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Why exactly do EMA crossover systems not work?

  • #141
  • Edited 1:56pm Jul 13, 2011 1:42pm | Edited 1:56pm
Any trend-following indicators/systems/EA's will fail in a ranging market. Just like any overbought-oversold oscillators would fail in a trending market.

The successful trading lies in recognizing WHEN the market is trending and when it's ranging BEFORE anyone else and then trade accordingly. Once you can do that, I guarantee you that you can become a millionaire in a month.

But so far, there is still NO reliable foolproof EA/system/method/indicators for detecting trending and ranging markets so that's why trading is hard. At least we are not aware of one. There might be one existing but whoever possess that method/system is NOT going to watch his/her profits going down the drain by sharing it with anybody. Hence we are all struggling...
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #142
  • Jul 13, 2011 2:01pm Jul 13, 2011 2:01pm
Quoting Fudomyo
After 2 years of talking with people here and on skype, every single senior trader I met personally had a day job, or blew up their account, or was a hobbiest.

every one.

not just half or 99%.

every single one.

2 fucking years.

In 2 years I have not met one single self sufficient full time trader on FF.

This is not a joke.

It may get me banned or whatever, but this is the truth.
I can understand you frustration. I have been here twice the time and can only name two persons who trade for a living.

FF have become kryptonite for fulltime traders for obvious reasons the past years. The same meaningless discussion about indicators showing black on white how far away 99% of forums participants really are.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #143
  • Jul 13, 2011 2:17pm Jul 13, 2011 2:17pm
Quoting Fudomyo

After 2 years of talking with people here and on skype, every single senior trader I met personally had a day job, or blew up their account, or was a hobbiest.

every one.

not just half or 99%.

every single one.
Well right off the bat, you are NOT going to be self-sufficient trading part-time. Trading is a full-time business. Period. Otherwise you get caught in a catch-22 situation. You can't become self-sufficien trading only part-time but when you are trading full-time, AT LEAST in the beginning, you won't become self-sufficient so you get scared and you go back to trading part-time but when you trade part-time, you don't become self-sufficient at all and on and on and on in the vicious cycle...

The key is you have to think of trading as a full-time business. You are either in it full-time all dedicated or don't go into it at all. When you are in it, you have to think of your losses as your investment. All businesses have losses for the first two or even three years and trading is no different.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #144
  • Jul 13, 2011 3:06pm Jul 13, 2011 3:06pm
Quoting GEfx
I spend most of my FF time in the TAF thread where I find a lot of very nice and hard working people. As for my experience here, I am astonished at the number of people who blow accounts, and who discuss the topic with a sense of pride. Outside of TAF, most everyone is confused (they tend to equate intellegence with a capacity to learn trading), angry (they tend to get in a lot of arguments), or are just too new to trading and don't understand what is in front of them. FYI, I am a full time forex trader but do not participate in chat groups or skype...
it's ok.

I understand this is a solitary profession.

and that it's a natural human tendency to seek community sometimes.

in the end, it only comes down to us individually. I'm fine with that, but I've never worked in such an isolated sphere where I don't have peers to bounce off of for such long periods of time.

maybe that's just the way it is. a form of zazen.


good trading to you as well.

  • #145
  • Jul 13, 2011 3:36pm Jul 13, 2011 3:36pm
Quoting Fudomyo
Yes.

Exactly.

But you can't teach or show people this.

it's an inherent trait.


FF is a hotbed of confusion inhabited by long term losers.

When I first came here, I thought I would find peers. Independant traders who were self sufficient, that I could exchange ideas with.

After 2 years of talking with people here and on skype, every single senior trader I met personally had a day job, or blew up their account, or was a hobbiest.

every one.

not just half or 99%.

every single one.

2 fucking years.

In 2 years...
Hello,

There are a couple of other fully self-sufficient traders that frequent this forum, mate, but not many at all. I still class myself in that category, although I find more and more of my focus and energies are now directed to looking after my young son than studying market news and chart data.

I, like many other experienced bods, find all of these debates futile and repetitive to the extreme and, quite frankly, can't be arsed with most of it any more, which is why my only visits to FF now mainly revolve around a "water cooler" thread, which you also frequent to share your fine musical tastes.

For the record, though, your posts are ones that I make an effort to read.

As I'm here, though, I'll give my answer to the questions posed. Yes, EMA crossover systems can work in certain market conditions and will provide, over a long time horizon, a positive expectancy, provided a sophisticated model is built around the use of the crossover as the entry signal.

There are some points to note, however, mainly that a system where the entries and exits are based purely on the crossover, and nothing else, will be unlikely to work over the long term. In strong trending markets, it will obviously catch a chunk of the move and make cash, but in more normalised markets one will bleed P&L employing such a crude method.

Therefore, I think, one needs to focus on a number of pairs for diversification purposes, then backtest a couple of t/f over a period of 5-10 years against each of these pairs to find out how, say, a 150 pips t/p against a 60 pips s/l would perform throughout this period, using the crossover for entry. Then one needs to do the same for a number of other profit/loss combinations, so a strong data sample is collated, comprising of thousands of trades ready for further analysis.

