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Newbie's Journal

  • #1
  • First Post: Jul 11, 2011 9:48pm Jul 11, 2011 9:48pm
Hey guys, I am very new to Forex, I have only 3 months trading experience and want to start a journal here as a record.

Trading is all about emotion control, discipline, patience.
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #2
  • Jul 11, 2011 9:52pm Jul 11, 2011 9:52pm
Some of my thoughts today:

since we have finally break the bottom of the daily triangle...for the rest of the week we may expect some more downward movement...

1st chart is a weekly chart shows we might be in a downward channel and next area we find support maybe the rising trendline from April 2010..

2nd chart is the daily chart which will make this a bit more clear, we may find support at around 1.3690 - 1.3700 area as shown on the chart...

the 3rd chart also shows that area might provide some support since it is 61.8% fibbo since Jan...

Regards,

John
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Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #3
  • Jul 12, 2011 2:04am Jul 12, 2011 2:04am
Good luck with the journal, mate!
Trends, breakouts, price action.
  • #4
  • Jul 13, 2011 4:37am Jul 13, 2011 4:37am
Quoting aizazk
Good luck with the journal, mate!
thankyou green pips to you
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #5
  • Edited 7:00am Jul 13, 2011 4:49am | Edited 7:00am
Yesterday Euro has bounced from 1.3844, possible a bear flag forming..as you can see in chart no.1.

entered long @ 1.3988 as shown at chart no.2, PA unable to break the channel. target @ 1.4510, 38.2 retracement from 1.4575. (edit: should be 1.4551)

However closed @ 1.4080, 92 pips+, slightly above daily r1....

Next step..looking to load shorts @ around 1.4505-15..where 38.2% retracement at. However tight sl, as nothing is impossible in forex
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Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #6
  • Jul 13, 2011 6:56am Jul 13, 2011 6:56am
thoughts here:

Since I have missed the entry @ 4108 (38.2% retracement)...I have took a short break...

I am kind of flat at this point of time..since we are in the middle of channel, and we have Bernanke's testify in 2 hours.

Technically speaking...we are unable to break 1.4050 level...Bear should be caution here as seems pretty strong support here...

I will have 2 plan here:

1. wait until it break my bear flag...which is around 1.4020-30, Short.
2. If PA set to retest 1.4100 level..it is likely to test 1.4198 in the next 2 hours, 50% retracement from 1.4551, also the top of my channel. Short.
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Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #7
  • Jul 13, 2011 7:58pm Jul 13, 2011 7:58pm
Yesterday I have predicted it will touched 1.4190 area (50% retrace) in 2 hours. I have placed a sell limit there before I went to bed as it is 50% retrace and also the top of my channel...

However, PA only reached 1.4189 and was around 2 hours after my prediction.....

anyways, we have reached 1.4279 (61.8% retrace) this morning(well actually afternoon). not beside my lap top when PA reached the top...so I entered short @ 61, the highest I can get when I turn on my computer...
as shown in the chart... PA didnt confirmed a break of the channel so as the 61.8 retracement...
It may probably the end of the retracement...
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Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #8
  • Jul 14, 2011 2:30am Jul 14, 2011 2:30am
Update:

Daily Chart, fall since last Monday was very strong and left all my MA fall behind...retracement since 12th of July pushed PA back to position where all my MA locates.
as stated before, we probably playing in a downward channel as now lower high and lowe low formed...

at this moment I am flat..movement London session today may give us direction for the rest of the week

for Bull, the question is whether 1.3837 the bottom of the current down trend?~as PA now raise more than 400 pips.. and PA has meet target of setting a lower low.. likely we will have some further up...1.45 in Friday might be a good target for bull...

for bear, as stated in my previous post, 1.37 is the 61.8 retracement and place where my rising trendline and down of downward channel meet, still a nice target for bear in Friday..

second chart is the 15m chart, let see the reaction of PA towards the bottom of channel line....
1.4160-70 area is important here....

(edit 7:28pm: sell closed @ 1.4211 50+...Bear do not convince me here...pocketed profit and wait for next chance)
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Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #9
  • Jul 14, 2011 9:28pm Jul 14, 2011 9:28pm
As shown in the chart...we have finally left the rising channel (or you can call it a bear flag)...However we have entered a downward channel.....
before tonight London, probably some consolidation is needed here...
I have tried to short this pair @ 1.4184...tight sl 10 pips...
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Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #10
  • Jul 14, 2011 11:16pm Jul 14, 2011 11:16pm
Hi John,

The way I see it is the range for the week has been 417 pips ATR 14= 314 ATR 50 =312 not much difference, what are the odds this week will close up outside the weekly ATR? I dont know.

