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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #26,441
  • Jul 14, 2011 8:14am Jul 14, 2011 8:14am
Quoting GEfx

I am short the E/$ at 1.4193 and now have no more time to chat. Protecting my entry price. Good trading everyone!

Now, I am long e/u 4168,

Scorpions emerge and has turned me into pig. Shhhhh.... Like FTI said to me the other day, be careful and don't let the mind slip. Bad day...

It is okay to lose money, we can make back, I almost lose the balls.
  • #26,442
  • Jul 14, 2011 8:36am Jul 14, 2011 8:36am
Quoting Jok
Now, I am long e/u 4168,

Scorpions emerge and has turned me into pig. Shhhhh.... Like FTI said to me the other day, be careful and don't let the mind slip. Bad day...

It is okay to lose money, we can make back, I almost lose the balls.
Hi Jok,
I am square at 4163 (watch it go to 4133 -- lol!) and probably done for the day. Good luck with your long position, it has to square up those recent big candles sometime. Watch those scorpions!
  • #26,443
  • Jul 14, 2011 8:55am Jul 14, 2011 8:55am
Quoting GEfx
Hi Jok,
I am square at 4163 (watch it go to 4133 -- lol!) and probably done for the day. Good luck with your long position, it has to square up those recent big candles sometime. Watch those scorpions!

Thanks GEfx,

Did very mild attack (11 pips, LOL) and squared, just to get the balls back in place. I stop for the day too, better go catch my scorpion and lock it in the cage and start with fresh mind tomorrow.

Have a nice day.
  • #26,444
  • Jul 14, 2011 9:09am Jul 14, 2011 9:09am
Quoting GEfx
As for who has and has not read the thread, it is obvious to us when someone has or has not read the thread, based on the quality of your questions.
this is the same reason i have not posted a question as i know i have not finished reading the first 200 posts yet - still working on it

this is my first post here so hi and thanks to fti and all.

based on my experience with senior members like dongsky and mamood, i found that this is a very friendly community that fti had created.

just like all newcomers, i want quick answers, but now i know, patience is the key.
by re-reading the thread, i'm finding answers to my newbie questions.
yup, there's no shortcuts.
but with this thread, i believe, learning curve will be shorter.

stay thirsty my friends..
When the internal struggle ends, everything becomes easy - Mr. Douglas
  • #26,445
  • Jul 14, 2011 9:21am Jul 14, 2011 9:21am
Quoting lananpips
this is the same reason i have not posted a question as i know i have not finished reading the first 200 posts yet - still working on it

this is my first post here so hi and thanks to fti and all.

based on my experience with senior members like dongsky and mamood, i found that this is a very friendly community that fti had created.

just like all newcomers, i want quick answers, but now i know, patience is the key.
by re-reading the thread, i'm finding answers to my newbie questions.
yup, there's no shortcuts.
but with this thread,...
Welcome and looking forward to your participation here. Best wishes.
  • #26,446
  • Jul 14, 2011 11:14am Jul 14, 2011 11:14am
Quoting lananpips
this is the same reason i have not posted a question as i know i have not finished reading the first 200 posts yet - still working on it

this is my first post here so hi and thanks to fti and all.

based on my experience with senior members like dongsky and mamood, i found that this is a very friendly community that fti had created.

just like all newcomers, i want quick answers, but now i know, patience is the key.
by re-reading the thread, i'm finding answers to my newbie questions.
yup, there's no shortcuts.
but with this thread,...
Your last line reminded me of this one

Inserted Video
  • #26,447
  • Jul 14, 2011 11:57am Jul 14, 2011 11:57am
Quoting Jok
Thanks GEfx,

Did very mild attack (11 pips, LOL) and squared, just to get the balls back in place. I stop for the day too, better go catch my scorpion and lock it in the cage and start with fresh mind tomorrow.

Have a nice day.
Hey Jok,
It finally got to 4133, but not with me in it -- lol. Now let's see what happens from here. Your north trade may shape up again later, will have to keep an eye on it, Good trading!
  • #26,448
  • Jul 14, 2011 12:21pm Jul 14, 2011 12:21pm
Quoting il brigante
The fact that you say that rigidity kills is very rigid.

Who is talking about rules?

Listen, at the end of the day, if you make money you are a good trader, if not you can talk about how good trader you are if that makes you happy.

I know how to trade and I can show it to you anytime if you want, but I am not sure about the others.