The next pieces in the puzzle are: to work out a quantifiable way in which one can filter out a chunk of the losing trades, which will also inevitably cost a few of the winning test deals; and to work out a system, linked to the prevailing volatility of the relevant pair, that pre-determines which risk parameters are best to be applied to the next signal received.

Like any quantitative system that has been rigorously back-tested, one of the main hurdles to its success will undoubtedly be the human element, you know, that nagging voice in your gut telling your brain why this particular won't work and should actually be ignored.
  • #146
  • Jul 13, 2011 3:49pm Jul 13, 2011 3:49pm
Quoting Fudomyo
Yes.

Exactly.

But you can't teach or show people this.

it's an inherent trait.


FF is a hotbed of confusion inhabited by long term losers.

When I first came here, I thought I would find peers. Independant traders who were self sufficient, that I could exchange ideas with.

After 2 years of talking with people here and on skype, every single senior trader I met personally had a day job, or blew up their account, or was a hobbiest.

every one.

not just half or 99%.

every single one.

2 fucking years.

In 2 years I have not met one single...

I had a post, not sent I guess!!

I agree with above, it's sad, but there is no bugger making money at this, most you think are good have lost there life saving and trading demo.

If they start spouting TA rules at you, just block them immediately they'll make 10 trades, profit on 2 and not tell you about the other 8.

People!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #147
  • Jul 13, 2011 4:03pm Jul 13, 2011 4:03pm
Quoting Fudomyo

A momentum indicator can remain oversold longer than you can remain solvent. That's not their purpose at all.

read again, that is what newbies think and tell others when they come on, I see you understand this bad practice, so I shall class it as an error.

I know how RSI works, math's wise and trading wise!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #148
  • Jul 13, 2011 4:03pm Jul 13, 2011 4:03pm
Quoting Fudomyo
it's ok.

I understand this is a solitary profession.

and that it's a natural human tendency to seek community sometimes.

in the end, it only comes down to us individually. I'm fine with that, but I've never worked in such an isolated sphere where I don't have peers to bounce off of for such long periods of time.

maybe that's just the way it is. a form of zazen.


good trading to you as well.

Yes I totally agree. I start each day at 2:30AM CST to catch London, and stay with the market through NY to about 11:00 AM CST. About 99% of that time involves me, my charts, the radio, my iPod, and the news. Very little human interaction, thus the tendency to look at FF from time to time. I enjoyed fti and his TAF thread, but he is now ill and not able to particpate much anymore. It is the price that we must pay to achieve success, and is well worth it. I've tried to do discussion groups and on-line chat sessions (non FF offerings) but they have little value since I tend to rely on my own analysis and not what other people are thinking (even though they are successful traders, too).

Reading back on what I just wrote makes this sound like some sad profession, but it is not. Quite the opposite. It's good to talk with you and best wishes.

Edit: One final note: why is it that so many people who are participating and reading this thread show up below as Invisible? Makes me wonder about their motives and what is really going on here. Just another frustrating thing about some of the people who use FF.
  • #149
  • Jul 13, 2011 4:08pm Jul 13, 2011 4:08pm
The issue with MA crosses is, how to filter out the chop which won't profit, any attempt to do so takes out the profits to.


As already said, market is either CHOP or TREND, both need different techniques and being on the wrong 1 most likely ='s losses, the issue is you trade CHOP and then a trend move comes out of know where, or your trading TREND and the trend moves you jump on stall and reverse and go for your SL.

I have tried for years on M1 to solve this issue, some things have worked for a month or 3 reaping big profits then they stop and doomed down the account goes.

M15 method straight off is working perfectly, which is some what annoying as a die hard M1er, but no doubt market conditions will change and doom me soon
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #150
  • Jul 13, 2011 4:24pm Jul 13, 2011 4:24pm
Quoting nubcake
finally! almost a decent question and not an uninformed opinion! confidence booster is, in a way, part of the situation. expectation booster is a better description. you don't go fishing for marlin in your 20L fish-tank filled with nothing but goldfish. that's a silly expectation and all you will get are goldfish. but people will fish for marlin in their fish tanks because they once saw some guy on tv throw a line into water and out came a big fish.

the fact that we have to battle the spread means we must, at all times, be in a favorable...

You managed a entire post without 1 personal attack, well done sir

I tried other peoples setups and rules and back tested them, some of the okay trades have and believe in all this indicators but when it came to making trade decisions they really wasn't looking at them.

They all came back to 50/50 so might aswell flip a coin, take the trade and deal with what comes you way after the event, which is what a lot of trading is about anyway, some people can / do make money of effectively flipping a coin, just need a good risk / reward ratio to make 50/50 profitable.

I have my advantage I'm happy, what I lack is the time to fully use it, I had it on M1 aswell but it's time consuming, just get the account going the right way then work piles on, trading gets forgotten for 6months then it's back to scratch, why I've moved to M15 and trade off phone.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #151
  • Jul 13, 2011 4:26pm Jul 13, 2011 4:26pm
Quoting GEfx
Edit: One final note: why is it that so many people who are participating and reading this thread show up below as Invisible? Makes me wonder about their motives and what is really going on here. Just another frustrating thing about some of the people who use FF.

