Macroeconomic Analysis

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.



H! ALL [bad English, sorry ]

MACRO-ECONOMIC LAB.: Employment data

In the chart there is the r-spread between two unemployment rates: civilian 25 years and over vs. civilian 16 to 19 years.
Equity benchmarks for comparations (ema-format charts: prices replaced by exp.mov.aver.) are as follows:
♚ IOO (chart; data) for global equity;
♛ S&P1500 (chart; data) (for US equity).

This curve shows contrarian array vs. equity benchmarks, bacause the civilian segment more important (as GDP factor) is the first of ratio (r-spread).
The graphical patterns of this curve are as follows:
➊ curve-array has ascending pattern from '70 (in negative divergence vs. equity benchmarks);
➋ recent curve-array shows an important local (negative) divergence 2000/2007 (ascending lows) vs. equity benchmark tops (ascending);
➌ from '70, we can see an ascending rectangle in progress;
➍ from chart origin, we can se a bullish-break of main descending lines, with a preliminary start of a new long term bullish leg !!!
➎ the green area (Ⓒ-area) is a double-lows (2000/2007 about), validated in bullish status and with graphical target marked with green column (0.40/0.41 spread pt. critical level !!!);
➏ a second area (pink: Ⓑ-area) is in progress and shows a possible graphical target (only with curve above 0.36 spread pt.) of +0.16 pt. (a real negative mini-monster for equity benchmarks ???);
➐ megalithic yellow-area (Ⓐ) is theoretically-only, but Ⓑ-area linked !!!

The bearish real pivot of curve is the blue-area below to actual curve-level; if spread go below this area, the curve re-obtain an important bearish-array (positive for stocks-markets).
The bullish real pivot of curve is the turquoise-area above to actual curve-level; if spread go above this area, the curve re-start in the bullish-array, Ⓑ-area go in a validation status (negative for stocks-markets), Ⓒ-area complete the figure, and start a possible monster bull-leg of curve (very negative for stocks-markets).



Alert on macro-economy data.
☻/
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' €MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
I.M.O. by $@❣♆¥ ❤ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤
http://profile.ak.fbcdn.net/hprofile..._2727979_n.jpg

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.



H! ALL [bad English, sorry ]

Some charts about European Gov.Bond Yield Spreads


The following charts shows the yield-spread (d-format) between some European country vs. German Gov.Bond 10y.
Below there is the simple comparation between French/German 10y yield.

➊ IRELAND vs. GERMAN
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...%3AIND&img=png
➋ GREEK vs. GERMAN
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...%3AIND&img=png
➌ PORTUGAL vs. GERMAN
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...%3AIND&img=png
➍ ITALY vs. GERMAN
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...%3AIND&img=png


Alert on bond yield data.
☻/
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' €MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
I.M.O. by $@❣♆¥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀


➎ FRENCH vs. GERMAN(sx) & SPAIN vs. GERMAN (dx)

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.



H! ALL [bad English, sorry ]

MACRO-ECONOMIC LAB.: Employment data

A very interesting chart from an important financial site:
http://www.creditwritedowns.com/wp-c...prior-Peak.jpg



Alert on macro-economy data.
☻/
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' €MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
I.M.O. by $@❣♆¥ ❤ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤
http://profile.ak.fbcdn.net/hprofile..._2727979_n.jpg

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.



H! ALL [bad English, sorry ]

MACRO-ECONOMIC LAB.: Medicaid data

A very interesting chart from U.S. Healthcare 'Medicaid':
Link.1 -- Link.2
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-4_KH6Hw5Vw...Projection.png



Alert on macro-economy data.
☻/
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' €MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
I.M.O. by $@❣♆¥ ❤ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤
http://profile.ak.fbcdn.net/hprofile..._2727979_n.jpg

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.



H! ALL [bad English, sorry ]

Some notes on megalithic graphical structures of Equity Benchmarks.