Cheers
Il Brigante
it's cool!
Remember: "You are as good as your last transaction"

  • #26,449
  • Jul 14, 2011 4:20pm Jul 14, 2011 4:20pm
Ok...after some research on some proud trader ready for the meat house, I realized that... some people are still doing trendlines, fractals, fibo, basket of currencies, RSI, pivot, and other TA things.
-What will it take for them to realize that we are in a non-linear system and all predictions are against us.
In particular, with the knowledge that NOW we are playing against supercomputers that are doing forex trading!
Darn! I programmed supercomputer myself!-
It reminds me of my time when I did likewise.
I feel very sad
I am so darn emotional? Why?
I care very much about those that is trying to make a living with currency trading. Egor is so involved in their trade that they are blind to the actually of their own myth making abilities.
-But that is a topic to talk to my psychological counseling wife.-

Oh well..Now we have a very interesting PA situation...
A black bar after a huge white in the daily chart...clearly profit taking... Even though the news says that Ben says this and Ben says that, etc...
I still believe that the big traders think that uncle Ben will keep dumping the dollar....
So until my lady say otherwise, I am gambling north.

Why am I writing this?
I passed the whole day upset with some trader.
It bothers me that somebody could touch my holy mindset.
Why? I tried to be helpful and the trader thought otherwise.
You know that I am very analytical and normally I do not let go of anything until the it shows its character.
Cheers,
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #26,450
  • Jul 14, 2011 4:32pm Jul 14, 2011 4:32pm
Quoting luSan
Ok...after some research on some proud trader ready for the meat house, I realized that... some people are still doing trendlines, fractals, fibo, basket of currencies, RSI, pivot, and other TA things.
-What will it take for them to realize that we are in a non-linear system and all predictions are against us.
In particular, with the knowledge that NOW we are playing against supercomputers that are doing forex trading!-
It reminds me of my time when I did likewise.
I feel very sad
I am so darn emotional? Why?
I care very much about those...
It's not the fibo, fractal, trendline etc... that's the problem, it's the mindset.,,, but I like the non-linear thought.

Supercomputer's? got to understand them and adjust your MO.

Check the emotions and empathy, trouble makers come along and want to stir the pot, I'd say it's limited to just a few with multi-user-names, easiest way is to ignore them after they become argumentative, if you have trouble with this be careful in the markets, cause' they much tougher to deal with.

Interesting PA situation? Big Black Bar after Big White Bar, you sure it's profit taking??? maybe Big White Bar was profit taking and readjustment after big black break????? Or maybe just taking a breather after lots of sprinting from V bottom????? Don't know, but be careful on being so sure, ay?

Cheers!
  • #26,451
  • Jul 14, 2011 4:38pm Jul 14, 2011 4:38pm
Quoting auxesis
Interesting PA situation? Big Black Bar after Big White Bar, you sure it's profit taking???
maybe Big White Bar was profit taking and readjustment after big black break????? Or maybe just taking a breather after lots of sprinting from V bottom?????
Thanks, aurexis, I did not see it this way...it could be that the big white bar is a big profit taking...something to think about.
Are you seeing the upsided H&S formation?
It is in th 1H.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #26,452
  • Jul 14, 2011 4:55pm Jul 14, 2011 4:55pm
Quoting luSan
Thanks, aurexis, I did not see it this way...it could be that the big white bar is a big profit taking...something to think about.
Are you seeing the upsided H&S formation?
It is in th 1H.
Luis,

IMHO(only) I think many folks were looking at the break of a larger consolidation triangle seen on the 4hr/dailies, if so then this run back would be a retest and attempt to reload.... possibility only. You would think another leg south is possible, but it won't surprise me to see this take out the 4575 high. Jacson101 mentioned an assassin or broadening pattern, it could happen.

Euro and Dollar both suffer from the same problem, no one wants them... Euro is doomed by Piggs, they can't solve the problem as other countries don't want other members problems. Greenback's been falling as Heli keeps his promise to print our way to obscurity, only problem is US House Republicans, if they try to stop him, Moody Cuts Aaa and Dollar tanks the same.

This pair is being violently driven by speculation and whispers, so trade accordingly.
  • #26,453
  • Jul 14, 2011 5:01pm Jul 14, 2011 5:01pm
Quoting auxesis
Luis,

IMHO(only) I think many folks were looking at the break of a larger consolidation triangle seen on the 4hr/dailies, if so then this run back would be a retest and attempt to reload.... possibility only.

