USDCAD trend reversal? | Page 209 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

(False) Breakout & Trend Reversal Strategies?? 12 replies

Trend Reversal Confirmed? 0 replies

POLL- Trend Reversal or Retracement 0 replies

Are we close to TREND REVERSAL? 5 replies

Attachments: USDCAD trend reversal?
Exit Attachments

USDCAD trend reversal?

  • #4,161
  • Jul 8, 2011 4:28pm Jul 8, 2011 4:28pm
Quoting KillerWhale
"Betting" on a currency? I don't think that is a wise point of action.
That would make currency trading equal to gambling.
Let me tell you one thing, I used to go to casino's and had a lot of fun.
Since I discovered forex I've not been to a casino anymore, BECAUSE FOREX IS NOT BETTING.
I do think that we might end up getting a double bottom @ 0.9444 but we'll see. 0.9512 as target first?
My comment was more in jest than being serious. I do not gamble at this, I have a specific method and rules I adhere to.

and note I said "if"..

I still believe we will continue downwards, news is akin to noise.. makes a splash, muddys the waters and then typically the trend continues as it was. The daily chart is telling me we still are going down. Price has yet to really break .9580, if and when it does .9500 would be next followed by .9450.

I'm still short (.9875) with my TP set to .9475, profit locked in and just waiting

cheers
  • #4,162
  • Jul 8, 2011 5:03pm Jul 8, 2011 5:03pm
Quoting Cdawg
My comment was more in jest than being serious. I do not gamble at this, I have a specific method and rules I adhere to.

and note I said "if"..

I still believe we will continue downwards, news is akin to noise.. makes a splash, muddys the waters and then typically the trend continues as it was. The daily chart is telling me we still are going down. Price has yet to really break .9580, if and when it does .9500 would be next followed by .9450.

I'm still short (.9875) with my TP set to .9475, profit locked in and just waiting

cheers
Agreed, first target 0.9515, finally double bottom 0.9444 before reversal?

S
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #4,163
  • Jul 8, 2011 7:08pm Jul 8, 2011 7:08pm
While thinking about the implications of today's NFP came across this quote from Atlas Shrugged. Courtesy of Simon Black's Sovereign man.

"When you see that in order to produce, you need to get permission from men who produce nothing; when you see that money is flowing to those who deal not in goods, but in favors; when you see men get rich more easily by graft then by work, and your laws no longer protect you against them, but protect them against you,... you may know that your society is doomed."

The age of turmoil appears to be approaching and is no longer an out there viewpoint.

Euro/CHF keeps saying risk aversion, risk aversion.

The debt colossus looks more and more unstable to this person. Have to sleep on this a bit more, as am really not an alarmist at heart. But facts are facts.
  • #4,164
  • Jul 9, 2011 3:06am Jul 9, 2011 3:06am
http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=399

http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=397

http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=397

http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=396
  • #4,165
  • Jul 9, 2011 7:18am Jul 9, 2011 7:18am
Thoughts on a Saturday morning

In an effort to analyze confirming evidence for a continuance of risk aversion strategy theme in the markets. (market volatility frequently has frustrated this viewpoint)
The commodity currency pair AUD/NZD is worth the look.
Here we have an economy AUD heavily reliant upon mining products to fuel ballyhooed insatiable demand from the developing worlds industrial needs.

NZD is typically viewed as a farm product country.The charts show a downtrend in effect in this pair with recent daily price action testing the bottom of a channel or wedge depending upon the chartists lines.

The interpretation for this is that in times of economic slowdown food is more important then mines. Thus interest rate differentials which are primary drivers of market sentiment are favored to remain stronger in food staples providers
then industrial commodity providers.

Equity markets do this sort of thing as well when defensive stocks outperform growth stocks.
  • #4,166
  • Jul 9, 2011 5:44pm Jul 9, 2011 5:44pm
worth a read and free. Article by Bryan Rich

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/all-e...-weakens-45863

included in article a noteworthy statement by Fitch about implications of a slower growth rate in China of 5% on commodities.
  • #4,167
  • Jul 10, 2011 7:40pm Jul 10, 2011 7:40pm
Yo FOTO; spot on

a blog tonight ( "piponomics" @ babypips.com reiterated your B. Rich link).

