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Trading Price Pivots

  • #441
  • Jul 11, 2011 12:54pm Jul 11, 2011 12:54pm
chanalb
  • #442
  • Jul 11, 2011 5:09pm Jul 11, 2011 5:09pm
Quoting Chantalb
Here is what I am looking for
Hi Chantalb

Just got up, drinking my tea, coffee is not good for trading.

I think your analysis on audusd is perfect.

What I am not sure about is the timing. Sentiment in forex is everything, they shift day bay day. If and once the prices reaches the "orange zone" for a possible buy you also need to get in sync with the market, do not rely only on "set ups". Yes they help, but they are not important as "feel the market".

Now, if prices get to the "orange zone" I would have made already and secure my profit and if they do not bounce the better.

Reason for my short entry:
On the 4 HTF prices bounce from a DTL and from 61.8 AB (that is good, confluences)
On the 1 HTF prices broke a TD UTL and then pull back toward it forming an bearish engulfing pattern and a protective stop above that TD UTL is placed to protect my "culo" (I do not know how to say that in German).

Now finally and most important is that previous to my entry there was a lower number on the home loans release and my feel for the market was that the big guys would sell some aud and there were signs that usd was gaining a bit of strength.

Will I be right? Probably not, is not easy the get a feel of the market, that why I do not drink coffee, but is the only way I know.

I hope it helps.

Your friend, IL BRIGANTE.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd 4 H.jpg Size: 100 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: aud usd 1H.jpg Size: 87 KB
  • #443
  • Jul 11, 2011 6:39pm Jul 11, 2011 6:39pm
Quoting il brigante
Hi Chantalb

Just got up, drinking my tea, coffee is not good for trading.
I hope it helps.
Your friend, IL BRIGANTE.
Very nice and refreshing analysis IB thank you....
NZDUSD broke down prematurely and took out my 4hr fractal anchor ...
oh well, I'll wait for a retrace. All this spells "bed time"...
Good night guys

PS: I will take that Tea tip and work it
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nu.gif Size: 33 KB
  • #444
  • Jul 11, 2011 7:03pm Jul 11, 2011 7:03pm
You were absolutely right on nzdusd, maybe 4 hour is too large for entry, one hour is better, sometime you need to scale down to 15 or even 5 minutes TF.

What is important is were you place your stop loss, you need to place were is difficult to get back there, that is why confluences are important.

See attached pic on the 30 TF.

Also remember that is easier to be a professor after the facts.

IB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusd 30m.jpg Size: 55 KB
  • #445
  • Jul 11, 2011 7:11pm Jul 11, 2011 7:11pm
Here is what I see as potential entries for this week. And Profirio and IB were right on when they said that if price only retraces to 23% then the move is a very strong one. So with all that heat Europe is taking the below chart is what we may have.
What do you guys think?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 46 KB
  • #446
  • Jul 11, 2011 7:19pm Jul 11, 2011 7:19pm
Quoting il brigante
You were absolutely right on nzdusd, maybe 4 hour is too large for entry, one hour is better, sometime you need to scale down to 15 or even 5 minutes TF.

What is important is were you place your stop loss, you need to place were is difficult to get back there, that is why confluences are important.

IB
hmmm you are very right... In the past I got my neck handed to me very often on lower TFs (below 30m), this is why I try to stick to higher ones. But I am all eyes with your suggestions. I think you are gonna have a fit when you see where I intend to have my stop on EU
  • #447
  • Jul 11, 2011 7:37pm Jul 11, 2011 7:37pm
Quoting Chantalb
Here is what I see as potential entries for this week. And Profirio and IB were right on when they said that if price only retraces to 23% then the move is a very strong one. So with all that heat Europe is taking the below chart is what we may have.
What do you guys think?
Yes you are right, but we need to consider the sentiment of the market when the pull back occurs.

Now, on eurusd the was money to be made, but often we get prisoner of our own conviction, that is me included.

It was screaming and telling me there were free money.
The daily chart was showing an important break of the daily UTL, sentiment was huge, those bloody Italians messed it up once again, everybody was selling.

On the 1h TF is clear were we should have entered and were we should have
protected our "culo" but I did not because I was not in sync and because my "set up" was not showing there.


IB
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.jpg Size: 54 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd 1H.jpg Size: 61 KB
  • #448
  • Jul 12, 2011 12:54am Jul 12, 2011 12:54am
Chantalb,

I just finished reading your thread and must say this is the best one in FF IMO. Thank you for sharing this wonderful system with us and hope to learn and grasp as much as I can. I am not an advanced trader so hope you don't mind if I ask a question here and there. I pretty much understand the basics of how the system works. Now when it comes to drawing trend lines on different TF, seeing the market more clearly, and deciding to wait for a retracement or not is where the practice comes in.

There is one thing I didn't understand and is really puzzling me if you don't mind explaining to me, maybe on the chart. On post #438 you stated "on condition that we get a confirmed fractal where the TL is anchored." You kinda lost me there, and not sure what trend line is anchored means. From my understanding of a fractal, there has to be 1-2 candles to the left and right with HL or LH.....so kinda puzzled there

Thank you very much in advance.

Regards,
Fly
  • #449
  • Jul 12, 2011 2:41am Jul 12, 2011 2:41am
Quoting il brigante
Yes you are right, but we need to consider the sentiment of the market when the pull back occurs.

Now, on eurusd the was money to be made, but often we get prisoner of our own conviction, that is me included.

It was screaming and telling me there were free money.
The daily chart was showing an important break of the daily UTL, sentiment was huge, those bloody Italians messed it up once again, everybody was selling.