Euro and Dollar both suffer from the same problem, no one wants them... Euro is doomed by Piggs, they can't solve the problem as other countries don't want other members problems. Greenback's been falling as Heli keeps his promise to print our way to obscurity, only problem is US House Republicans, if they try to stop him, Moody Cuts Aaa...
Agree.
I trade as you said..accordingly....very nimble...ready to swiftly change directions...With open eyes and not married to any position..tonight or tomorrow we will know, I believe, about trust in the dollar or the Euro.
Either way...I will follow.
Cheers.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #26,454
  • Jul 14, 2011 5:02pm Jul 14, 2011 5:02pm
Eurusd, I am taking my profit +135 pips, risked 17. Not bad, could have been better.

Fti, not disrespect for you whatsoever.

Cheers
Il Brigante
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.jpg Size: 64 KB
  • #26,455
  • Jul 14, 2011 6:30pm Jul 14, 2011 6:30pm
Quoting luSan
Ok...after some research on some proud trader ready for the meat house, I realized that... some people are still doing trendlines, fractals, fibo, basket of currencies, RSI, pivot, and other TA things.
-What will it take for them to realize that we are in a non-linear system and all predictions are against us.
In particular, with the knowledge that NOW we are playing against supercomputers that are doing forex trading!
Darn! I programmed supercomputer myself!-
It reminds me of my time when I did likewise.
I feel very sad
I am so darn emotional?...
Luis, focus on your mind set and get it back. It's really the most important thing in trading. Forget the approach used by others (don't look at my stuff it will really make you angry) and do your own trading thing.

This thread is worth defending against trouble makers, but I think I will step aside and let fti handle things when he returns, if that is what he wants to do. I try to be helpful and sometime step all over myself, but at least I tried.

It's been good trading as the US and Europe try to destroy themselves -- lol. Stay nimble.
  • #26,456
  • Jul 14, 2011 6:32pm Jul 14, 2011 6:32pm
Quoting auxesis
It's not the fibo, fractal, trendline etc... that's the problem, it's the mindset.,,, but I like the non-linear thought.

Supercomputer's? got to understand them and adjust your MO.

Check the emotions and empathy, trouble makers come along and want to stir the pot, I'd say it's limited to just a few with multi-user-names, easiest way is to ignore them after they become argumentative, if you have trouble with this be careful in the markets, cause' they much tougher to deal with.

Interesting PA situation? Big Black Bar after Big White Bar, you...
Auxesis, you continue to be the smartest guy on FF. Trade well!
  • #26,457
  • Jul 14, 2011 6:54pm Jul 14, 2011 6:54pm
Black Octoberfest tonight on wall street.
no Beers, only blood.
Us will be dowdgraded?
Will be?
what optimism.

Anyone watching bond yields?
Maybe tunnelling to the earths core.
  • #26,458
  • Jul 14, 2011 6:54pm Jul 14, 2011 6:54pm
Quoting GEfx
Auxesis, you continue to be the smartest guy on FF. Trade well!
I was hoping for most hansom, but as long as I don't get the Miss Congeniality award..............

One of my mentors used to say if the Girls don't find ya hansom they better find ya handy.

Good trades back at ya, see what happens tomorrow, looks like the Hatfield's and McCoys are about to strike a debt ceiling deal. could be interesting.

regards
  • #26,459
  • Edited 7:16pm Jul 14, 2011 7:02pm | Edited 7:16pm
was just wondering if us treasury would realign to borrow at double digit rates?


someone bettre wake up the IMF, BIG customer at the door.
Hope they not start with austerity measures requirements.
1st asset to be sold.........Helicoptor.
oops wrong word........privatised.
  • #26,460
  • Edited 7:31pm Jul 14, 2011 7:21pm | Edited 7:31pm
Quoting fti
was just wondering if us treasury would realign to borrow at double digit rates?


someone bettre wake up the IMF, BIG customer at the door.
Hope they not start with austerity measures requirements.
1st asset to be sold.........Helicoptor.
oops wrong word........privatised.
Ok let's see Moody's cuts, interest rates rocket, Heli poops diaper as plans all like diaper full of it, dollar tanks, Noda poops pants as Yen busts out bottom spike, Yen goes all in, Euro Spikes, Trichett poops pants.......

or

Budget deal gets passed, only small cuts, small taxes, everyone saves face, nothing really happens and everyone takes orders from the boss who looks like a PANDA

As precious metal trading gets a leverage haircut tomorrow and all will be forced to unwind remaining positions to avoid huge margin calls, all is orchestrated to spike prices and offer nice exits, forcing markets to extreme levels for repositioning, just a conspiracy thought

Truly think your on the mark, longer view, many out there that would like to drop the greenback standard
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