Bearish bias suggested on charts for xx/CHF pairs except kiwi.-is your prev post influencing my perception?

U/CAD still looks down ( local real estate $$$$ still rising here & economics still
more +ve then south of 49th parallel). My thinkin' be that Aug 2nd be weighing on big $$$$$ minds.

946ish- triple bottom bounce or break?
  • #4,168
  • Jul 10, 2011 8:07pm Jul 10, 2011 8:07pm
Long Limit @ 0.9614.
  • #4,169
  • Jul 10, 2011 8:17pm Jul 10, 2011 8:17pm
blowing through the roofs at the beginning of this week. becareful all.

gl!
Attached Image
  • #4,170
  • Jul 10, 2011 8:19pm Jul 10, 2011 8:19pm
Quoting foto
The interpretation for this is that in times of economic slowdown food is more important then mines. Thus interest rate differentials which are primary drivers of market sentiment are favored to remain stronger in food staples providers
then industrial commodity providers.
Hey FOTO: deja vu wrt KIWI/CAD plus % rate difference may be a factor.

Watched a PBS show this evening with 3 investment advisers.
The theme that "stood out" to me was their collective advoidence to the
"what is your preference in stock sector strategy"? Each spoke of favouring the stronger stocks in each sector.

could be good for fx people to emulate.
As long as my greens > my reds; I am on the right track.

You can see the eventual shift from the Grasshoppers to the Ants.
  • #4,171
  • Jul 11, 2011 8:20am Jul 11, 2011 8:20am
incoming demand for CAD, will watch PA at support level for possible 1-2-3 setup, to short USDCAD

http://i52.tinypic.com/jjlmko.jpg
  • #4,172
  • Jul 11, 2011 11:59am Jul 11, 2011 11:59am
hmmm... not much bears around
  • #4,173
  • Jul 11, 2011 6:26pm Jul 11, 2011 6:26pm
Risk-off ruled today.

Dly has STO & MacD up(but< H2O)

$ hit 38.2% fib (06/27-07/8).

9733 is 50% & 50 ema Appears to be good target BUT depends on risk appetite.

Just staying on smaller TFs & playing flavour of the day gets green pips.
  • #4,174
  • Jul 11, 2011 7:01pm Jul 11, 2011 7:01pm
Quoting Astroman
Long Limit @ 0.9614.
Came close but never got filled.

Drats!
  • #4,175
  • Jul 11, 2011 7:24pm Jul 11, 2011 7:24pm
Hey Scarecru, what a day.

I sold AUD/USD tonite as the daily channel looked like it was breaking down. Most likely an unwise decision as selling AUD has consistently ended as a losing trade. But have to go with the charts.

Would expect to see some Euro support at these levels, but if it gives way then a really big move is on and we may see the 1.30 level.

I really cannot get a handle on USD/CAD as the hard working people of Canada keep pulling off a hat trick. But overall still remain bearish on commodities because of the ongoing debt crisis and contracting global money supply.

China still seems to me a house of cards sustained by hype. But have been wrong to date as to market reaction. Maybe reality is finally coming to global equity markets as stimulus is not real GDP. Just some numbers.

Keep up the good work and best of luck in your decisions.
  • #4,176
  • Jul 12, 2011 10:00pm Jul 12, 2011 10:00pm
http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=398

http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=397
  • #4,177
  • Jul 15, 2011 12:05am Jul 15, 2011 12:05am
http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=397
  • #4,178
  • Jul 16, 2011 12:41am Jul 16, 2011 12:41am
http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=398

http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=397

http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=398
  • #4,179
  • Jul 16, 2011 4:24am Jul 16, 2011 4:24am
Quoting clc4x
http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=398

http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=397

http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=398
No clue what all your abbreviations mean ....rtt pat
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #4,180
  • Jul 16, 2011 10:24am Jul 16, 2011 10:24am
RTT - retracement trend trading
PAT - price action trading
0 traders viewing now