☒ S&P100 - monthly-caldles format.
* Global array of prices, as we can see from chart-start, is in bullish status (see blue-lines).
* From 2000 the chart has a bearish-array with two descending lows and two descending tops; all this price-action is inside an ' astonishingly wonder-full ' red-rectangle.
* Price behaviour 2000(top) to 2009(low) shows a recovery toward 0.382FIB in 2010 and 0.500FIB in 2011.
* Alert on the wonder set-up between upper red-lines and 0.618FIB as possible new ascending target.
* The price structure post-2000 is an A/B/C post 1987/2000 (or 1994/2000) sky-rocket ('C' as 0.618/0.750 of previous 'A') ??? Or the price-structure post-2007 tops is a tri-legs 'C' ('C' leg n.1 as 2007→2009; 'C' leg n.2 as 2009→ Diamond-line; 'C' leg n.3 bearish, with start 2011/2012) ???
* With prices above (consistently and persistently) red-rectangle, there will be an important buy flow with a 'graphically' possible sky-rocket of S&P100.
* Only below 2010 lows (0.382FIB) there will be a re-start of 2000-bear.

☑ S&P500 - two envelopes-format (note-➊).
* Global array of prices, as we can see from chart-start, is in bullish status (see red bold continuous line between main lows '90 & 2009).
* From 2000 the chart has a side-bearish array with two little ascending tops and two descending (2003/2009) lows; all this price-action shows an irregular rectangle, different to S&P100 'a.w.f.' red-rectangle.
☑ S&P500 - monthly-candles format.
* Price behaviour 1997/1998(lows) until now shows a gigantic Diamond structure (see ascending blue and descending red lines) in closing in 2025/2026 about.
* Price behaviour 2007(top) to 2009(low) shows a recovery toward 0.500FIB in 2010 and 0.618FIB in 2011 (not reported on the charts); now prices are well above 0.618FIBS (target on the upper Diamond line ???). Also FIBS retacements from 1974-lows/2007tops (not reported on the charts) shows actual prices well above the upper main levels !!!
* The price structure 2007/2009 is compatible with an zig-zag 'A'wave ??? 2009/2011(2?) is the 'B'wave (Diamond target ???).
* Only below price-area between 2010-lows (coincident with two FIBS level: from 1974-lows and from 2007-tops), and mar./apr.2001 histeric lows, there will be a re-start of bear.
* The beak of the gigantic Diamond structure is very important in order to release new directional-energy over the long-term.

☑ NYSE Composite - ema-format (note-➋).
This chart is added in order to complete the U.S. Equity benchmarks (not Nasdaq).



PREVIOUS CHART
S&P100 --- S&P100 --- S&P500 --- NYSE Comp. --- FTSE100 --- DAX --- CAC40 --- IBEX35 --- SMI.



Alert on long term structure of Equity benchmarks.
☻/
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' Stock&Baccalà-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
I.M.O. by $@❣♆¥ ❤ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤
http://profile.ak.fbcdn.net/hprofile..._2727979_n.jpg
note-➊:
two-envelopes method - short-term envelopes in blu vs. long-term envelopes in red; price replaced by daily ema-5.
note-➋:
ema-format - price replaced by daily exp.mov.aver.

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.



H! ALL [bad English, sorry ]

Some notes on megalithic graphical structures of Equity Benchmarks.

☒ D.J. WORLD STOCKS INDEX - monthly-caldles format.
* Global array of prices vs. ema, as we can see from chart-start, have a bullish status.
* From 2007 the chart has a bearish-array but with a low in 2009 > of previous 2002/2003-lows.
* Price behaviour 2002/2003(lows) to 2007(top) shows a recovery toward 0.500FIB in 2010 and 0.618FIB in 2011; now the prices are above this last level.
* Alert on the wonder dinamic set-up between ema-knot vs. 0.618FIB as possible price-base.
* Slow-Stock. shows secondary bearish pattern, with curves above 50-line; Slow-Volat. shows a top in divergence vs. underlying 2009-lows, but also vs. 2010/2009 array (not a good sign for the long term view).

