Attachments: My GBPJPY trade journal

My GBPJPY trade journal

#1,121
Jul 13, 2011 3:02pm Jul 13, 2011 3:02pm

alter
| Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Trader | 450 Posts

Quoting pipEASY

Disliked

Good evening all

It saddens me to notice that the thread that teaches so much on profitable trading and in areas of momentum and mass traders sentiment is gathering dust.

I have read countless threads on this forum but nothing beats the amount of information Greg places in each of his diagram. Clearly not enough readers are taking the necessary effort to dissect and analysis each of his pics.

Graeme

Ignored

I think its because its not very clear what he is doing. By selling after price already fell and buying after price rose, I usually end up buying tops and selling bottoms(even if I call it momentum). Plus a lot of indicators just makes it more diffucult to digest informations required for profitable trading. Greg just has a gift , its not about the method.

#1,122
Jul 14, 2011 3:07am Jul 14, 2011 3:07am

travpip
| Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Trader | 367 Posts

Quoting alter

Disliked

I think its because its not very clear what he is doing. By selling after price already fell and buying after price rose, I usually end up buying tops and selling bottoms(even if I call it momentum). Plus a lot of indicators just makes it more diffucult to digest informations required for profitable trading. Greg just has a gift , its not about the method.

Ignored

Not that i can say for sure,

but if Greg has a gift - then that gift is patience and discipline - combined with 7,8,9+ years dedicated chart - time.

I think it is clear what he does, and the reason he does it, and the reason he is successful, it's cause he does the same thing over and over again - and that all comes back to the 100pips trending momemtum strategy

#1,123
Edited 6:05am Jul 16, 2011 4:04am | Edited 6:05am

gregwilson
Joined Jan 2006 | Status: Greg Wilson | 734 Posts

Hi,

In response to the last few posts from traders, I go along with Travpip's comments about my approach to trading, i.e., it comes closest to understanding it...

...I would never claim that I have an innate gift for trading, far from it. It took years to get to a point where I was realizing relatively consistent winning trades. I'm not suggesting that is the case with everyone, although confess I don't understand how it could be otherwise. Or maybe I'm just a slow learner.

I started on the road to successful trades when I stopped listening to all the "experts" know-how. Some of it was good, but much was confusing and contraditory to me. The experts were just as apt to be wrong (many times) as they were to be right. Relying on them was killing my stake...

...Which is why I will not show my trade/chart upon entry (with rare exceptions): I don't want the burden of advising someone on a trade--because I could be wrong...

...Besides, eventually we all have to find and learn a trading strategy that we can trust. It will be influenced by individual style and tempermant. You may never trade my strategy exactly or as well as I do because your temperant and style are different than mine. I will not trade your own strategy as well as you do for the same reasons...

...So it dawned on me that if I was going to make it in this game, I was going to have to hunker down and learn the elements of trading so thoroughly that I would never again be dependent on someone else's analysis, predictions, "expert advice" because, again--they could be wrong.

Something else I did at the time was to look at my trading approach to see if I was doing anything right consistently (this was around five years ago), hang onto that and drop my bad habits (e.g., scalping; relying on experts for trade entries, analysis; impatience, etc., etc.)

One of the most important skills was gradually learning how to "read" real-time charts. This is where the value of practice, practice, practice came in. If I didn't understand what was happening on the charts when I was looking at/reading them, I'd better not even think about placing a trade.

Setups: I look at a laundry list of charts simultaneously: 5 min, 15 or 30 min, 1 hr, 4 hr, daily, weekly. The first, the most important thing I'm interested is: "Are we in a trend?" (Trend = higher highs/higher lows; lower highs, lower lows). My definition of an intraday trend is the potential for 100 pips moves or more. I start by looking at the weekly chart: "Is it in a trend, bull or bear?" I move to the daily chart, hoping the candles are trending and in the same direction. Then the 4 hr, 1 hr chart, with the same question...

...Larger time frame charts are the most important to me when looking for a trend. The more time frames that confirm the trend the better.

(Note: I look at the fundamentals calendar for the week. I particularly take note of USD and GBP upcoming news because I trade GBPJPY exclusively, but I don't give a lot of weight to the news because I'm a technical trader. If I see a technical setup on the charts I give that the most weight irregardless of the news. The only time I take a little more care are the Non-farm Payroll week and the FOMC data, because trading often tends to slow way down until the data comes in. If it is a slow trading week (NFP or FOMC week), I'm ready to pass on trading that week altogether --unless I spot a very, very compelling trade setup ripe for the picking...