Loads on here, invisible 3 of them with 10v+ so must of posted at some stage and been visible, ODD!!

Distraction is a killer, my phone always rings when it's entry or exit time and wrecks it, but my phone is pretty much constantly ringing damn work.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #152
  • Jul 14, 2011 12:22am Jul 14, 2011 12:22am
Quoting GEfx
Edit: One final note: why is it that so many people who are participating and reading this thread show up below as Invisible? Makes me wonder about their motives and what is really going on here. Just another frustrating thing about some of the people who use FF.
because we don't want you stalking us and seeing how hard we are studying brijon's magic of the 3mw of now. it's the same reason we close the toilet door when we do our business.

privacy.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #153
  • Edited 6:40am Jul 14, 2011 3:11am | Edited 6:40am
Quoting nubcake
it's the same reason we close the toilet door when we do our business.
My point exactly. "Invisible" makes it easy or comfortable for them to take a crap at unsuspecting threads. It shows a lack of character.
  • #154
  • Jul 14, 2011 3:49am Jul 14, 2011 3:49am
Quoting GEfx
My point exactly. "Invisible" makes it easy or comfortable for them to take a crap at unsuspecting threads. I guess the other reason is that they are cowards. Either way, it shows a lack of character.
can you see my name on this post? of course. can i see your name on yours? of course. there is nothing invisible about someone posting... as for browsing threads, what's it to you or anyone else who is and who isn't looking at something?

you are just being morally elitist or stalkerish and it's unjustified. "cowards"? if you want an open forum where everyone can see everything everyone else does then you need to build that forum. this isn't a hippie or nudist commune where everything is on show. should we all have available on request our entire browser history also? should everyone know what xxx sites i visit. of course not.

privacy is not equal to cowardice. you only need to read your taf thread to see plenty of privacy talk in there also. do you have issue there as you do here?

i'm reminded of the Aeon Flux episode "Utopia or Deuteranopia?".

anyway, off topic and pointless.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #155
  • Edited 6:39am Jul 14, 2011 4:12am | Edited 6:39am
My apologies to everyone here for my post regarding "invisible" particpants of FF threads. I do question the motives (ulterior or otherwise) of those who find it necessary to wander around FF in the invisible mode. However, contrary to a recent post here, I do not want to know anything more than who is participating in the threads I am reading. In that recent post, it is suggested that my concern is based on a desire to monitor your web site habits and monitor other aspects of your life. Please do not fall into his trap by following that form of (false) reasoning into some terrible argument. Please just skip it and get back to trading.
  • #156
  • Jul 14, 2011 4:19am Jul 14, 2011 4:19am
Quoting GEfx
My apologies to everyone here for my post regarding "invisible" particpants of FF threads. I do question the motives (ulterior or otherwise) of those who find it necessary to wander around FF in the invisible mode. However, contrary to a recent post here, I do not want to know anything more than who is participating in the threads I am reading. In that recent post, it is suggested that my concern is based on a desire to monitor your web site habits and monitor other aspects of your life. Please do not fall into his trap by following that form...
nice change of topic and it's interesting, do some people take everything way to seriously and blow a simple question into a something huge or what around here.

And NubCake, I see I once vouched for you, can't remember when though but scarey!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #157
  • Jul 14, 2011 4:20am Jul 14, 2011 4:20am
Hi Paul,

Good to see you.

I'm pretty much in the same boat with spending family time and trading (wouldn't have it any other way)

I agree with you on all points. I probably should have qualified my statement that most successful traders can't be arsed with the level of discussion here which is why they don't hang out.

Think I'm going to curtail my activities to the water cooler from here on out.

See you there


Quoting gammase1
Hello,

There are a couple of other fully self-sufficient traders that frequent this forum, mate, but not many at all. I still class myself in that category, although I find more and more of my focus and energies are now directed to looking after my young son than studying market news and chart data.

I, like many other experienced bods, find all of these debates futile and repetitive to the extreme and, quite frankly, can't be arsed with most of it any more, which is why my only visits to FF now mainly revolve around a "water cooler" thread,...
  • #158
  • Jul 14, 2011 4:34am Jul 14, 2011 4:34am
Quoting Turveyd
And NubCake, I see I once vouched for you, can't remember when though but scarey!!
probably because at some point in time you realized i wasn't full of shit, despite the insinuation by some that i am a "turd in the punchbowl".
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #159
  • Jul 14, 2011 4:47am Jul 14, 2011 4:47am
Quoting nubcake
probably because at some point in time you realized i wasn't full of shit, despite the insinuation by some that i am a "turd in the punchbowl".
Must of said something smart 2 years back, guess you got older and more turd in a punchbowl like

Standard BORED anything for a scrap mentality I'd bet.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #160
  • Jul 14, 2011 5:01am Jul 14, 2011 5:01am
Quoting Turveyd
Must of said something smart 2 years back, guess you got older and more turd in a punchbowl like

Standard BORED anything for a scrap mentality I'd bet.
yup.

i should just not bother arguing with people who simply won't know any better. i should just jump in the eu thread and make random calls for amusement instead and see how many sheep i can herd.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
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