☒ D.J. WORLD STOCKS INDEX - ema-format (note-➊).
* The binary level 256/262 is in according to previous dinamic set-up between ema-knot/0.618FIB.
* Above this multiple set-up the benchmark go toward chart-tops.
* Below (consistently and persistently) this important multiple set-up there will be a confirmed secondary berish pattern toward the pivotal-area 0.500FIBS/2010-lows/2002-ascending-binary; below this pivotal structure (consistently and persistently) there will be a turn in primary bearish status of benchmark.

See also IOO-ETF structure.



Alert on long term structure of Equity benchmarks.
☻/
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' Stock&Baccalà-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
I.M.O. by $@❣♆¥ ❤ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤
http://profile.ak.fbcdn.net/hprofile..._2727979_n.jpg
note-➊:
ema-format - price replaced by daily exp.mov.aver.

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.



H! ALL [bad English, sorry ]

Some graphical notes on waves structure (personal first view) on S&P500 from 2009 lows.

In blue-rectangles there are the markers for impulsive legs.
In red-rectangle (one) the is the only corrective leg.
With '?' there is the new in-progress leg.

This ?-leg may be a corrective leg inside (n.4?: see smal blue-markers) the II impulsive wave (sterted from 2010-lows) ???

Prices below 1130$ about (top of first leg of II impulsive wave) delete this view.
Prices above 2011 tops (and not below 1130$), confirmed this view.

Possible alternative wave-counts.

Alert level: 1230/1170 about (= 2-tops 2010 / low-nov.2010).



Alert on long term structure of Equity benchmarks.
☻/
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' Stock&Baccalà-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
I.M.O. by $@❣♆¥ ❤ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤
http://profile.ak.fbcdn.net/hprofile..._5581997_n.jpg

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.



H! ALL [bad English, sorry ]

Some graphical notes on Italian Stocks-Market.

The main graphical notes are as follows.
*All benchmarks used shows a very important binary horizontal-level on 2001/2003 lows; now the prices are below this important level (descending full-test; price above for MSCI/IT.ETF) and this is a bad sign for stability of bull started in 2009.
*Prices are in full descending-test of main ascending lines, from 2009-lows, a bad sign for stability of bull started in 2009.
*Prices are very distant to 50%FIB (as bold-yellow line with diamond), a bad sign for stability of bull started in 2009.
*For mid-short term descending channels (in red), in the event were the prices go above, Indexes shall not go above 50%FIB, a bad sign for stability of bull started in 2009.
*The structural-array of FTSE-MIB is very bearish because of descending main tops and lows, in divergence vs. MSCI/IT.-ETF. This different behaviour is present from 2001 and it is very impressive. MSCI/IT.-ETF and FTSE-MIB shows an important under-performances vs. FTSE All World Index and DJ Europe Stocks Index.

The Italian Stocks-Market shows important structural bearish signs, both in long term and in mid-short term.

With different magnitude, the evident bearish-array of Italian Stocks is present also in other European Country.




Alert on long term structure of Equity benchmarks.
☻/
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' Stock&Baccalà-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
I.M.O. by $@❣♆¥ ❤ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.



H! ALL [bad English, sorry ]

Some graphical notes on some Venture Capitalist Indicators.

These indicators have been proposed by Dr. Mark V. Cannice in order to study the opinions of professional venture capitalists, in their estimation of the highgrowth venture entrepreneurial environment in the geographical or industrial area of interest, over the next 6-18 months.

In short-term (1y-charts) we can see a bullish array for the US-Index but a bearish status for Chinese-Index. If China is the real train of world growth (with India, Brazil, etc.), this is not a good graphical sign for the underliyng stocks-benchmarks (examples from ETF: ACWI, DGT, IOO, VT).