We are just above the weekly piviot point and on the daily opened just below the daily PP, the daily also yesterday was a small candle and small candles are followed by big candles and visa versa.

The hourly seems to offer the best clue about short term intentions with a rising wedge, indicating a test and rejection of lower lows but awaiting a break out, I suspect this will happen, but at this stage cannot see it being sustained untill the end of the trading day.

I am long and have been since yesterday and will putting on a BE stop as soon as practicle, or eating my peas and taking ate loss at the predetermined SL.

Regards Allan.
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  • #11
  • Jul 16, 2011 2:26am Jul 16, 2011 2:26am
And stopped out with the big ones, 0.40 and .30 stoped out at 1.6077 having raised the stop intra day long at 6186 and 6175....

that smell is smoke is comeing off my account......http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif
  • #12
  • Jul 16, 2011 10:06pm Jul 16, 2011 10:06pm
Quoting johncen
As shown in the chart...we have finally left the rising channel (or you can call it a bear flag)...However we have entered a downward channel.....
before tonight London, probably some consolidation is needed here...
I have tried to short this pair @ 1.4184...tight sl 10 pips...
Late update here....
my short closed half an hour after London open @ 1.4099...
with 85+...
that is the only trade I have took in Friday...and end my week nicely...

~
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #13
  • Jul 16, 2011 10:07pm Jul 16, 2011 10:07pm
Quoting qp2
And stopped out with the big ones, 0.40 and .30 stoped out at 1.6077 having raised the stop intra day long at 6186 and 6175....

that smell is smoke is comeing off my account......http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif
Friday is always weird.....
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #14
  • Jul 17, 2011 7:44pm Jul 17, 2011 7:44pm
HI John,

This is my small account here I have not been stopped out on the long, the trade appears to have a small RR ration but there is a reason I have it here, it is called hope and pray.

the outside chanell is the weekly down trend technically at a high awaiting a retracement the other down trend line is a recient daily down trend broken by the up bar following the rapid rejection of the bottom of the monthly chanell.

The last 3 daily down bars, are they a bullish flag?

The way I see it if I was out I would stay out as there appears to me, please correct me if I am wrong, no trade oportunity that is screaming long or short, as I am in long I am hoping and praying long, it seems at present as good as any, or 50/50?

will tell you for sure tomorrow.
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  • #15
  • Jul 17, 2011 8:14pm Jul 17, 2011 8:14pm
Hello, it is another Monday and we have a gap here again...
We have some downward movement here in Monday morning....

Daily speaking (chart 1), probably some more downward movement this week.... where we close today might be essential...

30m chart, I have tried small long @ the bottom of blue channel line @68, exit @ BE...Will try some more @ the red trendline...
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Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #16
  • Jul 17, 2011 8:16pm Jul 17, 2011 8:16pm
Quoting qp2
HI John,

This is my small account here I have not been stopped out on the long, the trade appears to have a small RR ration but there is a reason I have it here, it is called hope and pray.

the outside chanell is the weekly down trend technically at a high awaiting a retracement the other down trend line is a recient daily down trend broken by the up bar following the rapid rejection of the bottom of the monthly chanell.

The last 3 daily down bars, are they a bullish flag?

The way I see it if I was out I would stay out as there appears...
I agreed it looks like a bull flag to me too.....
good luck n green pips to you
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #17
  • Jul 17, 2011 8:27pm Jul 17, 2011 8:27pm
Hi John,

Further to your E U anaylisis is has also opened below the daily PP the GBP USD opened at the PP or just below it depending on broker.

With the flag on the GBP USD, I feel it is contridicted by other factors, one of them being USDX and the other XXX USD pairs the EU being one mostly where the EUR USD goes the other pairs GBP USD, AUD USD etc go also.

The Tokyo market is closed today and we have a lot of volitility, I do not disagree with your observations but other factors are keeping me out, in other words I have never lost money by keeping out.

My trading history tells me Mondays are hard days to beat the market.

Happy trading
  • #18
  • Jul 18, 2011 1:32pm Jul 18, 2011 1:32pm
Quote
hope and pray

stopped out I suck at hopeing and praying
  • #19
  • Jul 18, 2011 8:03pm Jul 18, 2011 8:03pm
as shown in the chart....
I have tried small short @ 4125...with tight sl again 15 pips just above previous high

last hour close shows we may have some downward movement as bull seems exhausted here...

had entered short a bit early @ 4115 exit with 15-....
hmmmmm I am a bit too rush here..should wait for more confirmation
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Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #20
  • Jul 18, 2011 8:06pm Jul 18, 2011 8:06pm
Quoting qp2
stopped out I suck at hopeing and praying
is it due to the big strike down??
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
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