...When setups are are obvious or compelling, I know a lot of other traders are seeing the same thing and are ready to jump in. To restate: When I see/trade a setup and capture the better part of one hundred pips, I'm not the only one doing so, i.e., I'm not the only one pushing the candles up or down the trend. Thousands of other traders are doing the same thing, seeing the same move, trading the same move. It's not that we are all gifted. It is because we have taken the time to learn what we are doing and now we know what to look for...

...I want to be trading at the time the trading crowd kick-starts momentum/volatility up or down the trend. When placing a trade, I try to avoid times of the 24 hour trading day where momentum is slow or dead in the water. A potential setup has a higher degree of my attention pre-London or London Open, i.e., the time when the markets start to move.

I note where price is in relation to the CPP, above or below, and how far above or below?

If the market is in a trend, do I have a 100 pips opportunity from the current pivot price area to the next pivot (or other support or resistance target?).

Where is stochastics on various time frames? What is MACD doing?

One of the reasons I don't trade as often as I used to is that I don't have to. Thanks be that I no longer feel a nasty itch to trade every day. It is equally important to learn when not to trade...

...I know when it's time to trade because in some way the setup jumps out at me in an obvious way. I see this almost the moment I bring up the charts. From there I proceed with my analysis, which is a confirmation of the setup I saw at first glance...

...If all systems are go, I check the time of day. Am I getting into the trade too early? Are we at the pre-London or London Open?

What is my target? Do I have at least 100 pips potential from entry to target?

Where are stochastics, oversold, overbought? On which time frames? Where is MACD? Where is price in relation to the pivots? Are we near a channel top or bottom? Which time frame(s)? Is it important? Are we near a previous day high or low? Is it important?

I don't place a stop loss initially for the reason that price may yo-yo up and down before finally taking off for real. After 20-30 pips (sometimes less if I'm feeling uncomfortable) I place a stop loss, and I've also placed a 100 pips stop profit limit--and walk away. I don't want to sit at the computer for hours on end, staring at the screen and the jerky candlesticks, thinking and worrying about the trade, falling into a head trip and doing something stupid. If I don't have confidence in the trade, why did I make it in the first place?

I won't be able to answer most of the questions I might have generated. Maybe I've said something here that will give somebody something to add to their toolbox. In the end success or failure will be up to the individual, and not up to me or some other "expert." And that's just the way it is, and should be.

Thank you all for the recent posts and comments.

Cheers,
Greg

#1,124
Jul 16, 2011 11:50am Jul 16, 2011 11:50am

alter
| Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Trader | 450 Posts

Quoting travpip

Disliked

Not that i can say for sure,

but if Greg has a gift - then that gift is patience and discipline - combined with 7,8,9+ years dedicated chart - time.

I think it is clear what he does, and the reason he does it, and the reason he is successful, it's cause he does the same thing over and over again - and that all comes back to the 100pips trending momemtum strategy

Ignored

I was just answering pipeasy as to why there is no more discussion in this thread , even though there is a lot of usefull information. The reason is that there is not much to talk about. Gregs style is unique , and I doubt anybody else would be able to trade like this. Of course there is a lot of momentum trader , but the difference is that Greg has talent. You will never be Usain Bolt without talen. Of course any success requires hard work, there are thousands that do, but still, they fail to beat him. In the trading its not that much different, it is not only about 10 000 hours, if you lack talent and luck it is still pretty big chance that you fail despite your effort.

#1,125
Edited 7:31pm Jul 16, 2011 3:56pm | Edited 7:31pm

gregwilson
Joined Jan 2006 | Status: Greg Wilson | 734 Posts

Spotting the trend is first and foremost. You will not always find the same trend (or any trend at all) on every time frame. You may have a downtrend on the weekly chart, a consolidation on the daily chart, an uptrend on the 1 hr and 4 hr chart. Should you trade anyway? Depends.

You can't lose your stake if you haven't used it. It's best to stand aside and wait for the obvious setup to come to you. What is obvious to me is a +100 pips opportunity, which I call an "intraday trend." I may or may not see this potential setup on all time frames, lucky when I do. I may only see a trend setting up on the 1 hr, 4 hr time frames, possibly already in progress, possibly setting up near the London Open, for example.

When I see a setup on at least two consecutive charts (1 hr, 4 hr, etc.), from there I do the additional analysis for confirmation, i.e., studying all the indicators on all time frames. The more confirmation I have for a potential trade, the more confident I become. No luck has been involved in the process so far, just cold analysis.

