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Good returns realistic by trading with higher time frames?

  • #41
  • Jul 21, 2011 9:21pm Jul 21, 2011 9:21pm
BTW my spelling of Probability is all jacked up in these screens LOL! excuse the spell check-less typing.
"The market doesn't beat them, they beat themselves" - J. Livermore
  • #42
  • Jul 21, 2011 11:09pm Jul 21, 2011 11:09pm
Quoting dice action
If Moody's says they are AAA rated, doesn't that mean they are??
have you been on the moon during the financial crisis?

All the CDO's were rated AAA, but in fact they were far from that.
  • #43
  • Jul 21, 2011 11:12pm Jul 21, 2011 11:12pm
Quoting dice action
YOU're right, I missed a zero. I meant six-fold.

What does "unlevered" mean? You mean unleveraged?

To me, any reference to anything other than returns ON YOUR CAPITAL, is misleading and meaningless. My opinion.

My question was if it was feasible to make on average 10% a month. That is about 200% a year, not 9, and that is the end of that.
I would much rather make 9 percent by just investing in stock funds, than spend a whole year trading for no zero extra return, not saying stock funds ALWAYS return that, but you get the idea.
wrong, it's 313% a year, not 200%. Don't forget that you will compound your monthly returns.
  • #44
  • Jul 21, 2011 11:37pm Jul 21, 2011 11:37pm
To me, any reference to anything other than returns ON YOUR CAPITAL, is misleading and meaningless. My opinion.

Absolutely right, try to pay your rent with your "leveraged profits", itīs all about the money in your pocket..
10% a month is feasible , you would become (if consistent), one of the best traders in history.
And by the way, 95% of players loose (consistently), including most Funds...Big winner is always the broker, consistently.

My question was if it was feasible to make on average 10% a month. That is about 200% a year, not 9, and that is the end of that.
I would much rather make 9 percent by just investing in stock funds, than spend a whole year trading for no zero extra return, not saying stock funds ALWAYS return that, but you get the idea.[/quote]
  • #45
  • Jul 22, 2011 12:29am Jul 22, 2011 12:29am
dice,

if you're able to do 10% a month for 15 years, you'll be one of the best traders in the world.

everything is possible...
  • #46
  • Jul 22, 2011 12:31am Jul 22, 2011 12:31am
Most professionals are not trading for the highest absolute return% they are trading for low monthly volatility. They could probably make higher returns but that is what their institutional clients demand. Most clients are not going to invest with people who have 20+% drawdowns.

The best CTAs in a given year typically return over 100% but you hardly ever see the same CTAs at the top of the list for consecutive years.

You can find performance figures in various places and make up your own mind

http://www.barclayhedge.com/research...b/discret.html

http://www.docstoc.com/docs/83669414...-30th-june-_2_

PS. Just because your max historic drawdown was 40% doesn't mean that you could not have a future drawdown that is much bigger.
  • #47
  • Jul 22, 2011 6:11am Jul 22, 2011 6:11am
Quoting Custos
have you been on the moon during the financial crisis?

All the CDO's were rated AAA, but in fact they were far from that.
That was a joke in case you missed it...

Quoting Custos
wrong, it's 313% a year, not 200%. Don't forget that you will compound your monthly returns.
No, it's about 200% annual gain, as I said.
  • #48
  • Jul 22, 2011 6:58am Jul 22, 2011 6:58am
Quoting cuchuflito
To me, any reference to anything other than returns ON YOUR CAPITAL, is misleading and meaningless. My opinion.

Absolutely right, try to pay your rent with your "leveraged profits", itīs all about the money in your pocket..
10% a month is feasible , you would become (if consistent), one of the best traders in history.
And by the way, 95% of players loose (consistently), including most Funds...Big winner is always the broker, consistently.

My question was if it was feasible to make on average 10% a month. That is about 200% a year, not 9, and...
Part of my day job involves determining levered vs unlevered returns, so knowing both is important. My trading leverage is about 12x, my avg monthly return is 9% and average drawdown is 20%. So yes, my cash in the pocket gain is 9% of my account size per month, and that's been consistent over two years.

Now if 20% drawdown is too much (or to use my max, 40%), then you can cut my leverage in half to 6x and see that I'd get a 4.5% return per month with a 10% average drawdown. Or use no leverage at all and get a 0.75% monthly return for a 1.7% drawdown. The unlevered return figure lets you see the relative risk/reward of a system, and then you can decide if you want to use more or less leverage for a higher return or lower risk.
  • #49
  • Jul 22, 2011 7:11am Jul 22, 2011 7:11am
Quoting jzw
Most professionals are not trading for the highest absolute return% they are trading for low monthly volatility. They could probably make higher returns but that is what their institutional clients demand. Most clients are not going to invest with people who have 20+% drawdowns.

The best CTAs in a given year typically return over 100% but you hardly ever see the same CTAs at the top of the list for consecutive years.

You can find performance figures in various places and make up your own mind

http://www.barclayhedge.com/research...b/discret.html

http://www.docstoc.com/docs/83669414...-30th-june-_2_

PS....
40% was my max, but I made adjustments that I believe correct for that downturn. Since then I've maxed out at 25%. Forex is my risk money though, so I'm OK with the volatility. I wouldn't tolerate this in my retirement account.

Also, to forestall some of the criticism (10% for 15 years...), no amount of exponential growth is sustainable long term if it larger than the growth of the world's markets. World GDP growth is forecast at little over 3% p.a. so any fund growing fast than that will *eventually* absorb the entire world market (it may take 100s of years!). A small account with a max used leverage of 12x can easily grow to seven figures or larger before growth becomes unsustainable, so that gives the sub-$10,000 accounts at least 6 years of growth.

15 years? lol. Not possible. Accounts in the 8 figure range would be difficult for retail forex brokers to service, I think.
  • #50
  • Jul 22, 2011 9:02am Jul 22, 2011 9:02am
Quoting dice action
That was a joke in case you missed it...



No, it's about 200% annual gain, as I said.
right, I forgot to substract the starting amount.
  • #51
  • Last Post: Oct 10, 2011 1:22pm Oct 10, 2011 1:22pm
Having targets or goals works well in many aspects of your life but are surefire losers in trading. When you focus on a target, you do the wrong things.

You will try to push trades and lose, so you push harder, and lose faster, and keep trading more and more when you are losing to try to reach your target. When you are on a losing streak, you should be trading less (or not at all for at least a few sessions).

Opposite happens when you are winning. You will look and see you hit your target 10 minutes into trading so you stop trading because YOU ALREADY HIT YOUR TARGET! If you are on a hot streak, you should be trading more, not less. When you are on a winning streak and can't lose, you can double, or triple your account very very fast.

And when the hot streak ends and you start to lose every trade even after double and triple checking your system to make sure this trade does not turn into yet another stinker, you back off again, take a few days off. Hide the spreadsheet that tells you you can turn 1,000 into 1,000,000 and come back later. Your hot streak will return again.

Targets will kill your career as an independent trader.
Ecclesiastes 1:9
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