In mid.-long term the Silicon (=U.S.) Indicator shows the following graphical key points:
◀ bullish-break of the main descending (violet) rectangle;
◀ full-ascending test of main horizontal (pink-area) level;
◀ prices inside an ascending rectangle 2009-start (orange).
The bullish status is complete and it is very probable a test of previous top (black-bold line).
Below the orange channel there will be a secondary bearish leg for indicator; but only inside the violet channel will re-start the primary bear.
This indicator shows anticipatory behaviour vs. underlying stocks-market (global benchmarks or U.S.).

In mid.-long term the Chinese Indicator shows the following graphical key points:
◀ price (except 2008) shows a side-array, with an important double-top 2006/2010;
◀ prices are in full-descending test of main horizontal/central (pink-area) levels;
◀ in 2009 we can see the bullish-break of the main descending (black) rectangle;
Indicator is in side-array status.
If prices go above the black descending-line from 2010-top there will be an important bullish leg, with break of 2-top !!!
If prices go below pink/central-area indicator go toward 2008-lows (and below ???).
This indicator shows anticipatory behaviour vs. underlying stocks-market (global benchmarks or Chinese stocks-indexes).



Alert on Financial Stress Evaluators.
☻/
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' Stock&Baccalà-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
I.M.O. by $@❣♆¥ ❤ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤
http://profile.ak.fbcdn.net/hprofile..._5581997_n.jpg

1Y spot view of Silicon and China Venture Capitalist Sentiment Indicators
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...%3AIND&img=pnghttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...%3AIND&img=png

Complete view of Silicon and China Venture Capitalist Sentiment Indicators

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.



H! ALL [bad English, sorry ]

MACRO-ECONOMY LAB.: Venture Capitalist Indicators.

The curve of CPI (➊) is important for the evaluation of inflation pressure in U.S.
But also important are some spreads (d-format: ➋) between some CPI sub-indexes (ⓐ, ⓑ, ⓒ) vs. CPI All Urban Consumers (➊).

d-Spread curves above 0-line have a positive impact on economy and on stocks-market.
Now the 3 d-spreads are in full-ascending tests of this level.
Also important are the slopes of d-spreads; positive slopes (ascending-array of curves) have positive impact on stocks-market.
Now the slopes are positive and in recovery-array from the dangerous lows of 2011 (➌).

➊ https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...ate=2011-07-15
➋ https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...graph_id=48584
➌ https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...-16_2011-07-16


Alert on Macro-data.
☻/
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' MammaRhòCarmine-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
I.M.O. by $@❣♆¥ ❤ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤
http://profile.ak.fbcdn.net/hprofile..._5581997_n.jpg

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.



H! ALL [bad English, sorry ]

MACRO-ECONOMY LAB.: US P.P. Index spread.
The r-spread between Producer Price Index of Finished Goods vs. Producer Price Index of Finished Goods Less Food & Energy shows some point of interest on the chart.
-) Top of curve are showed during negative economic phases;
-) There is an hard difference in slope behaviour of curve during 1980/2000 vs. 2000/2007.
-) Now curves is well above previous historical tops ('80).
-) The giant berish-leg of 2008/2009 is, in long term view, a simple recovery (in bearish-status) of long term bullish trend (started in 2000 and structured in 5 legs).
-) Now the curve is in hard bullish array in mid-term trend.

The slope of increase of P.P. index for all finished goods is >> of P.P.I. less 'nrg&food.

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...graph_id=48453


Alert on Macro-data.
☻/
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' MammaRhòCarmine-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
I.M.O. by $@❣♆¥ ❤ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤
http://profile.ak.fbcdn.net/hprofile..._5581997_n.jpg

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.



H! ALL [bad English, sorry ]

MACRO-ECONOMY LAB.: US P.P. Index vs. C.P. Index spreads.
The following r-spreads (chart I) are:
red curve - Producer Price Index All Commodities vs. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers All Items;
blue curve - Producer Price Index of Finished Goods Less Food & Energy vs. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers of All Items Less Food & Energy.
An important note is that the curve-array (red) of 1932 ..., is very similar to 2001 ... until now.
Moreover in 2004/2005 the red-curve > blue-curve (chart II).
The chart III is the one-curve indicator of the previous chart I, in order to view a single line (red vs. blue) between the two spreads red and blue curves.