Does luck play a part? Sure, I suppose, luck kicks in when I pull the trigger and things go as anticipated. Or so many traders claim. I don't consider it luck. Luck is wishing and hoping, praying, having a hunch, rolling the dice, rubbing the rabbit's foot. When a trade goes my way I consider it a confirmation of my analysis via the Trending Momentum strategy I use. I trust it because it's proven itself time and time again. When I spot a setup, I know my risk to reward ratio, I don't hope or wish.

Because most traders lose at this game, so it is said, forex is nothing more than gambling. For the consistent loser it is gambling (okay, "bad luck"). For those who have found a strategy that works it's a craft/skill. If you are one of the losers, you are more likely to say (to yourself and others), that a trader's consistent wins are a matter of luck (where was lady luck in my early trading years?). If you are consistently winning (more wins than losses) you are likely to say (to yourself and others), that winning is more a matter of skill.

***

Note: My strategy and self-imposed rules apply to day trading in particular. The strategy doesn't work for scalping or position trading (scalpers give more weight to smaller time frames, position traders give more weight to longer time frames). The 100 pips strategy is designed for "intraday" trends (more weight to 1 hr, 4 hr charts).

Greg

#1,126
Jul 18, 2011 10:27pm Jul 18, 2011 10:27pm

superveloce
| Joined Jan 2011 | Status: Trader | 11 Posts

Thanks Greg for the very valuable information.

#1,127
Jul 19, 2011 9:03am Jul 19, 2011 9:03am

mhenry
| Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Trader | 17 Posts

Gergwilson,

really like your thread,and i'm trying to applying it into my daily tradings.

one question for you:

according to the posts, sometimes you would get out of market when the price is getting slow. what do you mean by "slow"--less trades being made in a certain time or price being trapped in a narrow area?

thank you.
henry

#1,128
Edited 10:42am Jul 20, 2011 3:19am | Edited 10:42am

gregwilson
Joined Jan 2006 | Status: Greg Wilson | 734 Posts

Hi mhenry;

If I'm in a trade and to the good 30 or 40 pips I usually won't close out until I've reached my target, which is 100 pips. I will close the trade prior to target if I sense that momentum is slowing or hesitating near the target or short of it, to my mind indicating that the trend may be playing out and about to reverse. I'm quite happy to capture the "easy pips" between my entry and the target, i.e., the fat of the move where momentum is strongest. Momentum thins, becomes jerky (nervous) at tops and bottoms. My decision to close is influenced by stochastics readings at the time, i.e., is it oversold or overbought, on which time frame(s)? Is price nearing a channel top or bottom? Is price currently at or near the previous day high or low, etc.

Generally I find price tries to hit the target (a support (downtrend) or resistance point (uptrend)). The more pivots that have been breached, e.g., price continues through R1, R2, and is on the way to R3, the greater the chance of a reversal. If I've captured 100 pips prior to S2 or S3, I will seriously consider closing the trade. I may stay in a little longer if momentum is still compelling.

I'm wary of trading during the slow summer months because there is not as much consistent action (trending intraday momentum), which can cause jerky candle movements that will rattle me if I'm hanging out at the computer for hours on end. I prefer strong, continuous momentum in the directon of my target where the candles reach the target relatively quickly, in a hour or three, vs. eight, ten or more hours.

If the market is very slow and I've committed to a trade, I will walk away from the computer after +20-30 pips. At that point I've placed my stop loss; profit limit stop has already been placed. The worse scenario is that I get stopped out at breakeven entry. This happens somewhat frequently and I usually throw in the towel for the session, unless I feel sure price still plans to take off for real toward my target. Otherwise, the more trades I make in a given 24 hr. session, the higher the chance I have of suffering a loss.

The markets are in a sideways mode much of the time. There is no trending momentum in consolidation/narrow range areas, (where neither bulls or bears are winning). As far as I'm concerned, the only good thing about consolidation areas is that there is a lot of pent up energy waiting to explode. The longer the consolidation period, the more pent up energy, the longer the ensuing trend. The pros are waiting for the break out.

Trending momentum can be quickly determined by the the speed of a move, and also the length of candles. If consecutive candles have been long vs. short or stubby (consolidation areas), that is momentum. I attempt to trade into momentum, even to anticipate it. If the candles have been and are short and stubby, I try to stand aside.

Of course the length of candles will vary depending on the time frame you are studying, and so I have to study them all and draw my conclusions. The more bull candles across consecutive time frames, if that is the direction of the trend, the better. At least two consecutive long bull candles on the 4 hr and daily charts would get my attention, more so if stochastics is up, MACD is up, the 5 min and 8 eight minute moving average are up, and the price is has been trending or is tracking above the daily CPP. Just about an ideal scenario, and all I need to see is momentum to confirm it.

