from my side furthermore ...

So genug jetzt. Also auch heute kommt hier sonst nix von mir ... aus eben den genannten Gründen.



;-|

I am covering at 4500..retest now, either 4490-75 or another push higher.

S @ 1.4518, SL 1.453
Target 1 : 1.4475

These rejections at 4521 and swissie finding a strange little weak support spike, are not very convincing to me.

Thanks for your kind words Mercy. We are here to share the pips, and follow the big money.

Market is in turmoil now so pay close attention to MOMENTUM. Dont go hunting 100+ more pips in a single trade.

Now pay attention to 4500-4520 ( 4525 resistance).

H4 Bearish Bat pattern.

This pattern is like Gartley but with extended last leg. That extension happend during Asian session by trigering stops abowe 1.4450 and trigerring options barrier at 1.4500.
According to the harmonic pattern rules, the pattern id valid if the upside is limited to 1.4550. If this level gets broken, the next extension of up leg for thia pattern is 2.618 Fib @ 1.4719.

So far the best opportunity to sell is between 1.4526-1.4550 and there is a rumour that UK GDP number might be poor. If so, GBPUSD might drag down EURUSD, lets wait and see for now.

Of course, before putting an sell order, one must analyse the confirmation factors of this pattern.So far I have found:
1. Daily ATR is filled, and ATR Res comes at 1.4521.
2. EURUSD as You can see from chart is behaving very well harmonic.
3. Strong supply area of 1.4521 - 1.4574, the previous EURUSD rally ended with Doji candle on Daily chart, followed by sell off.
4. So far we got 7 H1 bull candles. Probability of 8th consecutive bull H1 candles is 0.2%. With H4 candles probability of 4th bull candle is 6.0% ( 5th bull candle is 3%).(But as we know this is Forex market, and the purpose of the Forex market is to separate You from Your money, so anything can happen, LOL )
5. We are close to 3rd SD on H4 timeframe and close to 2nd SD on Daily timeframe, witch comes at 1.4583.
6. 27.06.11 volume POC is at 1.4503, but this might be only my broker.
7. NO CONFIRMATION FROM PRICE ACTION SO FAR (no Dojis, Engulfs, Up-Thrusts, etc.)

This is it so far,
Hope it helps,

Seb

Hi T.
Yes, I see what Stulic and you mean.
I would have expected a stronger rejection of 1.4525.

I'll be happier (relatively speaking as I'm short) to see USDX breaking 1.74.
I note that Gold is going down atm, so this gives me confidence in my short.

I'll babysit my short until confident of further push south (i.e. below 1.445 if we reach it), otherwise I'll cover it.

Good...reasons clear and concise. Adding probabilities works so far

Id be very happy if I saw a retracement on daily.

yes 4465-4450, may load there heavily if we see it.

Covered at 1.449: +28 pips. Can't stay behind it atm.
I also have 1.455 as a very important level for further upmove.
Gold has just closed the gap to 1610. Will see how Fiber behaves from now.

Double top on h1.

Could be indeed good for shorts with tight stop. Again rinse and repeat.

Lets see the news first.

Eight hours candles ... ausnahmsweise mal zur Abwechselung ...

That means ... in the bigger picture ... we have got a clear strong bullish breakout pattern there ...

Daily trend potential => Bullish

3 Day trend potential => Bullish

Weekly trend potential => Bullish



Elliott projection => 1.4533 and most important break-point sits @ 1.4578/ 80 currently ...

We are counting up from 1.4015 zone currently ...

* you should know what a break-point is ...

Once that break-point has been taken out it could reach the sky ! ! !

Immediate support at 1.4460 and 1.4426/ 18 limits ...

Only a sudden cross of below 1.4426 and reaction to below 1.4394 could dampen this strong upside outlook ...

So next challenges are 1.4533/40 ... then 1.4578/80 limits ...

Hopp oder Top ...

It's up to you ...


Green pips ... to all those who deserves ...



palim palim



;-|

Hop hop I reckon

I've got an eye on cable, prelim. GDP out in minutes. Got one pending long @6325 sl 6308.

Bloody bastard didn't get filled

Bugger..

Cable usually moves directly on news. Either an immediate jump or fall.

Surely someone won and some1 lost on this..

I am flat.

This is a very intelligent thread......one of the best I have ever seen. I will be following you.

Thank you. Welcome!

I re-entered a short at 1.4495.
Gold appears to have bounced from 1607 level. Gold has now resumed its downmove.
USDX already very low so a good place for it to go up (?) - but I have 1.435 as ultimate support level.

I am weary that this looks like a bull flag on M5 (Sorry no chart - not on the right computer today).

My target is 1.4465 (LTL of M5 bullflag) - i will reassess there. My SL is now at BE.
I'm baby sitting this, especially possible bounce at 1.4475