I - https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...graph_id=48615
II - https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...-17_2011-07-17
III - https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...-17_2011-07-17


Alert on Macro-data.
☻/
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' MammaRhòCarmine-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
I.M.O. by $@❣♆¥ ❤ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤
http://profile.ak.fbcdn.net/hprofile..._5581997_n.jpg

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.



H! ALL [bad English, sorry ]

MACRO-ECONOMY LAB.: ENERGY (OILs) CHARTS.

For differents OIL prices notWTI
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...graph_id=46168
For differents OIL prices notWTI in one-curve array
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...graph_id=46169
WTI
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...graph_id=48696
Six differents OIL in one-curve array
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...graph_id=46171


Alert on 'nrg' Macro-data.
☻/
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' MammaRhòCarmine-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
I.M.O. by $@❣♆¥ ❤ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.



H! ALL [bad English, sorry ]

MACRO-ECONOMY LAB.: ZEW-ZEPHYR INDICATOR.
The ZEW-ZEPHYR M&A-Index is calculated every month by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) and Bureau van Dijk (BvD) and has been tracking the development of mergers of acquisitions completed worldwide since the beginning of 2000. The ZEW-ZEPHYR M&A-Index is based on the number and volume of global mergers and acquisitions recorded in the BvD’s ZEPHYR database. The index uses the monthly rates of change of both volume and value of M&A transactions, combined and adjusted for volatility and inflation. As a result, the index offers a much more precise picture of the level of worldwide M&A activities than a mere observation of the transaction volume. The reason for this is that a firm's value on the stock exchange has a strong influence on the transaction value, particularly as many acquisitions are paid for by an exchange of shares. Consequently, stock prices could have a disproportionately strong influence on how the development of M&A transactions is assessed. If, however, the volume is spread over a larger number of transactions within one month, the value of the M&A-Index increases even though the aggregate transaction value remains unchanged.
This indicator (original chart source) shows an important bearish-array from 2006/2008 topping-area, as:
✔ 12mo. mov.aver. (> of prices)
✔ prices iside of main (bold) red rectangle (square-marked);
✔ prices inside of secondary (thin) red-ractangle (circle-marked);
✔ important double lows (circled-areas), now in full descending-test (in astonishingly wonder-full 3-lows with 2002/2004 levels !!!).
The break of 2-lows may have important bearish impact on underlying financial benchmark.
A recovery of 12mo. mov.aver. is the first step in order to break the bearish-array of Z.Z.-indicator.



Alert on Macro-data.
☻/
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' MammaRhòCarmine-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
I.M.O. by $@❣♆¥ ❤ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.



H! ALL [bad English, sorry ]