Again, before I trade, I study all time frames, particularly those serving intraday trend opportunities, i.e., 1 hr, 4r, daily. Do they confirm or contradict the longer weekly overall trend, and is it important. For example, maybe there's a 100 pips opportunity to the upside on the 4 hr and daily chart even though the overall weekly trend has been heading down.

Opportunities appear at areas of support and resistance; channel tops or bottoms, recent highs or lows, pivot points, off moving averages that have flattened out during consoldiation periods and are now heading down or up and crossing over each other.

Will price break through the consolidation area and head up or down? I look at stochastics and MACD for clues, the time of day, and just maybe an upcoming news event (although I don't give much weight to news because I'm a technical trader looking for obvious technical setups). Maybe an upcoming news event will confirm a setup that I'm seeing.

Somewhere in my analysis I determine if I have a clear 100 pips target fom entry (resistance ceiling or support floor). If not, I don't trade (always exceptions, usually compelling momentum). If so, and if all the ducks are lined up, I feel pretty confident about the reward/risk.

Regards,
Greg

#1,129
Jul 20, 2011 9:13am Jul 20, 2011 9:13am

mhenry
| Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Trader | 17 Posts

thank you for so much input.

pls keep posting here for your followers like me.

best regards
henry

#1,130
Jul 20, 2011 5:12pm Jul 20, 2011 5:12pm

forexnetworth
| Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Market Profile + Order Flow = Edge. | 92 Posts

Solid Gold... Well said. The voice of reason and experience has spoken. Thanks Greg for the invaluable words of wisdom shared here.

Quoting gregwilson

Disliked

Hi,

In response to the last few posts from traders, I go along with Travpip's comments about my approach to trading, i.e., it comes closest to understanding it...

[b][i][color=#0000ff]...I would never claim that I have an innate gift for trading, far from it. It took years to get to a point where I was realizing relatively consistent winning trades. I'm not suggesting that is the case with everyone, although confess I don't understand how it could be otherwise. Or maybe...

Ignored

#1,131
Aug 17, 2011 7:07am Aug 17, 2011 7:07am

Razor_trader
Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Getting closer to ...... | 1,787 Posts

Quoting gregwilson

Disliked

Hi,

In response to the last few posts from traders, I go along with Travpip's comments about my approach to trading, i.e., it comes closest to understanding it...

[b][i][color=#0000ff]...I would never claim that I have an innate gift for trading, far from it. It took years to get to a point where I was realizing relatively consistent winning trades. I'm not suggesting that is the case with everyone, although confess I don't understand how it could be otherwise. Or maybe...

Ignored

Greg, its good to see you back. I figure the quiet period of the thread was you enjoying your summer.

New traders can learn alot, I know I have and still do at the discipline to trading that you have. All too common today it is traders over trading, over analysing 5-10 differents pairs or markets and chopping and changing. Find something that works, practise practise and practise and knuckle down on a market. Results come. You can either over trade yourself into a hole or just barely above ground or you can take the trades when the time is right.

For me the biggest thing I have learnt over the years of reading this thread has been that 1 market can offer you, if your patient, opportunties to generate great trades. I went from over 30 different pairs including Commodities, currencies and index's to now the AUD/USD (home pair) and the EUR/USD (great spread and good movements). I will, on occasion, trade the USD/CHF which has been a very solid trend for a long time now.

It is great to see you back and look forward to seeing more profitable trades come out of this fine thread.

Take Care

RT

#1,132
Aug 26, 2011 9:49am Aug 26, 2011 9:49am

gregwilson
Joined Jan 2006 | Status: Greg Wilson | 734 Posts

Hi,

I think you've figured out the essence of this game, which is patience, waiting for a setup to show itself. That is certainly what it's come down to for me.

Over the last several days as an experiment, and because the market was in a narrow sideways trading range offering no opportunities for clear 100 pips, I made a few 20-30 pips trades. I had one loss, with a net of 60 plus pips. I paid more attention to the smaller time frames.

As I say, this was just an experiment because the market has been so slow, in part because we're still in the summer doldrums, in part due to consolidation or range area.

What I was waiting for though was a breakout from the range/consolidation--equal to (using a ruler) to the length of the consolidation area, approximately. That's where the action is. Trending Momentum= 100 pips opportunity, ideally between pivot points (support or resistance), or other support and resistance areas.

Good post.

Cheers,
Greg

#1,133
Aug 26, 2011 9:52am Aug 26, 2011 9:52am