On the 1h TF is clear were we should have entered and were we should have
protected our "culo" but I did not because I was not...
Looks like all the moves are already underway... I found two setups but I am kinda hesitant with all the dollar strength. Waiting on convincing price action. One is W1 USDCAD and the other is W1 & D1 USDCHF. The later show clear hidden divergence on D1, so I would keep a short bias untill a clear break of 0.85000 happens. On the H1 chart of USDCHF, the blue fibs are for a W1 up move and the red are for D1 down move.

Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad 4hr on w1.gif Size: 45 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf w1up d1down.gif Size: 43 KB
  • #450
  • Jul 12, 2011 3:06am Jul 12, 2011 3:06am
Quoting Fly Low
Chantalb,
There is one thing I didn't understand and is really puzzling me if you don't mind explaining to me, maybe on the chart. On post #438 you stated "on condition that we get a confirmed fractal where the TL is anchored." You kinda lost me there, and not sure what trend line is anchored means. From my understanding of a fractal, there has to be 1-2 candles to the left and right with HL or LH.....so kinda puzzled there...
Hi Fly,
Welcome to the thread and thank you for your kind words.
Fractals are said to be confirmed and locked in once the fifth candle closes without the second candle on the right of the fractal taking out the low (in the case of a Pivot Low) or the high (in case of a pivot high) of the fractal. If you look at the chart of NSDUSD, we had a fractal that appeared right where I had put that hypothetical anchor just as the fourth candle closed. But it got taken out on the second candle on the right of the fractal, hence the fractal disappeared. A fractal formation is made up of five candles, two to the left and two to the right of the fractal. So when you want to place a TL you do that on confirmed points of support or resistance i.e. confirmed fractal formations.
If you look at a 5min chart for example you will better understand how a fractal that gets formed on the fourth can disappear on the fifth.
Hope this helps,
Chantal
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nu-fly.gif Size: 29 KB
  • #451
  • Jul 12, 2011 8:12am Jul 12, 2011 8:12am
I am not sure whether I am really seeing this or I am form fitting it. But here goes, please be patient as I am posting 6 charts… They are self explanatory except for the green highlighted area where I think price didn’t go deep enough. Please share your thoughts and I would be very glad to be corrected.
The first chart shows what I am looking at.
The second shows 1-2 retracement.
The third shows 1-2-3 retracement.
The fourth shows 3-4 retracement.
And finally the fifth & sixth have all of the above…
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-ew5.gif Size: 39 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-1fib.gif Size: 40 KB
  • #452
  • Jul 12, 2011 8:14am Jul 12, 2011 8:14am
Charts 3 & 4
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-123fib.gif Size: 40 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-34fib.gif Size: 40 KB
  • #453
  • Jul 12, 2011 8:18am Jul 12, 2011 8:18am
Chart 5 and 6
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-w all fib.gif Size: 41 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-d all fib.gif Size: 43 KB
  • #454
  • Jul 12, 2011 10:08am Jul 12, 2011 10:08am
I took this one at 9GMT, so far so good. This trade was off the W1 pivot high, 4hr view and 30min entry. It’s a good thing I did not wait to take it off the H1 because that 9GMT bullish pin bar would have made me avoid it altogether or maybe got in after the 11GMT bearish engulfing. SL is 60 pips from entry.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad 4h.gif Size: 46 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad 30m entry.gif Size: 30 KB
  • #455
  • Jul 12, 2011 4:05pm Jul 12, 2011 4:05pm
hi chantab

I do not think that the euro recovers

in the monthly chart also begins to fall
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: e-u...w1-m-w.gif Size: 36 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: e-u...w1-m.gif Size: 33 KB
  • #456
  • Jul 12, 2011 5:15pm Jul 12, 2011 5:15pm
Stopped out in audusd, made 65 pips, I was risking 43. 1.45 % return of my capital.

My first trade of the week, no bad, I was hoping for more, but we can only make what the market is willing to give.

IB
  • #457
  • Jul 12, 2011 5:23pm Jul 12, 2011 5:23pm
Quoting Chantalb
I took this one at 9GMT, so far so good. This trade was off the W1 pivot high, 4hr view and 30min entry. It’s a good thing I did not wait to take it off the H1 because that 9GMT bullish pin bar would have made me avoid it altogether or maybe got in after the 11GMT bearish engulfing. SL is 60 pips from entry.
Good entry, by now you should already have gained you risk.

IB
  • #458
  • Jul 12, 2011 5:32pm Jul 12, 2011 5:32pm
hello friend

the next entry test to do two lots ... and let it run the second
  • #459
  • Jul 12, 2011 6:01pm Jul 12, 2011 6:01pm
Quoting Chantalb
Chart 5 and 6
I am not sure about eurusd yet, yes the eur is gaining a bit and the usd is weakening across the board, on the 4 h we have a nice engulfing and BRP formed, but that is the only support I can see. Prices have not got to the weekly UTL and retracement is at 50% only.

Maybe if prices get back to test the previous low forming a Double bottom then we can draw a UTL on the 4h TF and a probable bullish divergence. (3 confluences)

The best would be that price get to the weekly UTL, then we would have that important support, plus 61.8 and 1.27 fibo level, and a probable bullish divergence with a bullish reversal pattern.(5 confluences)

This is what I think. Hey, do not forget the feel for the market. Best is to place our money where the big guys are pushing.

IB
  • #460
  • Edited 5:21am Jul 13, 2011 4:46am | Edited 5:21am
Possible short entry based on monthly PP and confluence with round #, PPZ and fib

EDIT: Took it off this 5min chart based on PA and after the bearish engulfing/twin formation. Haven't figured out a stop for it yet...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-s-ppm.gif Size: 44 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-s-ppm-5min.gif Size: 31 KB
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