MACRO-ECONOMY LAB.: some sincretic indicators.
The following indicators are special because they try to add different macroeconomic curves in order to obtain only one (chart III is S&P500 as stocks benchmark).
✔ The chart-I is a special version of Misery Indicator, with fusion (in Natural-Log. format) of Civilian Unemployment Rate, Average Duration of Unemployment, and Consumer Price Index (All Items: 100 = value of 1982-1984) for All Urban Consumers (both Seas.Ad. and not Seas.Ad.).
The break of top of '60 decade caused a target at +2 pt. above the top-level, of two curves (a great increase as percentage).
The new '80 decade top has been broken during 2009 sky-rocket of indicators, and now the two curves are still ascending.
The next target is +2pt. from previous ('80 decade) top ???
The indicator behaviours is about contrarian to the main trend of stocks-market.
✔ The chart-II is a special version of previous chart (in linear format): Civilian Unemployment Rate, Average Duration of Unemployment, and Consumer Price Index (% change of year ago) for All Urban Consumers (Seas.Ad. only).
The break of triple historical tops ('70/'80 decade) caused a target at +20 pt. above this 3-tops level.
The structure of 1999/2011 curve is impulsive ? There are only n.1 (bullish), n.2 (bearish), n.3 (bullish) main legs ? Leg n.4 (bearish; bullish both for macro-economy and stocks) and leg n.5 (bullish; bearish both for macro-economy and stocks) there will be in the future ?
The indicator behaviours is about contrarian to the main trend of stocks-market.
✔ The chart-IV is a special version of chart-I (in linear format): Civilian Unemployment Rate, Average Duration of Unemployment, Consumer Price Index (% change of year ago) for All Urban Consumers (Seas.Ad. only), Median Number of Months on Sales House-Market, and S&P Case-Shiller 10-City.
The curve shows a monster bullish-array, well above previous '90 decade tops, and with completed target (dotted yellow-line) of basal channel (circled-marked) structure.
The indicator behaviours is about contrarian to the main trend of stocks-market.
✔ The chart-V is a different algorithm of chart-I (in linear format): Civilian Unemployment Rate, Average Duration of Unemployment, Consumer Price Index (% change of year ago) for All Urban Consumers (Seas.Ad. only)
The curve shows a strong bullish array with price in-line vs. historical tops ('80 decade).
The indicator behaviours is about contrarian to the main trend of stocks-market.

Notes.
These indicators shows a very dangerous set of data for the U.S. consumers.
If these curves do not stop the growth phase, can cause an epic sinergic-collapse of consumptions.

Alert on Macro-data.
☻/
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' MyseriaCane-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
I.M.O. by $@❣♆¥ ❤ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...graph_id=28507
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...graph_id=49392

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.



H! ALL [bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]

Previous charts: SwF-Index -- Au$/SwF -- Cd$/SwF -- €/SwF -- GBP/SwF



Alert on Forex-War, ➌.☢.
☻/
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' MyseriaCane-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
I.M.O. by $@❣♆¥ ❤ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.



H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some chart-notes about Swiss Franc.
Previous charts.



Alert on Forex-War, ➌.☢.
☻/
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' Forestiero-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
I.M.O. by $@❣♆¥ ❤ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.



H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some notes about Breadth Indicators
The chart is the Absolute Breadth Indicator in monthly frame (FreeStockChat source) and ema-format.
The long-term curve shows an ascending array with primary and secondary bottoms on blue binary-lines.
The yellow horizontal binary is a pivot-zone where there are the market-turns (see in 2001, 2002, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2008, and now), and now the curve is above this zone (negative sign).
Moreover there is a strong divergence 2010 vs. 2011 between Indicator-lows vs. underlying tops as S&P1500 or Wilshire-5k (negative sign).
There are some signs for a real alert of the bull-trend stability of underlying.



Alert on breadth & sentiment data.
☻/
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' Spesso&Lungo-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
I.M.O. by $@❣♆¥ ❤ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.



H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some notes about Breadth Indicators
The chart is the High Low Logic Indicator in monthly frame (FreeStockChat source) and ema-format (indicator in phase vs. U.S. stocks-market, as S&P1500, or Wilshire-5k).

The indicator is in a quiet phase, but it comes from an important low in 2011 < of 2010-low (negative sign for underlying).
Also tops are in divergence-array vs. underlying (2010 > 2011 for indicator but < 2011 for underlying).
Prices above the binary 1.50 is an important and structural breadth-element, in order to push U.S. stocks-market at new tops.
Tuned on the divergences signaled.


Alert on breadth & sentiment data.
☻/
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' Spesso&Dhuro-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
I.M.O. by $@❣♆¥ ❤ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.



H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some chart-notes about Swiss Franc.
Previous charts.



Alert on Forex-War, ➌.☢.
☻/
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' Forestiero-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
I.M.O. by $@❣♆¥ ❤ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